Tsikhanouskaya's grim warning: Russia might attack the Baltic States from Belarus

[joluoto]

Russia might use Belarus to attack the Baltics, but Belarusians will not do it, Tsikhanouskaya says​

In any Russian attack on Eastern Europe, closing the Suwalki gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad would be one of Russia's first moves. And that means Belarusian territory would be an important staging ground for the operation. Tsikhanouskaya is also right that the Belarusian army would not be involved, Luka doesn't want his men involved, and Putin doesn't trust the Belarusian army enough, and most important: the Belarusian army really doesn't want to be dragged into a war. The exiled leader think that if Belarusians are forced to fight they'd flee or defect as soon as they find opportunity, something both Putin and Lukashenka are aware of. Lukashenka is militarizing Belarusian society, but he is mostly just concerned with staying in power, and the Belarusian army is really just armed and equipped to kill protestors, not a foreign army. However Russia and Belarus often have large training exercises together on Belarusian territory, and this could be used a pretext for Russia to use Belarus as a staging point for an invasion of the Baltic States, or of northern Ukraine, after all that was exactly what happened in 2022.

What Putin really want from Belarus long term is integrating the country. He wants the Belarusian army integrated in the Russian army, to not have to worry about a force he can't fully trust. He wants the Belarusian economy completely absorbed into the Russian economy, something already happening, and in the end he wants Belarus to just be another Republic within the Russian Federation, something he very well might push for immediately when Lukashenka dies.

​

 

[Rogue Valley]

Russia and Belarus Will Hold a Joint Military Drill in September

Russia and Belarus will hold a joint military exercise in September, officials said, part of efforts by the two neighbors and allies to expand their military ties amid the fighting in Ukraine.

www.military.com

The annual Russia/Belarus Zapad (West) 2025 military exercise. Remember that Russian troops rolled into Ukraine from Belarus on Feb. 24, 2022, after a joint drill with the Belarusian army.

 

[Loulit01]

Russia can't even take Ukraine. Putin isn't stupid enough to attack a NATO country. He likes to stir up fear and uncertainty, but he won't go through with it. NATO would whip him in a week.

 

[CaughtInThe]

 

[soap box]

Russia can't even take Ukraine. Putin isn't stupid enough to attack a NATO country. He likes to stir up fear and uncertainty, but he won't go through with it. NATO would whip him in a week.

One point is that it's entirely possible he's delusional. The other point is that the Russian Federation claims the Baltics must be removed from NATO. That would make it much easier to conquer those nations states. Which reminds me of point 3, his legal counsel announced that the USSR wasn't legally dissolved.

Moscow claims it will end war in Ukraine after NATO pulls out of Baltic states

Moscow will end the war in Ukraine after NATO withdraws troops from the Baltic states, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister ...

www.lrt.lt

 

[joluoto]

One point is that it's entirely possible he's delusional. The other point is that the Russian Federation claims the Baltics must be removed from NATO. That would make it much easier to conquer those nations states. Which reminds me of point 3, his legal counsel announced that the USSR wasn't legally dissolved.

Moscow claims it will end war in Ukraine after NATO pulls out of Baltic states

Moscow will end the war in Ukraine after NATO withdraws troops from the Baltic states, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister ...

www.lrt.lt

Very weird legal advice considering the Soviet of Nationalities (the upper chamber of the Supreme Soviet) dissolved the union of socialist republics in 26 December 1991, thus ending the USSR and making all the SSRs independent nations. So yes, the USSR was legally abolished by the Soviet body that had theoretical authority to do that. This was after the Baltic States had already been granted independence and several other SRs were basically unilaterally declaring that they did not recognize the USSR anymore (including the three founding members, the Ukrainian SSR, the Belarusian SSR, and Russian SFSR).

 

[Rogue Valley]

Trump goons even manhandled and shackled a US Senator from California for attempting to ask a question at a (DHS Secretary) Kristi Noem newser in Los Angeles.

