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U.S. Economy Jobs Report: U.S. adds 255k jobs; Stock Market hits all-time High

JumpinJack

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The labor market is roaring. The economy added 255,000 jobs in July, beating estimates of 185,000. May's jobs numbers were revised to plus 24,000 from plus 11,000 jobs. June's number was updated to plus 292,000 positions from plus 287,000 positions. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent, beating estimates of 0.1 percent. TheStreet's Scott Gamm and Moody's Analytics' chief capital markets economist John Lonski discuss what the report means for the Federal Reserve's looming rate hike.
https://www.thestreet.com/video/13666356/economy-adds-255-000-jobs-in-july-paving-way-for-near-term-fed-hike.html

Stocks jumped Friday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 passing all-time closing highs, after the government reported a better-than-expected 255,000 jobs were created in July.
Nasdaq tops year-old record, S&P 500 hits high, too


Not a bad comeback from the Great Recession that nearly drove the country, and the world, into the Second Great Depression. This is VERY helpful to retirement accounts, college savings accounts, and other accounts. This is good news. (Of course, what goes up, comes down. So best not to get too complacent.)
 

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https://www.thestreet.com/video/13666356/economy-adds-255-000-jobs-in-july-paving-way-for-near-term-fed-hike.html


Nasdaq tops year-old record, S&P 500 hits high, too


Not a bad comeback from the Great Recession that nearly drove the country, and the world, into the Second Great Depression. This is VERY helpful to retirement accounts, college savings accounts, and other accounts. This is good news. (Of course, what goes up, comes down. So best not to get too complacent.)

We should be spending less and rates should be higher. That way we would be in better shape, when the next wave hits.
 

Dittohead not!

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https://www.thestreet.com/video/13666356/economy-adds-255-000-jobs-in-july-paving-way-for-near-term-fed-hike.html


Nasdaq tops year-old record, S&P 500 hits high, too


Not a bad comeback from the Great Recession that nearly drove the country, and the world, into the Second Great Depression. This is VERY helpful to retirement accounts, college savings accounts, and other accounts. This is good news. (Of course, what goes up, comes down. So best not to get too complacent.)


Must be because Obama's term is about to end......




yes, you guess it. Sarcasm. Pure, unadulterated sarcasm. Delicious, spicy sarcasm. I love it.
 

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The jobs report looks good on the surface, not so good underneath it.

A) The jobs were mostly lousy. Look at the unemployment rates by educational attainment. The rate for people with no high school went WAY down. Yet the rate for those with high school or greater either all stayed the same or went up.

Table A-4. Employment status of the civilian population 25 years and over by educational attainment


B) the U-3 rate stayed the same but the U-6 (a much more - IMO - accurate measure of unemployment) went up slightly.

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

C) according to the household survey, July was a great month - 420,000 more employed. But that is just this last month and will be adjusted later (up or probably down).
But overall since March, only 197,000 more people are employed - less then 50,000 per month. And between March and June, 223,000 LESS people were employed.
That is a less-then-healthy trend and goes along with the lousy GDP numbers for that period.

And, once again, of those 420,000 more employed, the jobs went mostly to seniors (255K) and the very young (97K for 16-19's). Surely not the best paying jobs out there.

Table A-9. Selected employment indicators


Always look past the headlines.
 

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Looks like the Brexit deal wasn't the end of the world, after all.
 

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All of those economists focus mainly on the effects for Britain, the EU and finally the US......and none even hint that it spells doomsday for the US.

Phail.

Morgan says US stock markets COULD see 7% declines....but the article doesn't spell out over what time period....and the article say further:


Instead, it's more likely that U.S. stocks are just biding their time waiting for clarity on issues such as the ongoing corporate earnings recession, uneven economic data, ongoing pressure on Japanese and European banks from negative policy rates, and whether or not the Fed is serious about its two-quarter-point rate hike forecast for 2016.


Phail....again. No "doomsday" predictions.
 

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All of those economists focus mainly on the effects for Britain, the EU and finally the US......and none even hint that it spells doomsday for the US.

Phail.

Morgan says US stock markets COULD see 7% declines....but the article doesn't spell out over what time period....and the article say further:


Instead, it's more likely that U.S. stocks are just biding their time waiting for clarity on issues such as the ongoing corporate earnings recession, uneven economic data, ongoing pressure on Japanese and European banks from negative policy rates, and whether or not the Fed is serious about its two-quarter-point rate hike forecast for 2016.


Phail....again. No "doomsday" predictions.

