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Voters trust Harris more than Trump on economy: poll

Winston

Winston

the enemy within
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Mycroft said:
Latest Gallup party affiliation:

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Latest Gallup Independent leaning:

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That Gallup data is from 6 months ago?

Also you can easily account of sampling a larger or smaller percentage of a population than is proportional to its overall portion of the population.

In fact every poll has to do that. Because you will never randomly sample exactly the same percentage each demographic makes up of the overall population.
 
Trump has 6 bankruptcies. We know how well he does with money, and debt? Oh gees! And those who benefited were big businesses, not Americas workers.

Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years​

The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.

One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.

The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.

The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
www.propublica.org

Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years

The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
www.propublica.org www.propublica.org
 
Agreed with others, when you oversample that far away from the overall pulse of the nation we have reason to question the validity of the poll.

Now, if they polled more like the overall political percentages we see and it still showed this result I would not be surprised. But we need to see something more like a 30%, 40%, and 30% split for R, I, and D with some degree of where the respondents lean. To only have 27% qualify as Independent even with lean grossly under considers those voters.
 
Trump is a man who clearly cannot rise above all the daddy issues his father, Fred stuck him with as a child. Fred Trump fu*ked up Donald so badly when he was young that everything--I mean EVERYTHING Trump does is defined by what he thinks his father would approve him doing. Fred taught Trump to f*ck all contractors out of their rightfully earned pay for jobs done for him regardless of whether they earned it fairly or not. makes no difference to Trump, the businessman. When we say Trump is a basket case who's off his rocker and probably Alzheimer-ridden we aren't kidding. This is a man who would think, "Would Dad approve what I'm doing? Probably, because NATO never pays their bills so Dad would say, "Nuke 'em." before he gave orders to start launching the warheads.
 
Flaming Capitalist said:
Trump is a serial narcissist and egomaniac. Only cares about himself.
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Right. Trump running for president has gotten him indictments and shot. Running is actually costing him. But, by all means, vote Kamala. What could possibly go wrong?
 
Nomad4Ever said:
That Gallup data is from 6 months ago?
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Six months? It's from July.

Nomad4Ever said:
Also you can easily account of sampling a larger or smaller percentage of a population than is proportional to its overall portion of the population.

In fact every poll has to do that. Because you will never randomly sample exactly the same percentage each demographic makes up of the overall population.
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I don't demand exactly the same percentage, but polls can...and should...try to get as close as they can.

When they don't...when they are obviously out of whack, as this one is, then deliberate manipulation of sampling...in other words, sampling bias...is the only conclusion.
 
OrphanSlug said:
Agreed with others, when you oversample that far away from the overall pulse of the nation we have reason to question the validity of the poll.

Now, if they polled more like the overall political percentages we see and it still showed this result I would not be surprised. But we need to see something more like a 30%, 40%, and 30% split for R, I, and D with some degree of where the respondents lean. To only have 27% qualify as Independent even with lean grossly under considers those voters.
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A survey of 1,000 voters with a population the size of the US is accurate to about +/- 3%.

Because it is random, you will never get back exactly the same people sampled proportional to demographics. That is true for ALL randomized polling. This isn't an issue unless you fail to capture a statistically significant portion of a demographic. Otherwise, you do some math to normalize your data against known demographic information.
www.pewresearch.org

1. How different weighting methods work

Historically, public opinion surveys have relied on the ability to adjust their datasets using a core set of demographics – sex, age, race and ethnicity,
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
 
Neue_Regel said:
Right. Trump running for president has gotten him indictments and shot. Running is actually costing him. But, by all means, vote Kamala. What could possibly go wrong?
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How much?

How much of his own money (opposed to donations) has he spent?​
 
Nomad4Ever said:
A survey of 1,000 voters with a population the size of the US is accurate to about +/- 3%.

Because it is random, you will never get back exactly the same people sampled proportional to demographics. That is true for ALL randomized polling. This isn't an issue unless you fail to capture a statistically significant portion of a demographic. Otherwise, you do some math to normalize your data against known demographic information.
www.pewresearch.org

1. How different weighting methods work

Historically, public opinion surveys have relied on the ability to adjust their datasets using a core set of demographics – sex, age, race and ethnicity,
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
Click to expand...
Regardless, we have every reason to point out the flaws in the polling by sample.

To say accurate "to about +/- 3%" is not very factual when you take what is largely 40% of the population and reduce it to 27% then turn around and say +/- 3% which does not begin to cover the difference in that manufactured outcome.

Now I will agree that polling tends to do this and some are far more inline with the overall pulse of the nation, politically speaking, than others.

Does not mean immediate forgiveness for numbers so far off the mark.
 
