[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[Chomsky]

It appears the Russian-installed civilian leadership in Kherson have been evacuated. This comes from Denys Davydov. Here's today's post:

1] Denys seem highly optimistic in Kherson being liberated very soon, much more optimistic than I.

2] Belgorad is heating up!

 

[Variant]

All of what you say is true, but we're in October of 2022, not February or not in 2014. I would agree with your base argument if we were rolling over, but we're not. We've already made Putin and Russia pay a very heavy price. They're losing so badly that they are throwing untrained civilians to the front lines and getting them killed 10 days after being "recruited" - that pretty much tells you all you need to know about the state of things in Russia now. Putin is going to walk away (or be dragged away) as the clear loser. The problem of pushing for a total, unconditional defeat is that you remove the costs of escalation. This isn't a Hollywood film; this is the real world.

We're not pushing for total unconditional defeat, just the kind where they gain nothing from starting this mess.

We also have to make them pay a heavy price from their perspective not ours. They still seem to think they can out suffer us or bully us.

 

[multivita-man]

Ukraine is not going to accept that.

They should, and we should consider withdrawing our support if they don't. The war needs to end, and sacrifices are going to have to be made, or we risk a much wider, costlier war, which is nobody's interests.

And what will do if Russia wants to keep Donbas and all the illegal annexations? If you'll let him keep it then Ukraine will keep fighting. Then what are you going to do then? Give up on them?

Donbas is stickier. I'm inclined to tell Russia to get ****ed on keeping the Donbas -- Crimea would be enough. But perhaps we could keep some portion of it as a kind of jointly patrolled demilitarized zone.

Putin has no flexibility, so either you bow down to his demands or stand up to him.

Not so. He waited a long time before committing to a full-on invasion, and despite his bluster, he hasn't attacked a NATO country. He measures and calculates because he wouldn't survive long if he didn't. Most of the people we don't like in positions of power aren't 'insane' or suicidal. They just think in terms we don't recognize.

Thats what you believe, but history has shown that Putin has never backed down, not even once.

Because he was never forced to pay for his aggression - it's a little different 8 months into the conflict.

If you think China will just stay away from Taiwan after we bow down to Putin only means you have a very naive worldview, because history has always shown that weakness always invites more aggression.

I never said that they would just stay away. What China does with regard to Taiwan will depend on how they interpret our willingness and readiness to make them pay for aggression. They clearly know we're willing, but they could question our readiness at this point in time.

 

[Variant]

They should, and we should consider withdrawing our support if they don't. The war needs to end, and sacrifices are going to have to be made, or we risk a much wider, costlier war, which is nobody's interests.

If we withdrawal our support (which would be amazing in a war where our side isn't losing) the damage to us will be irreparable to us and to the trust of all of our allies. It would definitely lead to a costlier war where we would be ceding much more and likely fighting alone.

 

[JANFU]

 

[Median Voter]

If we withdrawal our support (which would be amazing in a war where our side isn't losing) the damage to us will be irreparable to us and to the trust of all of our allies. It would definitely lead to a costlier war where we would be ceding much more and likely fighting alone.

Actually, the US has been carrying the vast majority of the burden, when we're a continent away. It should be Europe's responsibility, and if they dont wanna foot the bill, the blame lies upon them.

 

[Fledermaus]

Actually, the US has been carrying the vast majority of the burden, when we're a continent away. It should be Europe's responsibility, and if they dont wanna foot the bill, the blame lies upon them.

The US disagrees.

 

[Variant]

Actually, the US has been carrying the vast majority of the burden, when we're a continent away. It should be Europe's responsibility, and if they dont wanna foot the bill, the blame lies upon them.

That's because we find it in our best interests.

I disagree though Ukraine is carrying the majority of the burden.

 

[Chomsky]

It appears that - Musk style - he reversed course again, and will continue to provide service to Ukraine. “The hell with it … even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free,” a tweet from Musk’s verified account read Saturday.

His cavalier attitude in this is unbecoming the gravity of the situation.

 

[Chomsky]

New information. Ukrainian troops are on the move again in Kherson. If they get to Mylove, they can cut off all Russian resupply as both available bridges and ferry operations will be within short range artillery. All Russian forces north of the Dnipro River will be cut off. Russian loyalist have been evacuated from Kherson.

Ukraine has begun active counteroffensive in Kherson region, Russian-backed official says​

From CNN's Katharina Krebs: "Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kherson has intensified, according to a senior official in the southern region’s Russian-backed administration.
“Indeed, the active phase of fighting, which we expected, has begun,” Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head in Kherson said on Saturday, while speaking to the pro-Kremlin “Soloviev Live” show.
He added the “(Russian) army is ready to repel all these attacks and stand to the end, because Kherson region is part of the Russian Federation.”
According to Stremousov, the goal of the Ukraine forces is to gain a foothold on the right bank of the Dnipro river. He urged residents in the area to “seize the moment, call the hotline, pick up the children and send them on vacation.”
On Thursday, the Russian-appointed head of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, asked the Russian leadership to help evacuate locals to other regions in order to protect them from missile strikes."

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They may also be making a mad dash (a Thunder Run) to Mariupol. If so, they will be able to cut off resupply to Donestk as well, putting Russian sea corridors within reach of Neptunes and drones, and making the Russian offensive in Luhansk a pyrrhic effort.

One of the Russian Commissars in charge of the Mobilization effort hung himself.