The Libbos's predicted disaster. No disaster. I know you're all disappointed.
 

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Must be because Obama's term is about to end......




yes, you guess it. Sarcasm. Pure, unadulterated sarcasm. Delicious, spicy sarcasm. I love it.

The jobs report reflects past policies and economy. Not the future.

In fact, if taxes mattered, and if the current state of the economy were dependent on the future, it would be declining, since the Democrats are likely to win the Presidency and pick up Congressional seats. And the Republicans tell us that they will raise taxes.
 

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We should be spending less and rates should be higher. That way we would be in better shape, when the next wave hits.

If there's one thing not to worry about, it's whether rates will rise. They will. They always do. And then they go down. And then they go up.

Rising rates will help those who are using savings accounts, and will help a lot of financial institutions. But it'll hurt the housing market and many other sectors. This is why the fed has held back so long. But it won't be long, now, I read.

It will also signal a tickup in inflation, which ironically will eat into the savings of the middle class.

But the fed will probably raise the rate just a fraction of a percent, keeping the effect to a minimum...is what I read.

However, remember how mortgages were packaged as investments and sold before the 2007-8 crash? (See movie "The Big Short") That's still being done, I believe.

Some mortgages that are adjustable rate mortgages will go up. So foreclosures will increase slightly, probably, when some people are caught not being able to pay their mortgages. Which will affect those mtge-backed securities mentioned above. But probably shouldn't be a big deal, since I believe they've been checking the loans now and getting credit scores and such.

I wonder if the cost of housing will go down a bit? Could be a good time to buy a house, for the person who is paying cash or doesn't care about the interest rate.
 
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Gimmesometruth

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The Libbos's predicted disaster. No disaster. I know you're all disappointed.
I see you're changing your argument now ,first it was Economist now it's liberals and yet you still can't post any liberals that made that prediction .fail again
 

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https://www.thestreet.com/video/13666356/economy-adds-255-000-jobs-in-july-paving-way-for-near-term-fed-hike.html


Nasdaq tops year-old record, S&P 500 hits high, too


Not a bad comeback from the Great Recession that nearly drove the country, and the world, into the Second Great Depression. This is VERY helpful to retirement accounts, college savings accounts, and other accounts. This is good news. (Of course, what goes up, comes down. So best not to get too complacent.)


It's the summer of recovery......until its not.

Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, signals fewer future hikes | Reuters

The stock market is being propped up with FED zirp policy and investors would rather speculate than risk their principle in a American economy. European Govt's are flirting with negative interest rate policy as a last ditch effort to get savers to spend, ( invest )

It wont work. There's no monetary solution that would counter the policies and legislation that have been put in place over the last 8 that have chased off private sector investment.

We haven't had 8 straight years of unprecedented FED monetary stimulus and zero interest rate policies because our economy is growing and strong. On the contrary.
 

joG

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If there's one thing not to worry about, it's whether rates will rise. They will. They always do. And then they go down. And then they go up.

Rising rates will help those who are using savings accounts, and will help a lot of financial institutions. But it'll hurt the housing market and many other sectors. This is why the fed has held back so long. But it won't be long, now, I read.

It will also signal a tickup in inflation, which ironically will eat into the savings of the middle class.

But the fed will probably raise the rate just a fraction of a percent, keeping the effect to a minimum...is what I read.

However, remember how mortgages were packaged as investments and sold before the 2007-8 crash? (See movie "The Big Short") That's still being done, I believe.

Some mortgages that are adjustable rate mortgages will go up. So foreclosures will increase slightly, probably, when some people are caught not being able to pay their mortgages. Which will affect those mtge-backed securities mentioned above. But probably shouldn't be a big deal, since I believe they've been checking the loans now and getting credit scores and such.

I wonder if the cost of housing will go down a bit? Could be a good time to buy a house, for the person who is paying cash or doesn't care about the interest rate.

Oh, yes. The rates will rise. But they cannot be reduced much from present levels nor fiscal spending to be lifted much, if we run into a global downturn. We would be severely restricted in the tools available to buffering the external shock.
 

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Oh, yes. The rates will rise. But they cannot be reduced much from present levels nor fiscal spending to be lifted much, if we run into a global downturn. We would be severely restricted in the tools available to buffering the external shock.

Japan is already in negative rates and the EU is strongly hinting at them (and already has negative deposit rates - yes, you have to pay banks to leave your money with many of them in Europe).

