U.S. economy grew 2.1 percent in 2022, but recession fears linger

[poweRob]

That's not what he said. Powerob lied, again, stating that Biden did something he didn't do. That's an objective fact. Maybe Biden does make a profit on it, maybe he doesn't, I just know that as of right now he hasn't done anything but drain about half the capacity.



Precisely how do you know that? Is it your extensive experience in the energy futures markets?

I read. And I provided the link to show it just a few posts back. Sourcing. Something you know nothing of.

 

[Threegoofs]

The SPR inventory has declinined consistently since Biden took office. It is now at nearly half the capacity it was when he assumed office. There is no profit here for the taxpayer, only a pretty depleted SPR that isn't meant to be used for political purposes like this.

LOL. It’s tons of profit.

Thru sold high and will refill as prices drop.

That’s $20/bbl profit- and at around 200MM barrels, that’s like $4 billion net.

Funny how you whined about Biden not lowering gas prices, and then when he did, you’re whining about that too.

 

[bave]

That saved more than just Chrysler and GM. It saved the entire US automobile industry. It's why Ford didn't take a dime but insisted on the getting the bailout because without it, the supply chain for car parts for all of them would have died and killed them all.

We don't know that, this was the lobbyist position sure. Industries have gone through wide reaching bankruptcies and restructuring before. What Obama did was intervene in a disabled industry and rather than let it organize and restructure he bailed it out at the expense of the taxpayer for tens of billions of dollars for political purposes.

Do you ever know what you are talking about? I've yet to see it. Just the arrogance as if you did.

Moreover, the entire bankrutpcy laws related to Chrysler and GM were subordinated by federal fiat. That was cute too.

And there's the ignorance buried in the arrogance.

You literally, objectively, and demonstrably lied and are throwing a fit that you got caught? Got it. Standard play for you.

 

[poweRob]

We don't know that, this was the lobbyist position sure. Industries have gone through wide reaching bankruptcies and restructuring before. What Obama did was intervene in a disabled industry and rather than let it organize and restructure he bailed it out at the expense of the taxpayer for tens of billions of dollars for political purposes.



Moreover, the entire bankrutpcy laws related to Chrysler and GM were subordinated by federal fiat. That was cute too.



You literally, objectively, and demonstrably lied and are throwing a fit that you got caught? Got it. Standard play for you.

Making shit up as you go. Worst dunning kruger candidate ever. Good thing you never source your bullshit. No one wants to read conservative treehouse anyways.

 

[bave]

I read. And I provided the link to show it just a few posts back. Sourcing. Something you know nothing of.

Sport. The SPR has literally declined every month since Biden has taken office, drastically so. He hasn't made any profit, he has been selling crude on a monthly basis. You can't determine if there was a net profit or loss until you have refilled with similar products. Stop lying, the facts are incredibly transparent here.

LOL. It’s tons of profit.

Thru sold high and will refill as prices drop.

That’s $20/bbl profit- and at around 200MM barrels, that’s like $4 billion net.

Funny how you whined about Biden not lowering gas prices, and then when he did, you’re whining about that too.

Ok, show me the math on the *actual* profit from the SPR meddling. Not what you think might happen in the future, but the current realized profit.

Here's the real rub here. Right now global spare crude capacity is at ~2-3% of demand. ARAMCO just came out this morning warning about this very subject. What the hell are we going to do if China and India start consuming more oil while Russia's production is declining and there is no spare capacity? Then you are going to see a face ripping price spike and an empty SPR.

This is speculation, plain and simple speculation for political purposes.

 

[bave]

Biden used the national strategic oil reserves to drive down prices and made a profit by buying it back at a lower price than when it was sold. And now republicans are trying to tie his hands so that he can no longer use the strategic oil reserves like that again.

Again, to remind you of the bald faced lie.

Making shit up as you go. Worst dunning kruger candidate ever. Good thing you never source your bullshit. No one wants to read conservative treehouse anyways.

Since you are struggling to keep your lies straight, I brought it back down for you.

Biden did not make a profit. Nor did he buy anything back. In fact the SPR has been running a net-monthly negative balance every month since he assumed office.

Just a lie you got caught in.... again.

You just don't learn do you.

 

[craig]

The golden years have been the Clinton, Obama, and soon to be Biden years. Which ones did I skip?

