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Why Trump Will Lose The Government Shutdown Fight

Rogue Valley

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Why Trump Will Lose The Government Shutdown Fight

3QMV76A5HMI6TJ2ZFOCUDO56EA.jpg


1/20/19
President Donald Trump’s latest offer of a deal to resolve the government shutdown was an inept playing of a weak hand. It was never in the cards for Democrats to agree to Trump’s $5.7 billion wall demand in exchange for just three years of protection for the Dreamers plus temporary reprieves for some other immigrants. Trump obviously knew this when he made the offer. He is still betting that the public will accept his argument that a physical wall is needed to protect Americans from an invasion of refugees and an inflow of illegal drugs. But public opinion isn’t buying it. There is no such invasion. Flows of undocumented migrants have dramatically slowed in recent years, and most illegal drugs are smuggled in on commercial flights, not via illegal border crossers. The main driver of the opioid epidemic is not illegal imports across the Mexican border, but a commercial U.S.-based drug company, Purdue Pharma, which hyped demand for its product OxyContin. A wall would stop migrants and drugs only in some parallel universe imagined by Fox News. Public opinion is getting away from Trump, both on the case for the wall and on citizen weariness with the government shutdown. Yes, some portions of Trump’s base buy his story, but that’s not enough to satisfy a growing number of Republican senators who would be happy to take the short-term budget deal that’s been on the table for weeks: Open the government and then keep negotiating about border security.

Trump has already demonstrated weakness in other ways, in raising and then discarding the idea of using presidential emergency powers to order construction of his wall. That shows that there must be some grown-ups to whom Trump pays some attention, perhaps his much abused chief of staff and jack-of-all-jobs Mick Mulvaney. Or maybe Javanka. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has dutifully promised a Senate vote on Trump’s proposal next week, but be careful. Several Republican senators are fed up with Trump’s shutdown antics, and the measure could fail. Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma referred to Trump’s proposal as a “straw man” in an interview with ABC’s Martha Raddatz. Democrats have been united while Republicans have begun defecting. Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, one of the more centrist and bipartisan Democrats, declared on “Meet the Press” that the Trump offer was only a “starting point” and that Democrats would not reward “hostage taking,” meaning the shutdown. There is one small silver lining in Trump’s proposal. It shows that a new phase has begun, in which the president is willing to start bargaining. This was just his opening gambit.

Via polls and protests in front of the White House that are growing in size, Trump is coming to the realization that he is in a very weak position politically regarding the shutdown and the wall. The vast majority of Americans want the former ended immediately and want no part of the latter. Trumps base is neither large enough nor powerful enough to sustain his demands. A segment of this base, uneducated white males, is now shrinking. As the negatives of the shutdown begin to increase exponentially with the passing days (over 1 month now), TheDonald is going to have to increase his concessions dramatically. We're getting close to the political tipping point. If Trump vacillates much longer, he can forget any notions of running again in 2020. His power play with Pelosi never had the juice to succeed. That it has taken him this long to realize this truism speaks volumes on his political ineptness and his historical callousness towards employees.
 

Greenbeard

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Trump has no idea what he's doing. Hopefully this fiasco disabuses people of the notion that presidentin' is something any incompetent idiot can manage. We've now tried that for two years and it definitively has not worked.
 

OlNate

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LOL! Hack

"LOL! Hack"? That's what you guys are reduced to, I guess...hehe....

I warned you that this is what religiously polishing that turd would lead to. :lol: This is what happens when "I want a jackass to flip off Lefties" is your priority when picking a president.
 

WCH

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"LOL! Hack"? That's what you guys are reduced to, I guess...hehe....

I warned you that this is what religiously polishing that turd would lead to. :lol: This is what happens when "I want a jackass to flip off Lefties" is your priority when picking a president.

Who's "religiously polishing" anything, Nate? This is nothing but the regurgitation of the same ol'.

We have issues with immigration, drugs, crime, etc that up until now, no one has been dealing with.

How about instead of supporting this continuous political rhetoric, we come together and solve these problems. BTW: since you don't live here, buzz off.
 

bongsaway

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Who's "religiously polishing" anything, Nate? This is nothing but the regurgitation of the same ol'.

