Which President Was Rejected By Voters The Most In Their First Midterm?

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https://www.cnn.com/2017/11/10/politics/house-retirement-tracker/index.html

Not sure I agree completely.

There were definitely a lot of Republicans leaving Congress. And some of them were certainly in competitive districts that have now flipped. But the majority of them were in safe seats. And again, the percentage of flips between incumbents and open seats were close to the same in 2010 and 2018.

Arizona 2, Martha McSally: to run for U.S. Senator.[4]
California 39, Ed Royce: retiring.[4]
California 49, Darrell Issa: retiring.[4]
Florida 6, Ron DeSantis: retiring to run for Governor of Florida.[10] Resigned on September 10, 2018, to concentrate on the race; his replacement will be seated in the new Congress.
Florida 15, Dennis Ross: retiring.[11]
Florida 17, Tom Rooney: retiring.[12][13]
Florida 27, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen: retiring.[4]
Idaho 1, Raúl Labrador: to run for Governor of Idaho.[4]
Indiana 4, Todd Rokita: to run for U.S. Senator.[4]
Indiana 6, Luke Messer: to run for U.S. Senator.[4]
Kansas 2, Lynn Jenkins: retiring.[4]
Michigan 11, Dave Trott: retiring.[4]
Mississippi 3, Gregg Harper: retiring.[4]
New Jersey 2, Frank LoBiondo: retiring "due to the increased political polarization of Congress".[14]
New Jersey 11, Rodney Frelinghuysen: retiring.[4]
New Mexico 2, Steve Pearce: to run for Governor of New Mexico.[4]
North Dakota at-large, Kevin Cramer: to run for U.S. Senator.[15]
Ohio 16, Jim Renacci: to run for U.S. Senator.[4]
Oklahoma 1, Jim Bridenstine: announced his retirement on November 10, 2017. He resigned on April 23, 2018, after being confirmed as Administrator of NASA; his replacement will be seated in the new Congress.
Pennsylvania 6, Ryan Costello: retiring due to "family, the political environment and redistricting".[16]
Pennsylvania 9, Bill Shuster: retiring.[4]
Pennsylvania 11, Lou Barletta: to run for U.S. Senator.[4]
South Carolina 4, Trey Gowdy: retiring to "return to the justice system".[17]
South Dakota at-large, Kristi Noem: to run for Governor of South Dakota.[4]
Tennessee 2, Jimmy Duncan: retiring.[4]
Tennessee 6, Diane Black: to run for Governor of Tennessee.[4]
Tennessee 7, Marsha Blackburn: to run for U.S. Senator.[18]
Texas 2, Ted Poe: retiring.[4]
Texas 3, Sam Johnson: retiring.[4]
Texas 5, Jeb Hensarling: retiring.[4]
Texas 6, Joe Barton: retiring.[4]
Texas 21, Lamar Smith: retiring.[4]
Virginia 5, Tom Garrett Jr.: retiring due to alcoholism.[19]
Virginia 6, Bob Goodlatte: retiring.[4]
Washington 8, Dave Reichert: retiring.[4]
Wisconsin 1, Paul Ryan: retiring.[4]

Bolded were safe. (Source for Retirements).

In 2010 there were less retirements, but almost all of them were in competitive seats, and Republicans ended picking up more of them than Democrats did this year. It's difficult to say it was much more of a factor this year I think.

 

[haymarket]

Don't forget all the retirements the Republicans had.

For very very good reason.

 

[lwf]

Still believe polls, do you?

I didn't name names. Just created an argument similar to the op. Which president was rejected by voters most in their first term according to my premises?

Begging the question is assuming your conclusion in your premises, which this op did just like I did. If we assume our conclusion in our premises, the answer to the op is president A. The answer to mine is president B. If both of these hypothetical presidents represent the same real presidents, and both conclusions can't be true, then we have a fallacy somewhere, no?

 

[lwf]

Ummmmmmmm. Obama's approval numbers were very low throughout most of his presidency, highlighted by the fact of the loss of over 1000 seats during his presidency to the Republicans. But, that didn't stop him from winning a Nobel prize before he had even done anything, based on expectations alone, which represents his 63% approval rating when he took office when he hadn't even done anything yet he could have an approval rating for.

I thought this was an A or B question?

 

[Bullseye]

Begging the question.

Which president was rejected by voters most in their first term? The one with the approval rating of 63% when he took office or the one with the approval rating of 42%?

Only approval rating that makes a **** is the vote.

 

[lwf]

Only approval rating that makes a **** is the vote.

Not according to my premises. According to my argument, the approval rating upon taking office is what determines which president is most rejected by voters, therefore president B is most rejected by voters. Unless you think you can reject my premises? Maybe because I'm begging the question?

 

[Bullseye]

Not according to my premises. According to my argument, the approval rating upon taking office is what determines which president is most rejected by voters, therefore president B is most rejected by voters. Unless you think you can reject my premises? Maybe because I'm begging the question?

Make up whatever premise you wish, we're all entitled to our own little delusions.

 

[lwf]

Make up whatever premise you wish, we're all entitled to our own little delusions.

You misunderstood me. I was agreeing with you. My premises were bogus, just like the op's and for exactly the same reason.

 

[Bullseye]

You misunderstood me. I was agreeing with you. My premises were bogus, just like the op's and for exactly the same reason.

oh, ok, sorry.

 

[lwf]

oh, ok, sorry.

no worries. My phrasing wasn't exactly clear.

 

[PeteEU]

President A, who lost 63 seats in the House and also lost ground in the Senate

or

President B, who lost around 35 seats in the House but gained seats in the Senate

This is an A or a B question. I'm not naming any names.