 

[poweRob]

Sport.

Tsk tsk...

The SPR has literally declined every month since Biden has taken office, drastically so. He hasn't made any profit, he has been selling crude on a monthly basis.

Because unlike conservatives, he's smart enough to have a strategic price point at which he'll buy it back.

You can't determine if there was a net profit or loss until you have refilled with similar products. Stop lying, the facts are incredibly transparent here.

I'll let you know when you accidentally trip across a fact.

Ok, show me the math on the *actual* profit from the SPR meddling. Not what you think might happen in the future, but the current realized profit.

Go read the link I provided.

Here's the real rub here. Right now global spare crude capacity is at ~2-3% of demand. ARAMCO just came out this morning warning about this very subject. What the hell are we going to do if China and India start consuming more oil while Russia's production is declining and there is no spare capacity? Then you are going to see a face ripping price spike and an empty SPR.

And as a net seller of oil, the U.S. would be sitting quite pretty regardless of whatever the reserves are at.

This is speculation, plain and simple speculation for political purposes.

Yes, we know. You should stop doing it.

 

[Threegoofs]

Sport. The SPR has literally declined every month since Biden has taken office, drastically so. He hasn't made any profit, he has been selling crude on a monthly basis. You can't determine if there was a net profit or loss until you have refilled with similar products. Stop lying, the facts are incredibly transparent here.



Ok, show me the math on the *actual* profit from the SPR meddling. Not what you think might happen in the future, but the current realized profit.

Here's the real rub here. Right now global spare crude capacity is at ~2-3% of demand. ARAMCO just came out this morning warning about this very subject. What the hell are we going to do if China and India start consuming more oil while Russia's production is declining and there is no spare capacity? Then you are going to see a face ripping price spike and an empty SPR.

This is speculation, plain and simple speculation for political purposes.

You can look up the realized profit yourself.

It’s obvious that it’s substantial, since they literally sold at a peak.

As for your future speculation, yes, it can happen, but the most likely scenario is oil drops in price, snd we refill the SPR, helping prop up prices for our domestic producers.

 

[multivita-man]

Markets are confusing because we're coming out of a cycle without precedent. If you're a tech or information worker, this is starting to feel like a recession to you. I think whether we actually enter a real recession will depend on what happens to these higher income earners and whether they can survive dislocation.

I don't think inflation is done with us either. Monetary policy has caught up to inflation, but there's a risk of some real commodity-based cost-push inflation with China's return to the global economy. Moreover, inflation has been baked into salaries. New workers are demanding higher wages. These costs will get passed on to the consumer if it's service-based work. The danger isn't just that there could be competition for commodities of wage spiral, but that monetary policy believes the recession is over at the same time these things are unfolding and starts cutting rates again.

This is the same trap the Fed fell into in the mid-1970s and it capped off a lost decade.

 

[MTAtech]

It is generally accepted that the primary stimulus program that Obama launched was rather ineffective and the most costly of the programs related to the financial crisis. The cash for clunkers, shovel ready jobs, UAW bailout wasn't particularly helpful towards the economic rebound. It still passed btw, and Obama didn't need a Republican vote to pass anything as I am sure you recall.

That’s completely false. It’s generally accepted by economists that it DID work.
Did the stimulus work? A review of the nine best studies on the subject

 

[Exactice]

You can look up the realized profit yourself.

It’s obvious that it’s substantial, since they literally sold at a peak.

As for your future speculation, yes, it can happen, but the most likely scenario is oil drops in price, snd we refill the SPR, helping prop up prices for our domestic producers.

Weird Ignorant question as I have been following this "conversation"

in simple terms, (Generically stating) We bought oil when it was like $30/barrel. Filled up the reserves using $USD.

World went to...@#$$. Prices went crazy. We sold them at $100/barrel (Generically) So yes we got a realized profit of $70/ barrel. its true.


2 issues.