They knew who he was. He was wearing a US Senate patch polo shirt and was vetted by the SS and FBI to enter the Federal Building for a meeting with the Commander of the Northern US Military District (which includes CA) that didn't transpire.

When that meeting fizzled out, Senator Padilla walked down the hall and saw an open room where Noem was taking questions from the press. Sen. Padilla entered and attempted to ask a question after identifying himself.

Afterwards, Noem lied on Fox News and said Padilla lunged at her... which the video debunks. Senator Padilla was not arrested.

The Secret Service and FBI agents should know US Senators by sight. There are only 100 of these individuals in a nation of 340 million people.

If Trump goons treat a US Senator so rudely, imagine how they are treating Hispanic farm workers, hospitality workers, food industry workers, and children in schools.

Trump ordered ICE to arrest and deport 3,000 individuals every day. Initially, this process was stated to encompass only violent criminals in the US illegally. The worst of the worst. Now, anyone is fair game.

I myself have no papers on me (beyond my state drivers license and some old military ID's) proving that I am an American citizen. In practice, that isn't good enough for the ICE goons.

 

[soap box]

Trump goons even manhandled and shackled a US Senator from California for attempting to ask a question at a (DHS Secretary) Kristi Noem newser in Los Angeles.

They knew who he was. He was wearing a US Senate patch polo shirt and was vetted by the SS and FBI to enter the Federal Building for a meeting with the Commander of the Northern US Military District (which includes CA) that didn't transpire.

When that meeting fizzled out, Senator Padilla walked down the hall and saw an open room where Noem was taking questions from the press. Sen. Padilla entered and attempted to ask a question after identifying himself.

Afterwards, Noem lied on Fox News and said Padilla lunged at her... which the video debunks. Senator Padilla was not arrested.

The Secret Service and FBI agents should know US Senators by sight. There are only 100 of these individuals in a nation of 340 million people.

If Trump goons treat a US Senator so rudely, imagine how they are treating Hispanic farm workers, hospitality workers, food industry workers, and children in schools.

Trump ordered ICE to arrest and deport 3,000 individuals every day. Initially, this process was stated to encompass only violent criminals in the US illegally. The worst of the worst. Now, anyone is fair game.

I myself have no papers on me (beyond my state drivers license and some old military ID's) proving that I am an American citizen. In practice, that isn't good enough for the ICE goons.

I totally agree, but I think you were intending to post in another thread, maybe?

 

[soap box]

Very weird legal advice considering the Soviet of Nationalities (the upper chamber of the Supreme Soviet) dissolved the union of socialist republics in 26 December 1991, thus ending the USSR and making all the SSRs independent nations. So yes, the USSR was legally abolished by the Soviet body that had theoretical authority to do that. This was after the Baltic States had already been granted independence and several other SRs were basically unilaterally declaring that they did not recognize the USSR anymore (including the three founding members, the Ukrainian SSR, the Belarusian SSR, and Russian SFSR).

I think these claims are to establish a premise for restoration of the USSR. False claims, but the intent is there.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Yet another example of Republicans / the Trump Administration not being able to see more than two weeks into the future.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Poland is probably licking its chops right now.

 

[Roadvirus]

Russia might use Belarus to attack the Baltics, but Belarusians will not do it, Tsikhanouskaya says​

In any Russian attack on Eastern Europe, closing the Suwalki gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad would be one of Russia's first moves. And that means Belarusian territory would be an important staging ground for the operation. Tsikhanouskaya is also right that the Belarusian army would not be involved, Luka doesn't want his men involved, and Putin doesn't trust the Belarusian army enough, and most important: the Belarusian army really doesn't want to be dragged into a war. The exiled leader think that if Belarusians are forced to fight they'd flee or defect as soon as they find opportunity, something both Putin and Lukashenka are aware of. Lukashenka is militarizing Belarusian society, but he is mostly just concerned with staying in power, and the Belarusian army is really just armed and equipped to kill protestors, not a foreign army. However Russia and Belarus often have large training exercises together on Belarusian territory, and this could be used a pretext for Russia to use Belarus as a staging point for an invasion of the Baltic States, or of northern Ukraine, after all that was exactly what happened in 2022.

