US economy adds 130,000 jobs in August

[Kushinator]

Out of curiosity, are you now souring on U-3 or just when it fits a narrative you need to believe? :roll:

Absolutely not! You'll not be able to find a single post of mine questing the value or validity of the U-3 rate, or any data for that matter. I just find it ironic you choose to point out a milestone you don't see as a valid measure of the job market. The fact of the matter is economic growth is slowing, and you won't be able to observe this ongoing trend through employment data (it is a lagging indicator).

 

[jmotivator]

Absolutely not! You'll not be able to find a single post of mine questing the value or validity of the U-3 rate, or any data for that matter. I just find it ironic you choose to point out a milestone you don't see as a valid measure of the job market. The fact of the matter is economic growth is slowing, and you won't be able to observe this ongoing trend through employment data (it is a lagging indicator).

A statistical milestone is a statistical milestone. I didn't extrapolate any further meaning to the milestone than that it was reached, and that by the accepted standard, that number equates to full employment, which is another statistical milestone.

You read a lot into what I said that I actually didn't say.

So, what is your reaction to the decline to 5.5% unemployment in the black community?

 

[MTAtech]

I have never seen the statistic as a valid measure of the economy as a whole or a clear measure of the job market, and I still don't. I am simply pointing out a milestone in the particular statistic.

In fact, while black unemployment is at historical lows on all the various U versions, the drop in U-3 in August is due to a drop in participation rate, not an increase in employment.

Out of curiosity, are you now souring on U-3 or just when it fits a narrative you need to believe? :roll:

The different measurement indicators all are dependent on what one is measuring. There Is No "True" Unemployment Rate - The New York Times

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

US economy adds 130,000 jobs in August

"The US economy shows signs of cracking, but the US jobs market remains solid.Employers added 130,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%.
The economy has gained jobs for 107 consecutive months, but the pace of hiring has slowed recently. The United States has added an average of 158,000 jobs this year, compared to 223,000 jobs on average in 2018."



2019 seems to be the slowest job growth year in a decade. Wonder if the tariffs are hurting job growth? I guess those 2017 tax cuts, that were supposed to usher in years of prosperity, was a dud.

If you knock off the 25,000 temporary census workers that the US government has hired that 130,000 becomes 105,000.

Using that figure and projecting the 8 months so far for the whole year gives an annual 1,861.5 which is down from last years 2,679. However that doesn't account for the Christmas hiring rush so let's add 10% (that's an EWAG) to come up with 2047.65. When you look at your chart, you can see how much higher that 2,047.65 is than any of the YTD figures when Mr. Obama was the President (even though he wasn't legitimately elected) and that absolutely proves how well Mr. Trump's fantastic business management and international diplomacy skills are boosting the economy and Making America Great Again[SUP]©[/SUP] - <SARC>right</SARC>?

 

[Kushinator]

However that doesn't account for the Christmas hiring rush so let's add 10% (that's an EWAG) to come up with 2047.65.

This is seasonally adjusted data. For reference:

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

... in the tenth year of economic expansion as we are, ...

You are hereby instructed to turn in your MAGA[sup]©[/sup] hat and report for re-education IMMEDIATELY. The US is NOT "in the tenth year of economic expansion" since Donald Trump has NOT been the President of the United States of America for 10 years. When Mr. Trump was NOT the President, the US was in an absolutely appalling economic state and the American economy was shrivelling faster than an ice cube dropped into a deep fryer.

[The above officially approved and endorsed by "Devoted Online Lovers of Trump" Inc. (a non-partisan, independent, research and analysis organization exempt from federal taxation that is dedicated to bringing you the true truth and not the false truth that anyone who doesn't believe 100% of what Donald Trump says tries to tell you the so-called "facts" are), "Pro-Life United Gun Enthusiasts and Manufacturers for Jesus", and “The ‘First Amendment Rights Trust’ Foundation”.]

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

This is seasonally adjusted data. For reference:

Please do not show that graph to a cardiologist.

 

[Visbek]

Are you looking at your own graphics? Layoffs are down over 1000 from 2010, not about the same.

Yes, I'm looking at my own graphs. Perhaps the legend is difficult to read.

Between January 2001 and December 2006, the average monthly layoffs was 1,967
Between January 2010 and June 2019, the average layoff rate was 1,805
The recession peak in April 2009 was 2,650

Quit rate is down more sharply from 2007 and cannot be said to have returned to pre-recession levels.

Sorry, I accidentally posted the Layoffs chart twice. Must've been a glitch in The Matrix.

The big whopper is the last one. Wage gains were flat from 2010-2017. The numbers from the last year are a pattern breaker.

It really isn't.

Let's smooth out the data a bit, by looking at the percentage changes in wages compared to 1 year previous. We can see that the rate of wage growth started to rise. We might say 2013 or 2015, either way it's at least 4 years of gradual wage rate acceleration.



However, part of the reason for that is the inflation rate also started to rise. Wage growth is a little bit better than the past few years, but it's not breaking any patterns.

