[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[NWRatCon]

Ukraine Is Biden’s Defining Issue, and His Biggest Economic Challenge (NYT)​

Russia’s war in Ukraine has become the greatest economic challenge of President Biden’s time in office, threatening to push the world into a recession that could endanger an already fragile American recovery.

The combination of punishing sanctions, championed by Mr. Biden and his allies, and Russia’s retaliation has ricocheted through global food and energy markets, exacerbating already high inflation and undercutting global growth. An oil shock set off by the invasion sent average gasoline prices above $5 a gallon nationally in June, before they fell steadily in July and August.

This week, the European Union is expected to put finishing touches on a plan that would attempt to contain further economic damage by imposing a cap on the price that Russia can earn from selling a barrel of exported oil. The untested idea, engineered by Mr. Biden’s Treasury secretary, is aimed at keeping Russian oil flowing to the global market even as Europe plows ahead with new restrictions on Moscow’s oil sales.

In the year to come, that price cap and other efforts to manage the war’s global fallout should be Mr. Biden’s primary economic focus. With few legislative options available after his party lost control of the House, Mr. Biden will need to find ways to shield American markets from the war’s effects, including new international initiatives to bolster food supplies and ward off a potentially cascading financial crisis in developing nations.

I don't think the average American realizes that the vast majority of inflation is related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While Russia's economy is in a shambles, and unlikely to recover, the impacts around the world from his adventurism have been devastating.

 

[craig]

@Yakshi : I just need to continue our (mine) discussion in case you were truly serious in donating generators:

I hope you know that portable generators cannot be used indoors. The risk of death by poisoning or suffocation is eminent. Better to complement your donation with somethin like a Pro Power Station (example: ALDERIA Power Cube PPS300) . That way they can load the power station with the generator outside and then bring the power station inside in order to use to power for example a heating element. (Still they need access to diesel for the generator....)

Or just donate sleeping bags, portable (driven by alcohol or gasol) stoves and warm cloths

That's what extension cords are for.

 

[NWRatCon]

Moving America's defense industry to war footing.

Despite Ukraine, these aren’t boom times for American armsmakers (Economist).​

As the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank, has highlighted, years of consolidation have made supply lines brittle. Rising prices make suppliers more reluctant to make long-term commitments. That is why companies like Lockheed have been forced to make advance payments to suppliers to set the wheels in motion for higher production—a move that requires big cojones without firm orders from the Pentagon. Furthermore, even as wages rise, it is a struggle to recruit staff. In the Camden area, job postings have long exceeded hirings. The Southern Arkansas University Tech, which trains students in skills such as welding, has recently rebranded its sports teams as “The Rockets” to tout the job opportunities in missile defence.

Part of the problem is that the industry appears in two minds about making heavy weapons. The fastest growing part of defence spending is on snazzy programmes like space and hypersonics. Terrestrial weaponry like vehicles and long-range missiles have been lower-priority. That prompts a former general in Arkansas to gripe that armsmakers often overlook ground forces. Compared with the air force, the army has historically been seen as “just a bunch of dog-faced soldiers trudging in the mud”, he growls.

The War in Ukraine Has Exposed a Critical American Vulnerability (Atlantic)​

Shoring up the nation’s supply chain is the single greatest challenge to the national defense.

The ’90s brought the era of globalization, the tech boom, and management philosophies that embraced cheap offshore production, creating a profitable but brittle global supply chain, one that no longer had national security front of mind. Though the U.S. maintained a robust, mobilized military, it had demobilized its manufacturing base. In the past two years, pandemic-related shortages have brought awareness to the weaknesses in our supply chain, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shown the dangers of being economically tethered to an authoritarian state.

So far in Ukraine, a globalized supply chain has proved a shield that the free world has raised against Russian aggression. Vladimir Putin underestimated both his economic vulnerability and the ability of NATO to come together and exploit that vulnerability. But Russia’s troubles should put not only the tin-pot autocrats of the world on notice but also the great democracies—like the United States—that are similarly vulnerable to economic warfare.

 

[Litwin]

 

[JANFU]

 

[Yakshi]

@Yakshi : I just need to continue our (mine) discussion in case you were truly serious in donating generators:

I hope you know that portable generators cannot be used indoors. The risk of death by poisoning or suffocation is eminent. Better to complement your donation with somethin like a Pro Power Station (example: ALDERIA Power Cube PPS300) . That way they can load the power station with the generator outside and then bring the power station inside in order to use to power for example a heating element. (Still they need access to diesel for the generator....)

Or just donate sleeping bags, portable (driven by alcohol or gasol) stoves and warm cloths

I appreciate your concern. Most apartments there have enclosed "balconies"--sometimes multiple balconies--that serve as a heat/cold buffer and have lots of windows for ventilation. People there have been using generators on these balconies with their windows open.

 

[Roadvirus]

Bizarre

"Sorry your kid died. Here's some hotel towels fellow Comrades looted from Ukraine to compensate you for your loss."

