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[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

Except you are mostly pointing out irrelevant differences between the conflicts. Whether "half way" around the world or not, the only relevant factors are the differences in will power, military power, economic power, and defensible terrain.

Russia's intervention in Ukraine, like the US intervention in Vietnam are subject to similiar constraints. In this case Russia's economy and military is far more damaged by the war than that of the US in Vietnam, so what remains is will power. Being a ruthless autocracy, Russia's will power (at the moment) is still intact.

So the questions become: a) what is Ukraine's will power compared to that of the US? At the moment I have no concern regarding Ukraine's will power. It's back is against the wall and it knows it's a fight to a bitter end and b) the US is a democracy, public opinion is a factor. It's will power seems to be there, but possibly conditional.

Another unknown is how viable is a partisan insurgency war, should Ukraine be more or less occupied? Unlike Vietnam the flat and open terrain sucks for such operations.

As I said, much depends on who loses their will to fight first, and if Ukraine can sustain fighting forever on the level of an insurgency.

As for the Dnieper, the chances of Russia reaching it and securing it as a new border near zero in this campaign season. The rains will come in October, and I doubt the front will move after that.


LOL As always you always come up with these excellent analysis and assessments that I easily can wrap my head around. But those are the fundamentals as you list them
 
Ummmm...I think he was suggesting that in this particular situation, Russia is much like the US in fighting a war where the locals (VC and NVA) don't grow so tired because it is their homeland, and their suppliers aren't losing troops.

In other words, it is possible the Ukrainian people and its suppliers can win by simply waiting for the Russian public to tire of the war.

It's a very costly strategy, and I think probably needlessly bloody, but it is at least possible.
I was saying back in April that NATO could slow walk lethal aid inflicting a long slow destruction of the Russian military.
A slow walk allows NATO to test Russian reactions for aid.

As the KIA/WIA increases, economics sanctions taking a toll, a long list of negatives.
Longer it goes on, how will the military/FSB react to Russian military destruction/restive underbelly that many depend upon remittances sent home.
Wonder where we will be come Jan?
How will Putin sell/spin this war come the New Year?
 
I have a feeling we havent seen the last chapter of this latest neocon episode. Right now the war in Ukraine is masking questions that are bound to start gaining prominence by say next year, if not even later this year. Is Nato still a defensive military organisation, or has it become a tool at the service of ex Warsaw Pact countries to take down a Russia they still fear? Is Nato now a Europe and Asia wide organisation, or just North Atlantic......
Japan doesnt have much of a military (?) that may be changing. India commissions it's first carrier later this year.
India is valuable if we can make the Quad more then just a paper alliance
Aukus pact (US/Aust/UK) along with US bilateral security pact with various littoral states all mean China doesn't get a free ride
in the Indo-Pacific; but when crunch time come I wonder if we'll be so gung ho defending Taiwan as we are with dispatching Russia

NATO expansion ( remember the chess analogy) is by definition a switch from a defensive posture to aggressive

we never had to expand NATO. all members involved with Gorbachev negotiations realized this and assured Gorby
we had no designs on Russian redlines. we blew right past that, and even when it was crunch time with Russia massing on Uk borderand asking us to take it's redlines seriously - well you know we told Russia to **** off.and then act like "why is Russia so aggressive?
 
I was saying back in April that NATO could slow walk lethal aid inflicting a long slow destruction of the Russian military.
A slow walk allows NATO to test Russian reactions for aid.

As the KIA/WIA increases, economics sanctions taking a toll, a long list of negatives.
Longer it goes on, how will the military/FSB react to Russian military destruction/restive underbelly that many depend upon remittances sent home.
Wonder where we will be come Jan?
How will Putin sell/spin this war come the New Year?
The slow walk also keeps Putin from panicking and doing something drastic like tactical nukes.
 
Chernobyl.
Nobody thinks about a third-world gas station while it is pumping gas.

Russia is a former superpower built on decades of propaganda celebrating its own superiority due to its Russian-ness, and so naturally it can't accept its new role as a gas station with a pit toilet in the back--a role that Putin was freaking ecstatic to accept, by the way. Now, could possibly end up reliving the economic agony of the 1990s. And thank God for that.

I wish they'd make it a reality show for the rest of us.

Putin is one of the richest men in the world from pumping gas. He had the golden ticket, until he decided he was a dance mix of Peter the Great and Stalin.

