[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[maxparrish]

Now that might get interesting.

Progoshin has every incentive to declare victory, leave, and when it falls - claim,

"I told you they suck"

I don't know what game he is playing, but I gotta believe that Putin won't put up with this forever.

 

[Chomsky]

My emotions, rather than my head, would like to see attack axis number 4, perhaps with a 2a supplement if doable. However, I suspect one of the axis in the Luhansk oblast is easier and safer.

And I considered going around Bakhmut and head straight for Luhansk city. But I don't see that as particularly productive as dividing north from south is probably more easily done by attacks 6 or 7. Still the shock value of Luhansk under siege would shake Russian morale greatly.

The problem with going East, is RU's shorter & more direct GLOC's directly from the Motherland.

A Southern strategy more easily cuts-off RU GLOC's, with the GLOC's being far longer and more arduous to begin with. I believe UKR is happy to gain territory by starvation, particularly that big plum known as Crimea!

I remember something to the effect:

"Civilians talk of strategy, while Commanders talk of Supply Lines"

Indeed, I'm musing on a notion I've had since last summer, although it is politically impossible at this time given some success in either or both of the "breakaway" Republics an olive branch with a "deal" for both in return for their quasi independence and withdrawal from the war may present itself if things get worse for them and Russia. What could Russia do should the governments of either order their forces to stand down and for Russia to leave?

This isn't quite as improbable as you might think. I've read more than one story about the deep frustration, especially in Luhansk with Russia using their troops to fight outside their oblast. Most don't feel Crimea is their war, and its up to Crimea to defend itself. As disillusionment sets in the fracture lines should widen.

Interesting gambit. But, who will protect the new semi-autonomous states? It will have to be Zelenski.

But yes, Zelensky could promise them a vote.

 

[Chomsky]

Well, alsas, we can't agree on everything. Somebody had to lead, and when none with the power had the will to go first on any particular issue the rest dutifully suggested the other guy or country do it first. All I can say is I've known what I would have done, and feel fairly confident in what many members of Congress of BOTH parties would have done, had they been in charge.
The elevation of guys like Pistorius in Germany, or the UK PM, or the election of the Italian President repeatedly cracked the sea ICE until it broke.

We (NATO) are getting there, without a doubt. But in the beginning, I believe there was simply too much unknown, including Putin's response. I believe there was a fear of escalation. It took awhile to grow a pair.

Also, UKR was an unknown quantity at the time.

But straight-up, rather than us - it was Germany that took the lead. They saw an opening, and they went for it.

 

[Chomsky]

I smiled. I understand his family was very disappointed when he decided he didn't want to finish his studies to become a lawyer and chose a career in entertainment. Who would have thought?

I wasn't aware. IMHO, it's virtually always worth finishing one's education prior to career risks.

 

[Chomsky]

I don't know what game he is playing, but I gotta believe that Putin won't put up with this forever.

I'm not sure Putin has a choice?

 

[maxparrish]

Ukrainian Americans are a large swing vote due to Trump/DeSantis critiques of Ukraine

Insight: Trump or DeSantis? Neither, say Ukrainian-American voters angry at war stance

Though small in number, their votes could prove decisive in the 2024 presidential race.

www.reuters.com

I'm not Ukrainian and always voted for a Republican in every office since I was 18 (now 71). Trump was the first party presidential nominee I ever refused to vote for, and won't vote for either Trump or DeSantis over Ukraine.

After living through the cold war and the threat of the Soviet Union for a lifetime there isn't anyway in Hell I want to go to my grave having seen the western world passively let a new demonic empire reconstitute itself and start another arms race.

Besides, I'm damn tired of seeing the bad guys win. Ukraine is a country of good and decent people, and such folk deserve to be free of scum like Putin and his Russo fascism.

 

[JANFU]

 

[maxparrish]

I'm not sure Putin has a choice?

There was an article I saw somewhere that I should have read on this very subject.

 

[JANFU]

There was an article I saw somewhere that I should have read on this very subject.

Russia under the Soviets and today-Putin is playing factions against each other.
He need Wagner as a balance to the power of the military which has risen during this war
I posted a couple of articles on this. If I find them again, I will tag you

 

[JANFU]

 

[Chomsky]

This is more & more looking like Southern Front shaping.

 

[JANFU]

 

[Schrott]

Russia under the Soviets and today-Putin is playing factions against each other.
He need Wagner as a balance to the power of the military which has risen during this war
I posted a couple of articles on this. If I find them again, I will tag you

Putin is splitting and dividing the power centers and have them fight each other.

 

[JANFU]

This is more & more looking like Southern Front shaping.

Yes. Some post somewhere had Ukraine with 200 + Leopards by late June/July???
Not sure on that. Does anyone have numbers delivered - timelines for future deliveries??

 

[Schrott]

Now that might get interesting.

Progoshin has every incentive to declare victory, leave, and when it falls - claim,

"I told you they suck"

He has spent his troops in the last effort and now has to leave. By some estimates, German sources, he has only 5 to 7,000 men left.

