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Visually Confirmed Daily Tally of Russian Aircraft destroyed, up to 10.

maxparrish

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Recently delivered stingers may be taking a toll...

 

maxparrish

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It would be interesting to see the historical trend in this!

I'll see if I can paste a trend together. The source of this data is Oynx, someone who pours through images counting actual wreckage. Of course, not everything destroyed is on twitter or media sites, but it useful as the number should be conservative. His prior data tended to be one half of official government claims... which I would think would be the bottom of the range.

So here is some related stuff that may be of interest:

 

maxparrish

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It would be interesting to see the historical trend in this!

I've gone through Oryx twitter feeds and related website and its just too mixed to pull out and chart. However, I've seen his tweets in the past and my impression is that both aircraft and vehicle losses have double in the last few days. Prior averages for Russian aircraft losses were about 5 per day, now they are 10 per day.

I suspect Ukrainian losses have also increased and tend to be 1/3rd of Russian losses. Unfortunately, even more forces are on the way for Russia and the convoy has been difficult to hit because of anti-aircraft defenses.

It's a shame the Ukrainians don't have sophisticated jamming, hundreds of more drones, and strike systems like the West. That convoy would be a highway of death if Nato attacked it.
 

Rogue Valley

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How many combat aircraft do the Russians have? 5,000 or so?

Far more than Ukraine. and they can fly from bases in Russia and Belarus.

So fueling and arming are no problems.
 

Chomsky

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I've gone through Oryx twitter feeds and related website and its just too mixed to pull out and chart. However, I've seen his tweets in the past and my impression is that both aircraft and vehicle losses have double in the last few days. Prior averages for Russian aircraft losses were about 5 per day, now they are 10 per day.

Tanks maxparish, for taking the time & effort to provide this data; it's greatly appreciated! 🍻

Yes, that is the trend I was hoping to see; Let's hope your casual observations are accurate. I have no reason to believe they are not.

I suspect Ukrainian losses have also increased and tend to be 1/3rd of Russian losses. Unfortunately, even more forces are on the way for Russia and the convoy has been difficult to hit because of anti-aircraft defenses.

In what is going to become a war of attrition, 3:1 ratio is a positive thing, in my mind, especially given the lopsided power.

It's a shame the Ukrainians don't have sophisticated jamming, hundreds of more drones, and strike systems like the West. That convoy would be a highway of death if Nato attacked it.

I believe the war is going to become one of attrition, and a key point will be the West's supplying the Ukrainians, including through the resistance if the country falls.

But straight-up, I do not believe Ukraine will 'fall', even if Kyiv were to (technically) 'fall'; but then I doubt even Kyiv will fall. Putin is outrunning his supply lines, and seemingly having difficulty re-supplying. His only successes have been in the regions & cities that border Russia & Belorussia.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting resupplied from the West, particularly Poland. The Western borders appear to be porous, and with Putin not even having the resources to get to and successfully mount an attach in the dead middle of the country at Kyiv, he is literally impotent to act in Wester Ukraine - much less at the Polish border.

I believe the West, including the U.S., are likely sending more armaments through Poland than is publicly admitted. The Poles, after Stalin-Khrushchev-et al, have a vehement hatred of Putin; they will not hesitate to go up against him, and are, again, likely doing more than they broadcast.

I do not think Putin will capture the Ukraine, much less hold it or 'keep-the-peace' if he were to succeed in an occupation (which again, I doubt he can do). At best, Putin may successfully hold some Russian/Belorussian border and separatists areas. I do not see him capturing & holding much of the interior, or much of Western Ukraine at all. And outside of those contiguous border areas, what he does capture will be subject to vicious underground guerilla response, with plenty of weaponry flowing in through the Western portion of the country.

The Ukraine may very well become another Afghanistan for Putin (or worse!), only this time having an Afghanistan guerilla underground supported by Europe & the U.S.! In fact, the 'underground' may not even get to the point of going 'underground'! The current fighting may simply continue in it's current form.

