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[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

JANFU said:
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Juin said:
There you are! That much vaunted ISW- Instute for the Study of War- may have to eat some crow. Just July 31st, a few days ago, they posted an expert opinion that Russia had little chance of taking Bakhmut. Now the Wagner Ochestra is performing in Patrice Lumumba St in Bakhmut. Good thing someone remembered that ISW expert opinion.




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Good lord, have you'all no shame? We just went through this kind of thinly veiled and mendacious cheerleading with Sivirsk, then Pinsky (which remains in Ukrainian control), now this?

The map produced, by a willing Russian transmission belt, is the usual unreliable information produced from "news" by other Russian cheerleaders. It and your other source(s) don't even pretend to have a methodology, let alone retain a respect for the slightest objective professionalism.

You see, the Russian MOD hasn't claimed any territorial gains for the simple reason is that they rely on folks like DNR officials and sympathetic bloggers push a positive messaging, because no one holds them accountable when they exaggerate claims and push narratives that are, shall we say, dubious?

By the way, "they are in the outskirts" of Bakmut has about the same credibility as they are in the outskirts of Pisky or, in WW2, Moscow. Until its confirmed by independent journalists then I'd suggest you show more circumspection...or be the one risking the embarrassment.
 
ChickenTendies said:

MSN

www.msn.com
So many blatant lies, so many false flags from the Zelensky regime.

While conducting an investigation of Russian attacks in the Kharkiv, Donbas and Mykolaiv regions of Ukraine between April and July, Amnesty International researchers said they discovered that the Ukrainian military was operating out of civilian buildings in at least 19 towns and villages. The discovery was corroborated by satellite images, according to the release.

The organization said that Ukraine committed "a clear violation of international humanitarian law" by basing at least five military facilities in civilian hospitals. Russian airstrikes on health care facilities have resulted in a significant number of civilian injuries and deaths during the war, according to the World Health Organization.

Amnesty International also discovered that Ukraine had installed military bases in 22 out of 29 schools visited in the Donbas and Mykolaiv regions during the investigation, according to the release. The organization said that Russia later launched strikes on many of the same schools between April and late June, resulting in multiple deaths and injuries.

Following the destruction of schools in at least three towns, Ukraine's military is accused of moving bases to schools in different areas, putting the community surrounding the new bases at risk for similar attacks.
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The report from Amnesty is damaging for the Ukraine and warring parties are obliged to protect the civilian population under international law, no matter what.


But I agree with Dmytro Kuleba on that Amnesty is trying to create a "false balance" by publishing the allegations. There is in no way obvious that Ukraine has violated the Geneva Convention. The Geneva Convention says that the belligerent state must as far as possible protect the civilian population by not establishing military outposts among the civilian population. But it is not certain that any other location would have been possible for the Ukrainian forces.

The Ukraine has gone through great length to protect the civil population, sometimes at the expense of military opportunities and advantages. They have used a great amount of money received to protect and secure the civil populations wellbeing. Money that has not been earmarked and could have been used to buy weapons. The medical personal has entered warzones , unarmed and with great risks in order to treat and evacuate civilians.

So I look at the report as a way for Amnesty to make the headlines and thereby get further aid for their cause. If the report had contained just Russian war crimes, no one would have paid attention. The only way to get attention and stand out in the noise was to claim Ukrainian war crimes, and not just any war crimes since we already know there has been some. Especially Russian prisoners of war that have been mistreated and even killed by Ukrainian soldiers. Reporting on those would therefor not have rendered the organization any attention and since it hasn't been supported by the military and the military has been very clear in that it is not accepted behavior; it wouldn't have rendered even a note to report on those. So the organization took the only road they could and looked for military activity within civil areas, which off course is unavoidable if you are fighting intercity battles.

They been known to do just that in the past. It is al about money and I think they should be ashamed. Unfortunately, when the investigations can be made and when they will conclude that there was no choice or alternative location the report from Amnesty will avoid criticism due to being forgotten and Amnesty will have moved on to other specular statements and reports to generate money for the organization.

These people are fighting an existential fight for their freedom of choice .
 
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Juks said:
The report from Amnesty is damaging for the Ukraine and warring parties are obliged to protect the civilian population under international law, no matter what.


But I agree with Dmytro Kuleba on that Amnesty is trying to create a "false balance" by publishing the allegations. There is in no way obvious that Ukraine has violated the Geneva Convention. The Geneva Convention says that the belligerent state must as far as possible protect the civilian population by not establishing military outposts among the civilian population. But it is not certain that any other location would have been possible for the Ukrainian forces.

