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Will Trump be easy to beat in 2020?

Will Trump be easy to beat in 2020?

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Josie

Josie

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Do you think Trump will be easy to beat in 2020 or will it be a tough road? Any Democratic candidate that you think would wipe the floor with him? Any Democratic candidate that you think can't beat him?
 
It is easy but that doesn't mean it will happen.
 
This one will be about how much regular voters are utterly repelled by Trumpism vs how motivated his cult is. So no, I don't think that defeating him in 2020 will be "easy."
 
Josie said:
Do you think Trump will be easy to beat in 2020 or will it be a tough road? Any Democratic candidate that you think would wipe the floor with him? Any Democratic candidate that you think can't beat him?
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No, he won't be easy. History has shown the incumbent to always have immediately the upper hand in their re-election bid. They don't have to primary themselves so they just have to sit back and wait for the other side to get done with their primaries. Also, they have been rallying and getting their cash in early as the "almost-guaranteed" nominee for their party.

Even with the best Dem candidate, the incumbent always has the upper hand to start with.
 
However easy it should be, it'll be harder than that.

It would be a bad move for the Democrats (or anyone) to wander into it with the attitude that the job is theirs for the taking. They need push better policy, and make better arguments.

I have great faith in their ability to screw it up.
 
In my opinion, Trump is very easy to beat. I just don't have much confidence in the Democrats nominating someone who can rally their base into coming out in droves in November. I might be wrong, though.
 
Josie said:
Do you think Trump will be easy to beat in 2020 or will it be a tough road? Any Democratic candidate that you think would wipe the floor with him? Any Democratic candidate that you think can't beat him?
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Incumbency has a lot of advantages, but in spite of that Trump has never let up on getting things done. Where I sit, even if many things are misguided he has a knack for knowing where middle class America wants to go. Most of America is not where DP is. They are pretty much watching their tongue so as to not get flamed. It reminds me of the military. Everyone hates the general. Until they start winning.

I find it a tough argument to turn your back on prosperity to return to the hopeless stagnation of the Obama era.

What is being offered by democrats:
Medicare for all... AKA MediCAID - the great averaging of medical care. Downward for the middle class.
Tax the rich. Been there, done that. There is not all that much money there. The money is in a prosperous economy on business and the middle class
Reparations... pogy bait, used over and over and downright insulting to blacks.
Taking the side of illegal immigrants over citizens.
Allow the the social fabric of blue cities to unravel... Detroit, SF, LA, California in general.

All they have are two weak candidates - Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. Bernie has weak national appeal, Biden is going to be dox'ed into oblivion over influence peddling and contracts funneled though his family.
 
ecofarm said:
It is easy but that doesn't mean it will happen.
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It can be easy, but Democrats are remarkable when it comes to taking policies that are inherently popular with the majority of the country and making them appear to be unpopular. Not quite sure how they do it, but they're consistent. That said, one really can't overstate the Fox News effect, either.

Obama's campaign dominated at modern techniques for reaching his voters, but Republicans learned from him and pulled ahead. Already, the Trump campaign is targeting age 55+ voters on Facebook, and Democrats aren't doing jacksquat.
 
Cardinal said:
It can be easy, but Democrats are remarkable when it comes to taking policies that are inherently popular with the majority of the country and making them appear to be unpopular. Not quite sure how they do it, but they're consistent. That said, one really can't overstate the Fox News effect, either.

Obama's campaign dominated at modern techniques for reaching his voters, but Republicans learned from him and pulled ahead. Already, the Trump campaign is targeting age 55+ voters on Facebook, and Democrats aren't doing jacksquat.
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I see some Dems, "this is our chance to go radical, really strike back!" Now, personally, I really like that plan. Aggro counter strikes ftw. Politically, it's idiotic. They can put any vanilla no one up there and win. Still, Bernie and Biden are pretty uninspiring lurches. And either one could step in it.
 
