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Except you are mostly pointing out irrelevant differences between the conflicts. Whether "half way" around the world or not, the only relevant factors are the differences in will power, military power, economic power, and defensible terrain.
Russia's intervention in Ukraine, like the US intervention in Vietnam are subject to similiar constraints. In this case Russia's economy and military is far more damaged by the war than that of the US in Vietnam, so what remains is will power. Being a ruthless autocracy, Russia's will power (at the moment) is still intact.
So the questions become: a) what is Ukraine's will power compared to that of the US? At the moment I have no concern regarding Ukraine's will power. It's back is against the wall and it knows it's a fight to a bitter end and b) the US is a democracy, public opinion is a factor. It's will power seems to be there, but possibly conditional.
Another unknown is how viable is a partisan insurgency war, should Ukraine be more or less occupied? Unlike Vietnam the flat and open terrain sucks for such operations.
As I said, much depends on who loses their will to fight first, and if Ukraine can sustain fighting forever on the level of an insurgency.
As for the Dnieper, the chances of Russia reaching it and securing it as a new border near zero in this campaign season. The rains will come in October, and I doubt the front will move after that.
LOL As always you always come up with these excellent analysis and assessments that I easily can wrap my head around. But those are the fundamentals as you list them