Tsikhanouskaya's grim warning: Russia might attack the Baltic States from Belarus

[Tigerace117]

Absolutely absurd. They've been preparing for exactly that.

They’ve been posturing over LGBT people existing and having hysterics over innocent civilians daring to not be white Christians fleeing into their country.

Saber rattling doesn’t make you prepared for large scale war.

 

[Hamish Howl]

They’ve been posturing over LGBT people existing and having hysterics over innocent civilians daring to not be white Christians fleeing into their country.

What does that have to do with anything?

Saber rattling doesn’t make you prepared for large scale war.

They haven't done much saber-rattling though. One instance I can think of.

They've just been buying kit and training like crazy. They're also prepared. Ukraine stopped the Russians cold from a standing start; Poland would roll Belarus and any Russians in it.

And of course the Russians could say goodbye to Kaliningrad. It would be gone in a day.

 

[Tigerace117]

What does that have to do with anything?

They haven't done much saber-rattling though. One instance I can think of.

They've just been buying kit and training like crazy. They're also prepared. Ukraine stopped the Russians cold from a standing start; Poland would roll Belarus and any Russians in it.

It shows that they aren’t living in the real world, for starters.

Oh, there’s been no shortage of posturing, especially on social media.

Buying gear doesn’t mean anything. If it did Saudi Arabia would be a superpower.

Gee, Poland “rolled” early on last time too. Then they got rolled all the way back to Warsaw.

.....except the Russians haven’t been stopped. They are still gaining ground in Ukraine

 

[Hamish Howl]

It shows that they aren’t living in the real world, for starters.

Oh, there’s been no shortage of posturing, especially on social media.

From their government? Perhaps you could find an example or two.

Buying gear doesn’t mean anything. If it did Saudi Arabia would be a superpower.

Yes, I also mentioned training, which the Saudis didn't think was necessary.

Gee, Poland “rolled” early on last time too. Then they got rolled all the way back to Warsaw.

.....except the Russians haven’t been stopped. They are still gaining ground in Ukraine

You aren't paying attention, then. How's the Sumy offensive coming along? Has Povrosk fallen yet?

 

[Tigerace117]

From their government? Perhaps you could find an example or two.

Yes, I also mentioned training, which the Saudis didn't think was necessary.

You aren't paying attention, then. How's the Sumy offensive coming along? Has Povrosk fallen yet?

Poland had hundreds of thousands of battle hardened veterans and still got chased all the way back to their capitol the last time time they tried.

Belarus is a sizable country with plenty of marshes and other terrain that would make any such terrain particularly difficult. The Belarusians wouldn’t even need to win conventional fights to turn it into a nightmare for Warsaw.

You can count the number of Abrams tanks Ukraine has left on one hand. The idea that buying a bunch of gear would change things is rather silly.

The fact the Russians are back in Sumy at all speaks volumes, yes.

Weren’t you saying that about Aviidka and Bakhmut too? What happened to them again?

 

[Hamish Howl]

Poland had hundreds of thousands of battle hardened veterans and still got chased all the way back to their capitol the last time time they tried.

You can count the number of Abrams tanks Ukraine has left on one hand. The idea that buying a bunch of gear would change things is rather silly.

Landmines don't care how good your tanks are.

The fact the Russians are back in Sumy at all speaks volumes, yes.

Getting their faces pushed in. They did the same dumbass thing Ukraine did in the South in 2023.

Weren’t you saying that about Aviidka and Bakhmut too? What happened to them again?

Yes, and how long ago was that? What crushing victories - or any significant victories at all - have the Russians enjoyed since?

And what did they do with those victories? Oh, yeah. They overextended into a mud pit South of Povrosk that has one (1) hardball road leading back to Donetsk City, and then died like flies.

 

[Tigerace117]

Landmines don't care how good your tanks are.

Getting their faces pushed in. They did the same dumbass thing Ukraine did in the South in 2023.

Yes, and how long ago was that? What crushing victories - or any significant victories at all - have the Russians enjoyed since?

And what did they do with those victories? Oh, yeah. They overextended into a mud pit South of Povrosk that has one (1) hardball road leading back to Donetsk City, and then died like flies.

So yeah, a Polish invasion would end with a bunch of very fancy burning Polish tanks. Or hey, they could send their infantry into the Pripyat Marshes to vanish like every other invader before them.

Yeah, people keep saying that, and the Russians seem to keep “getting their face pushed in” further and further West. Hmm....

This isn’t a war of “crushing victories”. America’s inability to cope if a war lasts longer than a week isn’t a flaw shared by other countries.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Yeah, people keep saying that, and the Russians seem to keep “getting their face pushed in” further and further West. Hmm....

Except they're not.

This isn’t a war of “crushing victories”. America’s inability to cope if a war lasts longer than a week isn’t a flaw shared by other countries.

Okay. How about any significant victories at all?

Face it, dude. This isn't Stalin's Russia. They're utterly incompetent.

 

[Tigerace117]

Except they're not.

Okay. How about any significant victories at all?

Face it, dude. This isn't Stalin's Russia. They're utterly incompetent.

Sumy isn’t west of Kursk? Since when?

Given Ukraine was apparently badly counting on those handful of settlements they grabbed for the peace table, the facts say otherwise.

If that were true, then what, exactly, does that say about the Ukrainians, who’ve only managed a stalemate at best against them? Much less the equipment of the West, which appears to have accomplished little other than being wrecked in fancy new ways?

None of which, of course, changes the fact that Poland trying to occupy Belarus would be a spectacularly dumb idea.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Sumy isn’t west of Kursk? Since when?

Sure it is. But what has Russia accomplished? They lunged forward 12 kilometers...smack into the positions Ukraine has been preparing for two years. Then they rolled back.

