Why does anybody think Donald Trump will win?

[Chomsky]

I think he can afford to lose Ohio, if he can somehow win Arizona and North Carolina??

Trump is going to have a harder time getting to 270 than Biden is.

I'm betting biden will indeed lose OH.

 

[Chomsky]

Because a 13% chance of winning is still a chance. That's three tails in a row. Unlikely, but certainly possible.

Great analogy!

 

[Chomsky]

The problem is arizona and north carolina are stretches despite polling, both have favored republican candidates, and obama won nc in 2008 while being extremely popular but lost it in 2012, biden is far cry from the popularity and excitement obama brought on to that voter base.

My guess is as well as many political junkies without partisan blinders that trump will likely win ohio and florida, as well and nc and az, and that the race will be dictated by states like pa and mi, with nv as a variable as well as nh but much less likely than the two rust belt states determing the entire election.

I think this is excellent analysis. Though I believe AZ is likely to go Biden, which will kill Trump's chances. Also, as goes PA goes the election.

 

[ASHES]

I think this is excellent analysis. Though I believe AZ is likely to go Biden, which will kill Trump's chances. Also, as goes PA goes the election.

I've seen you claim that a few times now, is that based on polling data? What convinced you AZ, where Joe Arpaio served as elected sheriff for 24 years, would vote for Joe Biden? Do you think it's all the old people in AZ going for Biden, and would that give him FL too?

 

[Chomsky]

I've seen you claim that a few times now, is that based on polling data? What convinced you AZ, where Joe Arpaio served as elected sheriff for 24 years, would vote for Joe Biden? Do you think it's all the old people in AZ going for Biden, and would that give him FL too?

Purely based upon polling data in the Presidential and Senate races. I'm even thinking there might be a slight reverse-coat-tails effect in the McSally race.

 

[beefheart]

I've seen you claim that a few times now, is that based on polling data? What convinced you AZ, where Joe Arpaio served as elected sheriff for 24 years, would vote for Joe Biden? Do you think it's all the old people in AZ going for Biden, and would that give him FL too?

Most of the old people who voted for Arpaio are now daisy propellant.

 

[ajn678]

So do you think Donald Trump can beat president Hilary Clinton? ROLF

I understand you are under strict ordered by Joe Biden to NEVER accept any facts. Like old bizarro Superman comic books, you absolutely MUST declare everything to be exactly opposites of the facts.

What does Clinton, the least likeable candidate(other than Trump) have to do with 2020?

 

[Jay59]

What does Clinton, the least likeable candidate(other than Trump) have to do with 2020?

The candidate is different, but the party is the same, the fund sources are largely the same, the media is the same, most of the messaging is the same. There is more same than different, which is why so many people think the end will be the same.

For the record, I am not one of them. Hillary got a major boost from third party involvement that is absent this time.

 

[tosca1]

Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.

Why do I, and so many think he'll win? It's not like as if I just got that out of thin air without any basis.

Have you read the INDICATORS?

Indicators For Trump Win

The polls tell the same story: Trump is trailing. But as we all know what happened in 2016.......Trump won! This time they say, it's different. Trump is truly, undeniably trailing. The polls we see may indeed indicate that, but........................ are they reliable? If it happened...

debatepolitics.com

 

[Cardinal]

I think this is excellent analysis. Though I believe AZ is likely to go Biden, which will kill Trump's chances. Also, as goes PA goes the election.

538 has PA as the tipping state, but the real life tipping state is Florida.

 

[Paradoxical]

I will pray for Joe Biden to win every swing state.

So you think there is a God of elections?

 

[Cardinal]

Why do I, and so many think he'll win? It's not like as if I just got that out of thin air without any basis.

Have you read the INDICATORS?

Indicators For Trump Win

The polls tell the same story: Trump is trailing. But as we all know what happened in 2016.......Trump won! This time they say, it's different. Trump is truly, undeniably trailing. The polls we see may indeed indicate that, but........................ are they reliable? If it happened...

debatepolitics.com

If trump loses, what lesson will you take away from that?

 

[ASHES]

If trump loses, what lesson will you take away from that?

Voter fraud.

 

[tres borrachos]

Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.

He can win. So can Biden. With 6 days to go, nothing will surprise me.

I can only do my part and join the smart people in voting for Biden.

 

[Perotista]

Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.

You're wrong as far as no chance. The numbers are positive for Biden, but one doesn't really know for sure. Biden has been between 48-52% of the popular vote since May. Never above or lower. Trump has been between 40-44% during that time. Never above or below those numbers. Even considering that most polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, Biden should win the popular vote fairly easy.

