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Trump's poll numbers dropping like a rock

Gateman_Wen said:
I'm a bit more pessimistic than that. He's been down before. It just doesn't seem to stick.
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Not really. His approval was incredibly constant for years. His hold on the Republican Party is threats, and they're looking for a way to get rid of him IMO. go back and look at how Republican leaders talked about him in 2015.
 
Mycroft said:
Hey. New guy. Guess what? You are about to find out why you should be careful using polls to justify your bias.

Here are two facts about polls:

1. When it comes to snapshots in time, two weeks is an eternity. Things change.

2. When pollsters over and under sample, they are applying their own bias to the results of the poll.

Here are the facts about the Marquette poll:

1. It's more than two weeks old.

2. They under sampled Republicans and Independents and over sampled Democrats. (based on the gold standard for party affiliation: https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx)

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POLL REJECTED!!!
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You shoulld read the book, How to Lie with Statistics. It is short but informative.
 
Gateman_Wen said:
I'm a bit more pessimistic than that. He's been down before. It just doesn't seem to stick.
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He lost the anti vaxxers. Biden probably thought his supporters would get vaxxed if he praised him for the vaccines. Instead it made him less popular. A win either way I guess.
 
pocket aces said:
He lost the anti vaxxers. Biden probably thought his supporters would get vaxxed if he praised him for the vaccines. Instead it made him less popular. A win either way I guess.
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They've got really short and selective memories.
 
independentusa said:
You shoulld read the book, How to Lie with Statistics. It is short but informative.
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Don't need to read the book. We see it in almost every poll that is conducted and released.
 
Jay59 said:
You keep saying that but where is the evidence? Trump has been investigated in depth and nothing came of it. Democrats had to make things up to find a pretext to impeach him, which impeachment was thrown out on the pleadings.


While it is very possible to make biased polls, over and undersampling is not a problem in and of itself. Of course, if your weighting is incorrect...

It should go without saying that Trump's numbers were depressed and Biden's numbers inflated to the extent the pollster thought that they could justify with a straight face. The hopeful thing is that as elections approach such games become more dangerous. Being badly wrong can do serious damage to a pollster's reputation, eg Quinnipiac was significantly off throughout 2020 and dropped from the elite ranks.


Do you mean the guy who has Trump's polls and Biden's polls in a virtual tie? This despite being a Biden supporter.


This is generally wrong. The exception is when all the pollsters share a bias. It is well established that pollsters exhibit herd behavior, so this is more common than it ought to be.


Thanks for the confirmation of your bias.


Mueller's is. That was by far the biggest and most comprehensive one. Everything else is small change in comparison.


No need. The facts do it for me.
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if someone does work for you or sells you something and you don't pay them are you a thief?
 
Mycroft said:
Don't need to read the book. We see it in almost every poll that is conducted and released.
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Polls can be manipulated by who you poll. With statistics the book said that anyone could argue both sides of any argument with the same numbers. Gave a whole new outlook on what could have been a pretty stuffy class.
 
Mycroft said:
Hey. New guy. Guess what? You are about to find out why you should be careful using polls to justify your bias.

Here are two facts about polls:

1. When it comes to snapshots in time, two weeks is an eternity. Things change.

2. When pollsters over and under sample, they are applying their own bias to the results of the poll.

Here are the facts about the Marquette poll:

1. It's more than two weeks old.

2. They under sampled Republicans and Independents and over sampled Democrats. (based on the gold standard for party affiliation: https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx)

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View attachment 67374223

POLL REJECTED!!!
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It's like the Rasmussen and Federalist Polls which uses more GOP to skew results.

Polls are merely propaganda
 
Mycroft said:
Hey. New guy. Guess what? You are about to find out why you should be careful using polls to justify your bias.

Here are two facts about polls:

1. When it comes to snapshots in time, two weeks is an eternity. Things change.

2. When pollsters over and under sample, they are applying their own bias to the results of the poll.

Here are the facts about the Marquette poll:

1. It's more than two weeks old.

2. They under sampled Republicans and Independents and over sampled Democrats. (based on the gold standard for party affiliation: https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx)

View attachment 67374224
View attachment 67374223

POLL REJECTED!!!
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Mycroft, you mean to tell me these high ranked leaders in the GOP lied about their feelings regarding Trump after Jan 6?

