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Trump's numbers continue to worsen

Bucky said:
Just to be clear, he is not racist?
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At very least he's happy to enjoy and encourage the support of racists and in the end, doesn't it amount to the same?
 
Chomsky said:
Great point! And not just redistricting, but voting itself. States can do a lot to encourage or discourage voting.

Oh, but there's a double-edges sword to redistricting, that started to rear its head in 2018.

Essentially, redistricting works by strategically dispersing your voters across the districts, and packing-in your opponents' voters into as few districts as possible. But what happens when you spread your voters out, only to have a wave that exceeds the moderate majorities you've established? You can get a Tsunami against you as the general vote blows past your fail-safe majority number!

For example, let's say you redistrict to have a bunch of districts that are an ordinarily safe 58%. You've optimized the use of your voters. Ordinarily, you'll keep those districts - that's the idea. But what happens if the vote goes 60% against you? BAM! You get blown out! Why? Because you no longer have the 60-70-80% districts that would have held. Instead, you spread those voters out too thin at 58%, and you've paid the price.

Can it happen in 2020? Perhaps. To what degree, I don't know. But Trump recently has been pretty successful in turning formerly safe Red States into new Contesteds!
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I referenced a wave blowout election and its negative impact on gerrymandered congressional districts thx anyway for a bloated lecture.
 
Dittohead not! said:
So, you think that the strategy of looking bad is going to work? I'm sure Trump hopes so, as he really is good at looking bad.

Are people blaming Antifa and BLM "taking over cities" (gross exaggeration, but whatever) on Biden?
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Biden's a mainstream Democrat. Of course he supports Antifa and BLM. Wouldn't be surprised if he creates a new cabinet position for them in his administration.
 
Drawdown said:
LOL. Wrong places. If he dd something like the Obama bus tour through the carolinas or PA/Ohio with quick 15 minutes speeches and some well-planned "unexpected stop" at dinners here and there, he would be off to the races.
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The problem with Trump is he has no policies or plans for a second term. He never had them for his first term. All he has is dementia Joe and everything is a hoax. What is he going to do for thousands of sick Americans? For thousands of unemployed?

When Trump realizes that solving the virus problem is the economy, maybe he'll gain some traction. So far all he does is divide, complain, play the victim, and call people names.

That's just not a winning prospect.
 
 
Mycroft said:
You didn't read that last link. Biden couldn't even read it.
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You should obviously know I am not referring to a Biden speech. I am referring to the presidential daily brief. Trump is putting our national security at risk.
 
The AntiDonald said:
You should obviously know I am not referring to a Biden speech. I am referring to the presidential daily brief. Trump is putting our national security at risk.
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I know...I was killing two birds with one stone: Kicking your deflection to the curb and pointing out that reading doesn't help Biden one bit.
 
lemmiwinx said:
Biden's a mainstream Democrat. Of course he supports Antifa and BLM. Wouldn't be surprised if he creates a new cabinet position for them in his administration.
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I would be very surprised, but I wouldn't be surprised to find that the Trumpers were claiming that was on the Democratic platform. They claim that Democrats are for open borders, after all, and that they want to defund the police. Making outrageous claims about what Democrats want to do is all the Trumpers have.
 
JackA said:
A couple of months ago Biden's average poll rating over Trump's ran between five and six percent. New polls published today put it almost 10 percent. At the same time, Trump's disapproval rating has surged as of today to 16 points above his approval rating. If Trump is hoping the trend against him will reverse when voters see for themselves that "Biden can't speak", Trump's current line of attack, he has to hope Biden's articulate address and press conference today aren't a harbinger of things to come.

National President: general election Polls | FiveThirtyEight
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Trump's numbers continue to worsen... hope in America continues to climb.
 
beefheart said:
Aw, look at you, you don't like the news so you say its fake.

How lazy.
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Can't wait to see them claim trump getting frog marched out of the white house next January as fake news.
 
No way Trump is a racist...but Obama is. If you'd care to discuss that.
 
Corpsie said:
No way Trump is a racist...but Obama is. If you'd care to discuss that.
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He's happy to enjoy the support of racists which makes him just as divisive; and there's the fact that he's incompetent.... :roll:
 
Drawdown said:
It is patently true. That "same link" changes and I provided the information on Biden from 1 end to the other. 1.3 points since February. That is abysmal considering everything that has happened since February.
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But Biden wasn't even nominated back then. He was in a field of a dozen hopefuls. And he indeed has risen to substantively above 50% since then.