Throwing your men on prepared positions and pulling back a stump isn't exactly Zhukov-level strategy, is it?

Given Ukraine was apparently badly counting on those handful of settlements they grabbed for the peace table, the facts say otherwise.

That's not why they grabbed them. They grabbed them to take pressure off of Povrosk. It worked.

If that were true, then what, exactly, does that say about the Ukrainians, who’ve only managed a stalemate at best against them? Much less the equipment of the West, which appears to have accomplished little other than being wrecked in fancy new ways?

You seem to still be savoring the 2023 debacle. You certainly aren't paying attention to what has been going on in the last 6 months or so.

None of which, of course, changes the fact that Poland trying to occupy Belarus would be a spectacularly dumb idea.

Telling ya, dude: Poland will roll Belarus like a drunk in the alley behind the bar.

 

[reinaert]

Poland is probably licking its chops right now.

One hopes. A front opening up in the Baltics and Poland would see Putin's head on pike.

 

[reinaert]

What does that have to do with anything?

They haven't done much saber-rattling though. One instance I can think of.

They've just been buying kit and training like crazy. They're also prepared. Ukraine stopped the Russians cold from a standing start; Poland would roll Belarus and any Russians in it.

And of course the Russians could say goodbye to Kaliningrad. It would be gone in a day.

You think it would take a whole day to restore Königsburg to freedom?

 

[Hamish Howl]

One hopes. A front opening up in the Baltics and Poland would see Putin's head on pike.

They don't have much choice. If the Baltics fall, Poland has two different fronts to defend when it's their turn in the barrel.

 

[Hamish Howl]

You rhink it would take a whole day to restore Königsburg to freedom?

Yes, it's very built-up in the parts that matter. If you gave a reasonable competent commander 100 troops, he could hold the port for weeks.

Fortunately, this is Russia we're talking about, so that's not an issue.

 

[Tigerace117]

You think it would take a whole day to restore Königsburg to freedom?

What “freedom”? The population is like 90 percent Russian.

 

[reinaert]

Yes, it's very built-up in the parts that matter. If you gave a reasonable competent commander 100 troops, he could hold the port for weeks.

Fortunately, this is Russia we're talking about, so that's not an issue.

Maybe the AFU get an invite to test their latest submersible drones?

 

[reinaert]

What “freedom”? The population is like 90 percent Russian.

(Emphasis mine).

Precisely.

 

[Hamish Howl]

What “freedom”? The population is like 90 percent Russian.

Freedom from having intact buildings with roofs.

Freedom from paying a grocery bill.

Heating costs won't be a thing, either.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Maybe the AFU get an invite to test their latest submersible drones?

I wonder what results you'd get if you stuck those on some rented cargo vessels and sailed them up around Viliuchinsk in Kamchatka?

I mean, it's not outside of the rules. Ukraine can strike the Russians anywhere they are to be found.

 

[Tigerace117]

Sure it is. But what has Russia accomplished? They lunged forward 12 kilometers...smack into the positions Ukraine has been preparing for two years. Then they rolled back.

Throwing your men on prepared positions and pulling back a stump isn't exactly Zhukov-level strategy, is it?

That's not why they grabbed them. They grabbed them to take pressure off of Povrosk. It worked.

You seem to still be savoring the 2023 debacle. You certainly aren't paying attention to what has been going on in the last 6 months or so.

Telling ya, dude: Poland will roll Belarus like a drunk in the alley behind the bar.

Other than taking and holding large chunks of Ukraine?

That’s not what they were saying when they still held....any of that land.

If the Russians were “utterly incompetent” Ukraine should have won by now. There shouldn’t have been a “debacle” to begin with if they were as weak as routinely asserted here.

Yeah, they thought they’d do that last time too. It turned into a disaster for Poland.

 

[Tigerace117]

Freedom from having intact buildings with roofs.

Freedom from paying a grocery bill.

Heating costs won't be a thing, either.

The burning Abrams and Bradleys will probably make good lawn decorations, yeah.

 

[Tigerace117]

(Emphasis mine).

Precisely.

So you are saying Poland didn’t learn anything from their last attempt getting trashed?

You’d need to keep the place under permanent martial law to keep it from simply slaughtering your garrison and rejoining Russia the first chance it gets.

 

[reinaert]

I wonder what results you'd get if you stuck those on some rented cargo vessels and sailed them up around Viliuchinsk in Kamchatka?

I mean, it's not outside of the rules. Ukraine can strike the Russians anywhere they are to be found.

I'm curious why no one has plucked the cosmodrome feather in the Russian cap over near Mongolia. Admittedly, I know little to nothing about the logistics, but it seems a high value morale target. What I am missing here in my expertise vacuum?

 

[Hamish Howl]

Other than taking and holding large chunks of Ukraine?

Zoom out on the map. The Povrosk Salient is TINY.

That’s not what they were saying when they still held....any of that land.

They didn't say shit one way or the other. People assumed. I remember everyone though they were going for the reactor complex, which was absurd.

If the Russians were “utterly incompetent” Ukraine should have won by now. There shouldn’t have been a “debacle” to begin with if they were as weak as routinely asserted here.

The Russians have one thing going for them. Meat available to die in waves.

That's nothing to sneeze at, but it doesn't really seem to be working out well for them.

Yeah, they thought they’d do that last time too. It turned into a disaster for Poland.

I guess we'll find out if Russia really decides to go after the Baltics this fall.

 

[reinaert]

So you are saying Poland didn’t learn anything from their last attempt getting trashed?

You’d need to keep the place under permanent martial law to keep it from simply slaughtering your garrison and rejoining Russia the first chance it gets.

I'm suggesting it would be hard going for the Russians suddenly back in Poland. Or in Swedish Pomerania, for all I care.