Josie said:
Do you think Trump will be easy to beat in 2020 or will it be a tough road? Any Democratic candidate that you think would wipe the floor with him? Any Democratic candidate that you think can't beat him?
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Way too early to predict this IMO
 
ecofarm said:
I see some Dems, "this is our chance to go radical, really strike back!" Now, personally, I really like that plan. Aggro counter strikes ftw. Politically, it's idiotic. They can put any vanilla no one up there and win. Still, Bernie and Biden are pretty uninspiring lurches. And either one could step in it.
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What we may be seeing is an attempt to reverse decades of milquetoast attitudes from Democratic candidates. In 1984 (if I recall the date correctly) Reagan accused Mondale of being "liberal," and Democrats spent the next 30 years shrinking from that label. Trump broke something loose in the Democratic Party, and now Democrats are owning that label and their policies proudly. By historical contrast, I can understand how that might appear to be "radical," but I disagree that it is.
 
Josie said:
Do you think Trump will be easy to beat in 2020 or will it be a tough road? Any Democratic candidate that you think would wipe the floor with him? Any Democratic candidate that you think can't beat him?
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It won't be easy to beat him, but the Dems, the Trump haters and the multimedia echo chamber will try very hard...and they might succeed.

Don't worry about the Dem candidate. For one thing, the DNC will tell you who the candidate will be. But it doesn't matter who it is, that person won't be the one who beats Trump. It'll be the combined and coordinated efforts of those I already mentioned.

The Dems could run a person with cerebral palsey...and maybe beat Trump.

And any notion that the Dems could rebel against the DNC...ala 2016 Republicans...is a fantasy. It won't happen.
 
Cardinal said:
What we may be seeing is an attempt to reverse decades of milquetoast attitudes from Democratic candidates. In 1984 (if I recall the date correctly) Reagan accused Mondale of being "liberal," and Democrats spent the next 30 years shrinking from that label. Trump broke something loose in the Democratic Party, and now Democrats are owning that label and their policies proudly. By historical contrast, I can understand how that might appear to be "radical," but I disagree that it is.
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When I speak of some Dems wanting to go radical, I mean Dems that want to elect a political firecracker that will push the most fringe proposals of the party. Dems that want to go for the kill, to virtually end conservative politics as we know it. A counter surge to bury the bigots.

Sounds great, if one is a Dem (I have economic and foreign policy concerns). But I think they should go vanilla and avoid risk.
 
Josie said:
Do you think Trump will be easy to beat in 2020 or will it be a tough road? Any Democratic candidate that you think would wipe the floor with him? Any Democratic candidate that you think can't beat him?
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It all depends on whom the Democrats nominate. If the Democrats nominate someone who is capable of attracting independents, Trump will go down in a landslide. If not, Trump could win a second term. That was Hillary's problem in 2016, she didn't attract the independent voter. In fact independents disliked her a whole lot more than they did Trump, thus putting Trump into the White House. 27% of independents viewed Hillary favorably, 70% unfavorably vs. 40% who view Trump favorably, 57% unfavorably. Questions 10 and 11.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

As of today, I see 4 announced Democratic candidates that would probably lose the independent vote to Trump. Of course that is as of today and how independents view the candidates changes. It is dynamic. The good news is the Democrats are still the larger party of the two. But the Democratic base can't do it alone. They need to win their share of independents or another 2016 is possible. 2020 is an election for the Democrats to lose, but so too was 2016.

My question to the Democrats is did they learn that candidates matter from 2016 or will they repeat their same mistake come 2020. Trump in my view can't win it, but the Democrats could lose it with the wrong candidate. Like it or not, independents usually decide national or presidential elections.
 
Mycroft said:
It won't be easy to beat him, but the Dems, the Trump haters and the multimedia echo chamber will try very hard...and they might succeed.

Don't worry about the Dem candidate. For one thing, the DNC will tell you who the candidate will be. But it doesn't matter who it is, that person won't be the one who beats Trump. It'll be the combined and coordinated efforts of those I already mentioned.

