[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[Chomsky]

We're not pushing for total unconditional defeat, just the kind where they gain nothing from starting this mess.

We also have to make them pay a heavy price from their perspective not ours. They still seem to think they can out suffer us or bully us.

Exactly. RU must be put in a position where future cost analysis results in a net negative. Because that's the exact computation being done by RU in deciding future actions.

 

[Chomsky]

RU attack also seems to be intensifying in Bakhmut itself, and they seem to be (slowly) picking-up some ground.

 

[JANFU]

 

[Chomsky]

I was married to a Ukrainian woman.

I have legitimate pity for the Russians.

Ukrainians are more like Poles than Russians. And they are just as stubborn.

Putin could fill the country with Russians and they would fine a way to resist. This is how crafty these people can be. That same grandmother kept us entertained with stories of their detention; how as slave seamstresses they waged their own campaign; they simply failed to tie of the thread of the buttons they sewed on pants. Hard to charge the enemy when your pants fall down.

If I were Putie....I'd be back room begging for a truce....He's have to learn to speak Canadian he'll need to learn to say "I'm sorry"



Well done!


Provided an overall view of what's going on.

Drone on drone air battles! No surprise!

I love this guy, his flat delivery gives authenticity and a neat way of explaining ...The Iranians are helping with their drones, so the Polish give them their anti-drone system and he says "so there's no problem there.." 150% confident the Ukrainians will win! Simple

The way Denys handled the death of the American vet soldier was both masterful & classy.

I generally abhor that old term "classy/class-act", as it's been so abused and misappropriated over the generations. But, I think it's appropriate here.

It's easy to overlook some of Denys' subtleties by believing his vocabulary is limited by his ESL. But he actually exhibits a very high (& dry!) sense of humor!

 

[multivita-man]

They won't.

Which is unfortunate.

Your opinion seems to rely on the assumption that the west can force Ukraine to negotiate by withdrawing support. It can't. Ukraine's position is clear and has been for a long time. The war will never end until all Ukrainian land is returned.

Other countries can't control what Ukraine does but they can decide the extent to which they support Ukraine and the conditions on which it provides its support. And Ukraine cannot fight Russia alone. It's absolutely in our interests to defend Ukraine against the kinds of naked aggression we've seen over the last 10 years, but it's not in our interests to keep this war raging into perpetuity if there's a way out, even if it's not what everyone wants.

Ukraine's efforts to defend its sovereignty are heroic, but let's not lose sight of the fact that Russia is not just at war with Ukraine; they're at war with the American geopolitical machine. I've pushed back on a lot of the pro-Kremlin troll farming I've read here and on other sites, but it's not pro-Kremlin to want this war to come to an end, for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the enormous amount of stress that commodity prices are going to have on regimes all over the world. The ones who suffer the most will be the poorer nations, and the poorest in the richer nations. They're going to get tired of supporting Ukraine is there's no end in sight to this conflict. Ukraine's courage aside, you have to be a realist here.

Beyond economics, the risks of a rapidly series of escalations cannot be ignored -- it's completely irresponsible to prosecute a war on the basis that "We're right, so **** civilization."

It's more than a little funny that you feel important enough to deem Ukraine's territorial integrity to be "sticky" or to be "inclined" to surrender Ukrainian land so that you feel better.

It's my tax dollars that are defending their territory. Couldn't give a drop of rodent piss how they feel about my comments.

 

[Chomsky]

These "short range" rockets have a longer range than ATACMS, with comparable CEP accuracy. Too bad Russia continues to escalate the war without the slightest hesitation, but that Ukraine cannot have a supplier.

In short, those hoping Russia would have to run out of precision missiles or long range drones by sacrificing thousands of Ukrainians just saw their "strategy" implode.

Damn. That's a helluva' weapon - then. I never realized Iran had this type of stuff.

 

[JANFU]

 

[Fearandloathing]

The way Denys handled the death of the American vet soldier was both masterful & classy.

I generally abhor that old term "classy/class-act", as it's been so abused and misappropriated over the generations. But, I think it's appropriate here.

It's easy to overlook some of Denys' subtleties by believing his vocabulary is limited by his ESL. But he actually exhibits a very high (& dry!) sense of humor!

The eastern European dialect for some reason makes them sound stupid. My Grandmother was under estimated all her life because her English was so poor.