The Ukraine has gone through great length to protect the civil population, sometimes at the expense of military opportunities and advantages. They have used a great amount of money received to protect and secure the civil populations wellbeing. Money that has not been earmarked and could have been used to buy weapons. The medical personal has entered warzones , unarmed and with great risks in order to treat and evacuate civilians.

So I look at the report as a way for Amnesty to make the headlines and thereby get further aid for their cause. If the report had contained just Russian war crimes, no one would have paid attention. The only way to get attention and stand out in the noise was to claim Ukrainian war crimes, and not just any war crimes since we already know there has been some. Especially Russian prisoners of war that have been mistreated and even killed by Ukrainian soldiers. Reporting on those would therefor not have rendered the organization any attention and since it hasn't been supported by the military and the military has been very clear in that it is not accepted behavior; it wouldn't have rendered even a note to report on those. So the organization took the only road they could and looked for military activity within civil areas, which off course is unavoidable if you are fighting intercity battles.

They been known to do just that in the past. It is al about money and I think they should be ashamed. Unfortunately, when the investigations can be made and when they will conclude that there was no choice or alternative location the report from Amnesty will avoid criticism due to being forgotten and Amnesty will have moved on to other specular statements and reports to generate money for the organization.

These people are fighting an existential fight for their freedom of choice .
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Amnesty would not exist if there wasn't any countries with freedom of choice.
 
Mentally ill Ukrainians must be protected better, especially, during the war
 
Today Erdogan is meeting Putin Sochi.

www.voanews.com

Erdogan and Putin to Meet in Sochi for 2nd Time in a Month

Ukraine grain deal and Turkish Syria ops expected to top agenda
www.voanews.com www.voanews.com

They say that they should talk further about the recently signed grain agreement. But there are also other issues that Erdogan wants to raise, among other things it is about Turkey wanting to do another military operation against the kurds that worked with US in northern Syria and for that they need Russia's approval. The energy issue may also possibly be discussed. Turkey is dependent on Russian natural gas and earlier this year there was supposed to be a stop in the supply. I am writing this because there is a wildcard that may come up. Russia may inquire for Turkish drones (rumours) .
 
‘Realists’ have it wrong: Putin, not Zelensky, is the one who can end the war.

Essay by Michael McFaul, former US Ambassador to Russia and a staunch defender of Ukraine.


Three more grain ships have left Ukraine ports. The Panama-flagged Navistar carrying 33,000 tons of corn is sailing from Odesa, Ukraine to Ireland. The Maltese-flagged Rojen, carrying 13,000 tons of corn, departed from the port of Chornomorsk bound for Britain. The Turkish-flagged ship Polarnet, carrying 12,000 tons of corn, set off from Chornomorsk for the Turkish Black Sea port of Karasu.


Russia has placed pyramidal radar reflectors in the water near the recently damaged Antonivskiy Bridge and the recently damaged nearby rail bridge, both of which cross over the Dnipro River in Kherson. The radar reflectors are likely being used to hide the bridge from synthetic aperture radar imagery and possible missile targeting equipment. This highlights the threat Russia feels from the increased range and precision of Western-supplied systems.
 

Institute for the Study of War

Ukraine is likely seizing the strategic initiative and forcing Russia to reallocate forces and reprioritize efforts in response to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations. Russian forces are increasingly transferring personnel and equipment to Kherson and
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

For August 4.


www.popularmechanics.com

How Anti-Railroad Mines Could Help Ukraine Sabotage Russia’s War Machine

A proposal has emerged to redevelop a weapon that would deliberately target trains and the tracks that service them.
www.popularmechanics.com www.popularmechanics.com
 
Juks said:
The report from Amnesty is damaging for the Ukraine and warring parties are obliged to protect the civilian population under international law, no matter what.


But I agree with Dmytro Kuleba on that Amnesty is trying to create a "false balance" by publishing the allegations. There is in no way obvious that Ukraine has violated the Geneva Convention. The Geneva Convention says that the belligerent state must as far as possible protect the civilian population by not establishing military outposts among the civilian population. But it is not certain that any other location would have been possible for the Ukrainian forces.

