Tsikhanouskaya's grim warning: Russia might attack the Baltic States from Belarus

[Hamish Howl]

I'm curious why no one has plucked the cosmodrome feather in the Russian cap over near Mongolia. Admittedly, I know little to nothing about the logistics, but it seems a high value morale target. What I am missing here in my expertise vacuum?

Because it is actually in Kazakstan, which is a non-belligerent.

 

[reinaert]

Because it is actually in Kazakstan, which is a non-belligerent.

The other one. Vostochny.

 

[Hamish Howl]

So you are saying Poland didn’t learn anything from their last attempt getting trashed?

You’d need to keep the place under permanent martial law to keep it from simply slaughtering your garrison and rejoining Russia the first chance it gets.

This assumes anyone would be permitted to stay.

Poland doesn't need the port. It needs Russia to be gone from the region.

 

[Hamish Howl]

The other one. Vostochny.

I just skimmed that, and I don't really see much point to attacking it.

It is a huge drain on utilities and anything you'd get from a satellite is more accessible when spied on with a drone.

No, I have a gut feeling here that the Ukrainians want to **** up the Russian strategic naval assets in the East, same as they ****ed up Russia's strategic air assets.

 

[reinaert]

I just skimmed that, and I don't really see much point to attacking it.

It is a huge drain on utilities and anything you'd get from a satellite is more accessible when spied on with a drone.

No, I have a gut feeling here that the Ukrainians want to **** up the Russian strategic naval assets in the East, same as they ****ed up Russia's strategic air assets.

From a poke-Putin's-eye perspective, the Kerch bridge is just tastier, then?

 

[Tigerace117]

Zoom out on the map. The Povrosk Salient is TINY.

They didn't say shit one way or the other. People assumed. I remember everyone though they were going for the reactor complex, which was absurd.

The Russians have one thing going for them. Meat available to die in waves.

That's nothing to sneeze at, but it doesn't really seem to be working out well for them.

I guess we'll find out if Russia really decides to go after the Baltics this fall.

They’ve got control of multiple oblasts which are not at all tiny.

Zelensky flat out told the Guardian that was the plan back in February.

If that were true the Ukrainians wouldn’t have been driven back as far as they have, and their counterattacks over the last year plus would have actually succeeded.

People have been claiming the Russians are “going to go after the Baltics” since 1991.

 

[Hamish Howl]

From a poke-Putin's-eye perspective, the Kerch bridge is just tastier, then?

Dumping the Kerch bridge would be about the best thing they could do with those drones, if they can pull it off.

 

[Hamish Howl]

They’ve got control of multiple oblasts which are not at all tiny.

Yeah, they started the 2022 invasion holding most of what they have now. I can beat a world class marathon runner if I start the race 10 meters from the finish line.

Zelensky flat out told the Guardian that was the plan back in February.

Link?

If that were true the Ukrainians wouldn’t have been driven back as far as they have, and their counterattacks over the last year plus would have actually succeeded.

People have been claiming the Russians are “going to go after the Baltics” since 1991.

Don't blame me, they're the ones that are saying it.

MSN

 

[Tigerace117]

I'm suggesting it would be hard going for the Russians suddenly back in Poland. Or in Swedish Pomerania, for all I care.

Swedish Pomerania was significantly further west.

If Poland didn’t have enough fun with insurgents in Iraq—-assuming they still wanted to try and take the place aster the initial bloodbath trying to would be for them—you mean?

 

[reinaert]

They’ve got control of multiple oblasts which are not at all tiny.

Zelensky flat out told the Guardian that was the plan back in February.

If that were true the Ukrainians wouldn’t have been driven back as far as they have, and their counterattacks over the last year plus would have actually succeeded.

People have been claiming the Russians are “going to go after the Baltics” since 1991.

Trump's on his throne of shit. Bibi is bent on a wide war. England faces the prospect of faraging itself to death. Eastern Europe needs a decade to jettison the Moscow backed gangs. Modi still has a ****-up in the chamber.

What better window does Putin have before the reaper turns him to worm food?

 

[reinaert]

Swedish Pomerania was significantly further west.

If Poland didn’t have enough fun with insurgents in Iraq—-assuming they still wanted to try and take the place aster the initial bloodbath trying to would be for them—you mean?

And a whoosh, guy. The takeaway was no more Russian control, not who gets it. And it would obviously be Poland. But, Tyr's balls, man...

 

[Tigerace117]

Yeah, they started the 2022 invasion holding most of what they have now. I can beat a world class marathon runner if I start the race 10 meters from the finish line.

Link?

Don't blame me, they're the ones that are saying it.

MSN

They didn’t have any of the southern two oblasts, so that’s not really true.

“If Trump does manage to get Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table, Zelenskyy said he planned to offer Russia a straight territory exchange, giving up land Kyiv has held in Russia’s Kursk region since the launch of a surprise offensive there six months ago.

“We will swap one territory for another,” he said, but added that he did not know which part of Russian-occupied land Ukraine would ask for in return. “I don’t know, we will see. But all our territories are important, there is no priority,” he said.”

