• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

I wondered why Boris Johnson was so gung ho to help the Ukrainians, when he was Putin's pal for so long, then this came up:

apnews.com

Boris Johnson says Putin said he could hit him with missile

Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that President Vladimir Putin didn’t seem serious about avoiding war in the days before Russia invaded Ukraine.
apnews.com apnews.com
 
jpn said:
An excellent source is Gen. Mark Hertling, former USAREUR and former commander of the 1st Armored Division (a.k.a. "First Tank"):

"While hopeful proclamation, right now I don’t see those kinds of promises. I’m seeing potential for 100-150 in the short term."

Per Hertling, Abrams tanks will take at least 8 months to deploy, and that would be "lightning speed."

Elsewhere he said we might see advanced tanks from other nations, which require much less logistics support, as early as March. Maybe.
Click to expand...

Given all this and other similar equipment scenarios, it appears to me that while I believe UKR is likely to prevail, it is going to be a long bloody haul.
 
jpn said:
My push-back to your "too little, too late" concern is that the US has had to be cautious.

First, we needed to see if Ukraine's military was for real. We didn't want our high-value weapons being shipped over there only to quickly fall into Russian hands as they overran Ukrainian lines.

Then there's the worry about Putin reacting insanely and breaking out the nukes. As far as has been publicly reported there's been no indication of this even as we cross one "red line" after another (M777s, HIMARS, Bradleys, Patriot missiles).
I'm sure US national intelligence is working overtime to assess how far we can safely push Putin in this regard.

Here is an excellent discussion of why outfitting the Ukrainian military with Abrams will take many months to achieve.
Click to expand...

I do very much agree early-on their was a probing political environment, in seeing how Putin would react. But, it seems we've been long past that period for quite awhile. The thin veneer as to whether this is a proxy was has long ago worn off.
 
JANFU said:
True- Currency is stable. Putin relied on min wage increase. pension increase, subsidies to distract from the war. They cannot borrow. They can tax more companies. They can print more money chasing shortages of goods (recall Germany & inflation?).
Sanctions take time, and so far the oil cap has held.
Still lowering revenues when most everything in their country is built with mainly western parts/teckn impacts production. Russia space program is running into problems as again mainly western parts
These impacts on production will only increase, along with machinery that can't be repaired.
Click to expand...
JANFU said:
24 will be a rough year for Russia
Must import thru other countries=higher prices to not available.
Sanctions are having a severe effect on Russian production.

different topic
I wonder how Europe will be able to replace Ru NG? From what I have read they cannot
Click to expand...

Yes, I believe it will be 2H '23 before Putin gets set on his heels, leading to a disastrous '24 for him.
 
Last edited:


If you advance to 1:20, you can see some footage of what it's like to be in a 40 year old Soviet Era tank when it's firing.

Interesting stuff. And hazardous as hell. It takes a special guy to be a tanker.
 
Hamish Howl said:
I wondered why Boris Johnson was so gung ho to help the Ukrainians, when he was Putin's pal for so long, then this came up:

apnews.com

Boris Johnson says Putin said he could hit him with missile

Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that President Vladimir Putin didn’t seem serious about avoiding war in the days before Russia invaded Ukraine.
apnews.com apnews.com
Click to expand...

That's part of the 3 episode series that is about to air on British TV. Interviews from everyone around at the time and from all sorts of perspectives. I watched the bit Boris talked about Putin mentioning the missile.

It's nothing however compared to Poroshenko's sequence where he speaks about challenging Putin to explain the Russian uniforms / dogtags and other identifying evidence of Russian involvement in Ukraine with Putin looking him in the eye and blatantly lying repeatedly that the Russians are not involved in Crimea, they simply got lost on the way to their holiday destination.

This, all in front of Angela Merkel who tells Putin not to be stupid with his responses. If you can watch - it's good. The sequence between Poroshenko and Putin goes on even further for their second face-to-face meeting with even more lies to Poroshenko's face at 48 minutes in.

www.bbc.co.uk

Putin vs the West - Series 1: 1. My Backyard

When Putin first invades Crimea in 2014, the west’s top leaders struggle to respond.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
 
A group of Pro-Russian lunkheads in Germany are aiding and abetting the enemy:

www.reuters.com

Exclusive: Pro-Kremlin activists in Germany gave money for Russian army gear

A group of pro-Russian activists in Germany donated funds to a Russian army division fighting in Ukraine, and the money was used to purchase walkie-talkie radios, headphones and telephones, according to an officer in the division and messages from the group's organisers seen by Reuters.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
Schrott said:
Click to expand...
Good read, 2 paras caught my attention
From being late to recognize Russia’s threat, reorient Germany, reinvigorate its military, and ramp up weapon supplies to Ukraine, the pragmatist Scholz has now signaled Germany is very much in play – and, indeed, wants hands on the controls. He said Germany would “coordinate” supplies of the Leopard 2 from allies to Ukraine, a power invested in him by German legislation preventing any purchaser of the country’s war-fighting hardware to pass it on to a third state.
Click to expand...
We have to wait and see over the next 6 months how this plays out inside Germany
With Scholz shouldering his way to the diplomatic helm, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may find his territorial ambitions to restore the entirety of Ukraine’s sovereignty including Crimea, before peace talks with Putin, constrained. The German chancellor has been at the forefront of friendly leaders wanting a speedy end to the war and the restoration of economic stability to Europe.
Click to expand...
This is open ended. What borders for one? That said I don't see Ukraine in Crimea this summer.
But I have been wrong before
 
Last edited:
Hamish Howl said:
141 combat missions in that theater? Jesus.
Click to expand...
Yes it is. The air force that was to be destroyed within day is now approaching a year
No one can doubt the quality/motivation of Ukraine's military
 
JANFU said:
Good read, 2 paras caught my attention

We have to wait and see over the next 6 months how this plays out inside Germany

This is open ended. What borders for one? That said I don't see Ukraine in Crimea this summer.
But I have been wrong before
Click to expand...
I thought that was interesting, too. Its logical, everybody wanted Germany to do more and more. Now it does, but it will be on its own terms. I think 99% of the people who screamed more, did not take that into account. It goes from tanks to ammo to Mars rockets and air defense. The more Germany will produce and deliver, the greater its influence at the tables become. Iris, Mader, Leo and so on are leverage. They are behind the closed door armtwisters. Zelensky is a political amateur, especially on the international stage. He has no idea how things are done in the EU. EU is closed door armtwisting. Merkel was a pro at that
Scholz is from Hamburg. People of that region talk sparsely and when it comes to public business statements cryptic, very blunt.
Hamburg is Hanse, the city was built on international trade, which goes over a thousand years back. Trade is closed doors. I am Hanse, my family goes all the way back to beginning of the Hanse. When it comes to business deals, its done behind close doors, not a word ever about any deals, and you better never ever screw me.
Scholz is Hanse and it is worth to look into the history of that Ur-Ur-Ur EU and its dealings and traditions.
I am afraid a few people will get a rude awakening with Scholz and Germany, with the leverage it will get.

I said, that at the Ramstein meeting the Leo was ironed out between the EU partners and the US had to somehow jump in on it. But that was Scholz, he got his conditions. But before he got his conditions, there was some major armtwisting behind closed doors. Scholz is where he wanted to be, the gray eminence in the drivers seat. His speech in the Bundestag expressed it all. That was a rather good speech for him, blunt, to the point, rather confident and telling the Bundestag, that he is driving.
I do not like him and his Party, but that was actually rather good. I give him credit for it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom