[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[Juin]

But Russia is spliting up its forces. Moving troops from the East to the South to counter any offensive by the Ukraine in the Kherson Oblast.

That is what "UK and Ukrainian Intelligence" are saying. They are the last people to turn to for accurate information on Russia. Mind you, it has nothing to do with them short of information on Russia, just that what they disemminate publicly are all fabrications. When it comes to espionage the English are one of the best, but they are also masters at dirty tricks, which is what they feed the public.

I do not see that the Orc Army has weakend the Donbass forces at all. After about a week or two hiatus after Lysychansk the Orc Army is picking up speed off Bakhmut and Donetsk City.

And the collapse of the Severedonetsk bulge also freed up a lot of Orc Battalions. At its largest the Severodonetsk bulge had a perimeter of some 125 miles. After the collapse of the bulge at Lysychanks the perimeter was reduced like to a third of what it was; making available extra Orc Battalions for other deployments.

I told you this would happen 4 or 6 weeks ago.
If the Kherson Oblast falls to the Ukraine, then Russia is seriously fooked. That could be the Domino, which brings the Russian card house tumbling down.

Correct, if Kherson Oblast falls. Right now I see nothing to indicate its fall. There is not even a serious counteroffensive going on. Battles had been noted around a length of the so called Inhulets River. Ukrainian formations laid two or three pontoons, and were reported to have picked up two or three locations. But reports appear to indicate they had since been mauled by Orc artillery.

I still say the Orc Army is correct in devoting the mass of its Battalions to the Donbass. Only the minimum needed to spoil a Ukrainian offensive ought to be sent to Kharkiv, Izyum or Kherson.

Russia is not doing fine, it is in trouble and the Western weapons arriving on the frontline are blowing the crap out of its military infrastructure and command structure. If you have to use anti ship and anti air rockets to hit ground targets, T62, T82U and early CW APCS, you are not doing fine, you are in trouble.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. As far as I can tell the Russians are taking a hammering, but they are also giving as good as they are getting. The proof of Ukraine's success has to be in yardage gained. If Ukraine cannot show yardage gained how am I supposed to score a gain on the boards?

 

[Juin]

But this is what Napoleon did after Russia, he split is forces over and over again, trying to stand of the 2 prong attacks from the Allies, which in the end defeated him.

I guess if you can force an adversary to split his own forces it is even better than hoping that he does that himself.

Russia is very limited concerning fully trained troops, it has hardly any number 1 left, same with equipment.
Plan a did not work, plan B cost to many number 1 troops, what is plan C?

The Ukrainian Army also faces challenges as well. The only challenges and limitations discussed are those of the Russians. Never that of the Ukrainians. Leaving the rather incorrect impression that Ukrainians are not also facing manpower challenges.

 

[flogger]

Fantasy.

Please expand ?

I dont want Ukraine to lose but those strategic realities I've previously outlined make it seem inevitable given enough Russian patience

 

[Tangmo]

That is until some Union soldier shot the Joseph E Johnston, the Confederate Commander. And Johnston did not die; but Command was handed over to Robert E Lee. With Johnston Quarterbacking there was a good chance the war would have been over in 1862 instead of years later.

But you know the rest of the story. I will leave it at that.

"Lighthorse" Harry Lee. Wish you expanded on that. There has to be a story behind the "Lighthorse" nickname

Quite in respect of Lighthorse Harry Lee but not here so you're on your own which should do the trick.

Interesting about Confederate Gen. Johnston who was another Virginia boy WP grad well known to the Ohio Boys Grant and Sherman. I'm never good at making a long story short but here goes.

After Grant and Sherman restrategized the war in the Cincinnati best and grandest hotel between NY and Chicago, it was agreed: Grant would take out Lee and Sherman would take out Johnston. War Over. Which of course was exactly the way it went. McClellan btw who was fluent in French translated Napoleon to Union generals and it was Grant and Sherman who made the most of it.

While Grant kept cutting Lee's supply lines all the way to Appomattox, Sherman did his march through GA, splitting the Confederacy by torching Atlanta, and driving Johnston to the sea through SC which Sherman absolutely wrecked and into NC where Johnston finally surrendered. (The reporting account of Sherman's victory march in NC is something to read -- I wish I could find it again.) Sherman accepted from Johnston the largest surrender of forces in North America -- Lee's surrender of the remains of his bedraggled army was small time by comparison. Johnston could have fought on.