Zelenskyy: Europe cannot guarantee Ukraine’s security without America

Exclusive: In extended interview with the Guardian, Ukraine’s president says he will offer US firms lucrative reconstruction contracts to try to get Trump onside

www.theguardian.com

 

[Tigerace117]

Trump's on his throne of shit. Bibi is bent on a wide war. England faces the prospect of faraging itself to death. Eastern Europe needs a decade to jettison the Moscow backed gangs. Modi still has a ****-up in the chamber.

What better window does Putin have before the reaper turns him to worm food?

Well, if Iran and Israel nuke each other like in that Clancy game EndWar I suppose the window is wide open.

 

[Tigerace117]

And a whoosh, guy. The takeaway was no more Russian control, not who gets it. And it would obviously be Poland. But, Tyr's balls, man...

And again, with a ninety plus percent Russian population how exactly do you think one would stop them from simply rejoining Russia even if it was taken?

As already mentioned, if Poland didn’t have enough fun with guerrillas in Iraq, Kaliningrad would be sure to offer them all the trouble they could handle

 

[Hamish Howl]

They didn’t have any of the southern two oblasts, so that’s not really true.

Correct. They got those because a traitor general moved his forces out of the way.

It worked out well for him. He killed himself when he was about to be arrested. One less traitor stinking up the planet.

“If Trump does manage to get Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table, Zelenskyy said he planned to offer Russia a straight territory exchange, giving up land Kyiv has held in Russia’s Kursk region since the launch of a surprise offensive there six months ago.

“We will swap one territory for another,” he said, but added that he did not know which part of Russian-occupied land Ukraine would ask for in return. “I don’t know, we will see. But all our territories are important, there is no priority,” he said.”

Zelenskyy: Europe cannot guarantee Ukraine’s security without America

Exclusive: In extended interview with the Guardian, Ukraine’s president says he will offer US firms lucrative reconstruction contracts to try to get Trump onside

www.theguardian.com

After the fact, why not?

 

[Hamish Howl]

And again, with a ninety plus percent Russian population how exactly do you think one would stop them from simply rejoining Russia even if it was taken?

As already mentioned, if Poland didn’t have enough fun with guerrillas in Iraq, Kaliningrad would be sure to offer them all the trouble they could handle

Assumes again that they would be allowed to remain.

 

[Tigerace117]

Assumes again that they would be allowed to remain.

So ethnic cleansing?

Gee, I get that’s how Poland kept its western land, but it’s going to be kind of hard for the West to pretend to hold any sort of moral high ground while endorsing that.

 

[Hamish Howl]

So ethnic cleansing?

Do you doubt it? I mean, we all know how much the Polish LOVE Russians.

Gee, I get that’s how Poland kept its western land, but it’s going to be kind of hard for the West to pretend to hold any sort of moral high ground while endorsing that.

Oh no, not the moral high ground!

 

[Tigerace117]

Correct. They got those because a traitor general moved his forces out of the way.

It worked out well for him. He killed himself when he was about to be arrested. One less traitor stinking up the planet.

After the fact, why not?

The US was made by “traitor generals”. A Chinese dynasty or two as well, come to think of it.

Regardiess the failure of the Ukrainians to take back any significant amount of that land speaks volumes.

Clearly that was the plan right up until they got defeated on the battlefield and lost those bargaining chips.

 

[Tigerace117]

Do you doubt it? I mean, we all know how much the Polish LOVE Russians.

Oh no, not the moral high ground!

Yeah, going to be hard to explain to all those Polish families why their sons and daughters came back in boxes without any sort of justification.

Poland, after all, is supposedly still a democracy.

If the West doesn’t want to be laughed out of the room every time it tries to get countries to care about what China, for example, is doing in Xinjiang it probably would have to worry about the moral high ground

 

[Hamish Howl]

Yeah, going to be hard to explain to all those Polish families why their sons and daughters came back in boxes without any sort of justification.

What do you mean no justification? If Russia hits the Baltics, Poland is next.

I think Poles understand that better than anyone on the planet. So they can fight on their land, or they can fight on someone else's land.

Poland, after all, is supposedly still a democracy.

If the West doesn’t want to be laughed out of the room every time it tries to get countries to care about what China, for example, is doing in Xinjiang it probably would have to worry about the moral high ground

When was the last time the West gave a shit about Xinjiang or world opinion in general?

 

[Tigerace117]

What do you mean no justification? If Russia hits the Baltics, Poland is next.

I think Poles understand that better than anyone on the planet. So they can fight on their land, or they can fight on someone else's land.

When was the last time the West gave a shit about Xinjiang or world opinion in general?

Paranoia is not a suitable excuse for ethnic cleansing attempts to most people, as it turns out.

The last time they tried that they wound up fighting on their own land anyway.

The West very deeply cares about what countries in the Third World think about China. Trying to pretend otherwise is silly.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Paranoia is not a suitable excuse for ethnic cleansing attempts to most people, as it turns out.

I'm not saying it's walking in the footsteps of saints, dude. I'm telling you what I think would happen.

 

[Tigerace117]

I'm not saying it's walking in the footsteps of saints, dude. I'm telling you what I think would happen.

And I’m pointing out the reasons why it wouldn’t work, even if Poland somehow won.