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[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

justoneman said:
Yes the reality is both sides have made modest gains in different areas during what is labeled as the big Ukrainian Spring Summer offensive.
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The situation is not the same for Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine is relying on others to finance the war; and as the last Nato Summit indicated, the financiers want to see something for their investments. Ukraine had promised Crimea; taking Bakhmut will not do the trick; A failure to take Crimea this year is a defeat; and places Ukrainian financiers before the question of how long to continue throwing good money after bad money. That is short term. On the long term question the EU has to decide whether it really wants a festering wound on its eastern flank in a Ukraine continuously wracked by war. If Ukraine is not pacified one way or another; outright victory by one or the other, or through negotiations, then Ukraine becomes a security threat to EU as those arms flooding into Ukraine sooner or later will start finding themselves in the hands of groups around Europe and elsewhere
 


Aftermath (plus several dead Russian soldiers).Most important: A couple of D-30 artillery pieces won't make it to their aspired positions.
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Chomsky said:
I'm not sure we can call this "a lie". It may simply have been miscalculated. RU seems to be far more competent in defense they anyone wildly assumed.

ATM, it looks like RU has really done a textbook perfect defense in both tactics and doctrine. Only time will tell the weaknesses and if UKR can exploit them.



If the lines stalemate into next year, I believe it will then be up to Putin. Will he take the out that's available to him, or will he continue to believe he can succeed in gaining more territory?
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I think you are rather wrong to talk about a stalemate. In June I posted several summaries of podcasts of German speaking military experts. They expected that the current type of action by the Ukraine would last way into August, because the Ukraine would have to degrade Russian troops and defensive positions.
Max and you are spoiled from wars in Kuwait and Iraq, where #1 Armies US and UK attacked a #3 Army and defense lines that were improvised and I think overimpressed. Even the US army would have a serious hard time, to cross mile deep and hundreds of miles long mine fields under constant arty fire.
Since Korea the US has not been in a serious war like this. Atacams, atacams, they do not clear miles of mines, neither do F16, they would be shot down like any SU or Migs. Clusters could help a lot with the mine fields, but in the end it is dirty old fashioned infantry which clears the mines and then takes the trenches, one by one.
That will take time, is slow, very dangerous and costly.
Luhansk and Dumbars, Doneskt, they bind Russian troops and can rather easily be supplied directly from Russia, across the border. To Regain the South the Ukraine has to soften the defenses of the South up and break through them, one by one. Mind you the Ukraine has only used 20% of its trained Reserve for the current operation.
Mind you even " the mighty US and UK air force " needed around 100 days, 3 month and some, with absolute air superiority, to break down the Iraqi defenses.
You guys expect that the Ukraine can do that over night, without absolute air superiority.
Sorry guys that is rather foolish.
Even the " all mighty US " could not do that.

The only thing the Ukraine needs now is ammo, which is coming and battlefield air defense and more anti air manpads.
 
justoneman said:
Yes the reality is both sides have made modest gains in different areas during what is labeled as the big Ukrainian Spring Summer offensive.
Click to expand...


In the south Zapporhizhia front it is actually not in Russia's interest to make gains. Russia has built huge fortifications there, which fortifications still have to be assaulted by Ukrainians. It does not benefit Russia to go on premature offense there. Presently it is Ukraine that has to navigate Russian minefields, brave Russian prepositioned artillery, and assault the fortifications. The smart play for Russia is to have Ukraine's Brigades do the assaulting, with the attendant costs on attacker, and go on offense only after Ukraine has committed the bulk of the Brigades assigned to take Azov or Crimea.

A problem Russia may be facing right now is that its picket lines are doing too good a job fending off the Ukrainian assaults. This may have the unintended effect of convincing the Ukrainians to change their mind and use the uncommitted Brigades elsewhere. Funny as it may sound it may actually be the smart play for Russian picketlines to fall back on the heavy fortifications, convincing the Ukrainians that Operation Crimea is doable as the Russians appear to be in retreat; this will draw more and more Ukrainian Brigades into the pit created by the picketlines falling back. The idea being to get into a death embrace with the Ukrainian Brigades
 
Rather nervous. Send a few more drones to make them more so
1689465560878.webp
 
Juin said:
Funny as it may sound it may actually be the smart play for Russian picketlines to fall back on the heavy fortifications, convincing the Ukrainians that Operation Crimea is doable as the Russians appear to be in retreat; this will draw more and more Ukrainian Brigades into the pit created by the picketlines falling back. The idea being to get into a death embrace with the Ukrainian Brigades
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I suspect they will do exactly that at various points.
 
