Which US Cities are the Safest?

[Mina]

I was curious what the safest big cities in the US are. For that, I took the most recent FBI Uniform Crime Report, looked at only the metropolitan statistical areas with at least 750,000 residents, and sorted them from lowest murder rate to highest. Here are the 15 safest:

City	Murder Rate	Population
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY M.S.A.	1.6​	879862​
Raleigh-Cary, NC M.S.A.3	1.7​	1392882​
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH M.S.A.3, 5	1.9​	4880689​
Worcester, MA-CT M.S.A.3	2.0​	870501​
Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI M.S.A.4	2.2​	1079969​
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX M.S.A.3	2.2​	871926​
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA M.S.A.	2.3​	2002715​
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA M.S.A.	2.3​	1620927​
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA M.S.A.	2.4​	2500376​
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX M.S.A.3	2.5​	2217312​
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA M.S.A.	2.6​	3346196​
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI M.S.A.3	2.7​	3643083​
Urban Honolulu, HI M.S.A.	2.8​	974902​
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA M.S.A.	2.8​	847049​
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT M.S.A.	3.0​	929479​

Here are the 15 most dangerous:

City	Murder Rate	Population
Memphis, TN-MS-AR M.S.A.2, 3	17.6​	1344796​
New Orleans-Metairie, LA M.S.A.	15.9​	1273092​
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD M.S.A.	15.5​	2800231​
Baton Rouge, LA M.S.A.	14.1​	852152​
Albuquerque, NM M.S.A.4	10.1​	918114​
Greensboro-High Point, NC M.S.A.3	9.7​	772854​
Bakersfield, CA M.S.A.	9.4​	896356​
Jacksonville, FL M.S.A.	9.2​	1549030​
Charleston-North Charleston, SC M.S.A.	8.9​	804618​
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI M.S.A.	8.4​	4320314​
Columbia, SC M.S.A.	8.4​	841451​
Richmond, VA M.S.A.	8.3​	1287449​
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN M.S.A.	8.3​	1269402​
Tulsa, OK M.S.A.	8.2​	998117​
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC M.S.A.3	8.0​	1761473​

I think this is consistent with my perception that, generally speaking, big cities in liberal regions do better than the ones in conservative regions (probably due in part to the impact of loose gun control in surrounding areas). 11 of the 15 most dangerous are located within regions I'd describe as conservative, while 12 of the 15 safest are located within region's I'd describe as liberal.

Of course, all these cities are quite dangerous relative to what we see in many other wealthy nations. For example, London's murder rate is 1.6, which would tie with the best of the US cities, despite being vastly larger and denser.

 

[Crovax]

​

I think this is consistent with my perception that, generally speaking, big cities in liberal regions do better than the ones in conservative regions (probably due in part to the impact of loose gun control in surrounding areas).

If you asked the average citizen what is the common thing between Memphis, New Orleans and Baltimore I doubt the answer would be conservative, southern, or lax gun control.

 

[ttwtt78640]

Hmm… Texas seems to be an outlier in your conservative vs. liberal state theory with two cities on your safest 15 list and none on your most dangerous cities list.

What was not stated is the party with control over the city’s and/or county’s police and criminal justice systems. That is likely to have far more impact than the state‘s gun control laws.

It is illegal (and often a felony or high level misdemeanor) everywhere for a ‘prohibited person’ to possess any gun, yet that most basic (and easiest to prove in court) gun control law is inadequately enforced.

 

[Integrityrespec]

Hmm… Texas seems to be an outlier in your conservative vs. liberal state theory with two cities on your safest 15 list and none on your most dangerous cities list.

What was not stated is the party with control over the city’s and/or county’s police and criminal justice systems. That is likely to have far more impact than the state‘s gun control laws.

It is illegal (and often a felony or high level misdemeanor) everywhere for a ‘prohibited person’ to possess any gun, yet that most basic (and easiest to prove in court) gun control law is inadequately enforced.

I would suggest you take a look the demographics in each of these states.

 

[ttwtt78640]

I would suggest you take a look the demographics in each of these states.

Why? What am I supposed to see?

 

[Mina]

If you asked the average citizen what is the common thing between Memphis, New Orleans and Baltimore I doubt the answer would be conservative, southern, or lax gun control.

I think you'd get very different reactions from different kinds of people. For example, I suspect under-educated rural white people would tend to focus on those being places with large Black populations. Up north, you'd probably see more of a focus on the fact those are south of the Mason-Dixon line. Someone more economically minded might focus on them being more "old economy" cities, with less knowledge work (and thus lower educational levels) than some of the thriving cities elsewhere (Boston, Raleigh, Austin, San Jose, etc.)

