U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace even as Trump’s tariffs hit

[Jredbaron96]

Well you guys have been repeating this for the past 4 months. Any idea when we can expect it to happen?

You can already see it in prices.

 

[dobieg]

Yeah, there was. I think as we get into Q4, we'll start to see the aggregate effects of Trump's destabilizing global trade and how it's going to impact the US economy, markets, and consumer prices.

I'm sure you're liquidating your investment accounts as you typed this if not before.

You know,....getting ready for the crash and all.

 

[Jredbaron96]

This means it’s still Biden’s economy. If we’d seen a contraction the leftoids would call it Trump’s.

In all seriousness, I like positive economic news regardless of who’s president.

This is pretty clearly the result on the impact of tariffs, which led to a drastic reduction in imports.

 

[Chomsky]

I am still trying to sell my house..i had to drop the price 2 x. housing -if nothing else needs a rate cut

While I can empathize with your plight, mortgage rates in the 6's is not that high historically, and with the strong GDP and the two recent months of increasing inflation, and inflation running away from the Fed Target, I can't imagine Powell cutting.

Last I saw the national average house time-to-sale was 58 days, which is historically pretty solid - being on the shorter side.

So, 'no', I see no immediate rate slippage.

BTW - Ironically, a quick rate increase often brings buyers on the sideline into sales, in an attempt to lock-in before rates go up further. I was told this by a R.E. Agent friend.

 

[dobieg]

You can already see it in prices.

View attachment 67582322

lol

Prices are at the same point they were back in Oct and less then a tenth away for imports.

Basically a rounding error at this point.

 

[Ikari]

I'm sure you're liquidating your investment accounts as you typed this if not before.

You know,....getting ready for the crash and all.

We're in the boat at this point, doesn't matter which end sinks first, we're all here for the ride.

 

[Ikari]

lol

Prices are at the same point they were back in Oct and less then a tenth away for imports.

Basically a rounding error at this point.

Weren't y'all complaining about those prices in October. Prices are high, Trump's gonna bring them down, blah blah blah. I remember a lot of complaining about Biden, the economy, and pricing back then. Funny how it's not really an issue now.

lol

 

[Chomsky]

Well you guys have been repeating this for the past 4 months. Any idea when we can expect it to happen?

Those expecting tariffs to "hit" are reflecting Trump's rhetoric. Until recently, no one knew Trump's proclivity to TACO.

Obviously 145% tariff on Chinese goods would have caused turmoil.

 

[dobieg]

We're in the boat at this point, doesn't matter which end sinks first, we're all here for the ride.

I see.


So even though you're quite certain of a large drop later this year you're going to ride it out, take the hit and just suck it up.


Hmm. I don't sense conviction in your predictions.

 

[Jredbaron96]

lol

Prices are at the same point they were back in
Oct

Trump took office in January and implemented his tariffs in March, why are you comparing them to Biden?

and less then a tenth away for imports.
Basically a rounding error at this point.
.

This is a price index, not a price change. Its not 1/10th, its three percent.

 

[TangoNoCash]

Well you guys have been repeating this for the past 4 months. Any idea when we can expect it to happen?

Ask Taco. We all await the whims of one man.

 

[Ikari]

I see.


So even though you're quite certain of a large drop later this year you're going to ride it out, take the hit and just suck it up.


Hmm. I don't sense conviction in your predictions.

I don't control grocery prices, but I'm still gonna have to buy them.

 

[dobieg]

Weren't y'all complaining about those prices in October. Prices are high, Trump's gonna bring them down, blah blah blah. I remember a lot of complaining about Biden, the economy, and pricing back then. Funny how it's not really an issue now.

lol

According to the chart posted above there's been almost no movement in Domestic since last October. What exactly are we suppose to be getting worked up about? Eggs?

 

[Chomsky]

Yeah, there was. I think as we get into Q4, we'll start to see the aggregate effects of Trump's destabilizing global trade and how it's going to impact the US economy, markets, and consumer prices.

Agreed.

But, he TACO's continuously. Even if he says "Tariffs go into effect Friday", do they really? These aren't Congressional Acts. They're just Trump's rhetoric, and he talks a lot of crap.

