- Joined
- Jul 9, 2008
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No one for the short term. But I have the suspicion that Ryan Republicans will have to do a four way battle with moderates, Tea Party populists, and Trump-like populists.
The Tea Party populists were previously the biggest foes to vanilla Republicanism. In several short months they went from being the pariahs to the last hope of salvaging the Republican Party. I think this was a delusion, but Republicans were headed there because an even greater exaggerated populist presence was emerging from one candidate. Sometimes, much to the dismay of Tea Partiers, a number of their brethren were more taken in with Trump than would on the surface seem compatible with their movement. That's a continued failing of true believers in the Reaganist conservative movement, because they have been most unwilling to see the rancorous populism that had been brewing for quite some time within the grassroots conservative movement. It didn't surprise me much (but it did disappoint me) that Trumpism hit it off so well within the GOP base. It wasn't an alien infection, it was largely a virus from within.
Despite Cruz's more-than-obvious ploy for the soul of the Party at Cincinnati, Cruz ended up isolating at least half or more of his valued donors and his Texas delegation. Kasich has salvaged some reputation, like Cruz, with the intent of 2020. He will have some measure of success, but the more likely outcome is to once again rely on some of the most talented Young Gun Republicans available--most notably Paul Ryan.
Right now, though Ryan has the best shot at uniting the party, he does so against not just the small band of moderates like Bush and Kasich, but a populist-dominated GOP. Neither the Tea Party nor the Trump crowd are big on public policy, preferring instead to stay active at rallies, cheering and jeering at the sharpest, most divisive rhetorical jabs. Ryan's policy agenda had always ironically missed the boat with a movement he desperately wanted to be aligned with, for many Tea Partiers were wanting to have the conservative welfare state off-limits for market reform, preferring instead to kick off "undeserving" populations receiving those and additional programs. This always meant that the white working and lower middle classes needed to be secured from minority and disabled populations. Ryan's attachment to small government, free market principles never fully matched the varied impulses found within the disjointed Tea Party movement. A substantial number will be willing to join Ryan because they too believe in many of those principles, but the Tea Party ranks are divided and most anti-intellectual. It's not an easy thing for an avidly intellectual candidate to sway such crowds.
The Tea Party populists were previously the biggest foes to vanilla Republicanism. In several short months they went from being the pariahs to the last hope of salvaging the Republican Party. I think this was a delusion, but Republicans were headed there because an even greater exaggerated populist presence was emerging from one candidate. Sometimes, much to the dismay of Tea Partiers, a number of their brethren were more taken in with Trump than would on the surface seem compatible with their movement. That's a continued failing of true believers in the Reaganist conservative movement, because they have been most unwilling to see the rancorous populism that had been brewing for quite some time within the grassroots conservative movement. It didn't surprise me much (but it did disappoint me) that Trumpism hit it off so well within the GOP base. It wasn't an alien infection, it was largely a virus from within.
Despite Cruz's more-than-obvious ploy for the soul of the Party at Cincinnati, Cruz ended up isolating at least half or more of his valued donors and his Texas delegation. Kasich has salvaged some reputation, like Cruz, with the intent of 2020. He will have some measure of success, but the more likely outcome is to once again rely on some of the most talented Young Gun Republicans available--most notably Paul Ryan.
Right now, though Ryan has the best shot at uniting the party, he does so against not just the small band of moderates like Bush and Kasich, but a populist-dominated GOP. Neither the Tea Party nor the Trump crowd are big on public policy, preferring instead to stay active at rallies, cheering and jeering at the sharpest, most divisive rhetorical jabs. Ryan's policy agenda had always ironically missed the boat with a movement he desperately wanted to be aligned with, for many Tea Partiers were wanting to have the conservative welfare state off-limits for market reform, preferring instead to kick off "undeserving" populations receiving those and additional programs. This always meant that the white working and lower middle classes needed to be secured from minority and disabled populations. Ryan's attachment to small government, free market principles never fully matched the varied impulses found within the disjointed Tea Party movement. A substantial number will be willing to join Ryan because they too believe in many of those principles, but the Tea Party ranks are divided and most anti-intellectual. It's not an easy thing for an avidly intellectual candidate to sway such crowds.
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