Which is fine. But what we have today is a 50-50 race vs. one when it was Biden vs. Trump, Trump was ahead outside of the MOE threatening to lock it up early. Clinton was barely outside the MOE, she did however win the popular vote by 2.1 points. Not that it mattered. But the polls are all about the popular vote nationwide, not the electoral college.
Whatās interesting about 2016 is the third-party vote back on 21 July was at 12%, the same as it was this year on the day Biden withdrew. Only in 2016 there were no replacements, the third party voted ended at 6.0% as a bit over 8 million voters voted against both Trump and Clinton. I was one of them. The third-party vote in 2020 was miniscule, it really didnāt apply ending up at a more normal 1.7% of the vote.
This year, if I were a democrat, Iād be extremely happy with Harris. The democratic share of the vote was at 39% with Biden, today itās up to 48%. Third party vote is down from 12% to 2%, which simply means Harris garnered most of the double hater vote, those who disliked and didnāt want Trump nor Biden as the next president. It also means Biden was more disliked than Trump, but today, Harris is the less disliked candidate. Trump has improved from 44% vs. Biden to 46% vs. Harris rounding off.
Now that is all in the past. If I were a democrat, Iād be most happy with has taken place since 21 July. But at the same time, I would be very cautious, perhaps leery about the future. Itās no time to gloat, itās still a 50-50 race. By the way, there was no convention bounce for Harris, no bounce for Trump once Kennedy withdrew either. His endorsement didnāt mean a thing. Endorsements rarely do.
I think the bottom line is weāre now down to 5-7% of voters who are in flux or havenāt made up their minds yet. That how theyāll vote will be based on their personal view of the candidates. Whether they like or dislike one or the other or which one they dislike the least. Itās getting down to that time. Perhaps the winner will be the candidate these last 5-7% decide which one they want to lose the least. Weāll see.