U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb

[Pyrite]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/us/politics/iran-nuclear-weapons-assessment.html

June 19, 2025

U.S. intelligence agencies continue to believe that Iran has yet to decide whether to make a nuclear bomb even though it has developed a large stockpile of the enriched uranium necessary for it to do so, according to intelligence and other American officials.

That assessment has not changed since the intelligence agencies last addressed the question of Iran’s intentions in March, the officials said, even as Israel has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities.

Senior U.S. intelligence officials said that Iranian leaders were likely to shift toward producing a bomb if the American military attacked the Iranian uranium enrichment site Fordo or if Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader.

The question of whether Iran has decided to complete the work of building a bomb is irrelevant in the eyes of many Iran hawks in the United States and Israel, who say Tehran is close enough to represent an existential danger to Israel. But it has long been a flashpoint in the debate over policy toward Iran and has flared again as President Trump weighs whether to bomb Fordo....

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a religious ruling, or fatwa, in 2003 that has prevented the country from developing nuclear weapons. That is “right now holding,” a senior intelligence official said, adding that the Israeli assessment that Iran was 15 days away was alarmist.,,,


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Hmmm....is Netanyahu playing trump and the American public?

 

[Fletch]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/us/politics/iran-nuclear-weapons-assessment.html

June 19, 2025

U.S. intelligence agencies continue to believe that Iran has yet to decide whether to make a nuclear bomb even though it has developed a large stockpile of the enriched uranium necessary for it to do so, according to intelligence and other American officials.

That assessment has not changed since the intelligence agencies last addressed the question of Iran’s intentions in March, the officials said, even as Israel has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities.

Senior U.S. intelligence officials said that Iranian leaders were likely to shift toward producing a bomb if the American military attacked the Iranian uranium enrichment site Fordo or if Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader.

The question of whether Iran has decided to complete the work of building a bomb is irrelevant in the eyes of many Iran hawks in the United States and Israel, who say Tehran is close enough to represent an existential danger to Israel. But it has long been a flashpoint in the debate over policy toward Iran and has flared again as President Trump weighs whether to bomb Fordo....

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a religious ruling, or fatwa, in 2003 that has prevented the country from developing nuclear weapons. That is “right now holding,” a senior intelligence official said, adding that the Israeli assessment that Iran was 15 days away was alarmist.,,,


```````````````````````````````

Hmmm....is Netanyahu playing trump and the American public?

So if Khameni lifts the fatwa, how long would it take Iran to get the bomb?

 

[iliveonramen]

Everything I've read has said that what your posting. Iran wasn't really pushing for a bomb but something like this, where Israel is allowed to bomb Iran with impunity and there's zero that Iran can do in response...that's a pretty good reason to push them to want a bomb.

As for 2003, around 8 years ago when Obama was trying to get the Iran Nuclear deal passed through Congress, Bibi brought charts and spoke to Republicans saying that Iran was close a nuclear bomb and Israeli and US forces should be bombing Iranian nuclear facilities.

 

[Pyrite]

So if Khameni lifts the fatwa, how long would it take Iran to get the bomb?

I have no idea. If you want to know, do the research in credible sources, then copy and paste excerpts from those credible sources to show what you've found.

Remember: your sources will have to take into consideration this week's damage inflicted by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities and assets.

 

[Pyrite]

Everything I've read has said that what your posting. Iran wasn't really pushing for a bomb but something like this, where Israel is allowed to bomb Iran with impunity and there's zero that Iran can do in response...that's a pretty good reason to push them to want a bomb.

As for 2003, around 8 years ago when Obama was trying to get the Iran Nuclear deal passed through Congress, Bibi brought charts and spoke to Republicans saying that Iran was close a nuclear bomb and Israeli and US forces should be bombing Iranian nuclear facilities.

Yep. Makes you wonder why the Israeli Government chose now to try to push Iran over the edge.

And why trump/miller chose now to tease that the US might actively intervene on Israel's behalf by directly attacking Iran.

 

[iliveonramen]

Yep. Makes you wonder why the Israeli Government chose now to try to push Iran over the edge.

And why trump/miller chose now to tease that the US might actively intervene on Israel's behalf by directly attacking Iran.

I've been listening to Ben Rhodes make the rounds on podcasts. He believes that with Hezbollah and Hamas weakened that Israel believes they can topple the regime in Iran. That there's no way Iran can use proxy's to get at them and they can do what they did in Gaza to Iran, take out military leaders and political leaders through a bombing campaign.

That's scary to me, because we've seen what toppling regimes looks like in the middle east.

 

[Pyrite]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/us/politics/iran-nuclear-weapons-assessment.html

June 19, 2025

U.S. intelligence agencies continue to believe that Iran has yet to decide whether to make a nuclear bomb even though it has developed a large stockpile of the enriched uranium necessary for it to do so, according to intelligence and other American officials.

That assessment has not changed since the intelligence agencies last addressed the question of Iran’s intentions in March, the officials said, even as Israel has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities.

Senior U.S. intelligence officials said that Iranian leaders were likely to shift toward producing a bomb if the American military attacked the Iranian uranium enrichment site Fordo or if Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader.

The question of whether Iran has decided to complete the work of building a bomb is irrelevant in the eyes of many Iran hawks in the United States and Israel, who say Tehran is close enough to represent an existential danger to Israel. But it has long been a flashpoint in the debate over policy toward Iran and has flared again as President Trump weighs whether to bomb Fordo....

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a religious ruling, or fatwa, in 2003 that has prevented the country from developing nuclear weapons. That is “right now holding,” a senior intelligence official said, adding that the Israeli assessment that Iran was 15 days away was alarmist.,,,


