I will premise this by saying I have never been a Trump supporter or voter, I supported both impeachment probes against him, and believe there was a credible case to find him guilty in a Senate trial with the case made from the second impeachment. That said, I have trouble seeing how DA Bragg can turn the misdemeanor of Trump falsifying business records into a felony.
The charges seem to hinge on the assertion that Trump's falsifying of business records (recording repayment for his lawyer paying the hush money as "legal fees") rises to a felony because it was done to cover up another felony. That other felony allegedly being that the hush money as an illegal campaign contribution. The problem seems to be that the case for the hush money being a campaign contribution really can't be made.
There's a good piece on this in today's WSJ (sorry, paywall) but I'll try to post the gist of it here. There is an objective standard for what is a campaign contribution under Federal law and it is not merely a payment or service that helps a candidate's chances. It has to be an expense that both helps the candidate and can reasonably be determined an expense that would never be made but for being a candidate. Brag's problem is described as follows: (emphasis added):
Source:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-...ecords-daniels-bdb5942c?mod=opinion_lead_pos5
The article goes on to give the example of a candidate wanting to look good and purchasing a $4,000 suit for a televised debate. The candidate cannot use campaign funds for such a purpose even though it can be reasonably argued they would never purchase such expensive clothing but for their desire to help their campaign. It's presumed the candidate would buy clothes whether they're a candidate or not.
Bragg must make the case that Trump would
never have paid Daniels to keep quiet but for the campaign, but there are other perfectly valid reasons why Trump might want to keep a relationship with a porn star quiet that have nothing to do with his run for President, starting with this wife.
There's also the catch-22 Bragg is now arguing: he's claiming the Trump Organization made an illegal campaign contribution
for something that could never be classified as a campaign contribution under federal campaign finance law.
IMO, Trump has not committed a felony here.