Again, I'm not saying this was a horrendous report. But it's not fantabulous news, either. It is another mixed signal on the state of the economy.

 

[MTAtech]

If you knock off the 25,000 temporary census workers that the US government has hired that 130,000 becomes 105,000.

Using that figure and projecting the 8 months so far for the whole year gives an annual 1,861.5 which is down from last years 2,679. However that doesn't account for the Christmas hiring rush so let's add 10% (that's an EWAG) to come up with 2047.65. When you look at your chart, you can see how much higher that 2,047.65 is than any of the YTD figures when Mr. Obama was the President (even though he wasn't legitimately elected) and that absolutely proves how well Mr. Trump's fantastic business management and international diplomacy skills are boosting the economy and Making America Great Again[SUP]©[/SUP] - <SARC>right</SARC>?

I know you are being sarcastic but in case someone is taking you seriously, 2,047.65 is lower than any job creation year under Obama, after
2010.

 

[MTAtech]

You desperately WANT the economy to be cracking, but it is not. You desperately WANT the tax cuts to have been a failure, but they were not. When you are at virtual full employment as we are and have been, and are in the tenth year of economic expansion as we are, you can expect job growth to be slow. :roll: The truth is going to be really hard for you to swallow, but here it is: Trump is presiding over one of the greatest periods of peace and prosperity in American history and the economy continues to grow. You left wing haters are just going to have to choke on that.

Newsflash: I've heard of Voodoo economics, but evil-eye economics? People don't have the ability to "will" bad outcomes. What I and others are doing is pointing out that our warnings that Trump policies would result in bad results were correct.

As it has become increasingly clear that the results of his tax cut were disappointing -- recent data revisions have marked down estimates of both GDP and employment growth, to the point where it’s hard to see more than a brief sugar high from $2 trillion in borrowing. But you seem to be parroting Trump, who has invented ever more creative ways to blame other people. In particular, he’s now claiming that the promised boom hasn’t arrived because his opponents are hexing the economy with bad thoughts: “The Democrats are trying to ‘will’ the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election.”

 

[Chomsky]

In the early 90’s I was part of a commercial installation company. This was before the Mexicans flooded the labor market. We were so desperate we were hiring from the welfare department. I met 20 somethings who had never worked before. We even hired ex-cons (BTW, it was the best thing that ever happened to them). No joke: We hired a aged out ex-con ‘shot caller’ as our ‘personnel manager’. (Damned if I was going to wind up in a dumpster with a shiv in my neck!) if the guy had lived an honest life, he would have been the mayor.

The stories I could tell...

It's my belief that one of the worst thing occurring in this country, besides the War on Drugs, is the ostracizing of those that have committed crimes in their past. Yeah, we don't want people committing crimes. But once they've paid their dues, and they appear on the track to societal responsibility, to deny them of the dignity of work and self-sufficiency is stigmatizing them in a way that is not just highly detrimental to them but to society itself.

 

[Chomsky]

Yeah, here's the thing: The unemployment rate doesn't tell you the number of job openings, it is only one piece of the puzzle. We use different measures to figure that out.

The most direct measurement is the Jobs Opening Rate. We can see that the number of job openings is very high, so the jobs are definitely out there.

View attachment 67263221


BLS also tracks layoffs, which have been around the same rate since 2010

View attachment 67263222


The Quits Rate is back to pre-recession levels:

View attachment 67263222


Wage gains have been flat (and on the low side) since 2010:

View attachment 67263223


Of course, these national stats don't tell us where the jobs are, or whether employees have the skills that employers need. (We track that some of that as well, but that takes more time to analyze.)

Last but not least, keep in mind that unemployment is a trailing indicator. When a recession hits, it usually takes a few months for that to be reflected in employment stats, and the negative effects can last for months or years after the official end of the recession.

So, this jobs report is not awful, but it's not great either. It's yet another mixed economic signal. My guess is that the effect of the global slowdown and tariffs have not yet hit the employment market. For what it's worth, I would not expect to see that for another 6-12 months.

Besides being an excellent well documented & supported post, your comments concerning employment being a lagging indicator are right on the money.

But employment also accelerates economic trends, as an employee's gain or loss of economic fortune trickles into the economy as well. We are currently seeing a retraction in consumer confidence, which I find troubling given the consumer seems to be the main component holding this ball-of-wax together.

I very much agree the economy is sending mixed signals, but in the macro sense I find it hard to see any sustained long-term upside without some combination of fed juicing, an end to the tariff war, and global recovery from the current slump.

 

[Airyaman]

I never made a claim about policy. Your knee jerk stupidity is because your world view requires that black people suffer under Trump and it pisses you off when they don't.

What a sad way for you to live.

No, I'm just really curious why you felt the need to point it out. It seems utterly natural that as the overall unemployment rate goes down, so would that of minorities. It's like "duh". So what reason do you have for pointing out the obvious?

 

[Chomsky]

Yes, I'm looking at my own graphs. Perhaps the legend is difficult to read.