Jefferson Davis wanted Johnston to continue the fight with his large force, or to disperse it for guerilla warfare but the worn out Johnston ignored him. Later in interviews with a gaggle of press Johnston said of Sherman's March, "Nothing of its kind has ever occurred since Caesar in Gaul. It makes me think of Caesar in Gaul."

Generals killed in the American Civil War were 62 of the Union and 73 of the Confederacy. Perhaps the most bizarre death was Gen. "Stonewall" Jackson who got the nick because he was deaf in one ear and couldn't hear through other, ie, deaf as a stonewall. Jackson also suffered from what's now diagnosed as narcolepsy, falling fast asleep off his horse and during battle maneuvers. At the Seven Days Battle Jackson zonked out en route to his designated position against the Union left flank so his troops just sat down while Jackson cut zzz's. Lee was furious -- livid. Weeks later during a night recon in the rain to the front lines Jackson was shot three times by his own centuries who had to turn about to fire, while none of his staff was hit. When Lee was informed days later of Jackson's death, he said simply, "Give my respects and condolence to Mrs. Jackson."

 

[Juin]

I've often thought the Russian strategy is fairly simple in Ukraine after its initial defeats near Kiev. Putin is basically saying you either bend to my will and do as I say or your 14 million displaced refugees won't have a home or infrastructure to return to even if I cant defeat you militarily on the battlefield . Putin will literally freeze out western resolve to keep supporting Ukraine this winter and with Pelosi's visit to Taiwan it seems probable the Chinese may in response start supplying Russia with the high tech weaponry and drones it urgently needs in order to prevail. Something it has not already done

Either way Ukraine loses and Russia only has to wait it out for a few more months for the events I have outlined ultimately to unfold

I believe you have a point. I daresay yours is more a statement of fact than mere opinion. In the sense that they are obviously the options left to Putin than so much a case of him still having the luxury of a choice of many options.

Refugees can be a weapon of war. It sucks, but it is one the things that sucks about wars. Poland, Germany and a few others have opened their doors to thousands of refugees. If the war prolongs, and the short duration of the "guests" from Ukraine begin to look like permanent "guests. the host populations may start to say: wait a minute...

I also believe Pelosi's visit to Taiwan at this moment was probably not wise. It pissed off the Chinese big time. And eager for something to get even may just trigger the kind of assistance to Russia you just mentioned.

 

[Juin]

Interesting about Confederate Gen. Johnston who was another Virginia boy WP grad well known to the Ohio Boys Grant and Sherman. I'm never good at making a long story short but here goes.

I like long stories. Thanks

Out of some curiosity I thought to look up Kherson Oblast on google map. You know, zoom in, zoom out, rivers, cities, towns... That country is f*ckin huge! Just the distances can make an invader sick to his stomach. Only mad persons undertake such conquests. Germans and Russians coming to mind as candidates for such undertakings that promise only endless pains and sufferings ahead.

 

[Quag]

In this thread I post because there is an onslaught of fake Ukraine news. I fight against a sea of it so people can at least get a glimpse of reality. I want the truth about who is winning and who is losing, so that perhaps people might pause and not be chomping at the bit, to get directly involved in this European conflict.

Why do you post here?

Clearly my question went right over your head
All you do is prove you know squat about history, military affairs, world politics everything you post is utter nonsense. No one is buying your Russian propaganda
What I was asking is why do you continue to spew such utter nonsense knowing that no one will ever take you seriously?

 

[Juin]

Clearly my question went right over your [ @justoneman ] head
All you do is prove you know squat about history, military affairs, world politics everything you post is utter nonsense. No one is buying your Russian propaganda
What I was asking is why do you continue to spew such utter nonsense knowing that no one will ever take you seriously?

Why is it your business why he posts? Are you now the Post Master?

 

[Quag]

Why is it your business why he posts? Are you now the Post Master?

Im not allowed to be curious?
Are you are the protector of Russian trolls?

 

[Schrott]

I guess if you can force an adversary to split his own forces it is even better than hoping that he does that himself.





The Ukrainian Army also faces challenges as well. The only challenges and limitations discussed are those of the Russians. Never that of the Ukrainians. Leaving the rather incorrect impression that Ukrainians are not also facing manpower challenges.

This is what is happening. I told you so weeks ago. The Ukraine is forcing the split, by softening up the South and by threatening a offensive. Russia has to react. I told you so. You denied that this is a 2000km front. Nope, it is a 2000km front.
Russia can not hold the East if the South falls and it has to throw what ever it has to save the Crimea. All it has left are badly trained soldiers, no reserves left.