We have issues with immigration, drugs, crime, etc that up until now, no one has been dealing with.

How about instead of supporting this continuous political rhetoric, we come together and solve these problems. BTW: since you don't live here, buzz off.

How come the right didn't have these issues for the two years they controlled all of government? Wouldn't it make sense if it was a real issue the republicans would have allocated money for a wall when they held all the power?
 

OlNate

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Who's "religiously polishing" anything, Nate? This is nothing but the regurgitation of the same ol'.

We have issues with immigration, drugs, crime, etc that up until now, no one has been dealing with.

How about instead of supporting this continuous political rhetoric, we come together and solve these problems. BTW: since you don't live here, buzz off.

lmao....ah, you guys and your "You don't live here" schtick. You're on an international debate forum, with no regional settings. You buzz off... ;) :lol:

Of course you have those issues. They're complicated issues. Do you not think if a wall would have worked, it would have been built a long time ago? It's so easy, so easy to fit into sound bites that even the Republican base can understand. Plus it has legacy points - whoever builds it will have that as their legacy for as long as there are Mexicans. It's a clear example of "doing something". Any of your last 4 presidents (minimum) could have done it. Why didn't they? Do you really think Trump is the mental giant it took to stumble upon this solution?

:lamo

No, you guys are going all in with this dumbassery, as you are with any dumbassery that comes with a Trump label on it, no one is buying it, so all you got left is "LOL! Hack". Ok if I have an ugly chuckle about that? Cuz I am... ;)
 

JayJay

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Who's "religiously polishing" anything, Nate? This is nothing but the regurgitation of the same ol'.

We have issues with immigration, drugs, crime, etc that up until now, no one has been dealing with.

How about instead of supporting this continuous political rhetoric, we come together and solve these problems. BTW: since you don't live here, buzz off.

I agree...we should come together.

That starts by dropping the myth that one side wants border security and the other doesn’t.

That starts by ceasing to hold 800,000 workers hostage over a demand you’ve already proved you don’t believe is needed to stave off an “emergency”...because if you truly believed it was an emergency the wall could fix, you would have ceased playing around with an attempted power play and simply declared it an emergency.

That you didn’t...that Newt Gingrich actually told you NOT to do so but instead continue to play political games...shows you don’t believe it’s an emergency.
 

Jetboogieman

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“It isn’t over til it’s over”.

I can’t get over the fact that Trumpites haven’t realized they’ve been had.

Mexico was supposed to pay for the wall, it was supposed to be “easy” and yet here we are, Trump and Trump country are howling at the moon that Democrats make that money available immediately for... a wall?

No a barrier.

No, “border security”.
 

tres borrachos

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Who's "religiously polishing" anything, Nate? This is nothing but the regurgitation of the same ol'.

We have issues with immigration, drugs, crime, etc that up until now, no one has been dealing with.

How about instead of supporting this continuous political rhetoric, we come together and solve these problems. BTW: since you don't live here, buzz off.

Too bad the Republicans didn't deal with immigration, drugs, crime, etc. for the 2 years where they controlled the WH, Congress and the Senate. Maybe they should have done that instead of wasting the country's time on that "We're going to replace the ACA" thing.
 

tres borrachos

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Who's "religiously polishing" anything, Nate? This is nothing but the regurgitation of the same ol'.

We have issues with immigration, drugs, crime, etc that up until now, no one has been dealing with.

How about instead of supporting this continuous political rhetoric, we come together and solve these problems. BTW: since you don't live here, buzz off.

BTW, you don't make the rules on this forum, you know.

Shall as ask the board owner to concur with your post, which was rude and ignorant?
 

Rogue Valley

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Too bad the Republicans didn't deal with immigration, drugs, crime, etc. for the 2 years where they controlled the WH, Congress and the Senate. Maybe they should have done that instead of wasting the country's time on that "We're going to replace the ACA" thing.

That and the magnificent tax breaks for the wealthy.
 

TheParser

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The President is a patriot.

When he leaves the White House, he wants to know that he was able to build a "barrier" to help protect our country from people who think that they have a God-given right to just walk in here whenever they feel like it.

