who takes over the wreckage that is the Republican party?
Will it be Trump or someone who picks up his "ideology"?
They'd better hope not.
Trump has lashed himself to the mast of the White Male. Even if it had worked in this election, it's clearly alienated substantial chunks of the electorate, that are growing as a percentage of the population. It's a disastrous strategy, born of denial and desperation of an impending demographic shift.
I think Trump himself won't stick around after a loss, but someone could try to pick up the mantle and lead his followers with anti-PC, anti-trade, anti-immigrant, isolationist message. I don't see anyone the horizon though.
Cruz.
Who will fail.
a good portion of Trump's supporters are not traditional Republicans.
Well....
Trump is not doing a good job of holding onto the Republican vote; only 73% of Republicans support him. Not good.
The only new group he's drawing from is the alt-right, and that's a complete disaster. True, the establishment does not want to offend the typical Trump voter, but it is increasingly difficult to hang onto the alt-right without offending pretty much every other group.
Will it be the establishment?
Maybe.
This isn't entirely unprecedented. Barry Goldwater captured the fringes of the Republican Party, and nearly blew the whole thing up in a disastrous run for the Presidency. 4 years later, Nixon -- who did not represent the Goldwater voter at all, and ran more as a moderate in many respects -- won the nomination and Presidency.
In fact Ted Cruz was Trump's longest lasting rival and commanded a significant following of his own. He's more of the true Tea Party, fiscal conservative, anti-establishment guy. And I think after Trump goes down in flames, he's refusal to endorse Trump at the convention will be seen as a principled and correct stand.
I seriously doubt it.
Cruz isn't coming across as a man of principle, he's coming across as a troll, a spoiler who likes to stick it to people. Lots of people. In terms of national politics, even though he was right about Trump, he's done.
Endorsements mean little these days in terms of actual votes....
They didn't mean much in the 2016 Republican Primary. They meant a lot in the Democratic Primary, and it's not clear how important they will be in 2020.
In my mind, the Trump nomination has been an embarrassment and a disaster for the GOP. A low point for a party that I left 10 years ago for its continued failure to act upon the rhetoric it campaigns on. But in the wreckage, I hold out some hope that maybe something good can re-emerge. If that is the case, then maybe Trump's nomination isn't a total loss.
Well, it is certainly possible.
IMO what will hold them back is the right-wing media echo chamber, and its accompanying near-delusional refusal to accept the world as it is. They've constructed an infrastructure where they only hear what they want to hear, and other voices are not welcome. Not everyone is stuck in that mentality, I suspect many realize that if they don't broaden their appeal (and fast), and that Trump is a huge setback, then the GOP will be in the cold on the national scale for an entire generation.
However, those stuck in in the alt-right / Fox News realm will not take even a decisive Trump defeat as evidence of any flaws in their world view. I have a bad feeling they would even take a landslide loss as a boost.
The GOP basically has to decide if it wants to be the party of adults, or of trolls. Sad to say, I'm not encouraged by this year's primary.