Between January 2001 and December 2006, the average monthly layoffs was 1,967
Between January 2010 and June 2019, the average layoff rate was 1,805
The recession peak in April 2009 was 2,650



Sorry, I accidentally posted the Layoffs chart twice. Must've been a glitch in The Matrix.

View attachment 67263230



It really isn't.

Let's smooth out the data a bit, by looking at the percentage changes in wages compared to 1 year previous. We can see that the rate of wage growth started to rise. We might say 2013 or 2015, either way it's at least 4 years of gradual wage rate acceleration.

View attachment 67263235

However, part of the reason for that is the inflation rate also started to rise. Wage growth is a little bit better than the past few years, but it's not breaking any patterns.

Again, I'm not saying this was a horrendous report. But it's not fantabulous news, either. It is another mixed signal on the state of the economy.

Sorry to hit you up twice in the same thread, and I do concur here as well. But I wanted to point-out that looking at raw wage numbers in a vacuum is not as telling of the average worker's prosperity as looking at wage growth relative to inflation/COL.

I don't have a chart handy, but as of last year there was no positive wage growth in relation to the rate of inflation & COL. I believe that may have changed (slightly) this year, but I haven't pulled hard numbers on it.

 

[Kushinator]

No, I'm just really curious why you felt the need to point it out. It seems utterly natural that as the overall unemployment rate goes down, so would that of minorities. It's like "duh". So what reason do you have for pointing out the obvious?

It's just hypocritical cheerleading.

 

[Kushinator]

I don't have a chart handy, but as of last year there was no positive wage growth in relation to the rate of inflation & COL. I believe that may have changed (slightly) this year, but I haven't pulled hard numbers on it.

This is the droid you're looking for (on an annualized basis):

 

[jmotivator]

No, I'm just really curious why you felt the need to point it out. It seems utterly natural that as the overall unemployment rate goes down, so would that of minorities. It's like "duh". So what reason do you have for pointing out the obvious?

So, you couldn't figure out why I might point out a historic milestone unemployment statistic in a thread about unemployment statistics? Are you really that dumb?

 

[Trump]

No, I'm just really curious why you felt the need to point it out. It seems utterly natural that as the overall unemployment rate goes down, so would that of minorities. It's like "duh". So what reason do you have for pointing out the obvious?

you're kidding right?

 

[Fletch]

Newsflash: I've heard of Voodoo economics, but evil-eye economics? People don't have the ability to "will" bad outcomes. What I and others are doing is pointing out that our warnings that Trump policies would result in bad results were correct.

:lamo That is such total garbage. The economy is doing fine, great in fact.

As it has become increasingly clear that the results of his tax cut were disappointing -- recent data revisions have marked down estimates of both GDP and employment growth, to the point where it’s hard to see more than a brief sugar high from $2 trillion in borrowing. But you seem to be parroting Trump, who has invented ever more creative ways to blame other people. In particular, he’s now claiming that the promised boom hasn’t arrived because his opponents are hexing the economy with bad thoughts: “The Democrats are trying to ‘will’ the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election.”

And in the absence of those tax cuts, the economy would be where right now? And the phrase "talking down the economy" dates back to the Clinton years. I guess its only ok when your side says it. :roll:

 

[Kushinator]

:lamo That is such total garbage. The economy is doing fine, great in fact.

I remember when....

 

[Fletch]

I remember when....

I assume you have a point in there somewhere....

The economy is doing great; we are basically at full employment; hourly wages are rising; jobs are still being created and all this is happening in the tenth year of a recovery. Other than whine about Trump, how would you improve the economic situation?

 

[Kushinator]

The economy is doing great; we are basically at full employment; hourly wages are rising; jobs are still being created and all this is happening in the tenth year of a recovery.

You keep the faith! It's about all your posts are good for.

Other than whine about Trump, how would you improve the economic situation?

It doesn't matter what happens. Restrictive trade policy combined with deficit growth during periods of historically low unemployment is already baked into the global and domestic economy. We will soon be forced to run $1.5 trillion+ deficits and experiment with negative interest rates.

 

[GDViking]

The new job number should be noted as including people employed by the federal government for the up-coming census. These hires will not be permanent. The actual, 'everyday' figure is lower by some 25,000.

Meanwhile, we can expect a bit of a boost in GDP as the damage from H. Dorian is addressed.

NUKE EM ALL LET god SORT THEM OUT!!!!

What a short sighted solution...

 

[Airyaman]

So, you couldn't figure out why I might point out a historic milestone unemployment statistic in a thread about unemployment statistics? Are you really that dumb?

Nice backpedaling.

I know why you're doing it, but you don't want to admit that you're just mimicking Trump, who acts like he's doing something special for minorities.

 

[jmotivator]

Nice backpedaling.

I know why you're doing it, but you don't want to admit that you're just mimicking Trump, who acts like he's doing something special for minorities.

What back peddling? I simply stated a statistic that hasn't happened ever. You have been demonstrating a lack of mental acuity ever since.

Why are you so frightened by stating a notable statistic?