 
Luckyone said:
Mycroft, you mean to tell me these high ranked leaders in the GOP lied about their feelings regarding Trump after Jan 6?

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LOL!!

Of course they did. Show me a politician who doesn't lie when the political winds start blowing and I'll show you a politician who isn't "high ranked". And it doesn't matter what their party.
 
Mycroft said:
LOL!!

Of course they did. Show me a politician who doesn't lie when the political winds start blowing and I'll show you a politician who isn't "high ranked". And it doesn't matter what their party.
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Well then, I don't have to say anything else do I? The GOP as a whole, are a lying bunch of people that believe in nothing but being in power and cashing in on it. At least the "lying" Democrats are not in it "for themselves". They are lying in order to get the less fortunate the help they need.

All lies are not the same.

White lies and black lies: What they have in common and how they differ​

Black lies, or telling a lie to gain a personal benefit, are universally condemned. In contrast, white lies, or telling a lie to please another person, are seen as an innocent part of everyday interactions.
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This post of yours suggests that you are for Black Lies being said by the GOP. Lies that benefit them for "personal benefit".

In it for your personal benefit Mycroft? How is it that I am not in the least "surprised?"

kingofthehill.webp
 
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Jay59 said:
Except he was investigated and nothing was found.
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Of course it was found. The corrupt senate just refused to act on it. Those are very different things. Don't confuse the two.

"Just because actions meet a standard of impeachment does not mean it is in the best interest of the country to remove a President from office.”
-Marco Rubio (R)
 
XDU said:
Both Biden and Trump have issues.
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Yes. Both have issues. Biden is dealing with post-pandemic inflation issues. Trump is a mentally deranged narcissist who would rather burn American democracy to the ground than accept that he lost an election.
 
As to the attempted deflection away from Trump, why would the left be worried about Biden's poll numbers? Before the 2024 election, we have been told by the brain trust on that right that it is a certainty he will either:
  1. Die,
  2. Resign out of health concerns or to let Kamala run as an incumbent, or
  3. Simply choose not to run.
 
ataraxia said:
Of course it was found. The corrupt senate just refused to act on it. Those are very different things. Don't confuse the two.

"Just because actions meet a standard of impeachment does not mean it is in the best interest of the country to remove a President from office.”
-Marco Rubio (R)
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That's called insufficient grounds. Even if everything is assumed to be true, there was not a sufficient reason given to remove the President from office. Your own quote states as much.

ataraxia said:
Yes. Both have issues. Biden is dealing with post-pandemic inflation issues. Trump is a mentally deranged narcissist who would rather burn American democracy to the ground than accept that he lost an election.
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However, Trump is proven to be a competent President and Biden is proven to be an incompetent one.

History has already given Trump a gift--Joe Biden.

Buckeyes85 said:
As to the attempted deflection away from Trump, why would the left be worried about Biden's poll numbers? Before the 2024 election, we have been told by the brain trust on that right that it is a certainty he will either:
  1. Die,
  2. Resign out of health concerns or to let Kamala run as an incumbent, or
  3. Simply choose not to run.
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Democrats are aware that midterm elections are referendums on the sitting President. When his poll numbers tank, especially when it is by independents defecting, it says bad things about the election in less than nine months.
 
Mycroft said:
POLL REJECTED!!!
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Mycroft spews the same mathematically invalid whine in every poll thread when that poll says something he doesn't like.

Never once has he raised this objection in any poll he likes.
 
Deuce said:
Mycroft spews the same mathematically invalid whine in every poll thread when that poll says something he doesn't like.

Never once has he raised this objection in any poll he likes.
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Like...not like...irrelevant. I disregard every poll.

I simply judge the polls based on their own sampling numbers.
 
Mycroft said:
Relying on poll aggregates is almost as bad as relying on bogus polls. And average of bogus polls gives you a bogus average.
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What polls would you recommend?
Never mind. By your above statement you ignore all polls.
 
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