Now he's screwed worse than Russia, and that's saying something.
my point had nothing to do with Chernobyl . Russia is standing up to the very best weapons NATO has. maybe not forever but they have taken a beating and are still ticking
It's missiles are superior to the wests/NATO. China gets that tech. all of a sudden they have an orbiting hypersonic
- where do you think that came from ? Russia
The EU is rationing nat gas, and loking for alternative suppliers - the USA has been exporting as much as we cn but cant match the pipelines from Russia. "Pumping gas" is significant when you are cold and dependent (again) on wood pellets for heat instead

If you think punishing ordinary Russians with sanctions ( and not effecting war revenues), or Russia cutting way back on nat gas is praiseworthy- you probably revel in inflicting pain..do you pull the wings off insects for fun? I wont get into the toilet fetish
 
Japan doesnt have much of a military (?) that may be changing. India commissions it's first carrier later this year.
India is valuable if we can make the Quad more then just a paper alliance
Aukus pact (US/Aust/UK) along with US bilateral security pact with various littoral states all mean China doesn't get a free ride
in the Indo-Pacific; but when crunch time come I wonder if we'll be so gung ho defending Taiwan as we are with dispatching Russia


This is expansion that make sense to me. You add value to the alliance. You add folks who you are actually in synch with. Australia is a natural, however you look at it. Compare that with the expansion into the ex Warsaw Pact areas. An area rife with ancient ethnic tensions. ex Yugoslavia is still an ethnic cauldron over which Nato and Eu managed to just put a plaster over, and even today appears to be ready to boil over.


NATO expansion ( remember the chess analogy) is by definition a switch from a defensive posture to aggressive

Exactly.


we never had to expand NATO. all members involved with Gorbachev negotiations realized this and assured Gorby
we had no designs on Russian redlines. we blew right past that, and even when it was crunch time with Russia massing on Uk borderand asking us to take it's redlines seriously - well you know we told Russia to **** off.and then act like "why is Russia so aggressive?


Bigger is not always better. Nato's own fundamental document cautions against admitting members with issues. Now we have inherited all the ethnic issues that has plagued the Slavonic world for centuries.
 
I was saying back in April that NATO could slow walk lethal aid inflicting a long slow destruction of the Russian military.
A slow walk allows NATO to test Russian reactions for aid.

As the KIA/WIA increases, economics sanctions taking a toll, a long list of negatives.
Longer it goes on, how will the military/FSB react to Russian military destruction/restive underbelly that many depend upon remittances sent home.
Wonder where we will be come Jan?
How will Putin sell/spin this war come the New Year?

Attempting to deplete Russian will by a "long and slow destruction" is highly dependent upon Ukraine itself not being destroyed before that can happen. The most important advantage Russia has is not in its size or resources, but in that the war is being fought entirely in Ukraine itself.

As such it is not Russia's infrastructure, power, housing, civilian population, etc. that is being liquidated. Russian's have zero hesitation in massing artillery to wipe villages off the face of the earth because in reality the entire "liberation" narrative is a cynical fiction. Ukraine has no such option, even if it had the weapons to do it. Indeed, it inability to effectively strike back in some areas of the Donbas, even now, results in large daily losses.

By almost any measure, the economic and human misery being inflicted on Ukrainians is so great that one might think they will lose their will first. None the less, it has one advantage: it's people have no choice but to fight or face cultural and human genocide.

All of which is why I think a passive strategy of defense is bloody and unpredictable in outcome. A better strategy has been, from the outset, to maximize the combat power of Ukraine and to stop obstructing its strategic options to bloody Russians in Russian cities. Until cities like Bryansk, Oryol, Kursk, Voronezh, and Rostov find there train yards, oil depots, powerplants, military bases, industry and government offices in flames there is no reason to suppose that Russians will find the cost of this war unacceptable.

As I have said from the war's outset, the West's leadership doesn't have the guts needed to fight a war to win...which is why there is a good chance that Ukraine will lose.
 
Where is Chuck Norris residing these days?


This guy "New World Econ" does some great analysis. The below gives pause to the impression that things are turning around for Ukraine anywhere. The Russians appear to have cracked Ukrainian 2014 fortifications at Pisky. It is hell there.


 
Now we just need the resentment to resume brewing in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. The quicker Russia snaps under the strain of its own delusions as the Policeman of Asia, the better.
From the Balkans to some States in Central Asia, possible we see more wars.
Balkans/Serbia/Kosovo/ with Armenia/Azerbaijan settling an old war where territory was lost
Parts of that area can explode.
 
