I think likability is a very important part of winning an election. Let’s face, our presidential election is basically a beauty contest. Usually folks don’t vote for someone they dislike. Now history shows that those who identify or affiliate with either major party vote for their candidate on average 90% of the time regardless of who that candidate is. But those who affiliate or identify themselves with the two major parties make up 60% of the electorate, give or take a point or two. The rest are swing voters, we usually call them independents. Independents as a whole or in general don’t pay much attention to the day to day grind of politics or the goings on in Washington. They also do not pay that much attention to policy, generally speaking.
Usually the more charismatic candidate wins. Bill Clinton up charisma up the ying yang over both Bush Sr. and Dole. Bill was a very likable guy. G.W. Bush didn’t have that much charisma, but he was a down home type of guy which a lot of folks could identify with. Gore and Kerry were more or less statues lacking any charisma. Obama had charisma, much more than the stoic McCain and Romney. Reagan had charisma and won over the policy wonk Mondale and Carter who lost his charm as a down home guy.
But Carter had that down home charm in 1976 when he defeated the semi statue Ford. 2016 is hard to put either candidate into the charisma class. Hillary did come across as elitist, aloof while Trump was obnoxious. The way I looked at it, it was the schoolyard bully vs. the wet mop. I guess when neither candidate is likable, lacks charisma, one of them still must win. Sort of like Nixon vs. Humphrey in 1968.
I do think when it comes to the swing, independent voter, a likable personality is very important. Maybe more so than policy or stances on the issues since most don’t pay that much attention to them. A great slogan helps, one that is short and memorable. Okay, 2016 broke the mold. But then we had two candidates going against each other who were the most disliked and unwanted candidates in our history of presidential elections.
I went back to 1952 checking favorable ratings of the two major party candidates. In every election the candidate with the higher favorable's won. The lone exception was 2016 where Hillary had a 38% favorable vs. Trump 36%. Then again, Hillary did win the popular vote, so perhaps an asterisk needs to be placed on 2016.