What Putin really want from Belarus long term is integrating the country. He wants the Belarusian army integrated in the Russian army, to not have to worry about a force he can't fully trust. He wants the Belarusian economy completely absorbed into the Russian economy, something already happening, and in the end he wants Belarus to just be another Republic within the Russian Federation, something he very well might push for immediately when Lukashenka dies.

​

A direct attack on a NATO country would also mean NATO get's to freely directly attack Russia.

Someone should remind him of that.

 

[JoeyJoystick]

Russia can't even take Ukraine. Putin isn't stupid enough to attack a NATO country. He likes to stir up fear and uncertainty, but he won't go through with it. NATO would whip him in a week.

Hi Loulit,

I agree but things are a little more nuanced I think. The tactics are very different. Combine this with the cultural differences and the lack of understanding thereof and you have a very high risk factor.

Much of this is presently on display in the Baltic Sea. Russia provokes the Baltic states plus Sweden, Finland, Germany, and Poland. Continuously. For years already. Every time the wests response is to tighten the net. Since it is unlikely that Russia will stop the provocations, and the west is also unlikely to use a different strategy to avoid further escalation, the ultimate outcome does not look good if you ask me. I do not think that Russia will initiate an attack. But I do think there is a very high chance that Russia overplays its cards and gets itself in a situation where it can not afford to 'Not Respond'.

So, no. Russia is not going to attack any of the Baltic states. It's not going to 'close the gap'. But there are a lot of other things that can go wrong.


Joey

 

[JoeyJoystick]

Russia might use Belarus to attack the Baltics, but Belarusians will not do it, Tsikhanouskaya says​

In any Russian attack on Eastern Europe, closing the Suwalki gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad would be one of Russia's first moves. And that means Belarusian territory would be an important staging ground for the operation. Tsikhanouskaya is also right that the Belarusian army would not be involved, Luka doesn't want his men involved, and Putin doesn't trust the Belarusian army enough, and most important: the Belarusian army really doesn't want to be dragged into a war. The exiled leader think that if Belarusians are forced to fight they'd flee or defect as soon as they find opportunity, something both Putin and Lukashenka are aware of. Lukashenka is militarizing Belarusian society, but he is mostly just concerned with staying in power, and the Belarusian army is really just armed and equipped to kill protestors, not a foreign army. However Russia and Belarus often have large training exercises together on Belarusian territory, and this could be used a pretext for Russia to use Belarus as a staging point for an invasion of the Baltic States, or of northern Ukraine, after all that was exactly what happened in 2022.

What Putin really want from Belarus long term is integrating the country. He wants the Belarusian army integrated in the Russian army, to not have to worry about a force he can't fully trust. He wants the Belarusian economy completely absorbed into the Russian economy, something already happening, and in the end he wants Belarus to just be another Republic within the Russian Federation, something he very well might push for immediately when Lukashenka dies.

​

Hi Joluoto,

Nope. An attack from Russia on a NATO country is a virtual guarantee for nuclear war. I not think high of Putin, but he's certainly not that stupid.

However, I think there are ways for him to at least try. What could he try? He could use a false pretext. Much like Hitler did with the invasion of Poland. It worked, but only in the short term. He could also use Belarus in this perspective as well. I know they don't particularly like each other, but I am pretty sure that Putin is quite capable of making 'an offer which Lukashenko can not refuse'...

I think there is a serious amount of propaganda and fear mongering in the message though.


Joey

 

[joluoto]

Hi Joluoto,

Nope. An attack from Russia on a NATO country is a virtual guarantee for nuclear war. I not think high of Putin, but he's certainly not that stupid.

However, I think there are ways for him to at least try. What could he try? He could use a false pretext. Much like Hitler did with the invasion of Poland. It worked, but only in the short term. He could also use Belarus in this perspective as well. I know they don't particularly like each other, but I am pretty sure that Putin is quite capable of making 'an offer which Lukashenko can not refuse'...

