I've gone through Oryx twitter feeds and related website and its just too mixed to pull out and chart. However, I've seen his tweets in the past and my impression is that both aircraft and vehicle losses have double in the last few days. Prior averages for Russian aircraft losses were about 5 per day, now they are 10 per day.
I suspect Ukrainian losses have also increased and tend to be 1/3rd of Russian losses. Unfortunately, even more forces are on the way for Russia and the convoy has been difficult to hit because of anti-aircraft defenses.
It's a shame the Ukrainians don't have sophisticated jamming, hundreds of more drones, and strike systems like the West. That convoy would be a highway of death if Nato attacked it.
No, that's way too high.How many combat aircraft do the Russians have? 5,000 or so?
Tanks maxparish, for taking the time & effort to provide this data; it's greatly appreciated!
Yes, that is the trend I was hoping to see; Let's hope your casual observations are accurate. I have no reason to believe they are not.
In what is going to become a war of attrition, 3:1 ratio is a positive thing, in my mind, especially given the lopsided power.
I believe the war is going to become one of attrition, and a key point will be the West's supplying the Ukrainians, including through the resistance if the country falls.
But straight-up, I do not believe Ukraine will 'fall', even if Kyiv were to (technically) 'fall'; but then I doubt even Kyiv will fall. Putin is outrunning his supply lines, and seemingly having difficulty re-supplying. His only successes have been in the regions & cities that border Russia & Belorussia.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting resupplied from the West, particularly Poland. The Western borders appear to be porous, and with Putin not even having the resources to get to and successfully mount an attach in the dead middle of the country at Kyiv, he is literally impotent to act in Wester Ukraine - much less at the Polish border.
I believe the West, including the U.S., are likely sending more armaments through Poland than is publicly admitted. The Poles, after Stalin-Khrushchev-et al, have a vehement hatred of Putin; they will not hesitate to go up against him, and are, again, likely doing more than they broadcast.
I do not think Putin will capture the Ukraine, much less hold it or 'keep-the-peace' if he were to succeed in an occupation (which again, I doubt he can do). At best, Putin may successfully hold some Russian/Belorussian border and separatists areas. I do not see him capturing & holding much of the interior, or much of Western Ukraine at all. And outside of those contiguous border areas, what he does capture will be subject to vicious underground guerilla response, with plenty of weaponry flowing in through the Western portion of the country.
The Ukraine may very well become another Afghanistan for Putin (or worse!), only this time having an Afghanistan guerilla underground supported by Europe & the U.S.! In fact, the 'underground' may not even get to the point of going 'underground'! The current fighting may simply continue in it's current form.
Meanwhile, the sanctions will be excruciating over time, especially if the West refuses Putin's gas & oil, which provides the funds that are the lifeblood for his military invasion. Cut-off the infusion of western petroleum cash into Russia, and you cripple Putin's war machine.
Anyway, thanks again for the reply. The above is my opinion, it's free, and you get what you pay for!
I'll see if I can paste a trend together. The source of this data is Oynx, someone who pours through images counting actual wreckage. Of course, not everything destroyed is on twitter or media sites, but it useful as the number should be conservative. His prior data tended to be one half of official government claims... which I would think would be the bottom of the range.
So here is some related stuff that may be of interest:
Tanks a lot! <-- see what I did, there?
BTW - I just noticed your public info in your avatar area: 'Conservative' in the Bay Area? Hah! That must be fun!
I'm pretty politically Liberal, yet I found La-La-Land above & beyond! It's been awhile since I've been in 'Frisco, but I can only imagine!
How this war will evolve remains a mystery to me. It is entirely plausible that it continues indefinitely. It's something I need to digest...
Ya, I saw that. I was amused.
For most of my life I've lived as a conservative in liberal areas, so I've learned to navigate. Frankly, I find it much easier to get along here than I do in Portland (my mom's location). The character of "liberalism" is different...one major difference being that Portland is mostly white and is of an entirely different character than here (very diverse area). For example, very few people bother with yard signs declaring their politics (BLM, etc.) here. In Portland every block has at least one and often two houses with yard signs.
Besides, I've always been good at discretion when its most needed.