In my mind, the Trump nomination has been an embarrassment and a disaster for the GOP. A low point for a party that I left 10 years ago for its continued failure to act upon the rhetoric it campaigns on. But in the wreckage, I hold out some hope that maybe something good can re-emerge. If that is the case, then maybe Trump's nomination isn't a total loss.
I honestly don't see this as something that gets decided within a 4 year span, if I'm being totally honest.
Had this been Ted Cruz, as opposed to Trump, then I think the issue would've been far less. That would've been an instance of the long standing divide between the moderate/establishment wing of the party vs the ideological/grassroots wing. That's a normal bit of conflict in every party and I don't think would've been very harmful. I also think, despite many peoples dislike of Ted, they would've gotten on board and supported him more so than they have Trump.
But Trump throws this strange "third way" into the mix. This is an individual who is not moderate in
Tone, but definitely not wholly conservative in ideology either. This is a guy who breaks from long standing traditional Republican Party policy stances, while at the same time pushing for some of the long standing policy desires of the base. And he's someone who's building his campaign less on ideology (like grassroots candidates do), or on policy and tone (like most moderates do), but rather seemingly building it around
rhetoric and
attitude.
This has led to significant displeasure with him from BOTH of the normal traditional sides of the Republican party. At the same time, it's also pulled in a lot of people who normally wouldn't really be associated with the "party" in the fashion they currently are.
Where it goes from here if he gets blown out? I honestly don't know, but I wouldn't be shocked if we have at least one more of these knock down drag out type of nomination cycles.
That said, a few observations...
I have a hard time seeing another person on the horizon with the Cult of Personality that Trump has to be able to pull off his "3rd way" method of attracting people.
The Grassroots have had rumblings of displeasure in previous years about the "moderate" candidate that ran, and many have silently sat at home and not voted, but we've not really seen it to the VOCAL degree as we've seen from the establishment this time around. While I think the establishment will (wrongly) attempt to suggest that a Trump lost means a grassroots loss, I think a lot in the grassroots will see this as legitimizing the notion of actually legitimately, and vocally, "staying home" if they don't like a moderate candidate in the future.
The only real hope is to find a Grassroots individual, with the necessary cult of personality to get away with some moderate tendancies, in order to actually bring people together. Quite frankly, I don't see anyone on the horizon that can be that person, nor do I think it may be even feasible to do right now. Rubio would've been the closest example of this, and he floundered.
Trump, frankly, was the worst case scenario for the party and is why I was so distraught by the notion of him winning. Win or Lose, the Republican party is in for significant strife and conflict going forward. Win, and it marks a shift both away from many conservative ideals and many moderate goals in terms of tone. Lose, and it creates this three way split of mess that will take multiple cycles to truly sort out.