What I have seen here, is that the Ukrainians are certainly united, and unflappable. Then you meet the president....who is a class act, unflappable and has street cred to the end of time.
The other barrier they have done away with is the idea that east Europeans are kind of stupid....but look how long it took them to get perfect with that hardware. I recall reading early in the campaign they destroyed 60+ tanks in one day.

He has just about all of Canada chanting "Get that ****! (Almost all of Saskatchewan, Alberta and half of Manitoba are of Ukrainian descent.)

 

[multivita-man]

True.

But given the alliance UKR has shown in our battle against Putin in that part of the world, we can't just turn our back on UKR desire to address the horrendous atrocities Putin has inflicted upon them and their taken territories.

What can we do to Putin? If Putin burns at the stake, it'll be at the hands of Russian executioners and no one else.

 

[Fearandloathing]

Which is unfortunate.



Other countries can't control what Ukraine does but they can decide the extent to which they support Ukraine and the conditions on which it provides its support. And Ukraine cannot fight Russia alone. It's absolutely in our interests to defend Ukraine against the kinds of naked aggression we've seen over the last 10 years, but it's not in our interests to keep this war raging into perpetuity if there's a way out, even if it's not what everyone wants.

Ukraine's efforts to defend its sovereignty are heroic, but let's not lose sight of the fact that Russia is not just at war with Ukraine; they're at war with the American geopolitical machine. I've pushed back on a lot of the pro-Kremlin troll farming I've read here and on other sites, but it's not pro-Kremlin to want this war to come to an end, for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the enormous amount of stress that commodity prices are going to have on regimes all over the world. The ones who suffer the most will be the poorer nations, and the poorest in the richer nations. They're going to get tired of supporting Ukraine is there's no end in sight to this conflict. Ukraine's courage aside, you have to be a realist here.

Beyond economics, the risks of a rapidly series of escalations cannot be ignored -- it's completely irresponsible to prosecute a war on the basis that "We're right, so **** civilization."



It's my tax dollars that are defending their territory. Couldn't give a drop of rodent piss how they feel about my comments.

We'll see.


Your opinion is not appreciated. Yeah, year, was is hell blah, blah.

But for once, maybe the US should stay till the end...........

How many countries has the US invaded since WW2?

How many dead?

How many countries did you rake up to in on your stupid regime change ideas

The United States has an obligation to stand up here. For once!

It's been you and Russia beating each other since WW2. You created NATO in to protect your own soil, but sneer at it.

But, like Iran, Afghanista, Vietnam and even tiny little Grenada, you'll walk away when Wall tells you to.

 

[multivita-man]

We're not pushing for total unconditional defeat, just the kind where they gain nothing from starting this mess.

We also have to make them pay a heavy price from their perspective not ours. They still seem to think they can out suffer us or bully us.

I think they know that they can't bully us at this point; they're the ones getting pushed around. What Russia's hoping for now is to push this conflict into winter so that European support for the conflict craters, which would give him some of the leverage he has lost, back.

Look, this whole thing is complicated, with lots of variables and potential paths to take. I'm not even against NATO military involvement - there's an argument for NATO military involvement, but not in the context of responding to a nuclear escalation, and not without offering Putin some face-saving exit first.

 

[multivita-man]

So youre gonna force Ukraine to capitulate after Russia killed so many of them?

You and this guy are very much alike:

View attachment 67418333

Oh look! Another facile Neville Chamberlain reference without any recognition of the stark differences between Czechoslovakia in 1938, when there was absolutely no military mobilization against Nazi Germany, and Ukraine in 2022, where Putler has already sunk a shit ton of costs into this conflict..

 

[maxparrish]

A lot of what ifs there. What ifs can cause paralysis.

That is what is behind Russia's talk about nukes. To install fear, paralyze, influence the population in the West and it has some success.
When ever something big happens, like the bridge, everybody in the West screams the nukes are coming. If something strange happens, the nukes are coming.
If one has followed official Russian rhetoric, then one noticed, that Russia has quit talking about nukes.
Now somebody will argue, because the nukes are coming.................................................................