Mycroft said:
Six months? It's from July.
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Thanks, that's my bad. I misread it as Jan instead of Jul.

Mycroft said:
I don't demand exactly the same percentage, but polls can...and should...try to get as close as they can.

When they don't...when they are obviously out of whack, as this one is, then deliberate manipulation of sampling...in other words, sampling bias...is the only conclusion.
Click to expand...
I mean, it's randomized. There are types of polling you can do where you are more deliberate with your sampling, but those are more expensive and are not done very often. These kind of snap polls that 95% of the polls people post on this board are will have similar wild demographic skews of all kinds.

It isn't an issue, as long as you still sampled a statistically significant number of that demographic. If you have a sample where, because you sampled randomly, you ended up with like 70% women and 30% men...but your total sample size was 1,000...no issue. You just weigh the results.

The kind of polls you really shouldn't trust are online opt in polls. If there is any poll that should be treated with gallons of salt it is one that was done by online opt in. And a LOT of polls are because it is so much cheaper.
 
OrphanSlug said:
To say accurate "to about +/- 3%" is not very factual when you take what is largely 40% of the population and reduce it to 27% then turn around and say +/- 3% which does not begin to cover the difference in that manufactured outcome.
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+/- 3% means that there is a 95% chance or better that the results of the poll are accurate within +/- 3%.

It is talking about the results (i.e. Y% of Americans like X).

OrphanSlug said:
Does not mean immediate forgiveness for numbers so far off the mark.
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There is nothing to forgive because there is nothing statistically wrong.

In fact, deliberately over or under sampling is often done in order to get MORE accurate results.

There are a lot of things in a poll that can raise red flags. I'd argue being inherently suspicious of most polls is logical even. But for a 1,000 person size data set...these are well within an acceptable range of deviance from the demographic data. I promise you that this is not a red flag at all.
 
Neue_Regel said:
Right. Trump running for president has gotten him indictments and shot. Running is actually costing him. But, by all means, vote Kamala. What could possibly go wrong?
Click to expand...
Do you remember when Trump tried to stay in power and overturn the will of the people? Or was Jan 6 a friendly protest to you?
By all means, vote for the presidential candidate who tried to subvert democracy so that others can do it in the future. Hey, if Trump can get away with it, why not?



Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump
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States want to correct their votes, which they now know were based on irregularities and fraud, plus corrupt process never received legislative approval. All Mike Pence has to do is send them back to the States, AND WE WIN. Do it Mike, this is a time for extreme courage!
8:17 AM · Jan 6, 2021
 
Nomad4Ever said:
+/- 3% means that there is a 95% chance or better that the results of the poll are accurate within +/- 3%.

It is talking about the results (i.e. Y% of Americans like X).


There is nothing to forgive because there is nothing statistically wrong.

In fact, deliberately over or under sampling is often done in order to get MORE accurate results.

There are a lot of things in a poll that can raise red flags. I'd argue being inherently suspicious of most polls is logical even. But for a 1,000 person size data set...these are well within an acceptable range of deviance from the demographic data. I promise you that this is not a red flag at all.
Click to expand...

I am never going to agree with polling that intentionally discounts independents regardless of lean. Just, not going to happen and others are not near this off the mark.
 
Nomad4Ever said:
Thanks, that's my bad. I misread it as Jan instead of Jul.


I mean, it's randomized. There are types of polling you can do where you are more deliberate with your sampling, but those are more expensive and are not done very often. These kind of snap polls that 95% of the polls people post on this board are will have similar wild demographic skews of all kinds.

It isn't an issue, as long as you still sampled a statistically significant number of that demographic. If you have a sample where, because you sampled randomly, you ended up with like 70% women and 30% men...but your total sample size was 1,000...no issue. You just weigh the results.

The kind of polls you really shouldn't trust are online opt in polls. If there is any poll that should be treated with gallons of salt it is one that was done by online opt in. And a LOT of polls are because it is so much cheaper.
Click to expand...
There is no indication that any weighting was done. But, if it was, that makes their results even MORE biased. Their weighting should have normalized their sampling data.

Their sampling data is all out of whack.
 
Mycroft said:
There is no indication that any weighting was done. But, if it was, that makes their results even MORE biased. Their weighting should have normalized their sampling data.

Their sampling data is all out of whack.
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Respectfully, you just don't understand how polling or statistics works. Which to be clear is fine. It is complex and an entire specialized field in its own right.

But maybe don't speak so confidently about something you don't understand.
 
Nomad4Ever said:
Respectfully, you just don't understand how polling or statistics works. Which to be clear is fine. It is complex and an entire specialized field in its own right.

But maybe don't speak so confidently about something you don't understand.
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I do understand how polling and statistics works.

Bye.
 
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