Will we hit 4k?? (1 Viewer)

[Renae]

In less than two months (October 6, 2016) it will be 4,000 days since the last time a major hurricane made landfall in the U.S., which was Wilma on October 24, 2005.Wilma was a record-setter, being the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, with peak estimated sustained winds of 183 mph and lowest surface pressure of 882 mb. That surface preesure corresponds to a 13% removal of atmospheric mass in the core of the hurricane compared to normal sea level pressure.
But after the record-setting 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, with a whopping 27 named tropical storms, the bottom pretty much dropped out of hurricane activity since then.

Will We Reach 4,000 Days Since a Major Hurricane Strike? « Roy Spencer, PhD

Folks, after 11 years of run away AGW/Climate Change/yearly record setting heat....

We're about to hit a milestone of epic proportions. 4,000 days between Cat 3 or great hurricane strikes on North America.

Oh eventually, warming, cooling or neither the Atlantic will reach a burst point and we'll have seriously terrible season, hell it could be THIS season... that's just the odds.

But right now... today, Aug 9th 2016 we're looking at this:

 

[Tim the plumber]

It must be so frustrating for the doomsayers that the world just will not do what they so desperately want it to.

 

[Deuce]

Cat 3 landfall in a particular region is an oddly specific metric.

 

[longview]

Cat 3 landfall in a particular region is an oddly specific metric.

It is cat 3, cat 4, or cat 5, for the continental US, not that specific.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_hurricanes
Historically, I think the US get at least 1, cat 3 or greater storm every two years.

 

[jmotivator]

Cat 3 landfall in a particular region is an oddly specific metric.

Indeed....

 

[Deuce]

It is cat 3, cat 4, or cat 5, for the continental US, not that specific.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_hurricanes
Historically, I think the US get at least 1, cat 3 or greater storm every two years.

Uhh, yeah, actually, that's really specific. A storm that stays over the ocean is still a storm.

 

[longview]

Uhh, yeah, actually, that's really specific. A storm that stays over the ocean is still a storm.

We are not talking about fish storms, but actual landfall, and the past decade, US landfall has been very quiet for major storms,(cat 3+).

 

[Deuce]

We are not talking about fish storms, but actual landfall, and the past decade, US landfall has been very quiet for major storms,(cat 3+).

Ok. And?

 

[longview]

Ok. And?

And nothing, that is all the original OP was saying,
That for roughly the last decade, no major hurricanes (defined as category 3 or greater)
to make landfall in the continental US.
A period that long with a major storm making landfall, is very unusual.

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

We are not talking about fish storms, but actual landfall, and the past decade, US landfall has been very quiet for major storms,(cat 3+).

I wonder if sun spots have any thing to do with it. I think we are in a period of minor sunspot activity. I am not talking about the normal 11 year cycle. Even that was a year late. It seems we are in a 100 year low as far as sun spots go. I know we only have 400 years of data. I guess we would know a lot more if we were not missing 4,500,000,000 years of observation.

 

[longview]

I wonder if sun spots have any thing to do with it. I think we are in a period of minor sunspot activity. I am not talking about the normal 11 year cycle. Even that was a year late. It seems we are in a 100 year low as far as sun spots go. I know we only have 400 years of data. I guess we would know a lot more if we were not missing 4,500,000,000 years of observation.

There are a lot of unknowns, the Pacific storms do not appear the have reduced any, so this may just be an Atlantic thing.

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

There are a lot of unknowns, the Pacific storms do not appear the have reduced any, so this may just be an Atlantic thing.

It is strange considering the 20 years of warm weather we have had. Usually the warm water would strengthen storms increasing the number of hits above cat 3. That is the theory behind global warming. There would be more storms of a higher category. Maybe the know it all will find out there are a lot more factors to the problem that are yet to be discovered in the next million or billion years.

 

[Jack Hays]

Forecasting / hurricanes
[h=1]NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season still expected to be strongest since 2012[/h]Forecasters now expect 70-percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms In its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, NOAA calls for a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent, from the initial outlook issued in May. The season is still expected…