```````````````````````````````

Hmmm....is Netanyahu playing trump and the American public?

...White House officials held an intelligence briefing on Thursday and announced that Mr. Trump would make his decision within the next two weeks.

At the White House meeting, John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, told officials that Iran was very close to having a nuclear weapon.

Karoline Leavitt, the White House spokeswoman, said later at a news briefing that Iran had the material it needed to make a bomb.

“Let’s be very clear: Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon,” she said. “All they need is a decision from the supreme leader to do that and it would take a couple weeks to complete the production of that weapon.”

Some American officials said those new assessments echoed material provided by Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, which believes that Iran can achieve a nuclear weapon in 15 days.

While some American officials find the Israeli estimate credible, others emphasized that the U.S. intelligence assessment remained unchanged, and American spy agencies believe that it could take several months, and up to a year, for Iran to make a weapon....

Some officials believe Israeli assessments have been colored by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s desire to gain American support for his military campaign against Iran.

Mr. Netanyahu said on Thursday, however, that Israel could achieve its goals alone when it came to Iran’s nuclear facilities....

 

[anatta]

I've been listening to Ben Rhodes make the rounds on podcasts. He believes that with Hezbollah and Hamas weakened that Israel believes they can topple the regime in Iran. That there's no way Iran can use proxy's to get at them and they can do what they did in Gaza to Iran, take out military leaders and political leaders through a bombing campaign.

That's scary to me, because we've seen what toppling regimes looks like in the middle east.

all true. and the people fleeing Tehran - miles of cars- and probably what is left of the apparatchik doubtful have any confidence in mullah rule anymore . It's just depends on how it breaks up.
Killing the Supreme leader could backfire, as the people want to make their own government.

Whatever happens to the mullahs 1. destroying their ability to enrich and 2. increasing their ballistic missile ranges. put thems out of power
Trump can afford a little time. Israel wiped out their nuclear facilities.. Trump can finish it off within 2 weeks while considering his options.

 

[Pyrite]

all true. and the people fleeing Tehran - miles of cars- and probably what is left of the apparatchik doubtful have any confidence in mullah rule anymore . It's just depends on how it breaks up.
Killing the Supreme leader could backfire, as the people want to make their own government.

Whatever happens to the mullahs 1. destroying their ability to enrich and 2. increasing their ballistic missile ranges. put thems out of power
Trump can afford a little time. Israel wiped out their nuclear facilities.. Trump can finish it off within 2 weeks while considering his options.

Post #8


Israel did not "wipe out" all of Iran's nuclear facilities. Fordow has not been destroyed.

 

[dmpi]

I wouldn't rule out a negotiated settlement but clearly the events of the last two weeks puts Iran on the defensive. That said I don't think we can ever trust current Iranian leaders so at this point we might as well fight it out.