 

[reinaert]

The enormity of wealth in and around Boston is hard too overstate.

 

[Crovax]

For example, I suspect under-educated rural white people would tend to focus on those being places with large Black populations.

I think you are projecting a bit there hun

 

[ttwtt78640]

I think you are projecting a bit there hun

She has decided that city homicide rates are influenced (caused?) mainly by state gun control laws. Never mind that the homicide rate varies considerably among (larger) cities within the same state.

 

[Mina]

Hmm… Texas seems to be an outlier in your conservative vs. liberal state theory with two cities on your safest 15 list and none on your most dangerous cities list.

What was not stated is the party with control over the city’s and/or county’s police and criminal justice systems. That is likely to have far more impact than the state‘s gun control laws.

It is illegal (and often a felony or high level misdemeanor) everywhere for a ‘prohibited person’ to possess any gun, yet that most basic (and easiest to prove in court) gun control law is inadequately enforced.

Yes, Texas is an outlier in that sense. I took a quick look and it turns out Dallas and Houston didn't report in 2019, which was the last UCR date, for some reason (neither did NYC). Dallas would have been 4.4, and Houston 6.3, based on the prior year (NYC would have been 2.8), so both those big Texas cities would be in the middle batch of cities, rather than the high or the low.

Some ideas for why Texas is better off than most of the conservative-area cities:

(1) The cities are relatively low-density. Like compare Austin and Boston. Boston is nearly five times as dense, in terms of population per square mile. Texas's wide-open spaces allow for sparse settlement patterns in its cities. To the extent population density is a risk factor for crime (and I think it's generally understood to be such), Texas may be dealing with a lower "degree of difficulty" there than a lot of Eastern cities.

(2) Texas has a lot of immigrants, and statistically immigrants (including undocumented ones) commit violent crimes at significantly lower rates than native-born residents. That could be an advantage over other red states, since a lot of red states have unusually low immigrant populations.

As for the question of which party has control over a city's/county's police, etc., it's true we'd expect that to have an impact, but I think that is a factor that will tend to cancel out across major cities, since nearly all major cities are run by Democrats most of the time (or an equivalent left or center-left party in other countries). Like I think Albany, Raleigh, and Boston all have Democratic mayors, but so do Memphis, New Orleans, and Baltimore. So, party choice at the city/county level isn't the "x factor" that explains why some big cities are safe and livable, and others are post-apocalyptic hellscapes.

It would be a bit like saying that all the high-crime big cities lie on bodies of water. That may be true, but since nearly all major cities lie on bodies of water, that isn't saying much (I think Indianapolis is the only major city in the US that isn't on a navigable body of water). If great and terrible cities both are nearly always built on bodies of water, then being on a body of water can't be the "x factor" to explain the difference.

 

[Antiwar]

With respect:

Nowhere on Earth is safe, as long as nuclear arsenals and environmental degradation exist.

 

[PoS]

As an expat who spent time in Europe and Asia, I can say that almost every other country Ive been to is safer than in the US. I can walk around alone late at night at various downtown capital cities and I never felt scared of being robbed or attacked, unlike in the US.

Taxes and cost of living are way lower in these places too.

 

[mrjurrs]

As an expat who spent time in Europe and Asia, I can say that almost every other country Ive been to is safer than in the US. I can walk around alone late at night at various downtown capital cities and I never felt scared of being robbed or attacked, unlike in the US.

Taxes and cost of living are way lower in these places too.

Hmmmm. What's a major difference between the US and those other countries?

How many US mass shootings have there been in 2023?

Explaining some of the key statistics behind gun ownership and attacks linked to guns in the US.

www.bbc.com

 

[Resident Ali3n]

I was curious what the safest big cities in the US are. For that, I took the most recent FBI Uniform Crime Report, looked at only the metropolitan statistical areas with at least 750,000 residents, and sorted them from lowest murder rate to highest. Here are the 15 safest:

