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Trump Launches War On Iran

Napoleon said:
Regime change is inevitable because Ayatollah Khamenei is 86 years old. The only question is what happens when he dies? Will his son and heir be crowned the next Supreme Leader in a smooth transition? Will Ayatollah Larijani murder him and seize power? Or will the Iranian people sack up and put an end to this Islamic reign of terror?
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That's up to Iranians, nobody else.
 
Napoleon said:
Regime change is inevitable because Ayatollah Khamenei is 86 years old. The only question is what happens when he dies? Will his son and heir be crowned the next Supreme Leader in a smooth transition? Will Ayatollah Larijani murder him and seize power? Or will the Iranian people sack up and put an end to this Islamic reign of terror?
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If there's a military coup it would be by the Revolutionary Guard who would place a 2-star in as president and supreme leader. The Revolutionary Guard hates Israeli guts. An IRG coup is reasonably likely given the ayatollahs have presided over the decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah, the defeat of Iran backed militias in Syria where their guy Assad was chased out to Moscow, and Israel getting the US to bomb nuclear program sites to wreck the equipment and technologies. Israel has killed off nuclear scientists and IRG high ranking chiefs and commanders. Indeed, the ayatollahs have nothing left in 'em. The IRG has to intercept this runaway train of major disasters.
 
Guess Trump doesn't realize the Dept of Energy doesn't actually do any drilling...

GuId6ZAXQAA0TUW


Hey Donny, stop being a "Panican"!
 
ElChupacabra said:
What about all of the years prior when they were two weeks away as well?
Sure, and that's an understandable concern. The question is why haven't they developed them in all of the years they were supposedly close to having one.
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Iran was working on nukes all that time. That is how they managed to get more than 1300 pounds of 60% enriched U235.


ElChupacabra said:
So we hear, but what the nuclear arms race has taught us is the desire for self preservation still supersedes any ambition to use nuclear weapons offensively because of the chain reaction it would cause and almost certainly lead to the destruction of the nation that uses them. We had two super powers armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons yet neither used them for this purpose because they understand the implications. The same is true for other nuclear powers because they know global alliances will trigger similar attacks against any aggressor using these weapons.
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Once everyone has nukes, it is inevitable that someone will use them.


ElChupacabra said:
No one is sure is the only thing that can be said with any certainty. Some speculate the trucks seen outside Fordo a day or two before the strike could mean they were there to help reinforce the facility or potentially transport the material out.
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I am sure that they moved their more than 1300 pounds of 60% enriched U235.

It is the claim that they moved all their centrifuges that is questionable.
 
Napoleon said:
So your argument is shades of non-compliance?
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Indeed, because shades of compliance is something to work with in the context of an agreement where there are incentives for Iran to be compliant. Outside of that framework they don't have to comply with anything.

Napoleon said:
Explain in detail what you mean by “more compliant” and the science behind why you believe that.
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Gladly, and we'll start off with a graph illustrating exactly when I'm referring to.

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On the lower right side of the graph you'll not the uranium enrichment levels which were within the compliance levels. You'll note from the center of the graph moving towards the right are Iran's enrichment levels post US withdrawal, which also ended the wider transparency inspectors had to their facilities. Iran did have a covert program they didn't disclose to the IAEA as they should have, but the question is whether it made more sense to hold them accountable for that within the deal framework versus taking the approach the Trump administration did back in 2018. Clearly the Trump administration's strategy of sanctions as a deterrent failed miserably since not only did Iran ramp up their efforts, but also at higher enrichment levels.
 
Napoleon said:
The fact remains that Iran never stopped enriching uranium (and it won’t because it needs that fuel for its reactors) and was never compliant with the agreement. The fact remains that Iran is doing what it has always done in enriching uranium (next level? lol). The fact remains that diplomacy has never succeeded in non-proliferation anywhere it has been tried. Those are the inconvenient truths.
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We got decades with either sanctions or agreements and no nuclear weapons. The IAEA said there were no violations of JCPOA before we withdraw from it.