But I am willing to give you credit for the general idea that Trump has fallen faster than Biden has climbed (by a factor of a little over 2:1 by my estimate). And, I will withdraw the 'patently false' phrase. That was harsh, and you have supplied supplied data that adds to your position in general, even if technically Biden did rise.

Thanks for the reply, and your fair & respectful demeanor.
 
Tangmo said:
I referenced a wave blowout election and its negative impact on gerrymandered congressional districts thx anyway for a bloated lecture.
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Alright, sorry if I insulted your intelligence.
 
Chomsky said:
But Biden wasn't even nominated back then. He was in a field of a dozen hopefuls. And he indeed has risen to substantively above 50% since then.

But I am willing to give you credit for the general idea that Trump has fallen faster than Biden has climbed (by a factor of a little over 2:1 by my estimate). And, I will withdraw the 'patently false' phrase. That was harsh, and you have supplied supplied data that adds to your position in general, even if technically Biden did rise.

Thanks for the reply, and your fair & respectful demeanor.
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I would not call 1.3 percent substantive gains. It is margin of error gain
 
Common Sense 1 said:
Oh my... The president is doomed again. Just look at theses meaningless polls.

Once our friend Biden gets out of the Delaware bunker the public will see the
major mental problems he has.
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Keeping making that point ... please.

YouTube

Trumps real problem is MOST AmeriCANs can't stand the SOB; we now know the answer to "What have you got to lose"; everything we hold dear.

Not only is VP Biden more popular, AmeriCANs are chomping at the bit to vote AGAINST Dugout Donnie. They aren't going to sit home this time, they know what can happen if they don't vote.
 
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Chomsky said:
But Biden wasn't even nominated back then. He was in a field of a dozen hopefuls. And he indeed has risen to substantively above 50% since then.

But I am willing to give you credit for the general idea that Trump has fallen faster than Biden has climbed (by a factor of a little over 2:1 by my estimate). And, I will withdraw the 'patently false' phrase. That was harsh, and you have supplied supplied data that adds to your position in general, even if technically Biden did rise.

Thanks for the reply, and your fair & respectful demeanor.
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Right, and he still he isn't nominated. The last Sanders holdouts will move to him when he is
 
Common Sense 1 said:
Oh my... The president is doomed again. Just look at theses meaningless polls.

Once our friend Biden gets out of the Delaware bunker the public will see the
major mental problems he has.
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The beauty of this talking point is that so many Trump supporters are counting on it. Trump has made Biden's "mental problems" his key argument. But Biden is the same guy he has always been, as his two recent press conferences plainly demonstrated. Trump supporters seem not to have watched them. Wonder why.
 
Drawdown said:
I would not call 1.3 percent substantive gains. It is margin of error gain
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You just won't let this quit, will you?

With an average RCP MOE of around 3-1/2 pts, where does that put Trump's slide? Just barely outside? By bringing-up MOE you're pretty much invalidating the entire discussion, because both candidates are either in the MOE or very close. Either you're arguing the numbers, or not.
 
Chomsky said:
You just won't let this quit, will you?

With an average RCP MOE of around 3-1/2 pts, where does that put Trump's slide? Just barely outside? By bringing-up MOE you're pretty much invalidating the entire discussion, because both candidates are either in the MOE or very close. Either you're arguing the numbers, or not.
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I have been stating the numbers as they exist. I restated the numbers based on the source. Biden has gained 1.3 points since February. That is simply a fact. You are the one trying to manufacture Biden's barely having a pulse as a huge gain, not me.
 
JackA said:
Right, and he still he isn't nominated. The last Sanders holdouts will move to him when he is
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Actually, I saw an article displaying that many Bernie Baby hold-outs are acquiescing to the inevitability of Biden. Essentially their abhorrence of Trump, and what Trump is doing to the country, is pushing them into Biden's camp. But yeah, I agree. Biden's numbers will increase a bit after he accepts the nomination & starts campaigning as the Dem nominee.
 
Drawdown said:
I have been stating the numbers as they exist. I restated the numbers based on the source. Biden has gained 1.3 points since February. That is simply a fact. You are the one trying to manufacture Biden's barely having a pulse as a huge gain, not me.
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So by that admission you've proven my original argument, and disproven yours it seems.

Q.E.D.
 
Chomsky said:
So you've proven my original argument, and disproven yours it seems.

Q.E.D.
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No gaining at best 1.3 percent from february to clinching the nomination is not substantive. Declare yourself the victor gain while refusing to make an argument will get you on my permaignore list.
 
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