The Ukraine has gone through great length to protect the civil population, sometimes at the expense of military opportunities and advantages. They have used a great amount of money received to protect and secure the civil populations wellbeing. Money that has not been earmarked and could have been used to buy weapons. The medical personal has entered warzones , unarmed and with great risks in order to treat and evacuate civilians.

So I look at the report as a way for Amnesty to make the headlines and thereby get further aid for their cause. If the report had contained just Russian war crimes, no one would have paid attention. The only way to get attention and stand out in the noise was to claim Ukrainian war crimes, and not just any war crimes since we already know there has been some. Especially Russian prisoners of war that have been mistreated and even killed by Ukrainian soldiers. Reporting on those would therefor not have rendered the organization any attention and since it hasn't been supported by the military and the military has been very clear in that it is not accepted behavior; it wouldn't have rendered even a note to report on those. So the organization took the only road they could and looked for military activity within civil areas, which off course is unavoidable if you are fighting intercity battles.

They been known to do just that in the past. It is al about money and I think they should be ashamed. Unfortunately, when the investigations can be made and when they will conclude that there was no choice or alternative location the report from Amnesty will avoid criticism due to being forgotten and Amnesty will have moved on to other specular statements and reports to generate money for the organization.

These people are fighting an existential fight for their freedom of choice .
Click to expand...
if you are going to base troops in civilian infrastructure, you are inviting attack. Ukraine doesn't get off because it does so any more then Russia does for shelling such areas.
Or you can say this is a war/slog that has unavoidable "collateral damage" -but you cant give one side a pass and blame the other
 
Jredbaron96 said:
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Institute for the Study of War

The initial Russian campaign to invade and conquer Ukraine is culminating without achieving its objectives—it is being defeated, in other words. The war is settling into a stalemate condition in much of the theater. But the war isn’t over and isn’t likel
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

What Stalemate Means in Ukraine and Why it Matters

Mar 22, 2022 - Press ISW

By Frederick W. Kagan

The initial Russian campaign to invade and conquer Ukraine is culminating without achieving its objectives—it is being defeated, in other words. The war is settling into a stalemate condition in much of the theater. But the war isn’t over and isn’t likely to end soon. Nor is the outcome of the war yet clear. The Russians might still win; the Ukrainians might win; the war might expand to involve other countries; or it might turn into a larger scale version of the stalemate in Ukraine’s east that had persisted from 2014 to the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. The failure of Russia’s initial military campaign nevertheless marks an important inflection that has implications for the development and execution of Western military, economic, and political strategies. The West must continue supplying Ukraine with the weapons it needs to fight, but it must now also expand its aid dramatically to help keep Ukraine alive as a country even in conditions of stalemate.

The technical terms “stalemate,” “campaign,” and “culmination” can confuse the lay reader unfamiliar with military terminology. This note offers an explanation of those terms with reference to historical examples in World War I and World War II, recognizing that historical analogies are always limited.

A campaign is a major military undertaking launched as part of a war effort to achieve one or more objectives that are necessary but not necessarily sufficient to achieving the overall war aims. The Russian invasion of Ukraine that began nearly a month ago was such an undertaking—its aims of seizing Kyiv and Ukraine’s other major cities were part of a larger effort to replace the government of Ukraine, destroy the Ukrainian military, and allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to set political, economic, and security conditions in Ukrainian territory to his liking.

It is useful to compare Putin’s initial campaign with the German invasion of the Soviet Union (USSR) that began in June 1941. The German objectives were to seize Leningrad (today’s St. Petersburg), Moscow, and Ukraine to knock the USSR out of the war quickly. The Germans destroyed huge portions of the Soviet military, besieged Leningrad, reached the outskirts of Moscow, and then the campaign culminated in winter 1941. Like the Russians in Ukraine today, the Germans in 1941 continued to try to get more combat power to the front and launch increasingly hopeless attacks against Moscow well past the point of diminishing returns—which is one sign that a campaign has culminated. The Germans failed to take any of their objectives.
 