1) This is the Strategic reserves not a bank so the realized gains we made with the sale what did we do with it? $ 4billion someone mentioned, did exactly what for the American People? I was paying $5.30 for gas in the summer of 2022, still paying $5.10. The $.20 while a reduction didnt change much. I know in 2019 I was pay $3.85 that was much less than $5.10 just saying.
2) $4 billion to $30 Trillion debt is a joke....... So currently Are we holding the NET realized gains to buy the oil back at a cheaper price? As likely we wont see $30 a barrel for a VERY long time, If ever. So you are sayin that buying it back at $70 a barrel, cause it was less than we sold it a good thing? Currently its $79.38 a barrel..... When are we going to refill our "Strategic Reserves" as I dont "think" we have, I could be wrong though


2 questions

1) Can you cite where we bought back in?
2) Can you confirm what we did with the realized gains from the sale? Is it held to buy back, or put into our usless $30trillion debt and the only why to replenish our reserves is to print more money to buy oil back, causing more inflation?

 

[CLAX1911]

"The U.S. economy grew by 2.1 percent in 2022, notching six months of solid growth despite widespread concern that the country might be on the brink of a recession.
Those fears have been assuaged — at least for now. The economy posted another consecutive quarter of steady expansion between October and December, with economic activity increasing at a 2.9 percent annual rate, a strong showing given slumps in large parts of the economy, including housing and manufacturing.

Still, the figure was a cool-down from 3.2 percent growth in the previous quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday."

Link

More bad news for Biden, I guess.

Recession fears? We are in recession.

 

[Greenbeard]

Recession fears? We are in recession.

What definition of recession can accommodate a growing economy at full employment?

 

[MTAtech]

That saved more than just Chrysler and GM. It saved the entire US automobile industry. It's why Ford didn't take a dime but insisted on the getting the bailout because without it, the supply chain for car parts for all of them would have died and killed them all.

Do you ever know what you are talking about? I've yet to see it. Just the arrogance as if you did.

And there's the ignorance buried in the arrogance.

Moreover, it saved the taxpayers tens of billions in unemployment benefits to workers that didn’t have to be paid.

GM: The Most Successful Bailout Bankruptcy - The Big Picture

I have a quote in this Bloomberg article, but the more important stuff is further down in the article. Excerpt: “General Motors Co.’s initial public offering showed that while U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration may lose billions on the auto-industry bailout, the national budget and...

ritholtz.com

 

[CLAX1911]

What definition of recession can accommodate a growing economy at full employment?

It's not growing it's recovering.

 

[MTAtech]

It's not growing it's recovering.

There are more employed today than at any other time in history.

Let’s go Dark Brandon!

 

[NuffSaid]

Market as of right now is still indicating a >90% chance of a recession in 2023. Mr.YieldCurve also says, enjoy the recession.

Wow, so gleeful about a recession.
Any other doom and gloom scenarios you hoping upon Marrica?

 

[Threegoofs]

Weird Ignorant question as I have been following this "conversation"

in simple terms, (Generically stating) We bought oil when it was like $30/barrel. Filled up the reserves using $USD.

World went to...@#$$. Prices went crazy. We sold them at $100/barrel (Generically) So yes we got a realized profit of $70/ barrel. its true.


2 issues.

1) This is the Strategic reserves not a bank so the realized gains we made with the sale what did we do with it? $ 4billion someone mentioned, did exactly what for the American People? I was paying $5.30 for gas in the summer of 2022, still paying $5.10. The $.20 while a reduction didnt change much. I know in 2019 I was pay $3.85 that was much less than $5.10 just saying.
2) $4 billion to $30 Trillion debt is a joke....... So currently Are we holding the NET realized gains to buy the oil back at a cheaper price? As likely we wont see $30 a barrel for a VERY long time, If ever. So you are sayin that buying it back at $70 a barrel, cause it was less than we sold it a good thing? Currently its $79.38 a barrel..... When are we going to refill our "Strategic Reserves" as I dont "think" we have, I could be wrong though


2 questions

1) Can you cite where we bought back in?
2) Can you confirm what we did with the realized gains from the sale? Is it held to buy back, or put into our usless $30trillion debt and the only why to replenish our reserves is to print more money to buy oil back, causing more inflation?

Feel free to do the research. You seem to care.

All I can tell you is that we will net a gain from the sale and refilling of the NSR. And the dollars are real, and will go to cover the budget, since they’ll be returned to the general fund.

 

[CLAX1911]

There are more employed today than at any other time in history.

Let’s go Dark Brandon!

You think the president does that?

 

[MTAtech]

You think the president does that?

According to you, Democratic Presidents are legitimately blamed for a bad economy, but get no credit for a good one, while Republican presidents get to take credit for a good economy and no blame for a bad one.