So all this 60% enrichment and Iran's resuming of nuclear weapons programs came AFTER Trump pulled us out of the arrangement.
 
Toggle Almendro said:
Iran was working on nukes all that time. That is how they managed to get more than 1300 pounds of 60% enriched U235.
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They started enriching at that level post JCPOA. Of course, the other point to note is while Iran didn't abide by the JCPOA limitations after the deal was ended, they were still allowing IAEA inspectors into the country.

Toggle Almendro said:
Once everyone has nukes, it is inevitable that someone will use them.
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Fortunately that hasn't happened yet, and the US is the only country that has.

Toggle Almendro said:
I am sure that they moved their more than 1300 pounds of 60% enriched U235.

It is the claim that they moved all their centrifuges that is questionable.
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Right, and there's no way of knowing that for sure just yet.
 
Napoleon said:
You do know that Iran has never fully complied with IAEA inspections and didn’t limit uranium enrichment to a single facility as required by the agreement, right?
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What agreement? The one Trump ended?
 
Napoleon said:
That would be a fair argument if Iran wasn’t a sponsor of international terrorism and a general nuisance in the region.
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A Sovereign country is a sovereign country, no matter which way you slice it.
 
Fletch said:
Iran is and has been the central source for terrorism in the Middle East. If they developed a nuke would they use it? I doubt it. But that doesnt mean that they wouldnt arm one of its many proxies with one. Now, we no longer have to worry about that.
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Well, except for the fact that Iran - and therefore their terrorist proxies - are now saying to expect vengeance.

And 🤷‍♀️ we don’t know where the uranium is nor how enhanced it is.

It doesn’t take a nuclear weapon to kill thousands of Americans or cause harm to many Americans on American soil or around the globe.

And we have definitely pissed them off.
 
mike2810 said:
JD Vance (VP) has said the US is not at war with Iran. We are at war with Iran's nuclear program.
I find that interesting statement. Not sure how one can be at war with a program without being at war with the Iran and its people.

www.nbcnews.com

Vance says U.S. 'not at war with Iran, we're at war with Iran's nuclear program'

President Donald Trump said Saturday night that the U.S. had dropped bombs on three Iranian nuclear sites, the first time the U.S. has directly attacked Iran.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
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its the weapons kill people theory. You know, the exact reverse of the gun lobby and their theory that guns don't kill people, people do.
 
OpportunityCost said:
So, have you ever thought about why people quit replying to you?
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Follow the conversation, the argument was that republicans have been using lies to justify wars. The counter from @CLAX1911 was that democrats started wars, too. Well it was nice of you to list them, if you insist we can go through them:

OpportunityCost said:
WW1 WW2 Korean War Vietnam War Serbian/Bosnian War
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- WW1: so long ago that I’d argue the R/D distinction isn’t meaningful

- WW2: do you really think the democratic president was a lying warmonger for entering after Pearl Harbor?

- Korean War: okay, Truman (D) got us into it. Did he lie, though?

- Vietnam War: Eisenhower (R) got us involved. JFK (D) and LBJ (D) escalated, Nixon (R) dragged it out. Overall, mixed at best.

- Serbian/Bosnian War: Lift and strike was proposed by HW Bush (R), though Clinton (D) did bring us in, it was a bit bipartisan and, notably, there was a genuine ethnic cleansing, a bonafide genocide, going on.

So now we see, again, the same strategy used that we saw in Iraq. We can’t help Ukraine because Russia has nukes, but we can bomb Iran because Iran has nukes. It’s all bullshit, dude. They’re playing us for fools.
 
What if...? said:
Have you ever looked up the map of “Eretz Israel”?
The original Israeli declaration of statehood used that term.
It includes dirt that belonged to all of the countries that attacked Israel.
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The land of Israel means the former territory of the kingdoms of Judah and Israel.
 
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