anatta said:
if you are going to base troops in civilian infrastructure, you are inviting attack. Ukraine doesn't get off because it does so any more then Russia does for shelling such areas.
Or you can say this is a war/slog that has unavoidable "collateral damage" -but you cant give one side a pass and blame the other
Click to expand...
Not what I am disputing. No Ukraine should not get off, I totally agree with you. What I say is that the report from Amnesty has a somewhat false flag and that there in no way is determent in the reports data that Ukraine is guilty off war crimes in the sense the organization imply. It is also not stated what kind of military bases they are talking about. The witnesses they are referring to are battle units returning and initiating attacks on the enemy, when it comes to bases the description sounds more like temporary gatherings, soldiers seeking shelter for rest during the fight and they call, “two trucks parked outside the building” for a military base. It is also based on hearsay of single individuals claiming that the Ukrainian army used the facilities “just before” the strike. Nothing saying for how long. An hour, 5 minutes or a week…. They are also referring to a building as a military base based on one mans testimony, but the description talks about soldiers taking part in a battle:” Another resident, a 50-year-old man, said: “There is definitely military activity in the neighbourhood. When there is outgoing fire, we hear incoming fire afterwards.””

And then there is this:

“While Amnesty International researchers were examining damage to residential and adjacent public buildings in Kharkiv and in villages in Donbas and east of Mykolaiv, they heard outgoing fire from Ukrainian military positions nearby.”

Honestly, what do you expect? It is war….

And just for you, parallell story about Amnesty and how they sometimes (not always) operates:

Just to give you a view on previous reporting from Amnesty. Sweden was at the center of the Covid debate and we stirred up a great amount off publicity. Naturally Amnesty turned their attention towards us. The authority had defined several problem area beside the elderly care (which was the one overwhelming disaster and failure of the authorities during the pandemic) One of those was that individuals with foreign origin didn’t vaccinate as frequent as other population groups. Especially in the areas where many with foreign backgrounds live. The authorities employed so called ambassadors in those neighborhoods (people who spoke several of the most common languages in those areas) and send out information in several languages to try and change it and get the information out. Vaccination has not been forced on anyone, just recommended and our constitutions prohibit the government from forced measures like that.

Besides that we all know the criticism and propaganda attacks we have received for our generous asylum policies during 2015 and we have been talking about the problems (criminality and social exclusion) in some of those areas for a decade or so and debating how to contract it. And there has been a lot of international publicity due to the shootings and criminal gangs originated from those areas. Problem not being that we “place” refugees there but that they prefer to move there because they find others from the same culture and who speaks their languages, this leading to that they don’t learn Swedish, they don’t enter the Swedish culture and since they don’t get jobs (due to discrimination as well as language problems) to the same extent as Swedish born, these areas have an disproportional amount of individuals living on social welfare.

You may think. What the heck has Amnesty to do with covid. But off course, if Covid is the subject of the news, it is the subject of Amnesty, and if Sweden is the topic then Sweden it is. They couldn’t report on the elderly care, since everyone else already had, it would not render any publicity. So they issued a report criticizing Sweden because people with a foreign background suffered a "disproportionately high degree" of death and severe illness as a result of covid-19. And claimed it was due to discrimination implying it was the authorities that did the discrimination and in principal accused the Swedish authorities for deliberately or through neglect killing refugees with Covid. In doing so they kind of squeezed in al three subjects that has rendered any publicity for Sweden during the last decade. Bound to make the headlines….
 
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anatta said:
but you cant give one side a pass and blame the other
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Yes, you can. Ukraine didn't invade Russia. Russia invaded Ukraine. What part of that don't you understand? And what part of "Ukraine has the right to defend itself", don't you understand?

This is like someone complaining about a victim trespassing on someone else's property while they are frantically running away from the scene of an attempted murder. This is "Heads I Win, Tails You Lose" bullshit. This is like the cops yelling, "Stop Resisting" while they are beating the shit out of a suspect.

And where these civilian buildings? On the front line? Next to all the other civilian buildings Russia bombed to hell? Were any civilians there? When did these incidents take place? At the beginning of the war when Ukraine was trying to figure out how to defend itself from a much more powerful adversary?

Where are the complaints about Bucha? Did you see the photos of the Ukrainians bound and shot in the head? Where are the complaints about Russia deliberately targeting civilian areas? Where are the complaints about Russia breaking the grain shipment agreements with strikes on the Ukrainian ports? Russia is castrating Ukrainian POWs. Did you see the video of the Ukrainian POW getting his balls cut off? You ain't got shit to say about that, do you? Not a single word. Russia is murdering Ukrainian POWS. Where was all your commentary on those Amnesty International articles? Nothing. I didn't see anything from you or the anti-NATO/Pro-Russians except excuses, rationalizations, and outright promotion of bullshit Russian lies and propaganda. I did see a little poem mocking NATO's support of Ukraine and Ukraine's courageous defense of itself. I suppose that's more fun than talking about all the dead Ukrainian civilians.