 

[CLAX1911]

According to you, Democratic Presidents are legitimately blamed for a bad economy,

No but presidents fascist dictator state governments that locked down and made draconian laws against all sorts of things.

but get no credit for a good one,

Of course not. The scumbag in the office wanted everybody that didn't want to be a guinea pig for his shit vaccine mandates unemployed. The supreme court rightfully bitch slapped his dumb ass. So in spite of his desire to further damage the economy he wasn't permitted.

while Republican presidents get to take credit for a good economy and no blame for a bad one.

Well I've never heard a Republican campaign on destroying an industry like Biden did.

I'm not sure Republicans are great Bush gave 700 billion to criminals. But mostly Biden was prevented from effecting it. That's checks and balances.

 

[bave]

Because unlike conservatives, he's smart enough to have a strategic price point at which he'll buy it back.

Ok, so you admit he hasn't bought anything and thus there is no realized profit? Ok, thanks. Like I said, you got caught in a bald faced lie.

I'll let you know when you accidentally trip across a fact.

Trip, I'm gonna just keep dragging you over one of the most transparent lies this forum has seen in a while.

Go read the link I provided.

And as a net seller of oil, the U.S. would be sitting quite pretty regardless of whatever the reserves are at.

I have read it all, you just admitted that we haven't bought any oil. You can't claim a net profit if you can't show a neutral ending position of the underlying inventory, period.

That’s completely false. It’s generally accepted by economists that it DID work.
Did the stimulus work? A review of the nine best studies on the subject

Heh. You can cite a bucket of *administration* economists and left wing think tanks, but they are in the minority on this one. I am not saying it was a disaster, I am saying it was unnecessary. There is a difference there. We have had policies that range from 1-10 in terms of quality, this one was a 4 or 5, it was relatively neutral in terms of net results. It wasn't TARP that was a 9. It wasn't Biden's last COVID stimulus that was a 2. It was pretty much right in the middle. There are positives, there are negatives, as a whole the concensus has it on the slight net-negative.

Moreover, it saved the taxpayers tens of billions in unemployment benefits to workers that didn’t have to be paid.

GM: The Most Successful Bailout Bankruptcy - The Big Picture

I have a quote in this Bloomberg article, but the more important stuff is further down in the article. Excerpt: “General Motors Co.’s initial public offering showed that while U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration may lose billions on the auto-industry bailout, the national budget and...

ritholtz.com

Yes, it did do that. Like I said, not all bad. The problem is it cost a lot to accomplish these things.

There are more employed today than at any other time in history.

Let’s go Dark Brandon!

Sure, but shouldn't that pretty much always be the trend line? If the population of a nation is growing you better have a consistently increasing number of employed persons. I think the more relevant metric is participation.

Feel free to do the research. You seem to care.

The research is clear, there has been zero oil repurchases for the SPR and thus no profit has been realized.

All I can tell you is that we will net a gain from the sale and refilling of the NSR. And the dollars are real, and will go to cover the budget, since they’ll be returned to the general fund.

Then you are lying. You can't tell me that because you can't tell me at what price and when it will be refilled in the future.

 

[SuperDS77]

Funny how you whined about Biden not lowering gas prices, and then when he did, you’re whining about that too.

Funny how some will give Biden credit when prices go down, but not when they go up!

 

[RedFishBlueFish]

Markets are confusing because we're coming out of a cycle without precedent. If you're a tech or information worker, this is starting to feel like a recession to you. I think whether we actually enter a real recession will depend on what happens to these higher income earners and whether they can survive dislocation.

I don't think inflation is done with us either. Monetary policy has caught up to inflation, but there's a risk of some real commodity-based cost-push inflation with China's return to the global economy. Moreover, inflation has been baked into salaries. New workers are demanding higher wages. These costs will get passed on to the consumer if it's service-based work. The danger isn't just that there could be competition for commodities of wage spiral, but that monetary policy believes the recession is over at the same time these things are unfolding and starts cutting rates again.

This is the same trap the Fed fell into in the mid-1970s and it capped off a lost decade.

Good post. Over the year we will see if Powell sticks to his talking points and waits to see if inflation sticks around or pushes back up before initiating rate cuts. I believe Powell and the FOMC are in the "higher for longer" camp, but what do I know?