 

[Roadvirus]

SBU arrests "spotter" for Russian forces' missile strikes in Zaporizhzhya Oblast

Ukraine defense industry worker detained for adjusting enemy fire near Zaporizhzhya

Ukraine’s SBU security service has detained an enemy spotter in Zaporizhzhya Oblast for providing Russian forces with information on strategic Ukrainian infrastructure, the SBU's press office said on Telegram on Nov. 29.

english.nv.ua

Ukraine forces down a Russian Su-24 & a Su-25/repels multiple Russian force movements

Ukraine downs Su-25 and Su-24 military jets and repels attack near 10 settlements

According to the military, Russian forces forward movement was stopped near Novoselivske and Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast and Serebrianks, Verkhniokamyanske, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Pervomayske, Opytne, Nevelske and Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast.

english.nv.ua

Russian Thievery: Russian military steals nearly 900 tons of grain in Luhansk Oblast

Russia steals almost 900 tons of grain in Luhansk Oblast

Invading Russian forces have looted the Starobilsky grain elevator in Luhansk Oblast, taking almost 900 tons of grain, Ukraine’s National Resistance Center reported on Nov. 28.

english.nv.ua

Estonia FM: Wagner Group should be treated like ISIS

Wagner Group should be treated same as ISIS, Estonian FM says

The international community should treat Russian private military company Wagner Group the same way as it treats Islamic State terrorists, Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu said in an interview with Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on Nov. 28.

english.nv.ua

Izyum museum employee protected 300 yr old printing of Christian Gospel from looting Russian forces

Izyum museum employee saves 300-year-old Gospel from Russian invaders

A museum employee in Izyum saved a 300-year-old printing of the Christian Gospels from Russian looters, Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne reported on Nov. 28.

english.nv.ua

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

Boom O'Clock

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

Purely a defensive weapon

 

[Hamish Howl]

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

Why has NATO not developed for deployment cheap drones comparable to the Iranian ones?

The capacity is available, the tech need not be expensive, cheap suicide drones

 

[Hamish Howl]

This video is 16 years old, and totally saw this whole thing coming.

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

Man claim the Wagner head was a pretty boy in prison
Think this guys days may be numbered

 

[JANFU]

 

[Schrott]

Why has NATO not developed for deployment cheap drones comparable to the Iranian ones?

The capacity is available, the tech need not be expensive, cheap suicide drones

Since we are Nations of the plenty we overdesign everything.
From the coffee machine to the car. We cannot have anything simple, everything has to have all the bells and whistles.
Simple has been long time out of the window.

 

[JANFU]

Since we are Nations of the plenty we overdesign everything.
From the coffee machine to the car. We cannot have anything simple, everything has to have all the bells and whistles.
Simple has been long time out of the window.

I am sure Ukraine can design, build and use them. Just needs parts & equipment. Sure Ukraine could build them and well under 50 K

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

An Adelaide-built mobile X-ray unit has been credited with saving the lives of several thousand wounded Ukrainian soldiers after 11 of the hi-tech units were deployed to the frontline in the war against Russia.
The hi-tech Adelaide X-ray company Micro X supplied 11 of its Rover Mobile DR X-ray units to Ukraine in May after they were purchased by four US-based Ukrainian aid organisations.
Since then, the units have been in active use in the field across the war-torn country, with one single unit capturing more than 6000 images in the past 45 days.
The lightweight units can be easily transported in war zones and provide army doctors with real-time images of the injuries sustained by troops, meaning they get immediate and appropriate care.

X factor saving lives in Ukraine

An Adelaide-built mobile X-ray unit has been credited with saving the lives of several thousand wounded Ukrainian soldiers after 11 of the hi-tech units were deployed to the frontline in the war against Russia.

amp.theaustralian.com.au

 

[maxparrish]

Why has NATO not developed for deployment cheap drones comparable to the Iranian ones?

The capacity is available, the tech need not be expensive, cheap suicide drones

I imagine it stems from several factors...

1) Nato countries rely heavily on aircraft for tasks that in other less wealthy nations are handled by ground forces. We see this in lack of some kinds of US ground weapons... only a small warheaded surface to surface missile system (HIMARS, M270) whose range is considered no more than "artillery range" (M31A) with a very short range ballistic (ATACMS) as the largest. We also see this in the provision of limited numbers of SAM systems compared to Russia, in modest amounts of artillery, etc.

Countries that lack airpower, or whose aircraft cannot match NATOs, the alternatives are lavish numbers of SAMS, tons of Artillery, large numbers of deep strike surface to surface missiles with very large warheads, ground launched cruise missiles, and lots of drones of all sizes and purposes.

2) Prop driven suicide drones with modest sized GP warheads (90 to 140 lbs) guided by commercial GPS are not sexy. Cruise Missiles and Large JDAMS delivered by strike aircraft are.

3) Suicide drones for fixed targets are not necessarily useful. Iran's drones are used to his power plants and residential areas, targets that are not normally slated for lethal destruction.

All that said, I think it is VERY CLEAR that the west is going to have to revisit its thinking on drones. Slow, small, and hard to detect these weapons are cheap and if used in quantity can drain a SAM system of far more expensive AA missiles.