Depends on how big a time between the elections. If it is decades then they frankly can't be compared.

1) For the house there is redistributing for one. Also there is gerrymandering of districts which especially has happened in GOP run states the last 2+ decades. This has big implications for the house and why this midterm result is a big deal. The swing to flip the house away from the GOP has to be huge because of all the gerrymandering.... 7+ million more votes... that is a lot.

2) Senate .. here it comes down to which party has to defend most seats and where. This time around the odds were massively against the Dems even before taking into account the candidates. In 2 years it will be the GOP that has an uphill battle because they have to defend 20 seats vs the Dems 11 seats.

Hence it is hard to do a realistic comparison unless there has been 6 years difference and no redistricting of consquence.

Only thing that is factual is that the Dems are set to gain more seats in any election since the Watergate years.

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[SonOfDaedalus]

Ummmmmmmm. Obama's approval numbers were very low throughout most of his presidency, highlighted by the fact of the loss of over 1000 seats during his presidency to the Republicans. But, that didn't stop him from winning a Nobel prize before he had even done anything, based on expectations alone, which represents his 63% approval rating when he took office when he hadn't even done anything yet he could have an approval rating for.

He also got re-elected. He would almost certainly have been re-elected again if he could have run.

Even if Trump wins Florida and Ohio again, his chances of winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin look very bleak. He’ll be a one-term president like Jimmy Carter.

Until Trump wins re-election any comparison to Obama is premature. If Trump is not re-elected he’ll go down in history as a failure.


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[SonOfDaedalus]

Regarding the OP liberals are at a disadvantage in midterms because older people are a larger percentage of voters in midterms. Older voters tend to be more conservative (and closed-minded).

It’s not a fair comparison.


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[JoanDavis]

President A, who lost 63 seats in the House and also lost ground in the Senate

or

President B, who lost around 35 seats in the House but gained seats in the Senate

This is an A or a B question. I'm not naming any names.

A - President Obama was rejected in his first mid-terms because after 2 years voters were pissed that he hadn't fixed the economic mess that dubya and republicans caused. He eventually fixed the mess - got America out of the recession, created millions of jobs FOR Americans and reduced the unemployment rate from double digits to just under 5%.

B - trump inherited a strong economy, low unemployment and gave tax cuts to the richest Americans .....and LOST at least 30 seats in the House. That is PATHETIC. trump should have won these mid-terms in a landslide. He DIDN'T.

But you trump supporters keep pushing your bull****. It's very entertaining for the rest of us.

 

[JoanDavis]

Ummmmmmmm. Obama's approval numbers were very low throughout most of his presidency, highlighted by the fact of the loss of over 1000 seats during his presidency to the Republicans. But, that didn't stop him from winning a Nobel prize before he had even done anything, based on expectations alone, which represents his 63% approval rating when he took office when he hadn't even done anything yet he could have an approval rating for.

President Obama's approval rating at his inauguration was over 65%. trump's was a dismal 46%. When President Obama left office his approval rating was 67%. trump has NEVER gone over 46%. When trump leaves Mar-lar-go...I mean the whitehouse ....his approval rating will be worse than dubyas. dubya left office with approval rating of around 33%.

 

[Moderate Right]

I thought this was an A or B question?

I was responding to a post that was not the OP. I understand your confusion.

 

[Moderate Right]

He also got re-elected. He would almost certainly have been re-elected again if he could have run.

Even if Trump wins Florida and Ohio again, his chances of winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin look very bleak. He’ll be a one-term president like Jimmy Carter.

Until Trump wins re-election any comparison to Obama is premature. If Trump is not re-elected he’ll go down in history as a failure.


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In other words, you are finally admitting that Democrats in three blue states elected Trump president and that it had absolutely nothing to do with his base or white supremacists.

 

[Moderate Right]

President Obama's approval rating at his inauguration was over 65%. trump's was a dismal 46%. When President Obama left office his approval rating was 67%. trump has NEVER gone over 46%. When trump leaves Mar-lar-go...I mean the whitehouse ....his approval rating will be worse than dubyas. dubya left office with approval rating of around 33%.

You can't have an approval rating if you hadn't done anything yet to be approved of. It wasn't an "approval" rating, it was a "likability" rating. Trump was elected to be tough on others, not because voters wanted him to be likable. That's what voters wanted, not a push over like Obama.

 

[JustHanging]

President A, who lost 63 seats in the House and also lost ground in the Senate

or

President B, who lost around 35 seats in the House but gained seats in the Senate

This is an A or a B question. I'm not naming any names.

Based on Trump's actions, based on the fact that Trump ran two campaigns based on fear, hate, and racism, apparently believing that his base is largely made up of cowardly racists:


I would argue it would likely be the black POTUS. But hey, that's just based on Trump's statements. Well that, and numerous peer reviewed studies:

Research Finds That Racism, Sexism, and Status Fears Drove Trump Voters

 

[Moderate Right]

Based on Trump's actions, based on the fact that Trump ran two campaigns based on fear, hate, and racism, apparently believing that his base is largely made up of cowardly racists:


I would argue it would likely be the black POTUS. But hey, that's just based on Trump's statements. Well that, and numerous peer reviewed studies:

Research Finds That Racism, Sexism, and Status Fears Drove Trump Voters

Anyone can do a study and make it come out any way they want. No matter what the left want to claim, it was not white supremacists in red states who elected Trump president. They had absolutely zero to do with it. It was moderate Democrats and Independents in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania who wanted jobs and didn't want Hillary who elected Trump president. You could argue that maybe now they regret that choice but these are the people who elected Trump president and they are not racists, bigots, misogynists, or deplorables.