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[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

This is part of the problem, in that, a lot (if not most) of the systems of other countries are basically copies and reverse engineered American tech.

When we show our full capabilities it leads to an uptick in the overall capacity of our possible future opponents.
That can be good, because other Nation might think twice.

But what we see is the biggest ever propaganda coup falling apart. Russia had built the picture of a conventional super power and the picture of a energy super power. They did that extremely well. Nobody would touch Russia because of both. Russia made a ton of money, rich, untouchable and everybody was kissing its oligarchies left and right. But it was all a propaganda facade.
Now we know this natural resource empire is just hot air, Russia is not really needed.
Its military and all its wonder weapons, is a joke. thousands of tanks, ten thousands of arty, ammo supplies for a decade, gigantic air force, thousands of super rockets. You name it, Russia was able to paint a picture, that made it equal with the West and we believed it. I have to say again, because the Soviet did that, too.
But opposite to the Soviets, Russia started to believe in its own propaganda, lost touch with reality. Money can do that, too, and naturally power.
At one time Putin lost the grip on reality, at the heights of his power, where he was able to play every head of government, like Merkel, Macron or Trump, or Obama.
They all fell for the Russian propaganda.
To me that is the most important revelation of this war, the picture Russia drew of itself and made it one the most powerful countries in the world for decades.
Stunning
What really surprises me that Russia, actually believed in its own propaganda and did not actually know or believe or understand its own short comings.

I have to admire how Russia manipulated the world, that was masterful, till it invaded the Ukraine and that curtain came crashing down.
 
That can be good, because other Nation might think twice.

Definitely yes. It's just not ideal to show ones cards if you don't have to. The situation in Ukraine has forced our hand. Those that would wish to challenge us know a bit better what it will actually take.

What's to keep China from spending the next 30 years trying actually match us?

Unfortunately the Russians didn't seem to know they were so outmatched and blundered into a demonstration. Back in the day I think they would have been better informed, which is why the USSR never dared outside of their unfortunate adventure in Afghanistan.

But what we see is the biggest ever propaganda coup falling apart. Russia had built the picture of a conventional super power and the picture of a energy super power. They did that extremely well. Nobody would touch Russia because of both. Russia made a ton of money, rich, untouchable and everybody was kissing its oligarchies left and right. But it was all a propaganda facade.
Now we know this natural resource empire is just hot air, Russia is not really needed.

It's more than that.

Russia was also a foil for the military industrial complex here at home.

Try this line of thinking:

If our closest peer in group looks like it is decades out of date why do we need to spend so much on weapons development?

Its military and all its wonder weapons, is a joke. thousands of tanks, ten thousands of arty, ammo supplies for a decade, gigantic air force, thousands of super rockets. You name it, Russia was able to paint a picture, that made it equal with the West and we believed it. I have to say again, because the Soviet did that, too.

I don't actually think we (those in the know) in the west have ever really believed them. I think every conventional military test of the US system of combat in real combat during my lifetime has been a completely one sided affair. There may have been questions as to whether the Russians had made progress, but real tests of the capabilities don't seem to show anything of the sort.

In fact as war has become more and more technologically dominated I think they are falling behind. Their copies of our military tech are cheap imitations and their leadership is like watching a dog try to steer a car. Which is really something because I think the soviets had some god awful leadership.

But opposite to the Soviets, Russia started to believe in its own propaganda, lost touch with reality. Money can do that, too, and naturally power.
At one time Putin lost the grip on reality, at the heights of his power, where he was able to play every head of government, like Merkel, Macron or Trump, or Obama.
They all fell for the Russian propaganda.

I think what has happened in Russia today is that their ruling oligarchs and Putin have indeed lost touch with reality.

They don't seem introspective enough to realize either their own corruption or egotism prevent them from having the necessary tools for empire building.

They seem to have bought into the propaganda about their own forces and the rhetoric of a weak and ailing west.

Not on our worst day though...

To me that is the most important revelation of this war, the picture Russia drew of itself and made it one the most powerful countries in the world for decades.
Stunning
What really surprises me that Russia, actually believed in its own propaganda and did not actually know or believe or understand its own short comings.

I have to admire how Russia manipulated the world, that was masterful, till it invaded the Ukraine and that curtain came crashing down.

