Trump orders rapid withdrawal from Syria in apparent reversal

[TU Curmudgeon]

The majority of Muslims in Iran are Shiites; most Muslims are Sunnis.

Getting the labels backwards isn't quite as bad as not even knowing that Muslims came in two major theological sub-sets (which is something that Mr. Bush (GW that is) didn't know.

 

[Tom Horn]

Looks like Putin snapped his fingers again and made trump his bitch yet again...

Trump orders rapid withdrawal from Syria in apparent reversal

Planning is underway for a "full" and "rapid" withdrawal of US troops from Syria, a US defense official told CNN Wednesday.

The decision, which would be a reversal from previously stated US policy, was made by President Donald Trump, who has long signaled his desire to get out of Syria, the official added. On Wednesday morning, the President tweeted, "we have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency."​

good. We had no business in there to start with. Barry should’ve never armed ISIS in the first place.

 

[Plus Ultra]

Apparently Trump is moderating the celerity with which he will withdraw due to concern over those Kurds. Ultimately the US doesn't want to get involved in the creation of a Kurdish state, this is an interesting option, it could be beneficial for the US, but there are lots of drawbacks too, most significantly seriously antagonizing Turkey. I don't see a solution that is satisfactory for all, temporarily maintaining some US military deployments just delays the reckoning. I'd expect Turkey is most eager to get the US out so they can go after the Kurds unhindered. For the Russians it would look good to have the US pull out, but having the Turks come in would make things more difficult. I'm not sure how the Iranians see this development, I suppose the US withdrawal would be seen as a victory, but the Kurds have been helpful in eradicating ISIS and this is also an Iranian goal, moreover, Turkey is a rival power and they probably wouldn't like to see them strengthened decimating Kurds. Iran has restless Kurds of their own. Assad would probably prefer to have the US withdraw, he too would see this as a victory and he would be able to act with greater impunity suppressing their independence efforts, possibly recover the only natural asset Syria has (those insignificant oil fields).

Clearly the effect of a US withdrawal is a complicated issue and I haven't seen any analysis that considers enough of the different interests, I also don't see how any of them justify either digging in or an accelerated pull out. I think the solution requires a much more diplomatic approach than has been evident from Trump's DoS, if he simply lacks the capacity to reach a deal that adequately accommodates all these diverse interests, then this unilateral withdrawal could be the best option.