I think there is a serious amount of propaganda and fear mongering in the message though.


Joey

Putin knows as long as Trump is President NATO is a lie and doesn't actually exist.

 

[JoeyJoystick]

Putin knows as long as Trump is President NATO is a lie and doesn't actually exist.

Hi Joluoto,

He thinks he knows. Does he know? Do you really believe that NATO will not respond when Trump is president? When there is overwhelming consent in congress, Trump has nothing to say anymore. On this they are very Hawkish and do not agree with Trump. They will overwhelmingly vote in favour of a NATO response.

Remember 9/11? Every NATO country was on the side of the US. Do not think for a second that they have forgotten this. And events like this always unite people and countries. Just like you saw right before and right after the invasion of Ukraine. Russia had severely underestimated the unity within Europe. And he's paying the price for this every day right now.


Joey

 

[joluoto]

Hi Joluoto,

He thinks he knows. Does he know? Do you really believe that NATO will not respond when Trump is president? When there is overwhelming consent in congress, Trump has nothing to say anymore. On this they are very Hawkish and do not agree with Trump. They will overwhelmingly vote in favour of a NATO response.

Remember 9/11? Every NATO country was on the side of the US. Do not think for a second that they have forgotten this. And events like this always unite people and countries. Just like you saw right before and right after the invasion of Ukraine. Russia had severely underestimated the unity within Europe. And he's paying the price for this every day right now.


Joey

Congress? They are all scared shitless of Trump? They will do whatever Trump tells them to do.

 

[JoeyJoystick]

Congress? They are all scared shitless of Trump? They will do whatever Trump tells them to do.

Hi Juluoto,

The way I understand how it works is the following; A declaration of war can be voted for in congress by a simple majority. In addition to this, The US president does not have the power to override or veto a declaration of war by congress. Sorry your argument does not stand if that is correct. Surely they will have more than 50% of the vote.


Joey

 

[joluoto]

Hi Juluoto,

The way I understand how it works is the following; A declaration of war can be voted for in congress by a simple majority. In addition to this, The US president does not have the power to override or veto a declaration of war by congress. Sorry your argument does not stand if that is correct. Surely they will have more than 50% of the vote.


Joey

There won't be a vote. Congress doesn't declare war anymore, US goes to war undeclared nowadays. And Trump is not a normal President. Constitution and law means nothing in Trumpian America. And the Congress is scared of him, especially the Republicans who hold majority, but also many Democrats. They will comply with whatever Trump says.

 

[Tigerace117]

Poland is probably licking its chops right now.

The last time they tried that it ended very poorly for Pilsudki and his pals.

 

[Hamish Howl]

The last time they tried that it ended very poorly for Pilsudki and his pals.

That was then; this is now.

Have you been paying any attention to Poland over the last 3-4 years?

 

[Tigerace117]

Putin knows as long as Trump is President NATO is a lie and doesn't actually exist.

So why’d you bother signing up?

 

[Tigerace117]

That was then; this is now.

Have you been paying any attention to Poland over the last 3-4 years?

Yeah, if anything Poland is less prepared for the sort of large scale fighting that would result. Pilsudki had a hardened core of veterans from multiple militaries who’d survived World War One.

Yeah, I have. Poland shaking in fear over LGBT people and refugees fleeing death squads and tyrants in the Middle East and Africa doesn’t exactly impress.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Putin knows as long as Trump is President NATO is a lie and doesn't actually exist.

NATO without the USA is still better than no NATO.

Provided the European Big Four can agree or make a decision on anything at all, which has yet to be seen.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Yeah, if anything Poland is less prepared for the sort of large scale fighting that would result. Pilsudki had a hardened core of veterans from multiple militaries who’d survived World War One.

Yeah, I have. Poland shaking in fear over LGBT people and refugees fleeing death squads and tyrants in the Middle East and Africa doesn’t exactly impress.

Absolutely absurd. They've been preparing for exactly that.