Why is NATO delaying F-16s to Ukraine?

[lwf]

Gee, nuclear war is what would happen if posters on here got their way and NATO entered the war, that’s for sure

So then back to my question:

If a nuclear armed superpower commits genocide against a neighbor and seizes their territory to expand their own and uses the threat of nuclear annihilation to discourage interference from the rest of the sane world, what do you feel is the appropriate response from the rest of the world?

 

[iguanaman]

There was an interesting survey done by Stratfor a few weeks ago of intelligence specialists, I believe 50 some. The median estimate for how long this war goes on was 3.5 more years. The lowest was ends in 2024, the highest was 11 years.

The thing that is the most likely determinant for the duration of the war is the extent of support Ukraine continues to receive from the US specifically. My concern is that we simply run out of the "meat and potatos" aspects of supplies they need. Specifically 155's/ammo, guided rockets, anti tank weapons, and anti air, being the biggest four. Ukraine is losing armor so fast the last 8 weeks that I don't see how they could mount a new offensive. They have managed to protect a large number of their tanks recently, most experts think the tanks are held back far from the lines in Zapro and Kharkiv, but they are losing 10-12 IFVs a day and nearly 1000 lost over winter. That's a big problem.

Combine all of this with mounting domestic pressures, Ukraine has a tough road. Their GDP declined ~35% last year compared to Russia's ~2%. Ukraine is literally a welfare-warfare state at this point. If China decides to supply Russia with drones, artillery/ammo, AFVs then Ukraine is pretty boned.

So it is your contention that the combined production of the US and the EU cannot match or exceed Russian armament production? I think you are dreaming. The Russians are the ones running out of ammo.

 

[Tigerace117]

So then back to my question:

If a nuclear armed superpower commits genocide against a neighbor and seizes their territory to expand their own and uses the threat of nuclear annihilation to discourage interference from the rest of the sane world, what do you feel is the appropriate response from the rest of the world?

Your question is a meaningless hypothetical, as most of the globe doesn’t recognize what is going on as genocide in the first place.

The “sane world” doesn’t excuse and defend its war criminals while howling about everyone else’s, btw.

 

[lwf]

Your question is a meaningless hypothetical, as most of the globe doesn’t recognize what is going on as genocide in the first place.

The “sane world” doesn’t excuse and defend its war criminals while howling about everyone else’s, btw.

I'm not talking about Russia and Ukraine here. Why can't you just answer the hypothetical?

If a nuclear armed superpower commits genocide against a neighbor and seizes their territory to expand their own and uses the threat of nuclear annihilation to discourage interference from the rest of the world, what do you feel is the appropriate response from the rest of the world?

 

[Tigerace117]

I'm not talking about Russia and Ukraine here. Why can't you just answer the hypothetical?

If a nuclear armed superpower commits genocide against a neighbor and seizes their territory to expand their own and uses the threat of nuclear annihilation to discourage interference from the rest of the world, what do you feel is the appropriate response from the rest of the world?

Because the hypothetical is meaningless.

 

[Fearandloathing]

There was an interesting survey done by Stratfor a few weeks ago of intelligence specialists, I believe 50 some. The median estimate for how long this war goes on was 3.5 more years. The lowest was ends in 2024, the highest was 11 years.

The thing that is the most likely determinant for the duration of the war is the extent of support Ukraine continues to receive from the US specifically. My concern is that we simply run out of the "meat and potatos" aspects of supplies they need. Specifically 155's/ammo, guided rockets, anti tank weapons, and anti air, being the biggest four. Ukraine is losing armor so fast the last 8 weeks that I don't see how they could mount a new offensive. They have managed to protect a large number of their tanks recently, most experts think the tanks are held back far from the lines in Zapro and Kharkiv, but they are losing 10-12 IFVs a day and nearly 1000 lost over winter. That's a big problem.

Combine all of this with mounting domestic pressures, Ukraine has a tough road. Their GDP declined ~35% last year compared to Russia's ~2%. Ukraine is literally a welfare-warfare state at this point. If China decides to supply Russia with drones, artillery/ammo, AFVs then Ukraine is pretty boned.

Well............

There are several errors in there.

One, the US is not the only supplier of weapons, tanks and planes.

for once, and as a surprise to Puke on, NATO is actually stepping up to the table. There are secret training exercises going on in Canada and the US, training for future commanders.

I notice all your posts are negative toward Ukraine, you especially like stating that Ukraine is losing and your forecasts are always grim: "...losing its armor so fast I don't see how they could mount an offensive"

As if you are in on secret shit and an expert of the production of weapons.

That statement is propaganda.

I don't believe you.

 

[lwf]

Because the hypothetical is meaningless.

How so?

 

[iguanaman]

There is a picture of an M1A2 that got turret popped. Show me where the modular armor came off, separated, or is even visible.

That is a picture from Syria isn't it? That is why we are training Ukrainians to use Abrams unlike Turkey that did not. They lost a bunch of Leopards too.

 

[iguanaman]

Your question is a meaningless hypothetical, as most of the globe doesn’t recognize what is going on as genocide in the first place.