City	Murder Rate	Population
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY M.S.A.	1.6​	879862​
Raleigh-Cary, NC M.S.A.3	1.7​	1392882​
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH M.S.A.3, 5	1.9​	4880689​
Worcester, MA-CT M.S.A.3	2.0​	870501​
Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI M.S.A.4	2.2​	1079969​
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX M.S.A.3	2.2​	871926​
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA M.S.A.	2.3​	2002715​
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA M.S.A.	2.3​	1620927​
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA M.S.A.	2.4​	2500376​
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX M.S.A.3	2.5​	2217312​
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA M.S.A.	2.6​	3346196​
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI M.S.A.3	2.7​	3643083​
Urban Honolulu, HI M.S.A.	2.8​	974902​
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA M.S.A.	2.8​	847049​
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT M.S.A.	3.0​	929479​

Here are the 15 most dangerous:

City	Murder Rate	Population
Memphis, TN-MS-AR M.S.A.2, 3	17.6​	1344796​
New Orleans-Metairie, LA M.S.A.	15.9​	1273092​
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD M.S.A.	15.5​	2800231​
Baton Rouge, LA M.S.A.	14.1​	852152​
Albuquerque, NM M.S.A.4	10.1​	918114​
Greensboro-High Point, NC M.S.A.3	9.7​	772854​
Bakersfield, CA M.S.A.	9.4​	896356​
Jacksonville, FL M.S.A.	9.2​	1549030​
Charleston-North Charleston, SC M.S.A.	8.9​	804618​
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI M.S.A.	8.4​	4320314​
Columbia, SC M.S.A.	8.4​	841451​
Richmond, VA M.S.A.	8.3​	1287449​
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN M.S.A.	8.3​	1269402​
Tulsa, OK M.S.A.	8.2​	998117​
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC M.S.A.3	8.0​	1761473​

I think this is consistent with my perception that, generally speaking, big cities in liberal regions do better than the ones in conservative regions (probably due in part to the impact of loose gun control in surrounding areas). 11 of the 15 most dangerous are located within regions I'd describe as conservative, while 12 of the 15 safest are located within region's I'd describe as liberal.

Of course, all these cities are quite dangerous relative to what we see in many other wealthy nations. For example, London's murder rate is 1.6, which would tie with the best of the US cities, despite being vastly larger and denser.

Blacks are the problem and there needs to be a different set of laws to deal with those pesky thugs....we can name it something catchy like Jack Owl or Jim Crow

 

[PoS]

Hmmmm. What's a major difference between the US and those other countries?

How many US mass shootings have there been in 2023?

Explaining some of the key statistics behind gun ownership and attacks linked to guns in the US.

www.bbc.com

Wrong as usual. Switzerland has an assault rifle in every house, but they dont go shooting each other. No, its culture- Western Europeans and Asians seem to have more respect for each other, while Americans are pretty confrontational.

 

[FurriesRock]

It's actually true that diversity is the biggest factor in determining a city's safety.

More diversity equals less safety.

 

[Geoist]

I was curious what the safest big cities in the US are. For that, I took the most recent FBI Uniform Crime Report, looked at only the metropolitan statistical areas with at least 750,000 residents, and sorted them from lowest murder rate to highest. Here are the 15 safest:

City	Murder Rate	Population
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY M.S.A.	1.6​	879862​
Raleigh-Cary, NC M.S.A.3	1.7​	1392882​
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH M.S.A.3, 5	1.9​	4880689​
Worcester, MA-CT M.S.A.3	2.0​	870501​
Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI M.S.A.4	2.2​	1079969​
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX M.S.A.3	2.2​	871926​
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA M.S.A.	2.3​	2002715​
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA M.S.A.	2.3​	1620927​
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA M.S.A.	2.4​	2500376​
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX M.S.A.3	2.5​	2217312​
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA M.S.A.	2.6​	3346196​
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI M.S.A.3	2.7​	3643083​
Urban Honolulu, HI M.S.A.	2.8​	974902​
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA M.S.A.	2.8​	847049​
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT M.S.A.	3.0​	929479​

Here are the 15 most dangerous:

City	Murder Rate	Population
Memphis, TN-MS-AR M.S.A.2, 3	17.6​	1344796​
New Orleans-Metairie, LA M.S.A.	15.9​	1273092​
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD M.S.A.	15.5​	2800231​
Baton Rouge, LA M.S.A.	14.1​	852152​
Albuquerque, NM M.S.A.4	10.1​	918114​
Greensboro-High Point, NC M.S.A.3	9.7​	772854​
Bakersfield, CA M.S.A.	9.4​	896356​
Jacksonville, FL M.S.A.	9.2​	1549030​
Charleston-North Charleston, SC M.S.A.	8.9​	804618​
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI M.S.A.	8.4​	4320314​
Columbia, SC M.S.A.	8.4​	841451​
Richmond, VA M.S.A.	8.3​	1287449​
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN M.S.A.	8.3​	1269402​
Tulsa, OK M.S.A.	8.2​	998117​
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC M.S.A.3	8.0​	1761473​

I think this is consistent with my perception that, generally speaking, big cities in liberal regions do better than the ones in conservative regions (probably due in part to the impact of loose gun control in surrounding areas). 11 of the 15 most dangerous are located within regions I'd describe as conservative, while 12 of the 15 safest are located within region's I'd describe as liberal.