This guy "New World Econ" does some great analysis. The below gives pause to the impression that things are turning around for Ukraine anywhere. The Russians appear to have cracked Ukrainian 2014 fortifications at Pisky. It is hell there.



Yes I have been seeing this Russian advance at Pisky. Zelenski issuing a general order for all civilians to evacuate the Donbas completely, is telling.
 
Japan doesnt have much of a military (?) that may be changing. India commissions it's first carrier later this year.
India is valuable if we can make the Quad more then just a paper alliance
Aukus pact (US/Aust/UK) along with US bilateral security pact with various littoral states all mean China doesn't get a free ride
in the Indo-Pacific; but when crunch time come I wonder if we'll be so gung ho defending Taiwan as we are with dispatching Russia

NATO expansion ( remember the chess analogy) is by definition a switch from a defensive posture to aggressive

we never had to expand NATO. all members involved with Gorbachev negotiations realized this and assured Gorby
we had no designs on Russian redlines. we blew right past that, and even when it was crunch time with Russia massing on Uk borderand asking us to take it's redlines seriously - well you know we told Russia to **** off.and then act like "why is Russia so aggressive?
Are you familiar with the phrase "Alt Facts"?
 
This guy "New World Econ" does some great analysis. The below gives pause to the impression that things are turning around for Ukraine anywhere. The Russians appear to have cracked Ukrainian 2014 fortifications at Pisky. It is hell there.




"Stop The AngloZionist Empire ☭"

Lol
 
Yes I have been seeing this Russian advance at Pisky. Zelenski issuing a general order for all civilians to evacuate the Donbas completely, is telling.


I think Zelensky lost his nerves. And it happens constantly. Are you aware of any leader in modern times who orders wholesale evacuation of civilians? You try to provide assistance to those who want to leave; advice those who care not to leave to at least do their best as far as they can to move out of active combat areas; but order evacuation of all civilians in an area the size of whole contries? How is he supposed to take care of them? Or Eu is supposed to? The fact of the matter is if civilians are not in active combat areas, especially farmers and such, they are better off where they are where then can live well on their own farm produce.
 
I'm just wondering what the odds are of Russia surviving as a political entity over the next 24 months.


I dont know about 24 months, appears short to me. But if Russia cannot survive the economic war she can well implode. All kinds of bad things can happen when you lose a war
 
This guy "New World Econ" does some great analysis. The below gives pause to the impression that things are turning around for Ukraine anywhere. The Russians appear to have cracked Ukrainian 2014 fortifications at Pisky. It is hell there.




As I said two or three days ago, Avdiivka and Pisky were areas where fighting would intensify which is why Zelensky had called for evacuation of residents. There was/is a chance that one or both will fall within hours, but as of yet it is unclear. Earlier today a report from Pisky indicated that it was a meat grinder and they they are desperate, without counter battery fire available. At the same time, there was a report than reinforcements were being dispatched - somewhat pointless if they don't have the ability to suppress Russian artillery (and are subject to continual air attacks)

In any event, as mentioned previously, Bakhmut is well defended so it is unlikely that the Russians can take it should Avdiivka and Pisky fall to the Russians.

While I hope Ukraine can come up with more artillery the Donbas is not as important as Kherson. I'd gladly trade the whole of the Donbas for recovery of the southern coastline. I believe that is the attitude of the Ukrainians as well.
 
This is expansion that make sense to me. You add value to the alliance. You add folks who you are actually in synch with. Australia is a natural, however you look at it. Compare that with the expansion into the ex Warsaw Pact areas. An area rife with ancient ethnic tensions. ex Yugoslavia is still an ethnic cauldron over which Nato and Eu managed to just put a plaster over, and even today appears to be ready to boil over.
Bigger is not always better. Nato's own fundamental document cautions against admitting members with issues. Now we have inherited all the ethnic issues that has plagued the Slavonic world for centuries.
NATO is so expanded the only real commonality is being NATO members for some
NATO expansion was justified as a way to spread a common economic interdendence according to some
top heavy defense nations support the smaller nations,and the USA which has absolutely no reason for concern
regarding Ukraine/Russian borders is carrying far too much of the weight for Europe

I wonder if we have enough SAM for China left over. I mean I would have to seriously look at the weapons specific
(and I a not inclined) but whatever the inventory we have any new production has to be for Taiwan reunification.
Pelosi's trip has clarified the issue. are we in or out in defending Taiwan? how about Australia? Japan? etc
we need solid policy
Europe should carry Ukraine and let the USA focus on China, which IS our potential war and not the Russian slog-fest
 
In any event, as mentioned previously, Bakhmut is well defended so it is unlikely that the Russians can take it should Avdiivka and Pisky fall to the Russians.
You honestly think Russia will not take Bakhmut? Really?
 