The “sane world” doesn’t excuse and defend its war criminals while howling about everyone else’s, btw.

LOL Most of the free world does recognize Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a war crime and genocide. Why can't you?

HELSINKI COMMISSION BRIEFING ON RUSSIA'S GENOCIDE IN UKRAINE​

The panelists unanimously agreed that Russia's invasion of Ukraine meets the definition of the term genocide as defined by the Genocide Convention. According to that definition, genocide occurs when any of the following acts are committed with the “intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group as such”:

1. Killing members of the group;
2. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
3. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
4. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
5. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group

According to Snyder, Russia is unambiguously committing the five types of crimes outlined in the Genocide Convention. However, Russia’s clear statements of genocidal intent in its public statements and the media make it a unique case from a historical perspective.
https://www.csce.gov/international-...helsinki-commission-briefing-russias-genocide

 

[Tigerace117]

How so?

Because if your scenario were to actually happen there is minimal anyone could actually do short of a global thermonuclear war.

 

[bave]

So it is your contention that the combined production of the US and the EU cannot match or exceed Russian armament production? I think you are dreaming. The Russians are the ones running out of ammo.

This isn't really debated frankly.

The US has already exhausted our supply of 155MM ammo and M777 howitzers. There are no more of them coming in any quantity. US production of 155MM rounds is estimated at ~7k a month. The Ukrainians were using upwards of 25k a day at the peak. Total capacity in Europe is estimated at another 2k shells per month. Russia production capacity is more questionable, but they have enormous stockpiles from the cold war and are now being supplied by other nations on compatible ammo stocks as well. So the artillery war is strongly in favor of the Russians. The Russians have much more limited capacity in guided air launched weapons etc.

The fundamental problem is that the things the Ukrainians really need (Javelins, Stingers, M777/ammo, guided rockets for HIMARs etc) are all effectively exhausted. What they are getting along those lines now is very limited and a fraction of what they have received to date. That's a major problem for them.

 

[lwf]

Because if your scenario were to actually happen there is minimal anyone could actually do short of a global thermonuclear war.

Okay, so is that what you think the appropriate response should be? Or do you think the rest of the world should simply not respond at all?

 

[Tigerace117]

LOL Most of the free world does recognize Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a war crime and genocide. Why don't you?

The “free world” doesn’t exist, and only about six countries TOTAL recognize what’s going on as “genocide”....and three of those are the Baltic States, who barely count due to their ongoing efforts to rehabilitate their local collaborators.

War crimes and genocide are not, in fact, equivalent.

 

[Tigerace117]

That is a picture from Syria isn't it? That is why we are training Ukrainians to use Abrams unlike Turkey that did not. They lost a bunch of Leopards too.

Iraq lost over a hundred Abrams tanks against ****ing ISIS.

 

[Tigerace117]

Okay, so is that what you think the appropriate response should be? Or do you think the rest of the world should simply not respond at all?

Okay, so we’ve throughly established why your hypothetical is meaningless.

 

[bave]

That is a picture from Syria isn't it? That is why we are training Ukrainians to use Abrams unlike Turkey that did not. They lost a bunch of Leopards too.

I am not sure, but that looks like Iraq. I don't believe the US ever had M1's on the ground in Syria, it was mostly light infantry. Turkey never received any M1's from the US, nor did the Syrian rebels. So I don't think there were ever any in Syria.

However there were a number of Leopards in Turkey and Syria, but they were not good ones. They were old Leopard 1's and 2a4's which are not particularly great tanks. It wasn't until you got to the 2a6 that they became world class really.

 

[iguanaman]

The “free world” doesn’t exist, and only about six countries TOTAL recognize what’s going on as “genocide”....and three of those are the Baltic States, who barely count due to their ongoing efforts to rehabilitate their local collaborators.

War crimes and genocide are not, in fact, equivalent.

HELSINKI COMMISSION BRIEFING ON RUSSIA'S GENOCIDE IN UKRAINE​

The panelists unanimously agreed that Russia's invasion of Ukraine meets the definition of the term genocide as defined by the Genocide Convention. According to that definition, genocide occurs when any of the following acts are committed with the “intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group as such”:

1. Killing members of the group;
2. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
3. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
4. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
5. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group

According to Snyder, Russia is unambiguously committing the five types of crimes outlined in the Genocide Convention. However, Russia’s clear statements of genocidal intent in its public statements and the media make it a unique case from a historical perspective.
https://www.csce.gov/international-...helsinki-commission-briefing-russias-genocide

 

[lwf]

Okay, so we’ve throughly established why your hypothetical is meaningless.

I'm wondering what the hypothetical response should be in your opinion. If a nuclear armed superpower commits genocide against a neighbor and seizes their territory to expand their own and uses the threat of nuclear annihilation to discourage interference from the rest of the world, what do you feel is the appropriate response from the rest of the world?

You now what hypothetical means. Your inability or refusal to answer this hypothetical makes me question whether you actually believe what you say on these Russia/Ukraine threads.