The Dems could run a person with cerebral palsey...and maybe beat Trump.

And any notion that the Dems could rebel against the DNC...ala 2016 Republicans...is a fantasy. It won't happen.
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What the heck?
 
Josie said:
Do you think Trump will be easy to beat in 2020 or will it be a tough road? Any Democratic candidate that you think would wipe the floor with him? Any Democratic candidate that you think can't beat him?
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Absolutely NOT!!!

We Democrats have what I fear is an insurmountable task if we wish to unseat Donald Trump.

I have already resigned myself to 4-More Years.

We know the MSM can't stop him, in fact the more reporting they do, for him, only consolidates his position with the base support he has and tends, I feel, to make middle road folks in the electorate feel sorry and or compassion for him.

The Democratic hierarchy can't wing on a message of "no Trump". They need a message that eclipses anything Trump might proffer in capturing the electorate in greater numbers than Hillary drew, but more importantly in those States where the popular vote is of the utmost importance to the electoral college.

Trump received 62.8 million votes in 2016. I can't see any major defections from those who voted for him then. A few, but minuscule numbers of those.

I have said it before, if unemployment stays low, if the market stays high, if we do not have any huge crisis occur between now and November of 2020 Donald Trump will walk away with the election.

Mind you I don't make that pronouncement as any signal that our Democratic candidates should give up, or that I feel my newly adopted party is Doomed, no, just the opposite.

I am tickled pink to see such a broad field already up and running on the Left, it is exciting, and I know the days of the good ol'boys in D.C. are a changing. So I am optimistic about the DNC's future.
 
ecofarm said:
When I speak of some Dems wanting to go radical, I mean Dems that want to elect a political firecracker that will push the most fringe proposals of the party. Dems that want to go for the kill, to virtually end conservative politics as we know it. A counter surge to bury the bigots.

Sounds great, if one is a Dem (I have economic and foreign policy concerns). But I think they should go vanilla and avoid risk.
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I agree that reparations is radical, but that's pretty fringe for now. Their attitudes on taxation, health care, worker protections and environmentalism, however, are popular among the general public, and yet Democrats have often been reticent to embrace them wholly, up until now.
 
Cardinal said:
I agree that reparations is radical, but that's pretty fringe for now. Their attitudes on taxation, health care, worker protections and environmentalism, however, are popular among the general public, and yet Democrats have often been reticent to embrace them wholly, up until now.
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No one wants to go big taxes. Everyone wants to cut spending. Everyone wants better border security. Few want gun bans.

There are plenty of issues that Dems could use to push independents away.
 
Helix said:
vs how motivated his cult is.
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The question is would it actually be possible for his Cult to have grown? I don't think it is. I think every single solitary person in the country who could stomach voting for him already did in 2016. His block isn't getting bigger. In fact, it will almost certainly be smaller given that a large chunk of his base is older baby boomers many of which have passed away, while the Democratic base is still very young and growing.
 
Josie said:
Do you think Trump will be easy to beat in 2020 or will it be a tough road? Any Democratic candidate that you think would wipe the floor with him? Any Democratic candidate that you think can't beat him?
Click to expand...

At this point, Trumpism is a cult, a cult of personality. There is no amount of charlatanry, rank ignorance, incompetence, or criminal activity which could come out that would change any of his supporters’ minds. Anyone who wants to go up against him hast to understand that he will be running against a sort of cult prophet who is worshiped blindly by many Americans. It’s not going to be easy.
 
I agree with everyone who said it should be easy but won't be. My money is still on him losing. But I wouldn't bet a LOT of money on it.
 
Perhaps somewhat easy to beat. That being said, I don't think that any candidate could do it. As we saw with Hillary, it is possible to lose to Trump. I think the Dems need to be smart about who they pick, but that if they get a good candidate then they should win rather easily.
 
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