I pretty much agree. A few additional thoughts:
1) "Mobilization" of industry suggests that production is inadequate (esp under sanctions) and the need to dip into stored reserves and rehab them, and repair damaged vehicles, is getting very urgent. Given their loss of thousands of vehicles, I am not surprised.
2) Putin wants to avoid general mobilization at all costs. He has sold this war as a "special operation" and wants to prove Russia's peacetime military and air can deal with it. He is also aware of the unpopularity of conscription, and the economic and social uncertainties of turning Russia into a militarized nation.
3) Russians have finally found a strategy that works. No grand armored sweeps across the fields of Ukraine will has worked. What has worked is concentrating most of the theater artillery in a front 50km wide and using their endless stockpiles of shells, Putin knowing full well that Ukrainian air cannot reach them, Ukrainian spotting drones will likely be shot down, and the fate of civilians he is "liberating" (to their graves) is irrelevant.
4) Ukrainians have desperately needed heavy weapons, especially deeper strike weapons that can do what their aircraft cannot - more safely take out artillery batteries, disrupt supply lines, and blast staging areas and command n' control centers. They have been asking for these weapons since the last week of February, and while its been clear to the expert public that they were needed and issue warnings that the present situation was inevitable without them - key decision makers failed to heed their advice.
5) So the opportunity for a clear Ukrainian pushback of eastern and southern fronts evaporated in 3 plus months of allied dithering and penny pack deliverance of token numbers of critical heavy weapons. The fight is now merely to stop the Russian advance and gain some kind of significant advantage to force negotiations on Putin.
6) Without forcing that advantage, the Russians know Ukriane will run out of ammo for its soviet made weapons, and won't negotiate or stop until they have a reason... UNLESS we provide a reason soon: shipping large numbers of decisive weapons that repeats the disaster of Russia's advance on Kiev.
There are now two pivotal weapon systems and ordinance that can accomplish that: Himars and NASAMS. Nasams can provide excellent short and medium range protection, mainly from aircraft and cruise missiles (not so much ballistic missiles). HIMARS can strike at least 43 miles deep, sufficiently out of range of Russian artillery to protect them.
The delivery of 60 Himars would end this Russian advantage and change the 2022 fate of Ukraine.
Naturally, we have not the courage or good sense to do so.