 

[Tigerace117]

I'm wondering what the hypothetical response should be in your opinion. If a nuclear armed superpower commits genocide against a neighbor and seizes their territory to expand their own and uses the threat of nuclear annihilation to discourage interference from the rest of the world, what do you feel is the appropriate response from the rest of the world?

You now what hypothetical means. Your inability or refusal to answer this hypothetical makes me question whether you actually believe what you say on these Russia/Ukraine threads.

You pouting because I pointed out why your hypothetical was meaningless does not change the facts.

 

[Tigerace117]

HELSINKI COMMISSION BRIEFING ON RUSSIA'S GENOCIDE IN UKRAINE​

The panelists unanimously agreed that Russia's invasion of Ukraine meets the definition of the term genocide as defined by the Genocide Convention. According to that definition, genocide occurs when any of the following acts are committed with the “intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group as such”:

1. Killing members of the group;
2. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
3. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
4. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
5. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group

According to Snyder, Russia is unambiguously committing the five types of crimes outlined in the Genocide Convention. However, Russia’s clear statements of genocidal intent in its public statements and the media make it a unique case from a historical perspective.
https://www.csce.gov/international-...helsinki-commission-briefing-russias-genocide

And yet the vast majority of the globe rejects Snyder’s claims.

 

[lwf]

You pouting because I pointed out why your hypothetical was meaningless does not change the facts.

 

[Tigerace117]

Congrats, your drivel got even more meaningless.

 

[bave]

Well............

There are several errors in there.

One, the US is not the only supplier of weapons, tanks and planes.

Of size we are. More importantly, we are the only manufacturers of several of those items. The M777 production line is shut down entirely and has been for some time. The 155MM ammo production capacity for all of NATO is ~80% US and entirely located in one spot (Scranton, PA). They are trying to expand production and currently operating 6 days a week, two shifts a day, but they don't anticipate additional capacity for at least a few years. Tanks are produced primarily in the US, UK, and Germany, but the availability of those was never in question, nor planes. The fundamental issue for the Ukrainians is meat and potatos weapons that are in short supply.

for once, and as a surprise to Puke on, NATO is actually stepping up to the table. There are secret training exercises going on in Canada and the US, training for future commanders.

You mispelled United States as "NATO". The US is the overwhelming majority of military aid to Ukraine and almost the entirety of service assistance to Ukraine (ie: intellligence and field support). This is a prime example of the failure of the bulk of our NATO allies in Europe. Decades of underfunding their defenses have left them helpless to contribute meaningfully.

I notice all your posts are negative toward Ukraine, you especially like stating that Ukraine is losing and your forecasts are always grim: "...losing its armor so fast I don't see how they could mount an offensive"

I don't think all of my posts are negative, they are just more negative compared to what the media tells you. The Ukrainian people are fighting well for their situation, from a morale perspective in particular and they are punching above their weight. That doesn't change the fact that in a war of attrition, which they are now firmly in, they are severely handicapped.

As if you are in on secret shit and an expert of the production of weapons.

None of this stuff is particularly secret. You can get the exact figures of FGM148 production from Raytheon quarter by quarter. You can get their report on production tables and expansion. The DoD has released details about the operations at the Scranton Arsenal. The fact that BAE has had the M777 line closed down for years has long been public knowledge. Numerous DoD officials have publicly stated we are at minimum inventory levels for several of these items, specifically mentioning things like 155 ammo and javelins. You just have to read, you should give it a shot.

That statement is propaganda.

I don't believe you.

You know what propagda is? Believing something that is objectively contradicted by data points.

What part of this do you think is secret? classified? or debated? Google any of the above and see what you can find.

 

[iguanaman]

This isn't really debated frankly.

The US has already exhausted our supply of 155MM ammo and M777 howitzers. There are no more of them coming in any quantity. US production of 155MM rounds is estimated at ~7k a month. The Ukrainians were using upwards of 25k a day at the peak. Total capacity in Europe is estimated at another 2k shells per month. Russia production capacity is more questionable, but they have enormous stockpiles from the cold war and are now being supplied by other nations on compatible ammo stocks as well. So the artillery war is strongly in favor of the Russians. The Russians have much more limited capacity in guided air launched weapons etc.

The fundamental problem is that the things the Ukrainians really need (Javelins, Stingers, M777/ammo, guided rockets for HIMARs etc) are all effectively exhausted. What they are getting along those lines now is very limited and a fraction of what they have received to date. That's a major problem for them.

I have more faith that you do in the allies ability to ramp up production faster than Russia can. But we will see won't we? The naysayers have been consistently wrong about Ukraine so there is that.

Pentagon Will Increase Artillery Production Sixfold for Ukraine​

The Army’s top acquisition official says production of the 155-millimeter shells badly needed by Kyiv will rise to 90,000 a month in two years.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/politics/pentagon-ukraine-ammunition.html

 

[iguanaman]

And yet the vast majority of the globe rejects Snyder’s claims.

Link to the countries that have rejected those claims. You are mistaken. Russia has not even denied that they want to wipe out the Ukrainian identity. That is their stated goal.