 

[Callen]

I know that Trumpers are eager to spin this but if one puts politics aside and listen to the economists , this is not a good report other than the headline number. If it was a good report the markets would be reacting positively but it's basically flat.

The Q2 numbers were skewed by a significant drop in imports caused by the significant increase in them Q1. most economists are saying the real numbers are a blend of Q! and Q2. However, looking past the top number economists are concerned becasue bot consumer spending and Core GDP are weak. Good news is if this trend continues Powell will lower rates next go around.


"Consumer spending, which powers about 70% of the US economy, picked up sharply in the second quarter to a 1.4% rate, up from the anemic 0.5% in the first quarter. But, combined with the previous data, it marks the two slowest quarters of spending since the pandemic. Meanwhile, businesses slowed their spending sharply during the same period, to 1.9% from 10.3%, mostly reflecting a recalibration from the front-running earlier in the year.

Still, the economy isn’t out of the woods and things could take a turn for the worse: A key gauge of underlying demand in the economy — real final sales to private domestic purchasers, also referred to as “core GDP” — slowed in the second quarter to an annualized rate of 1.2%, the weakest pace since the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 1.9% earlier in the year.


“Headline numbers are hiding the economy’s true performance, which is slowing as tariffs take a bite out of activity,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said in commentary issued Wednesday. “If core GDP performance continues at this pace, we expect there will be even more pressure on the Fed to lower rates as the economy slows.”

 

[dobieg]

I don't control grocery prices, but I'm still gonna have to buy them.

I don't recall you bitching much when we were at near double digit inflation under Biden.

 

[Ikari]

According to the chart posted above there's been almost no movement in Domestic since last October. What exactly are we suppose to be getting worked up about? Eggs?

I mean, y'all were worked up before. What was the point? Other than a partisan political narrative you never actually believed in but used it as a corner stone to attack Biden and now that Biden is gone, you don't care?

 

[Chomsky]

Both 1 and 2nd quarter GDPs are artificially modified by the drastic swings in imports.

View attachment 67582321

Yep. I suggested as much upthread.

 

[dobieg]

I know that Trumpers are eager to spin this but if one puts politics aside and listen to the economists , this is not a good report other than the headline number. If it was a good report the markets would be reacting positively but it's basically flat.


......................

No.

Markets are waiting for the FOMC announcement and Powell comments later this afternoon.

 

[Ikari]

I don't recall you bitching much when we were at near double digit inflation under Biden.

Oh no, it really sucked then too. There was a global inflation event that hit due to the various fallouts of the global COVID pandemic. That shit sucked hard. Biden took steps to bring inflation back down, and it was decreasing. But it seems that's just a talking point y'all used because as we go through Q3 and Q4, we're likely to see the effects of Trumps War on Trade swing in, and it may not be that pretty.

 

[Chomsky]

You can already see it in prices.

View attachment 67582322

And let's not forget that's with extreme TACO'ing.

 

[dobieg]

I mean, y'all were worked up before. What was the point? Other than a partisan political narrative you never actually believed in but used it as a corner stone to attack Biden and now that Biden is gone, you don't care?

And have you looked in a mirror recently?

 

[Gardener]

More reasons for our American hating liberal friends to sob into their blankets. The US economy is chugging along and contrary to our Democrat friends who were almost universally predicting a recession US growth remains resilient.

Too bad for the board liberal I strongly advised to close their short SPXU and SQQQ positions and others who were betting against our country.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/gdp-q2-2025-.html

You used liberal in one instance and Democrat in another .

They stopped being nearly synonymous years ago as today's authoritarian left is now the antithesis of liberal.

 

[Plasmaball]

Imagine had trump not touched anything.
No immigrant push out. No tariffs. Dude would be sailing

 

[dobieg]

Oh no, it really sucked then too. There was a global inflation event that hit due to the various fallouts of the global COVID pandemic. That shit sucked hard. Biden took steps to bring inflation back down, and it was decreasing. But it seems that's just a talking point y'all used because as we go through Q3 and Q4, we're likely to see the effects of Trumps War on Trade swing in, and it may not be that pretty.

Liberal revisionist history.

Prices rose drastically here in the US because Biden decided to flood consumers with another round of stimulus checks even though we were basically back to full employment and while we were in the midst of severe supply chain constraints and ports backed up miles.


Too many dollars chasing too few goods.