Indeed, the messaging and propaganda do seem to have an almost religious cultist sort of appeal.

Part reason it works though is that the USA routinely airs all our faults for the world to see and it is hard to believe that we can be so self absorbed in our own nonsense and also overwhelmingly capable due to that very same free society. I'm sure it frustrates the autocrats of the world to no end.

Part of why people buy into the message though is that they want to believe it, People who believed in Russia's tales of a rival to the USA was because it's a dream of theirs too.
 
Definitely yes. It's just not ideal to show ones cards if you don't have to. The situation in Ukraine has forced our hand. Those that would wish to challenge us know a bit better what it will actually take.

What's to keep China from spending the next 30 years trying actually match us?

Unfortunately the Russians didn't seem to know they were so outmatched and blundered into a demonstration. Back in the day I think they would have been better informed, which is why the USSR never dared outside of their unfortunate adventure in Afghanistan.



It's more than that.

Russia was also a foil for the military industrial complex here at home.

Try this line of thinking:

If our closest peer in group looks like it is decades out of date why do we need to spend so much on weapons development?



I don't actually think we (those in the know) in the west have ever really believed them. I think every conventional military test of the US system of combat in real combat during my lifetime has been a completely one sided affair. There may have been questions as to whether the Russians had made progress, but real tests of the capabilities don't seem to show anything of the sort.

In fact as war has become more and more technologically dominated I think they are falling behind. Their copies of our military tech are cheap imitations and their leadership is like watching a dog try to steer a car. Which is really something because I think the soviets had some god awful leadership.



I think what has happened in Russia today is that their ruling oligarchs and Putin have indeed lost touch with reality.

They don't seem introspective enough to realize either their own corruption or egotism prevent them from having the necessary tools for empire building.

They seem to have bought into the propaganda about their own forces and the rhetoric of a weak and ailing west.

Not on our worst day though...



Indeed, the messaging and propaganda do seem to have an almost religious cultist sort of appeal.

Part reason it works though is that the USA routinely airs all our faults for the world to see and it is hard to believe that we can be so self absorbed in our own nonsense and also overwhelmingly capable due to that very same free society. I'm sure it frustrates the autocrats of the world to no end.

Part of why people buy into the message though is that they want to believe it, People who believed in Russia's tales of a rival to the USA was because it's a dream of theirs too.

While both you and @Schrott make a lot of points that I agree with, as the Devil's advocate, I believe are crowing a bit prematurely. Russians, like others, learn from their mistakes and they eventually adapt.

This is to be expected. If, for example, the inside story of the German occupation of Austria were known and taken as an indication of German military efficiency by the west, they would have seen a hapless clown act; so badly organized and poorly coordinated among the units that if the Austrian Army hadn't been ordered to stand down it could have looked like a repeat of Russian invasion of Ukraine. (So much so that Hitler questioned how he could expect to invade other targets if this was what he had to work with).

But the Germans learned from the experience in less than a year, as the US learned from North Africa and the Pacific campaign, as the Russians learned in 1941 and 1942. And, as shown with Russia's new reliance on drones, increased EW to jam HIMARS and JDAMS, new methods of distributing ammo dumps, so too are the Russians learning what they need to do remake the Russian military into an effective combined arms force.

And we should not ignore Russia's inherit advantages in this conflict. It's deep old stocks of armored vehicles that allow it to refurbish vast numbers of older equipment, its large population allows it to throw many more of he untrained into battle as defenders, its production of munitions is short ONLY by Russian standards and still many fold greater than that of what the west can supply Ukraine, and there has still been no long term solution for Ukraine's depleting stock of SAMS. Moreover, the Russian rate of production of Iskandar's and Cruise missiles each month are at least a couple of score.

And we have yet to see the vast majority of Russia's combat planes engage in Ukraine...a size that runs between 500 and 1000 combat aircraft (depending on the source).

So let's not crow too loud, not yet.
 
While both you and @Schrott make a lot of points that I agree with, as the Devil's advocate, I believe are crowing a bit prematurely.

I'm not crowing, the observations are unflattering because reality is unflattering.

I'll update my analysis if and when the conditions change, but up to this point we are watching some serious "clown show" as you put it later.