Given what he & his are doing to those helpless and hapless mobilized RU & UKR citizens, it's a wonder any of the can live with themselves.

 

[Chomsky]

The rats win.

. . . and cockroaches . . .

 

[Cardinal]

Actually, the US has been carrying the vast majority of the burden, when we're a continent away. It should be Europe's responsibility, and if they dont wanna foot the bill, the blame lies upon them.

Don't worry, we're perfectly happy to help.

 

[Doug64]

Actually, the US has been carrying the vast majority of the burden, when we're a continent away.

I would argue that Europe has been carrying a different kind of burden, a massive hit to their energy supply. The US's situation is bad (exacerbated by the Democrats' determination to drive under fossil fuels, granted, a major driver of the hit they're going to take in the elections in a few weeks), Europe's is much worse.

 

[Variant]

. . . and cockroaches . . .

Weirdly enough rats and cockroaches benefit from human settlement more than most.

 

[JANFU]

 

[Chomsky]

In a million years I never thought I'd feel like the Green party would be my spiritual comrades, but no doubt were I German citizen I'd be all in. 95 to 5 vote striking down any reduction in military aid to Ukraine or in negotiated appeasement of Putin ,,,

That sure blows away "Green" stereotypes & expectations from an American perspective!

 

[Yakshi]

They should

They won't.

and we should consider withdrawing our support if they don't. The war needs to end, and sacrifices are going to have to be made, or we risk a much wider, costlier war, which is nobody's interests.

Your opinion seems to rely on the assumption that the west can force Ukraine to negotiate by withdrawing support. It can't. Ukraine's position is clear and has been for a long time. The war will never end until all Ukrainian land is returned.

Donbas is stickier. I'm inclined to tell Russia to get ****ed on keeping the Donbas -- Crimea would be enough. But perhaps we could keep some portion of it as a kind of jointly patrolled demilitarized zone.

It's more than a little funny that you feel important enough to deem Ukraine's territorial integrity to be "sticky" or to be "inclined" to surrender Ukrainian land so that you feel better.

 

[Chomsky]

With Russian missiles stocks pretty much empty, now theyre buying them from Iran so they can continue their terror strikes against civilian targets.

Yep. Iran has become a big problem.

 

[PoS]

They should, and we should consider withdrawing our support if they don't. The war needs to end, and sacrifices are going to have to be made, or we risk a much wider, costlier war, which is nobody's interests.



Donbas is stickier. I'm inclined to tell Russia to get ****ed on keeping the Donbas -- Crimea would be enough. But perhaps we could keep some portion of it as a kind of jointly patrolled demilitarized zone.

So youre gonna force Ukraine to capitulate after Russia killed so many of them?

You and this guy are very much alike:

 

[Fearandloathing]

I think if and when they come spilling over into Ukraine they may regret it.

I was married to a Ukrainian woman.

I have legitimate pity for the Russians.

Ukrainians are more like Poles than Russians. And they are just as stubborn.

Putin could fill the country with Russians and they would fine a way to resist. This is how crafty these people can be. That same grandmother kept us entertained with stories of their detention; how as slave seamstresses they waged their own campaign; they simply failed to tie of the thread of the buttons they sewed on pants. Hard to charge the enemy when your pants fall down.

If I were Putie....I'd be back room begging for a truce....He's have to learn to speak Canadian he'll need to learn to say "I'm sorry"

As time goes by, I'm becoming even more a fan of Denys Davydov.

He more than justified my support today, by his handling of the topic he presents at 10:52, below:

Well done!


Provided an overall view of what's going on.

Drone on drone air battles! No surprise!

I love this guy, his flat delivery gives authenticity and a neat way of explaining ...The Iranians are helping with their drones, so the Polish give them their anti-drone system and he says "so there's no problem there.." 150% confident the Ukrainians will win! Simple

 

[Chomsky]

No, let Russia walk away with the prospects of an imperfect peace in which all sides can save face and walk away with most of what they want. Holding the line to achieve total Russian defeat in Ukraine is a good way to start a massive war that goes well beyond anything we can currently imagine.



Bringing the war to an end would actually allow us to divert more of our attention toward Asia. We're not set up to support two major wars on different continents - everyone knows that by now, or at least they should.

True.

But given the alliance UKR has shown in our battle against Putin in that part of the world, we can't just turn our back on UKR desire to address the horrendous atrocities Putin has inflicted upon them and their taken territories.

 

[PoS]

Wow, talk about complete idiocy...

 

[Chomsky]

That is what is behind Russia's talk about nukes. To install fear, paralyze, influence the population in the West and it has some success.
When ever something big happens, like the bridge, everybody in the West screams the nukes are coming. If something strange happens, the nukes are coming.
If one has followed official Russian rhetoric, then one noticed, that Russia has quit talking about nukes.
Now somebody will argue, because the nukes are coming.................................................................

LMAO!

But probably true . . .

(IMO - if the nukes didn't come after Kerch, they're not coming)

 

[Chomsky]

Just imagine the front-line morale such a conscript produces?

 

[maxparrish]

With Russian missiles stocks pretty much empty, now theyre buying them from Iran so they can continue their terror strikes against civilian targets.

These "short range" rockets have a longer range than ATACMS, with comparable CEP accuracy. Too bad Russia continues to escalate the war without the slightest hesitation, but that Ukraine cannot have a supplier.

In short, those hoping Russia would have to run out of precision missiles or long range drones by sacrificing thousands of Ukrainians just saw their "strategy" implode.