Meanwhile, the sanctions will be excruciating over time, especially if the West refuses Putin's gas & oil, which provides the funds that are the lifeblood for his military invasion. Cut-off the infusion of western petroleum cash into Russia, and you cripple Putin's war machine.

--

Anyway, thanks again for the reply. The above is my opinion, it's free, and you get what you pay for!
 

maxparrish

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Tanks maxparish, for taking the time & effort to provide this data; it's greatly appreciated! 🍻

Yes, that is the trend I was hoping to see; Let's hope your casual observations are accurate. I have no reason to believe they are not.



In what is going to become a war of attrition, 3:1 ratio is a positive thing, in my mind, especially given the lopsided power.



I believe the war is going to become one of attrition, and a key point will be the West's supplying the Ukrainians, including through the resistance if the country falls.

But straight-up, I do not believe Ukraine will 'fall', even if Kyiv were to (technically) 'fall'; but then I doubt even Kyiv will fall. Putin is outrunning his supply lines, and seemingly having difficulty re-supplying. His only successes have been in the regions & cities that border Russia & Belorussia.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting resupplied from the West, particularly Poland. The Western borders appear to be porous, and with Putin not even having the resources to get to and successfully mount an attach in the dead middle of the country at Kyiv, he is literally impotent to act in Wester Ukraine - much less at the Polish border.

I believe the West, including the U.S., are likely sending more armaments through Poland than is publicly admitted. The Poles, after Stalin-Khrushchev-et al, have a vehement hatred of Putin; they will not hesitate to go up against him, and are, again, likely doing more than they broadcast.

I do not think Putin will capture the Ukraine, much less hold it or 'keep-the-peace' if he were to succeed in an occupation (which again, I doubt he can do). At best, Putin may successfully hold some Russian/Belorussian border and separatists areas. I do not see him capturing & holding much of the interior, or much of Western Ukraine at all. And outside of those contiguous border areas, what he does capture will be subject to vicious underground guerilla response, with plenty of weaponry flowing in through the Western portion of the country.

The Ukraine may very well become another Afghanistan for Putin (or worse!), only this time having an Afghanistan guerilla underground supported by Europe & the U.S.! In fact, the 'underground' may not even get to the point of going 'underground'! The current fighting may simply continue in it's current form.

Meanwhile, the sanctions will be excruciating over time, especially if the West refuses Putin's gas & oil, which provides the funds that are the lifeblood for his military invasion. Cut-off the infusion of western petroleum cash into Russia, and you cripple Putin's war machine.

--

Anyway, thanks again for the reply. The above is my opinion, it's free, and you get what you pay for!

How this war will evolve remains a mystery to me. It is entirely plausible that it continues indefinitely. It's something I need to digest...
 

Chomsky

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I'll see if I can paste a trend together. The source of this data is Oynx, someone who pours through images counting actual wreckage. Of course, not everything destroyed is on twitter or media sites, but it useful as the number should be conservative. His prior data tended to be one half of official government claims... which I would think would be the bottom of the range.

So here is some related stuff that may be of interest:



Tanks a lot! 🍻 <-- see what I did, there? :p

--


BTW - I just noticed your public info in your avatar area: 'Conservative' in the Bay Area? Hah! That must be fun!

I'm pretty politically Liberal, yet I found La-La-Land above & beyond! It's been awhile since I've been in 'Frisco, but I can only imagine!
 

maxparrish

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Tanks a lot! 🍻 <-- see what I did, there? :p

--


BTW - I just noticed your public info in your avatar area: 'Conservative' in the Bay Area? Hah! That must be fun!

I'm pretty politically Liberal, yet I found La-La-Land above & beyond! It's been awhile since I've been in 'Frisco, but I can only imagine!

Ya, I saw that. I was amused.