Russians, like others, learn from their mistakes and they eventually adapt.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Whether they ever learn to make better use of their inherent strengths and deal with their weaknesses is immaterial to the main problems being at this point foundational issues that have persisted now for centuries.

This is to be expected. If, for example, the inside story of the German occupation of Austria were known and taken as an indication of German military efficiency by the west, they would have seen a hapless clown act; so badly organized and poorly coordinated among the units that if the Austrian Army hadn't been ordered to stand down it could have looked like a repeat of Russian invasion of Ukraine. (So much so that Hitler questioned how he could expect to invade other targets if this was what he had to work with).

But the Germans learned from the experience in less than a year, as the US learned from North Africa and the Pacific campaign, as the Russians learned in 1941 and 1942. And, as shown with Russia's new reliance on drones, increased EW to jam HIMARS and JDAMS, new methods of distributing ammo dumps, so too are the Russians learning what they need to do remake the Russian military into an effective combined arms force.

They keep being taught "lessons" in this conflict you're right. An effective combined arms force? Again, I'll believe it when I see it.

The lack of effective combined arms doctrine doesn't seem like something you can just turn around during a conflict.

And we should not ignore Russia's inherit advantages in this conflict. It's deep old stocks of armored vehicles that allow it to refurbish vast numbers of older equipment, its large population allows it to throw many more of he untrained into battle as defenders, its production of munitions is short ONLY by Russian standards and still many fold greater than that of what the west can supply Ukraine, and there has still been no long term solution for Ukraine's depleting stock of SAMS. Moreover, the Russian rate of production of Iskandar's and Cruise missiles each month are at least a couple of score.

Their only successes have been advance by mass artillery bombardment, so yes, being short by Russian standards is a problem. They've never demonstrated that they can advance any other way.

Again though this is a doctrinal issue, western (I'm going to hit what I aim at) vs Russian (I'm going to lob so many bombs at you you'll need to retreat.

And we have yet to see the vast majority of Russia's combat planes engage in Ukraine...a size that runs between 500 and 1000 combat aircraft (depending on the source).

And why do you suppose that is? To me the suggestion that Russia is capable of utilizing overwhelming airpower and is not, is quite hard to parse.
 
Their only successes have been advance by mass artillery bombardment, so yes, being short by Russian standards is a problem. They've never demonstrated that they can advance any other way.
Mass artillery bombardment followed by mass meat bombardment, yes.
 
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Me I am waiting for Ukraine to drop it
Drone attacks just keep on increasing in Russia


With support pillars like that, it wouldn't take too many HIMARS I suspect.
 
I'm betting they don't want to yet so that russians have a retreat route when they go into Crimea. If russians retreat, it's less work for them.

I don't see them "going into Crimea". Rather, I believe they'll park on the border, and starve them out. That will take dropping the Kerch.
 
This is part of the problem, in that, a lot (if not most) of the systems of other countries are basically copies and reverse engineered American tech.
When we show our full capabilities it leads to an uptick in the overall capacity of our possible future opponents.

Well said.
 
I suspect not every single regular commenter on this thread will agree with Ukraine's approach to its concentration of wealth problem, but I think we can all see why it made Putin anxious enough to try to erase Ukraine:

Great article. These measures sound good to me, though it would be impossible to implement here until we get a constitutional amendment specifying that political spending is not speech.
 

I suspect not every single regular commenter on this thread will agree with Ukraine's approach to its concentration of wealth problem, but I think we can all see why it made Putin anxious enough to try to erase Ukraine:


Great article. These measures sound good to me, though it would be impossible to implement here until we get a constitutional amendment specifying that political spending is not speech.
Guys, do you have any contacts in MSM? we´d send it to our leading mass - media . This is the biggest development since Kyiv battle , Nazi GRU officer Utkin (Muscovite Otto Skorzeny ) with his 30 000 GRU Wagner vs Chechen Muslim War Lord Kadyrov with his 30 000 (?) . Sounds more and more like 1917 )
The Grey Zone channel run by a Wagner member/veteran talks about the role of Chechen units in the war. He says members of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade said Chechen units rarely took part in assaults in Mariupol and when they did chose easier targets.

 
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