Of course, all these cities are quite dangerous relative to what we see in many other wealthy nations. For example, London's murder rate is 1.6, which would tie with the best of the US cities, despite being vastly larger and denser.

Chicago wasn't included as #1 (let alone in the top 15) most dangerous, therefore conservatives will automatically dismiss the stats as incompatible to their worldview.

 

[Geoist]

What was not stated is the party with control over the city’s and/or county’s police and criminal justice systems. That is likely to have far more impact than the state‘s gun control laws.

How many cities with a pop over 750K do Republicans hold?

 

[ttwtt78640]

How many cities with a pop over 750K do Republicans hold?

Certainly not the majority, but that has nothing to do with my point.

 

[Geoist]

Certainly not the majority, but that has nothing to do with my point.

You brought up political parties and control over cities. Kinda hard to do any comparisons when you cannot even produce an example of a Republican-controlled city of 750K+

I just looked it up. In the top 20 largest cities only 2 are Republican. I looked for the first Republican one: it's Jacksonville, FL and it's one of the 15 worst.

Party affiliation of the mayors of the 100 largest cities

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics

ballotpedia.org

 

[Geoist]

Certainly not the majority, but that has nothing to do with my point.

Additionally, the only other top 20 city with a Republican mayor has not been going in a good direction when it comes to murders...

During a second consecutive year of a spasm of gun crime in Fort Worth, more people were intentionally killed by another person in the city in 2021 than in any year since 1994. With 118 homicide victims, Fort Worth struggled to tame exceptional violence and the attendant misery. An explanation for the 27-year record high and an understanding of why similar homicide increases have occurred elsewhere in the country is a focus of unsettled study in criminology circles. In 1986, Fort Worth recorded 202 homicides, its record high, as crack cocaine sales burgeoned.

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/crime/article256937947.html

 

[ttwtt78640]

You brought up political parties and control over cities. Kinda hard to do any comparisons when you cannot even produce an example of a Republican-controlled city of 750K+

I just looked it up. In the top 20 largest cities only 2 are Republican. I looked for the first Republican one: it's Jacksonville, FL and it's one of the 15 worst.

Party affiliation of the mayors of the 100 largest cities

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics

ballotpedia.org

OK, but you are totally ignoring my larger point. Having a state law (gun control or otherwise) makes no difference if it is not being adequately enforced locally. The state laws are no different in Austin, TX than in Houston, TX, yet one city is on the top 15 list and the other is not. That alone, seems to disprove the OP theory that state (gun control) laws make a significant difference in local homicide rates.

 

[Geoist]

OK, but you are totally ignoring my larger point. Having a state law (gun control or otherwise) makes no difference if it is not being adequately enforced locally. The state laws are no different in Austin, TX than in Houston, TX, yet one city is on the top 15 list and the other is not. That alone, seems to disprove the OP theory that state (gun control) laws make a significant difference in local homicide rates.

Isn't Austin like 90% hipsters?

Joking aside, I think this is far more than a gun control issue. How a state and city/county invests in its communities plays a huge role in the statistics. If Republicans controlled these cities and severely cut social welfare programs you can bet the demand for guns (black market or not) will skyrocket.

 

[CaughtInThe]

It's actually true that diversity is the biggest factor in determining a city's safety.

More diversity equals less safety.

you need to call Raleigh, NC and tell them that...

Raleigh Demographics​

According to the most recent ACS, the racial composition of Raleigh was:

• White: 57.50%
• Black or African American: 28.90%
• Asian: 4.84%
• Two or more races: 4.25%
• Other race: 4.17%
• Native American: 0.30%
• Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander: 0.04%

 

[ttwtt78640]

Isn't Austin like 90% hipsters?

Joking aside, I think this is far more than a gun control issue. How a state and city/county invests in its communities plays a huge role in the statistics. If Republicans controlled these cities and severely cut social welfare programs you can bet the demand for guns (black market or not) will skyrocket.

OK, but the federal and state “safety net” program laws do not vary by city.