JANFU said:
I think he is referring to Russian main supply lines can now be hit by Ukrainian artillery
May be wrong though
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You are right. The Ukraine controlls the East and then has high ground to the North and some to the South, which gives its arty control of the city's Eastern supply lines in and out and that is called a tactical encirclement
 
Schrott said:
You are right. The Ukraine controlls the East and then has high ground to the North and some to the South, which gives its arty control of the city's Eastern supply lines in and out and that is called a tactical encirclement
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I think you mean west. Ukraine does not control west. They are fighting in the Grey zone west of Bakhmut. They do not have fire control over any of the eastern part of Bakhmut.
 
Juin said:
The situation is not the same for Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine is relying on others to finance the war; and as the last Nato Summit indicated, the financiers want to see something for their investments. Ukraine had promised Crimea; taking Bakhmut will not do the trick; A failure to take Crimea this year is a defeat;
Click to expand...
Juin said:
and places Ukrainian financiers before the question of how long to continue throwing good money after bad money. That is short term. On the long term question the EU has to decide whether it really wants a festering wound on its eastern flank in a Ukraine continuously wracked by war. If Ukraine is not pacified one way or another; outright victory by one or the other, or through negotiations, then Ukraine becomes a security threat to EU as those arms flooding into Ukraine sooner or later will start finding themselves in the hands of groups around Europe and elsewhere
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No, it's not. This is hyperbole.
 
Chomsky said:
Bingo! I couldn't agree more! (y)

And quite honestly, that may be where all this is going.

I suspect UKR wants to bisect the Southern land-bridge more than anything. But, I'm sure they'll happily settle for Luhansk.
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One Oblast at a time.
 
Schrott said:
I think you are rather wrong to talk about a stalemate. In June I posted several summaries of podcasts of German speaking military experts. They expected that the current type of action by the Ukraine would last way into August, because the Ukraine would have to degrade Russian troops and defensive positions.
Max and you are spoiled from wars in Kuwait and Iraq, where #1 Armies US and UK attacked a #3 Army and defense lines that were improvised and I think overimpressed. Even the US army would have a serious hard time, to cross mile deep and hundreds of miles long mine fields under constant arty fire.
Since Korea the US has not been in a serious war like this. Atacams, atacams, they do not clear miles of mines, neither do F16, they would be shot down like any SU or Migs. Clusters could help a lot with the mine fields, but in the end it is dirty old fashioned infantry which clears the mines and then takes the trenches, one by one.
That will take time, is slow, very dangerous and costly.
Luhansk and Dumbars, Doneskt, they bind Russian troops and can rather easily be supplied directly from Russia, across the border. To Regain the South the Ukraine has to soften the defenses of the South up and break through them, one by one. Mind you the Ukraine has only used 20% of its trained Reserve for the current operation.
Mind you even " the mighty US and UK air force " needed around 100 days, 3 month and some, with absolute air superiority, to break down the Iraqi defenses.
You guys expect that the Ukraine can do that over night, without absolute air superiority.
Sorry guys that is rather foolish.
Even the " all mighty US " could not do that.

The only thing the Ukraine needs now is ammo, which is coming and battlefield air defense and more anti air manpads.
Click to expand...

I'm not predicting a stalemate, though I will not be highly surprised if the war settles into one.

My response was to a post hypothesizing this event could be drawn-out to an 8 year affair like the Iraq-Iran war.

But I am suggesting there will quite possibly be different thinking by next year, if there is a stalemate.
 