 

[anatta]

Post #8


Israel did not "wipe out" all of Iran's nuclear facilities. Fordow has not been destroyed.

of course. the 2 week contemplation is being sold as decision time- MOAB / but i think Trump i trying to get more then that..*guessing*

 

[Pyrite]

I wouldn't rule out a negotiated settlement but clearly the events of the last two weeks puts Iran on the defensive. That said I don't think we can ever trust current Iranian leaders so at this point we might as well fight it out.

Post #10


We might as well attack Iran? Why should the USA attack Iran?

What would make Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons more dangerous than the nukes already possessed by China? By Russia? By North Korea?

 

[Hamish Howl]

The only hard part about building a bomb is the uranium refining.

After that, you can make a crude bomb with an engine block and some TNT.

I'm okay with all of this.

I am also okay with using B2s to hammer their underground facilities. I mean, it's on now, so there's no point half-assing it.

 

[Hamish Howl]

of course. the 2 week contemplation is being sold as decision time- MOAB / but i think Trump i trying to get more then that..*guessing*

MOABs are not ground penetrators

 

[Hamish Howl]

I wouldn't rule out a negotiated settlement but clearly the events of the last two weeks puts Iran on the defensive. That said I don't think we can ever trust current Iranian leaders so at this point we might as well fight it out.

You know anyone who is going to cry if the mullahs get turned into pink baloney mist?

Yeah, me neither.

 

[anatta]

MOABs are not ground penetrators

it's not important except to weapons dealers and the DoD. Massive Ordnance Projectile, or MOP is the penetrator, MOAB is above ground..i think..either way it took out the ISIS caves and the MOP can penetrate. I guess the MOAP shock wave crumbles the underground, especially use as a double tap. just do it

 

[Hamish Howl]

it's not important except to weapons dealers and the DoD. Massive Ordnance Projectile, or MOP is the penetrator, MOAB is above ground..i think..either way it took out the ISIS caves and the MOP can penetrate. I guess the MOAP shock wave crumbles the underground, especially use as a double tap. just do it

Works on fractured granite caves, not on reinforced concrete.

The way you do it is, you have 4 B2s drop ground penetrators on the same spot. 4 is probably overkill. You know you nailed it when dust plumes come out of the ventilation shafts you couldn't see prior.

Also, you drop MOABS out of C141s, not bombers. As beaten up as the Iranians are, that's still too risky.

 

[dmpi]

If all we have to do is fly our mighty B-2 bomber over the site and drop our bunker buster bomb what is the big deal? We're already involved with the war. We're not attacking civilians. Fake outrage and anti-Trump rhetoric is coming of of the left regardless of what Trump does. Decisive action will shorten the war, not extend it.

 

[Callen]

I wouldn't rule out a negotiated settlement but clearly the events of the last two weeks puts Iran on the defensive. That said I don't think we can ever trust current Iranian leaders so at this point we might as well fight it out.

A negotiated settlement wouldn't be worth the paper it was written on at this point. Iran is not going to give up enrichment. Even if they did make some sort of agreement why do you think Bibi would honor a deal between the US and Iran if they beleive Iran is on the cusp of making a bomb?

 

[Callen]

If all we have to do is fly our mighty B-2 bomber over the site and drop our bunker buster bomb what is the big deal? We're already involved with the war. We're not attacking civilians. Fake outrage and anti-Trump rhetoric is coming of of the left regardless of what Trump does. Decisive action will shorten the war, not extend it.

You don't think that the Iranians would retaliate against Americans? Then what?

 

[Simon W. Moon]

So if Khameni lifts the fatwa, how long would it take Iran to get the bomb?

If the last three decades are any indicator, Iran will have a nuke any second now.

We just need to hold our breath and wait.

 

[holbritter]

Not sure I trust this intelligence. Are they the same people who said there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

 

[dmpi]

You don't think that the Iranians would retaliate against Americans? Then what?

Iran through terrorist actions and aiding our enemies have always retaliated against America. This is nothing new.

 

[Callen]

Iran through terrorist actions and aiding our enemies have always retaliated against America. This is nothing new.

My point is that a strike against their site will likely precipitate military retaliation against American interests in the area, like military bases. The US will have no choice but to reciprocate and so it goes. No problem, just needs to be understood that it is highly unlikely to be a one and done.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Iran through terrorist actions and aiding our enemies have always retaliated against America. This is nothing new.

that was the GWB Admin promoting unvetted, stove-piped intel and the like


the USIC was more cautious in their own statements