Exactly. From the first day of the war the west has let Putin's barrage of threats and "redlines" shake our confidence and vastly slow our decision making. Eventually, in many cases, we have overcome our trepidation and dithering and woke up to the fact that we are being played. Yet, in spite of 8 months of lessons we STILL freak out when Ukraine's gains trigger the same from Putin, or as you point out, even when Russia doesn't say a word.

Like Pavlov's (Putin's) dogs, we are well conditioned to be terrified of winning.

Putin's speech that of which have been clear and those that were inferential have already communicated which part is bluff and which is more serious. An attack and invasion of Russia itself by NATO is clearly a trigger. Anything short of that isn't. In the meantime Putin's denunciations of the west providing airplanes, tanks, longer range missiles, etc. is just more hot air. Putin is clearly aware that if he uses even a single nuke, that NATO will intervene in Ukraine to wipe out all of Russia's ground and air forces, creating a fait accompli handing occupied Ukraine back to Ukraine.

Therefore there is no point in listening to the brow mopping anguish from the wobbles, the Kerch bridge could be hit today and full collapse and nothing will change. Putin will dig deep into his depleting inventory, and launch a flury of missiles for a day or two. He might release strategic bombers to try their hand at dumb bombing some cities, accepting the serious losses to Ukrainian sams. But in the final analysis, at the moment he has nothing more to escalate with.

In three months with the arrival of large numbers of Iranian arms that may be far different, which is why we must ignore Putin's nonsense and take the winning shots NOW.

 

[multivita-man]

We'll see.


Your opinion is not appreciated. Yeah, year, was is hell blah, blah.

But for once, maybe the US should stay till the end...........

How many countries has the US invaded since WW2?

How many dead?

How many countries did you rake up to in on your stupid regime change ideas

The United States has an obligation to stand up here. For once!

It's been you and Russia beating each other since WW2. You created NATO in to protect your own soil, but sneer at it.

But, like Iran, Afghanista, Vietnam and even tiny little Grenada, you'll walk away when Wall tells you to.

Cool rant, bro.

Anyway, last time I looked, the United States has supported Ukraine more than pretty much everybody else -- combined.

Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.

www.ifw-kiel.de

Avoiding nuclear escalation isn't just in US's interest; if you're like most Canadians you live an hour's drive from our borders and those radioactive clouds aren't going to respect your border control checkpoints.

 

[Variant]

I think they know that they can't bully us at this point; they're the ones getting pushed around. What Russia's hoping for now is to push this conflict into winter so that European support for the conflict craters, which would give him some of the leverage he has lost, back.

Look, this whole thing is complicated, with lots of variables and potential paths to take. I'm not even against NATO military involvement - there's an argument for NATO military involvement, but not in the context of responding to a nuclear escalation, and not without offering Putin some face-saving exit first.

You need to stop wringing your hands.

This isn't about nuclear weapons.

The Russian narrative is that they can outlast us and that we are weak. We shouldn't be looking to find an exit for Russia, but rather overturn that narrative. They break before we do. They aren't stronger than us and they never were.

They should never even think about pulling this kind of thing again, let alone have delusions that they would win.

This kind of thing has to be put in the past, so we can stop reliving it.

 

[craig]

And this is also why the conflict is becoming incredibly dangerous now. I'm just trying to game this all out:

- Russia drops a low-yield nuke -->

- NATO is now in a position where we have to respond militarily (seems to be our stated position) -->

- So NATO then tries to use overwhelming force to destroy whatever's left of Russia's troops in Ukraine -->

- Maybe Russia's army in Ukraine is destroyed -->

- Then what?

* What if Russia begins launching nuclear weapons at Ukraine from within Russia?

* What if Russia mistakenly believes we're trying to attack Russian targets within Russia?

Once Ukrain is attacked with a nuclear weapon they are free to retaliate with a nuclear weapon, who knows how they got it.

 

[multivita-man]

Once Ukrain is attacked with a nuclear weapon they are free to retaliate with a nuclear weapon, who knows how they got it.

That would pretty much lead to WWIII.

 

[Cardinal]

Just imagine the front-line morale such a conscript produces?

That guy's gonna surrender so fast it'll create a sonic boom.

 

[Variant]

That would pretty much lead to WWIII.

Yes. Russia using nukes in Ukraine is likely to lead directly to WWIII.

 

[Chomsky]

The eastern European dialect for some reason makes them sound stupid. My Grandmother was under estimated all her life because her English was so poor.