I hope that he does not blink.

He should stay strong until the Dems demand that Nancy and Chuck come to the table.

If his firmness destroys his chance at reelection, he will be able to return to his business knowing that millions of Americans thank him for doing the best job he could, despite the unrelenting opposition from people whose motives are suspect.
 

WCH

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lmao....ah, you guys and your "You don't live here" schtick. You're on an international debate forum, with no regional settings. You buzz off... ;) :lol:

Of course you have those issues. They're complicated issues. Do you not think if a wall would have worked, it would have been built a long time ago? It's so easy, so easy to fit into sound bites that even the Republican base can understand. Plus it has legacy points - whoever builds it will have that as their legacy for as long as there are Mexicans. It's a clear example of "doing something". Any of your last 4 presidents (minimum) could have done it. Why didn't they? Do you really think Trump is the mental giant it took to stumble upon this solution?

:lamo

No, you guys are going all in with this dumbassery, as you are with any dumbassery that comes with a Trump label on it, no one is buying it, so all you got left is "LOL! Hack". Ok if I have an ugly chuckle about that? Cuz I am... ;)

Far as I'm concerned, you're just another foreign agent speaking out of turn. Worry about you own country. Your input is worthless to this conversation.
 

WCH

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The President is a patriot.

When he leaves the White House, he wants to know that he was able to build a "barrier" to help protect our country from people who think that they have a God-given right to just walk in here whenever they feel like it.

I hope that he does not blink.

He should stay strong until the Dems demand that Nancy and Chuck come to the table.

If his firmness destroys his chance at reelection, he will be able to return to his business knowing that millions of Americans thank him for doing the best job he could, despite the unrelenting opposition from people whose motives are suspect.

Hear Hear.
 

OlNate

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Far as I'm concerned, you're just another foreign agent speaking out of turn. Worry about you own country. Your input is worthless to this conversation.

Translation:

surrender.jpg
 

WCH

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BTW, you don't make the rules on this forum, you know.

Shall as ask the board owner to concur with your post, which was rude and ignorant?

So you believe foreigners should have voice in our political affairs? I don't.
 

tres borrachos

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So you believe foreigners should have voice in our political affairs? I don't.

This is someone else's message board. I'm sure you're able to make your own and prohibit foreigners from joining. Unfortunately for you, you don't get to make the rules here.

We will all miss you when you're gone.
 

ataraxia

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Why Trump Will Lose The Government Shutdown Fight

3QMV76A5HMI6TJ2ZFOCUDO56EA.jpg




Via polls and protests in front of the White House that are growing in size, Trump is coming to the realization that he is in a very weak position politically regarding the shutdown and the wall. The vast majority of Americans want the former ended immediately and want no part of the latter. Trumps base is neither large enough nor powerful enough to sustain his demands. A segment of this base, uneducated white males, is now shrinking. As the negatives of the shutdown begin to increase exponentially with the passing days (over 1 month now), TheDonald is going to have to increase his concessions dramatically. We're getting close to the political tipping point. If Trump vacillates much longer, he can forget any notions of running again in 2020. His power play with Pelosi never had the juice to succeed. That it has taken him this long to realize this truism speaks volumes on his political ineptness and his historical callousness towards employees.

At this point, Trump is just a tool for Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, Tucker Carlson, and Sean Hannity. They are the people really running the executive branch right now. Trump is just their mouthpiece. Pelosi needs to just skip the middleman Trump and negotiate with them directly. If she can get them to relent, Trump will follow.
 

WCH

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Too bad the Republicans didn't deal with immigration, drugs, crime, etc. for the 2 years where they controlled the WH, Congress and the Senate. Maybe they should have done that instead of wasting the country's time on that "We're going to replace the ACA" thing.

there is a thing called a filibuster you should probably look it up.
you have been told this before but ignored it for some reason.
 

tres borrachos

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WCH

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This is someone else's message board. I'm sure you're able to make your own and prohibit foreigners from joining. Unfortunately for you, you don't get to make the rules here.

We will all miss you when you're gone.

I didn't make a rule, I gave my opinion of foreign interference. You're not a Mod either.
 
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