This latest, post-Brexit, stock market boom is (imo) an aberration. And since the Fed admits that they base interest rates on equities more then any other single thing - then if the market does fall again and go back to the stagnation that it has shown for the last few years, then rate hikes are off the table for a long time and negative interest rates are probably inevitable.

In fact, I predict that we will see negative interest rates (or a massive round of QE - or both) before we see 1% again.
 

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Japan is already in negative rates and the EU is strongly hinting at them (and already has negative deposit rates - yes, you have to pay banks to leave your money with many of them in Europe).

This latest, post-Brexit, stock market boom is (imo) an aberration. And since the Fed admits that they base interest rates on equities more then any other single thing - then if the market does fall again and go back to the stagnation that it has shown for the last few years, then rate hikes are off the table for a long time and negative interest rates are probably inevitable.

In fact, I predict that we will see negative interest rates (or a massive round of QE - or both) before we see 1% again.

All is fine till there is a crisis. Then it is better to have room to maneuver, which we have very little of at this point.
 

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All is fine till there is a crisis. Then it is better to have room to maneuver, which we have very little of at this point.

Oh, I agree.

But that is the corner the major central banks have painted themselves into.

That is why, imo, there have been no recessions since the Great Recession...central banks cannot handle them traditionally so they are doing EVERYTHING in their power to avoid them. If there is the slightest hint of a recession - they drop rates or throw QE at it or even (in Japan's case) directly buy stocks.

If the ignorant masses think that things are great because there have been no recessions for a while..they are mistaken. There have been no recessions for a while because central banks are doing EVERYTHING they can to stop them...desperately so.
Whereas in the past, they would just react to serious recessions/high inflation/deflation. Now they are ultra touchy to ANYTHING that looks bad (GDP, equities, inflation/deflation). And government are all for it as it takes the responsibility for lousy economic performances largely off of their shoulders.
Unfortunately, both the governments and the central banks do not know - for the most part - what they are doing.

It's a VERY worrying trend, imo.
 
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joG

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Oh, I agree.

But that is the corner the major central banks have painted themselves into.

That is why, imo, there have been no recessions since the Great Recession...central banks cannot handle them traditionally so they are doing EVERYTHING in their power to avoid them. If there is the slightest hint of a recession - they drop rates or throw QE at it or even (in Japan's case) directly buy stocks.

If the ignorant masses think that things are great because there have been no recessions for a while..they are mistaken. There have been no recessions for a while because central banks are doing EVERYTHING they can to stop them...desperately so.
Whereas in the past, they would just react to serious recessions/high inflation/deflation. Now they are ultra touchy to ANYTHING that looks bad (GDP, equities, inflation/deflation).

It's a VERY worrying trend, imo.

Quite right. Sorrily it is not the central bank alone in that corner. The government has ratcheted up its debt to a point that in itself is not dangerous, but reduces the country's credibility, if push comes to shove. The rating is evidence of this, but not the only one. On top of these, the merchandise trade numbers are less than comforting, should we find ourselves in a tight spot.
As I said, living is fine right now, but we have been somewhat negligent in positioning ourselves for the next wave.
 

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. And since the Fed admits that they base interest rates on equities more then any other single thing - then if the market does fall again and go back to the stagnation that it has shown for the last few years, then rate hikes are off the table for a long time and negative interest rates are probably inevitable.

er uh DA, can you please back up "the Fed admits that they base interest rates on equities more then any other single thing"? I'm pretty sure their mission is to keep inflation and unemployment low so it would be a big deal if they admitted that.
 

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er uh DA, can you please back up "the Fed admits that they base interest rates on equities more then any other single thing"? I'm pretty sure their mission is to keep inflation and unemployment low so it would be a big deal if they admitted that.

hey DA, how's that " you backing up your claim " coming along? you do know this a debate forum right?
 

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Tomorrow is the next jobs report.

My guess is the numbers will be very good.

Not because the economy is humming along...it ain't.

But because the government runs the BLS and tells it what to do and the government wants Hillary to win and for Hillary to win easily, the economy must be seen to be doing alright.

And if tomorrow are not good numbers, then the rest will be - whether they are or not in real life - until the election.
And if for some reason the numbers are too bad for even the BLS to 'massage' enough to make them look good, then the Fed (all of the governors having been appointed by Obama and/or are hardcore doves) will pump whatever amount of money into the economy that needs to be to artificially prop it up for a Hillary election victory.

Anyone who believes the BLS/Fed does not do what they are told (especially the BLS) by the powers-that-be is staggeringly naive.
 
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