And this is what you focus on?

"GOTCHA ZELENSKY! GOTCHA ZELENSKY!"

Ukraine's crime in your mind is not already surrendering.

**** THAT!

It's disgusting what the pro Russians in this thread support.
 
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justoneman said:
It's just not true. The UK, France, the low countries, they sure as hell knew WW2 started when Poland was invaded.
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Correct. When Nazi Germany invaded Poland, Britain and France immediately declared war.
 
anatta said:
if you are going to base troops in civilian infrastructure, you are inviting attack. Ukraine doesn't get off because it does so any more then Russia does for shelling such areas.
Or you can say this is a war/slog that has unavoidable "collateral damage" -but you cant give one side a pass and blame the other
Click to expand...




I once had an exchange with a pro Kyivist in which I pointed out to him that Ukrainian artillery was also raining havoc on separatist held Donetsk City; can you believe what he asked me? He said if that was the case where is the evidence?

That's the extent to which pro Kyivists are prepared to go to give Ukraine a pass.
 
Juks said:
Not what I am disputing. No Ukraine should not get off, I totally agree with you. What I say is that the report from Amnesty has a somewhat false flag and that there in no way is determent in the reports data that Ukraine is guilty off war crimes in the sense the organization imply. It is also not stated what kind of military bases they are talking about. The witnesses they are referring to are battle units returning and initiating attacks on the enemy, when it comes to bases the description sounds more like temporary gatherings, soldiers seeking shelter for rest during the fight and they call, “two trucks parked outside the building” for a military base. It is also based on hearsay of single individuals claiming that the Ukrainian army used the facilities “just before” the strike. Nothing saying for how long. An hour, 5 minutes or a week…. They are also referring to a building as a military base based on one mans testimony, but the description talks about soldiers taking part in a battle:” Another resident, a 50-year-old man, said: “There is definitely military activity in the neighbourhood. When there is outgoing fire, we hear incoming fire afterwards.””

And then there is this:

“While Amnesty International researchers were examining damage to residential and adjacent public buildings in Kharkiv and in villages in Donbas and east of Mykolaiv, they heard outgoing fire from Ukrainian military positions nearby.”

Honestly, what do you expect? It is war….

And just for you, parallell story about Amnesty and how they sometimes (not always) operates:

Just to give you a view on previous reporting from Amnesty. Sweden was at the center of the Covid debate and we stirred up a great amount off publicity. Naturally Amnesty turned their attention towards us. The authority had defined several problem area beside the elderly care (which was the one overwhelming disaster and failure of the authorities during the pandemic) One of those was that individuals with foreign origin didn’t vaccinate as frequent as other population groups. Especially in the areas where many with foreign backgrounds live. The authorities employed so called ambassadors in those neighborhoods (people who spoke several of the most common languages in those areas) and send out information in several languages to try and change it and get the information out. Vaccination has not been forced on anyone, just recommended and our constitutions prohibit the government from forced measures like that.

Besides that we all know the criticism and propaganda attacks we have received for our generous asylum policies during 2015 and we have been talking about the problems (criminality and social exclusion) in some of those areas for a decade or so and debating how to contract it. And there has been a lot of international publicity due to the shootings and criminal gangs originated from those areas. Problem not being that we “place” refugees there but that they prefer to move there because they find others from the same culture and who speaks their languages, this leading to that they don’t learn Swedish, they don’t enter the Swedish culture and since they don’t get jobs (due to discrimination as well as language problems) to the same extent as Swedish born, these areas have an disproportional amount of individuals living on social welfare.

You may think. What the heck has Amnesty to do with covid. But off course, if Covid is the subject of the news, it is the subject of Amnesty, and if Sweden is the topic then Sweden it is. They couldn’t report on the elderly care, since everyone else already had, it would not render any publicity. So they issued a report criticizing Sweden because people with a foreign background suffered a "disproportionately high degree" of death and severe illness as a result of covid-19. And claimed it was due to discrimination implying it was the authorities that did the discrimination and in principal accused the Swedish authorities for deliberately or through neglect killing refugees with Covid. In doing so they kind of squeezed in al three subjects that has rendered any publicity for Sweden during the last decade. Bound to make the headlines….
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@anatta and @Juin want the Ukrainians to bunch up all of their soldiers in an open field so the Russians can bomb the shit out of them.
 
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