Electoral College wise, I have Biden with a 232-125 lead in safe states for each. 181 tossup. Out of those tossup's, I'd give Biden at least an 80% of winning 56 of them bringing his total to 288. The rest are pure tossup's. 50-50. That's my take on it as of today.

 

[Cardinal]

Voter fraud.

Yeah, silly of me to ask.

 

[bearpoker]

He does not have to win all three, but he needs a combo of some other states with it, if he loses ohio and florida, and the republican toss up states end up being not so toss up, he would have to win the rust belt, if biden can chip away arizona or nc he does not need the whole rust belt just the big prize.

But no matter how you look at it in an electoral college sense it is pointing to pa or mi as being the deciding state. This is not a guarantee of anything though as reagan won handily his first election and his second election he won almost the entire nation, all things are in the realm of possibility, though I doubt they would be off far enough in the polls for trump to pull a reagan as that would require winning 49 states, but it is highly in the realm of possibility he could win the ec and even general vote due to polling errors or low opposition turnout.

Trump's opposition turnout will not be low.

 

[Buckeyes85]

Can we objectively agree Trump has lost people who voted for him in 2016, when he lost the popular vote by 3MM- but still won the electoral college? The question is then who he has converted to being a Trump voter that did not vote for him in 16? I literally have not heard of a single human being who has switched to being a Trump supporter since '16. He has a remote chance of keeping the electoral college vote close if he manages to win most of the swing states. But that is unlikely. Much more likely is that he is going to get smoked.

 

[99percenter]

He still has a path to victory. It's more narrow than 2016; his edges in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are gone, but he can still string together enough states to win the EC.

He needs one of those states to win, other wise there is no path to victory.

 

[swing_voter]

538 says Trump has a 12% chance of winning.

That's a small chance, but it's still a chance.

 

[Cardinal]

You're wrong as far as no chance. The numbers are positive for Biden, but one doesn't really know for sure. Biden has been between 48-52% of the popular vote since May. Never above or lower. Trump has been between 40-44% during that time. Never above or below those numbers. Even considering that most polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, Biden should win the popular vote fairly easy.

Electoral College wise, I have Biden with a 232-125 lead in safe states for each. 181 tossup. Out of those tossup's, I'd give Biden at least an 80% of winning 56 of them bringing his total to 288. The rest are pure tossup's. 50-50. That's my take on it as of today.

Depends on what you call safe. If you call safe a lead of 7 points or higher, Biden's EC count is automatically 253. If you call it +50% lead, something Clinton didn't have in any of the rust belt states, his count is 273.

 

[bearpoker]

Can we objectively agree Trump has lost people who voted for him in 2016, when he lost the popular vote by 3MM- but still won the electoral college? The question is then who he has converted to being a Trump voter that did not vote for him in 16? I literally have not heard of a single human being who has switched to being a Trump supporter since '16. He has a remote chance of keeping the electoral college vote close if he manages to win most of the swing states. But that is unlikely. Much more likely is that he is going to get smoked.

I don't think he has converted anyone from opposition to support. It's possible that he has converted more nonvoting supporters to voting for him. This is why he has continually sharpened his appeals to his base, trying to pull in those dormant fans and get them to the polls.

 

[Joseph57]

Don't be overconfident. He lost the popular vote in 2016 and still won and he'll do anything to win. Even now there are reports of the Trump Campaign discussing measures to bypass election results by appointing loyal electors in red battleground states. Trump needs to lose by a landslide to be assured he is cowed. ... https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommyb...W7_Gs6Ij8vBw3nxSSqXZoypBx3yB2lPI#376dd28c4800

 

[sjmay]

In a state like North Dakota, there is one EC vote for every 254,000 citizens. In a state like California, there is one EC vote for every 718,000 citizens. That is a bias any way you look at it. People are only going to put up with minority rule for so long. They have had put up with it off and only for 30 years now and it only gets more and more extreme. At a minimum, we need to add more House members to make them proportional across the board again.

That's not bias nor minority rule.......but I guess you are ok with 3 or 5 key demographic area's dictating to the rest of the country

 

[ALiberalModerate]

That's not bias nor minority rule.......but I guess you are ok with 3 or 5 key demographic area's dictating to the rest of the country

It is the very definition of minority rule. Why are you okay with a vote in one state being worth much more than a vote in another state?