 

[justoneman]

Clearly my question went right over your head
All you do is prove you know squat about history, military affairs, world politics everything you post is utter nonsense. No one is buying your Russian propaganda
What I was asking is why do you continue to spew such utter nonsense knowing that no one will ever take you seriously?

No I completely knew why you asked me why I post here. I knew it was nothing more than a masked insult. I took the opportunity to express my true feelings anyway. I asked you why you post here. Maybe you could interrupt negativity and give an honest answer to my question.

 

[Juin]

Im not allowed to be curious?

It did not come across to me as curiosity. You accompanied your querry with a string of choice adjectives.

Are you are the protector of Russian trolls?

Just about all my posts are pro Russian.

 

[Schrott]

I've often thought the Russian strategy is fairly simple in Ukraine after its initial defeats near Kiev. Putin is basically saying you either bend to my will and do as I say or your 14 million displaced refugees won't have a home or infrastructure to return to even if I cant defeat you militarily on the battlefield . Putin will literally freeze out western resolve to keep supporting Ukraine this winter and with Pelosi's visit to Taiwan it seems probable the Chinese may in response start supplying Russia with the high tech weaponry and drones it urgently needs in order to prevail. Something it has not already done

Either way Ukraine loses and Russia only has to wait it out for a few more months for the events I have outlined ultimately to unfold

1. it is 5 millions refugees. abroad.
2. The Russian economy is faltering on a big scale, because of the sanctions.
3. Freeze out Europe, that will not happen, homes will be colder, maybe 18C. In the UK you are fooked, because of your government, which allows gas prices to go through roof.
4. there is quiet a few countries in Europe who do not use Russian gas or oil.
5. yes it will need some belt tightening, but nothing more.
6. China's covid respond had been a gigantic economic failure, still is. Their vaccines do not work and national pride does not allow western products, which work.
7. Nancy Pelosie's visit and China's respond just show. Nothing Burger.
8. China will never provide Russia with any high tech weapons, because a weak Russia is to its advantage.

That's why I call it fantasy

 

[maxparrish]

Putzin and his butt buddies are upset because we are making them look like incompetent boobs.

That is true. In sum, this clueless complaining may stem from one or more of the following:

1) Copium. Putin und butt buddies are lying to their public, and perhaps themselves, to avoid giving the credit to "little Russians" having stopped the vaunted "great Russian" army. Much less humiliating is to blame it on Russia's great cold war enemy, the U.S.

2) Collective Self-Centeredness. As a society, Russians are unable to grow and mature - emotionally at the level of 12 to 14 years of age. It's difficult for them to be empathic, kind, and understanding...especially when it comes to others who get more attention and sympathy. Like most immature, it's identity depends on wallowing in victimhood. So when the west supplies weapons to Ukraine, they scream it's unfair and they are "a victim".

3) Entitlement. Like most self-centered societies with victimhood as its only source of "pride", they have assumed they are entitled beyond that of all other nations.

 

[flogger]

1. it is 5 millions refugees. abroad.
2. The Russian economy is faltering on a big scale, because of the sanctions.
3. Freeze out Europe, that will not happen, homes will be colder, maybe 18C. In the UK you are fooked, because of your government, which allows gas prices to go through roof.
4. there is quiet a few countries in Europe who do not use Russian gas or oil.
5. yes it will need some belt tightening, but nothing more.
6. China's covid respond had been a gigantic economic failure, still is. Their vaccines do not work and national pride does not allow western products, which work.
7. Nancy Pelosie's visit and China's respond just show. Nothing Burger.
8. China will never provide Russia with any high tech weapons, because a weak Russia is to its advantage.

That's why I call it fantasy

And I think you are wrong the major European economies that really matter will falter in the cold and darkness of the coming winter . Western intel is also highly suspect on the other factors you mention . Russia is already laying out the post Ukraine target list with both Kazakhstan and Georgia being deemed legitimate 'non countries' ripe for a re constitution into a neo Soviet empire according to Dmitry Medvedev's tweets today.

newsweek.com/medvedev-russia-ukraine-vkontakte-georgia-kazhakstan-1730076

In short watch this space as Ukraine is just the beginning

 

[Jredbaron96]

In this thread I post because there is an onslaught of fake Ukraine news. I fight against a sea of it so people can at least get a glimpse of reality.

No, you offer Russian propaganda.

Someone who is interested in the truth does not spend days insisting that a failed river crossing was not in fact a failure.