Yep. Agreed. As was seen by all the Polish Jokes in my city as I was growing-up.

What I have seen here, is that the Ukrainians are certainly united, and unflappable. Then you meet the president....who is a class act, unflappable and has street cred to the end of time.
The other barrier they have done away with is the idea that east Europeans are kind of stupid....but look how long it took them to get perfect with that hardware. I recall reading early in the campaign they destroyed 60+ tanks in one day.

It's fair to say Ukrainians will be training NATO forces after this is over. No one is more tested & battle-hardened today.

He has just about all of Canada chanting "Get that ****! (Almost all of Saskatchewan, Alberta and half of Manitoba are of Ukrainian descent.)

There's no shortage of Poles up there, either.

 

[Chomsky]

What can we do to Putin? If Putin burns at the stake, it'll be at the hands of Russian executioners and no one else.

We can make him pay a price where the calculus for further attacks & encroachments is a net negative.

Hopefully, some things will occur:

1] Putin's military will be sorely degraded

2] Putin's political capital will be likewise degraded

3] Putin may even be removed from power (this one's a reach)

 

[Fearandloathing]

Yep. Agreed. As was seen by all the Polish Jokes in my city as I was growing-up.



It's fair to say Ukrainians will be training NATO forces after this is over. No one is more tested & battle-hardened today.



There's no shortage of Poles up there, either.

I'm one of them.

I was once pretty good with a rifle at 200 yards. I used to like to explode pumpkins with my Ithica Deerslayer 222 & 8X scope.
Now that I have lived a full life or two to.....the opportunity to make some Russian heads explode would be welcome. I am unfit to serve because of health issues, but would in a second, love to have the chance to make some Russian rapists heads explode...

"Here mother ****er...this one's for Sophie!"

Pacification has limits

 

[PoS]

Oh look! Another facile Neville Chamberlain reference without any recognition of the stark differences between Czechoslovakia in 1938, when there was absolutely no military mobilization against Nazi Germany, and Ukraine in 2022, where Putler has already sunk a shit ton of costs into this conflict..

You know what? Youre right... your capitulation plan is way worse than anything Neville Chamberlain proposed, especially since Ukraine managed to beat back the Russians, and now theyre winning, but you want to put a stop to all that because... youre wetting your pants because Putin says he'll use nukes. Heck, even Chamberlain would shake his head at what youre proposing.

Maybe youre not like Neville Chamberlain at all, but more like this man:

 

[Fearandloathing]

Once Ukrain is attacked with a nuclear weapon they are free to retaliate with a nuclear weapon, who knows how they got it.

At that point who cares...

 

[Chomsky]

Exactly. From the first day of the war the west has let Putin's barrage of threats and "redlines" shake our confidence and vastly slow our decision making. Eventually, in many cases, we have overcome our trepidation and dithering and woke up to the fact that we are being played. Yet, in spite of 8 months of lessons we STILL freak out when Ukraine's gains trigger the same from Putin, or as you point out, even when Russia doesn't say a word.

Like Pavlov's (Putin's) dogs, we are well conditioned to be terrified of winning.

Well stated! "Terrified of winning!". I couldn't put it better, myself.

Putin's speech that of which have been clear and those that were inferential have already communicated which part is bluff and which is more serious. An attack and invasion of Russia itself by NATO is clearly a trigger. Anything short of that isn't. In the meantime Putin's denunciations of the west providing airplanes, tanks, longer range missiles, etc. is just more hot air. Putin is clearly aware that if he uses even a single nuke, that NATO will intervene in Ukraine to wipe out all of Russia's ground and air forces, creating a fait accompli handing occupied Ukraine back to Ukraine.

Therefore there is no point in listening to the brow mopping anguish from the wobbles, the Kerch bridge could be hit today and full collapse and nothing will change. Putin will dig deep into his depleting inventory, and launch a flury of missiles for a day or two. He might release strategic bombers to try their hand at dumb bombing some cities, accepting the serious losses to Ukrainian sams. But in the final analysis, at the moment he has nothing more to escalate with.

In three months with the arrival of large numbers of Iranian arms that may be far different, which is why we must ignore Putin's nonsense and take the winning shots NOW.

I must admit, Iran is becoming a big problem!