 

[Chomsky]

CNN
—
Russia’s deputy foreign minister has warned Western countries of “enormous risks” if Ukraine is provided with F-16 fighter jets, Russian state media TASS reported Saturday.

Responding to the move, Alexander Grushko said: “We see that the Western countries are still adhering to the escalation scenario.

“It involves enormous risks for themselves. In any case, this will be taken into account in all our plans, and we have all the necessary means to achieve the set goals.”

(CNN) Russia warns West of ‘enormous risks’ if Ukraine is supplied with F-16 jets

 

[Chomsky]

He has spent his troops in the last effort and now has to leave. By some estimates, German sources, he has only 5 to 7,000 men left.

What? I find that hard to believe. Shocking, even.

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

@maxparrish
Found 1 article-possible paywall

Why Putin Needs Wagner

The hidden power struggle sustaining Russia’s brutal militia.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[justoneman]

To add:

". . . and the damaged Kiev Patriot system appears to be assessed as 'functional'."

First Ukraine said they shot down every russian missile incuding a hypersonic missile. Then later they said one missile got through but no damage. Then it was one patriot missile system was slightly damaged. Then the video came out and we hear one patriot system destroyed and another damaged and Ukraine used 14 patriot missiles in like one minute.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

But I'm not keen at all with a counter through the rivers & marshes. Argh!

You need marines and specially trained water oriented troops for that and even then it would primarily be low level strikes, sabotage and interdiction rather than assault with heavy infantry.
If Ukraine had people like the UKs marines / SBS or US navy seals - the type who often spend weeks in bilge water and swamps in training then this would be the perfect route, especially against Russian troops who really don't want to suffer the conditions.

The interesting part comes if UKR pushes the line back in the East. To efficiently continue to the border may require UKR strikes within RU!

Part of me has always wanted the Ukrainians to return the favour of what Russians have been doing - one way launches from Russian air and soil into Ukraine while the Ukrainians are asked to fight with one hand behind their backs.
I think once ammunition dumps and command centres start being wiped out with Storm Shadow the weapons then we will know the direction of the assault.
I read sometime recently that Russia has apparently been trying to jam some of the weapons like HIMARS and GLSDB / JDAM for their electronic frequencies and this was why Storm Shadow was sped through - Russia hasn't had enough time to develop effective jamming for the cruise missile.

 

[Chomsky]

First Ukraine said they shot down every russian missile incuding a hypersonic missile. Then later they said one missile got through but no damage. Then it was one patriot missile system was slightly damaged. Then the video came out and we hear one patriot system destroyed and another damaged and Ukraine used 14 patriot missiles in like one minute.

You have a cite for this?

 

[Chomsky]

You need marines and specially trained water oriented troops for that and even then it would primarily be low level strikes, sabotage and interdiction rather than assault with heavy infantry.
If Ukraine had people like the UKs marines / SBS or US navy seals - the type who often spend weeks in bilge water and swamps in training then this would be the perfect route, especially against Russian troops who really don't want to suffer the conditions.

If you want to go to the Crimean line, foot-soldiers ain't gonna' do it.

Part of me has always wanted the Ukrainians to return the favour of what Russians have been doing - one way launches from Russian air and soil into Ukraine while the Ukrainians are asked to fight with one hand behind their backs.
I think once ammunition dumps and command centres start being wiped out with Storm Shadow the weapons then we will know the direction of the assault.

I read sometime recently that Russia has apparently been trying to jam some of the weapons like HIMARS and GLSDB / JDAM for their electronic frequencies and this was why Storm Shadow was sped through - Russia hasn't had enough time to develop effective jamming for the cruise missile.

I too have seen recent reports of more effective HIMAR jamming.

 

[justoneman]

I'm not Ukrainian and always voted for a Republican in every office since I was 18 (now 71). Trump was the first party presidential nominee I ever refused to vote for, and won't vote for either Trump or DeSantis over Ukraine.

After living through the cold war and the threat of the Soviet Union for a lifetime there isn't anyway in Hell I want to go to my grave having seen the western world passively let a new demonic empire reconstitute itself and start another arms race.

Besides, I'm damn tired of seeing the bad guys win. Ukraine is a country of good and decent people, and such folk deserve to be free of scum like Putin and his Russo fascism.

Ukraine is an extremely corrupt country.

 

[Schrott]

What? I find that hard to believe. Shocking, even.

One of the sources is General Buehler, retire, he was a NATO General. Today his job is training senior officer of NATO, especially in Eastern Europe. He still holds all the security clearances, he gets briefed. He does 1 or 2 twice a podcast on youtube for the German TV outlet NDR. He is very, very careful about what he says and quiet often says that is info I can not give away. He is very dry, without any speculations, fact based, always takes some time before he answers, balancing what has to be kept secret and what can be said. Extremely informative. Another source is from ZDF, like NDR part of the national broadcast system. They have interviews with experts, again very professional and fact based. Both agree, that Wagner is basically finished at the present with only 5 to 7,000 professionals left.