 

[Quag]

No I completely knew why you asked me why I post here. I knew it was nothing more than a masked insult. I took the opportunity to express my true feelings anyway. I asked you why you post here. Maybe you could interrupt negativity and give an honest answer to my question.

I sure you dont believe the BS you post as it is so over the top pure BS propaganda. But heck if you dont want to give actual reasons that is fine you are entitled to continue to pretend

 

[Quag]

It did not come across to me as curiosity. You accompanied your querry with a string of choice adjectives.






Just about all my posts are pro Russian.

If you dont want to be considered a Russian troll defender then dont try to defend the Russian trolls

 

[Juin]

No, you offer Russian propaganda.

Why should Russian propaganda be selected for censure? I see tons of Kyiv propaganda on a daily basis.

Someone who is interested in the truth does not spend days insisting that a failed river crossing was not in fact a failure.

I dont believe people who cannot accept that it is just possible Ukrainian shells landed on Azov POWs in Olenivka can claim interest in the truth either.

 

[Juin]

If you dont want to be considered a Russian troll defender then dont try to defend the Russian trolls

Please, consider me what you like. Who do you think you are? No one posts at your pleasure.

 

[Juin]

I sure you dont believe the BS you post as it is so over the top pure BS propaganda. But heck if you dont want to give actual reasons that is fine you are entitled to continue to pretend

Mind your own business? No one posts at your pleasure

 

[Jredbaron96]

Why should Russian propaganda be selected for censure? I see tons of Kyiv propaganda on a daily basis.

Propaganda of all types should be ignored. I don't hold it against anyone if they occasionally fall for misinformation. Deliberate refusal to hear anything to the contrary is a different matter.

If the Russians posted more that just propaganda they would be listened to more.

I dont believe people who cannot accept that it is just possible Ukrainian shells landed on Azov POWs in Olenivka can claim interest in the truth either.

Notice how Juin brings it up here, but curiously fell silent when he was asked if Russia was above killing POWs.

 

[Schrott]

Juin, your examples from the Civil war do not cut it. 99% of the US Generals were just friking military morons. The troops they lead had their officers elected, even their senior officers.
Lee was a 1 trick pony, had no idea of a overall strategic plan. Had only 1 solution to a battle. The Union Generals, should have not made Corporal.
The incompetence of military leadership in the civil war is just epic, including the troops.

The one who finally got it was Grant, but the rest are just pretenders, actors. From the military side, that war is a embarrassment, of incompetence and nothing more, costing 100 of thousand soldiers their lives.
Nothing to be proud of.

 

[JANFU]

Ukraine does own SM.

In what is the seventh authorized drawdown of U.S. weapon stocks since August 2021, Ukraine will receive 75,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery ammunition and an unspecified amount of "additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)," according to a Pentagon press release.
So enamored is the Ukraine Ministry of Defense with its U.S.-supplied rocket artillery that it released a video of HIMARS highlights set to the Metallica song “Enter Sandman.” Riffing on the song’s lyrics, the Ukrainian MoD said in a social media post “Exit light. Enter HIMARS. Exit Russians” who “already sleep with one eye open.”

Ukraine Situation Report: U.S. Sending More Rockets As HIMARS Achieves 'Rock Star' Status

U.S.-supplied rocket artillery systems gain a cult pop-culture following in Ukraine as they are used to pound Russian positions.

www.thedrive.com

 

[JANFU]

Now this:

MSN

www.msn.com

This claim by Russia is, of course, unverified. Sounds like the Russian government is getting desperate to convince the public that "all is well", while in tither behind the headlines.

Clear their missile defense does not work well against HIMARS.
Russia failed in Kiev
Failed in Kharkiv
Took Kherson due to Russian collaborators
A war every expert, including Govt's access to Intel, that we do not see
Fought hard for territory in Donbas that has been mainly leveled

I think NATO is slow walking lethal aid for a number of reasons.
Slow depletion of the Russian military
Incremental increase in numbers of weapons already in theatre with no responses from Russia

Kherson
UAF will at their own choosing mount an offensive.
Russian logistics is undergoing a change as larger resupply pts have been moved out of HIMARS range. Reports of a significant drop in artillery rounds used.

From what I gather rail/road bridges, not sure how many are in need of rebuild or unusable

When UAF starts their offensive it will be loud & effective.
Russians, many could have their back to the Dnipro?
My opinion- In certain areas Russian lines will crumble
That said it will be bloody