Agree. The Russian public can fail to understand what was the point of an endless war in Afghanistan. The Russian public correctly could not see any connection to far off Afghanistan; it was costly and a drain; and it was not even clear how Soviet victory in Afghanistan enhanced the Soviet Union in anyway.

Novorussya, as the east and littoral of Ukraine appears to be referred to by Russians, is seen as territories that are historically Russian, has Russian minorities who increasingly want out, and worse have governments that are increasingly anti Russia and anti Russian.

Novorussya, or "new Russia" is an 19th century term of the Tsarist empire that was reanimated by Putin to re-establish former Tsarist and Soviet imperial ownership. Nominally it included the black sea coast and some part of eastern Ukraine, especially the Donbas. It's 'definition' as "Russian" aside from historic conquest by Russian Tsars is that of being one of Russia's (or Muskuvoy's) history of many internal colonializations. Russians migrated into and took over some areas as "theirs" and in the meantime, under the Soviets, millions of resistant heritage peoples of Ukraine were ethnically cleansed and shipped to the far east.

Complicating the definition is the contradictory Russian views of Ukrainians as really Russians and are therefore illegitimate as a separate nation, which is in tension with their common view that Russians are different in language and culture and they should own the east half the country, and the remainder in the west can be taken by Poland (or otherwise left to wither with those western Ukrainians).

This is, as those of us familiar with Russian "logic", a case of having your cake and eating it too (i.e. "you are really Russian except when we say you are not").

Anyway, while Putin has adopted these typical Russian nationalist views he also adds his own expansive ambitions ; all Russians are compatriots, which is defined as anyone who is a Russian speaker, and they are protected "regardless of whether they want it or need it and irrespective of the fact that they live in another sovereign state." (Catherine Wanner, ‘“Fraternal” nations and challenges to sovereignty in Ukraine" American Ethnologist (August 2014), p.432.)

As for what Russian minorities wanted regarding separatism was, and even more so is, irrelevant. Only in Crimea and parts (not the whole) of the Donbas were ethno Russians a majority. More importantly since 2014 the identification with Russia plummeted. The Party of Regions imploded. And upon the invasion, even recognized pro Russian sympathizers refused to cooperate with the invaders (the Mayor of Odesa, the Mayor of Kyrvyi Rih (Zelensky's home town)). The vast majority of Ukrainians in "New Russia", including those who speak as Russians, don't want to be part of Putin's "New Russia".

Putin is simply playing the "ethnic card" and the diaspora as a breaker of nations, usable for the purpose of destroying consolidated states in the formerly in the Soviet imperial boundaries. He could give a fart about what the people in those spaces want or yearn for.
 
You honestly think Russia will not take Bakhmut? Really?

I honestly think it is unlikely this campaign season. And I also don't think it matters much if they do. The real goals are to the west of Bakhmut and Silvirsk.
 
I honestly think it is unlikely this campaign season. And I also don't think it matters much if they do. The real goals are to the west of Bakhmut and Silvirsk.
Since Zelensky ordered all civilians to leave the Donbas, then you must mean west of the Dnieper not simply west of Bakhmut. Right?
 
I think Zelensky lost his nerves. And it happens constantly. Are you aware of any leader in modern times who orders wholesale evacuation of civilians? You try to provide assistance to those who want to leave; advice those who care not to leave to at least do their best as far as they can to move out of active combat areas; but order evacuation of all civilians in an area the size of whole contries? How is he supposed to take care of them? Or Eu is supposed to? The fact of the matter is if civilians are not in active combat areas, especially farmers and such, they are better off where they are where then can live well on their own farm produce.
It is the extent of the war crimes committed by the Russians that has forced Zelensky to make this decision. It is not in favor for the Ukrainian army since it will make it easier for the Russians to take the area, but the assessment is that human lives are more important than the military strategy due to those war crimes and the risks to the people.

So yes, your "feeling" is correct, it is a strategic winning for Russia and it is due to the conscious strategy of brutality against the civil population, so you can say the Russian strategy has worked and even that "Zelensky lost his nerves". Should make you satisfied.
 
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