Juin said:
In the south Zapporhizhia front it is actually not in Russia's interest to make gains. Russia has built huge fortifications there, which fortifications still have to be assaulted by Ukrainians. It does not benefit Russia to go on premature offense there. Presently it is Ukraine that has to navigate Russian minefields, brave Russian prepositioned artillery, and assault the fortifications. The smart play for Russia is to have Ukraine's Brigades do the assaulting, with the attendant costs on attacker, and go on offense only after Ukraine has committed the bulk of the Brigades assigned to take Azov or Crimea.

A problem Russia may be facing right now is that its picket lines are doing too good a job fending off the Ukrainian assaults. This may have the unintended effect of convincing the Ukrainians to change their mind and use the uncommitted Brigades elsewhere. Funny as it may sound it may actually be the smart play for Russian picketlines to fall back on the heavy fortifications, convincing the Ukrainians that Operation Crimea is doable as the Russians appear to be in retreat; this will draw more and more Ukrainian Brigades into the pit created by the picketlines falling back. The idea being to get into a death embrace with the Ukrainian Brigades
Click to expand...

Interesting take. I find it hard to disagree, at least at the moment.
 
U.S. Defense Officials as well as several Allied Nations in Europe have stated to the New York Times that at least 20% of Deployed Equipment and Armor that has been used during the ongoing Ukrainian Offensive has been either Damaged or Destroyed with this being a Primary Factor why Ukrainian Ground Forces have now Halted any further Advances in order to Rethink Strategy.
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Schrott said:
I think you are rather wrong to talk about a stalemate. In June I posted several summaries of podcasts of German speaking military experts. They expected that the current type of action by the Ukraine would last way into August, because the Ukraine would have to degrade Russian troops and defensive positions.
Max and you are spoiled from wars in Kuwait and Iraq, where #1 Armies US and UK attacked a #3 Army and defense lines that were improvised and I think overimpressed. Even the US army would have a serious hard time, to cross mile deep and hundreds of miles long mine fields under constant arty fire.
Since Korea the US has not been in a serious war like this. Atacams, atacams, they do not clear miles of mines, neither do F16, they would be shot down like any SU or Migs. Clusters could help a lot with the mine fields, but in the end it is dirty old fashioned infantry which clears the mines and then takes the trenches, one by one.
That will take time, is slow, very dangerous and costly.
Luhansk and Dumbars, Doneskt, they bind Russian troops and can rather easily be supplied directly from Russia, across the border. To Regain the South the Ukraine has to soften the defenses of the South up and break through them, one by one. Mind you the Ukraine has only used 20% of its trained Reserve for the current operation.
Mind you even " the mighty US and UK air force " needed around 100 days, 3 month and some, with absolute air superiority, to break down the Iraqi defenses.
You guys expect that the Ukraine can do that over night, without absolute air superiority.
Sorry guys that is rather foolish.
Even the " all mighty US " could not do that.
Click to expand...
Schrott said:
The only thing the Ukraine needs now is ammo, which is coming and battlefield air defense and more anti air manpads.
Click to expand...

I must add the ammo and air defense/superiority thing has be disheartening.

The main bright spot I've seen so far has been NATO PG ammo doing a great job.
 
More divisions within the ranks
Great news, only to spread more
MUTINY IN THE AIR: After the firing of the commanders of the 106th & 7th Airborne Divisions, RU paratroopers say they'll mutiny and leave their positions if any move is made to fire the boss of the VDV forces, Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky. The dysfunction spreads....
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JANFU said:
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The question we've been trying to answer is:

"Is this 20% of all sent over, or 20% of that sent into actual combat engagement?"

The former would be quite alarming.
 


I'm taking bets on of those four explosions, how many were actual military targets vs random terrorism.
 
More firings
Another general is allegedly relieved, the commander of the 106th division (VDV), Maj-Gen Seliverstov. Like Popov, it’s going over poorly in Russian mil channels as part of shoigu/gerasimov purging ranks. One of them wrote “vae victus” (woe to the vanquished) 1/2
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There are only 4 divisions in the entire VDV (plus a similar # of brigades). No explanation/confirmation why for this, other than he was known for speaking his mind. 106th has been near Bakmut, which as a sector is strained. Pictured with Solovyev and yes a USSR patch
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