For most of my life I've lived as a conservative in liberal areas, so I've learned to navigate. Frankly, I find it much easier to get along here than I do in Portland (my mom's location). The character of "liberalism" is different...one major difference being that Portland is mostly white and is of an entirely different character than here (very diverse area). For example, very few people bother with yard signs declaring their politics (BLM, etc.) here. In Portland every block has at least one and often two houses with yard signs.

Besides, I've always been good at discretion when its most needed.
 

Chomsky

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How this war will evolve remains a mystery to me. It is entirely plausible that it continues indefinitely. It's something I need to digest...

It's possible Putin is largely repelled. I'm not writing the Ukrainians (& NATO support) off, by a long shot.

Putin may hold some of the border & separatist areas, but at this point I see nothing that indicates he will succeed in taking all of Ukraine, or even Kyiv for that matter. I'm not even sure he can go after what he really wants, which is Odessa, because I really can't see how he can afford to open another front adjoining another pro west (but non-NATO) country, that being Muldova.
 

Rogue Valley

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As Zelenskyy said the other day.

Ukraine is not the land, Ukraine is the people. 42 million people cannot be erased.

Even if Kyiv falls, and I believe she will, this is going to be a war of attrition.

The West must understand this and do everything possible to supply the partisan forces.
 

Roadvirus

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Recently delivered stingers may be taking a toll...


The Great Russian Military, Ladies and Gentlemen :LOL:

It's like watching Indiana Jones and Raiders of the Lost Ark and thinking "so this is the 'Great Nazi War Machine' "
 

Chomsky

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Ya, I saw that. I was amused.

For most of my life I've lived as a conservative in liberal areas, so I've learned to navigate. Frankly, I find it much easier to get along here than I do in Portland (my mom's location). The character of "liberalism" is different...one major difference being that Portland is mostly white and is of an entirely different character than here (very diverse area). For example, very few people bother with yard signs declaring their politics (BLM, etc.) here. In Portland every block has at least one and often two houses with yard signs.

You make a good point with your observation that "the character of Liberalism is different (by area)". I think I noticed that in Georgia, during the events of the summer BLM unrest and the post election activities leading into the Senate run-offs.

Quite honestly, the Georgian demonstrations seemed more peaceful and orderly, and I know this sounds crazy, but the protestors & activists seemed more 'clean-cut' than many other cities! Yeah, I know it sounds crazy, but that's what I thought I noticed. They seemed to be dressed more clean-cut, and they seemed more clean-cut themselves. Yeah, crazy I know!

I was impressed enough by what I saw in Georgia, that I'm considering visiting. My hope is the Liberalism breaking-out in Georgia and becoming more prevalent, is a more moderate form of Liberalism, tempered by the more Conservative nature of the Conservative South. We shall see!

As for me, my situation is the converse of yours of sorts. While I'm politically Liberal, I live my personal life fairly Conservatively. So while my metro area is generally thought of as 'Liberal', I found myself living in a predominately Republican locality of the relatively Liberal metro area. And I'm happy with this. Very happy, as a matter of fact!

The character of the Republicanism of my immediate area is, 'northern moderate', for lack of better words. Think of the old 'Rockefeller Republicans' of days gone-by in the Northeast. And while my immediate neighbors are predominately Republican, there is still some Democrat representation, though it's a minority.

I was literally born into the urban Dem Machine; but back then, my immediate neighborhood & friends & family were best described by today's use of the term, 'Blue Dogs'. We were Catholic JFK Dems - proud of it, and our parents & grandparents were of the Eisenhower generation - and proud as hell of him - too!

So yeah, crazy as it sounds, I'm extremely happen living in a moderate Northern Republican area, but not sure I'd be happy living in some of the Republican areas typified in the South. I can't say that for sure concerning some of the South, but it's my suspicion. However, I must say I'm definitely developing a desire to see Georgia!

Besides, I've always been good at discretion when its most needed.

"Discretion is the better part of valor!"

(you said it well, I couldn't agree more)
 
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