• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Trump claims 'billions of dollars are pouring into the coffers of the USA' because of his tariffs, b

This has nothing to do with whether tariffs on Chinese goods have been passed on to American consumers.
The Newsweek article claims just that.

And the Fortune article shows the layoffs that are occurring, as a result of only being able to raise prices so high.

Both (raising prices and less profits) are occurring. They are not exclusive. The there's hurt all around.
 
Hehe...too bad this is an anonymous debate forum, otherwise I'd send you a scan of the invoice I'm holding in my hands right now, that clearly shows an itemized line for the surcharge, giving "New American tariffs" as the description.

You don't need numbers. Just use your common sense for a sec. What kind of company does not pass incremental costs onto their consumers? When gas prices went crazy a few years ago, we saw our grocery bills go through the roof? Was that because pineapples were suddenly, by some kind of coincidence, worth more? No, the carriers were charging more to ship, because they had to cover increased fuel costs - the carrier did not eat that cost. Then the grocery stores raised the price of their produce - they did not eat that cost. Who paid it? We did. It's one of the most basic elements of making a profit - you must charge more than the cost of producing said product.

We talked about this plenty of times before....and you always seem to like to call me an idiot. Yet exactly what I said would happen is happening. Not because I'm some kind of financial wizard...you don't need to be. Just a bit of basic business understanding extrapolated to a much larger level.

Are you an American consumer?

If not, I'm not interested in your invoice.
 
Hehe...too bad this is an anonymous debate forum, otherwise I'd send you a scan of the invoice I'm holding in my hands right now, that clearly shows an itemized line for the surcharge, giving "New American tariffs" as the description.

You don't need numbers. Just use your common sense for a sec. What kind of company does not pass incremental costs onto their consumers?
While I'm not an expert, a tariff is just another externality -- albeit one that hits imports harder than domestic goods. It depends on the size of the costs, how much it impacts the bottom line, and whether the company can take the hit.

Let's say that an imported truck costs $30,000 and is hit with a steel tariff that increases the cost by 2%. The company might absorb some of the costs, and pass some of it on, or find a way to remove $600 worth of options from next year's model. The company has more latitude because it's a relatively small change. If the company is doing well overall, it can afford the price change. If the company is already having a hard time, it's screwed -- because it might not be able to handle either the lost profits if they absorb the costs, or the lost sales when prices go up.

The following year, the government puts a 25% tariff on all imported trucks. I'm pretty sure no company can absorb that hit, so the vast majority of the cost will be passed on to the consumer.

We should note that tariffs don't make domestic goods cheaper. In some cases, it can make domestic offerings more expensive! For example, China was dumping cheap steel on international markets for years, and American steel companies complained about it. Obama slapped tariffs that were 250% to 522% on that steel. What happened? The Chinese steel got more expensive in the US -- and US steel companies raised their prices, because they could do so and still undercut the Chinese offerings. Chinese companies did an end-run around the tariffs by routing them through Vietnam for years (until they got caught, and nailed Vietnamese steel with a 500% tariff). Cheap Chinese steel was still available outside the US, so US steel exports went nowhere. Since steel was more expensive in the US, some of the costs were passed on to consumers; since the steel industry is heavily automated, few American steel jobs were preserved.
 
Show me the numbers.


So you want to know how much Americans are currently pay in tariffs? Okay then, here's an example:

Start with a shoe that costs $25 to make in China. Add the average 11 percent footwear tariff when it hits U.S. shores, and now it costs $27.75. A typical retail markup is anywhere from three to five times the cost of the shoe. Using the low-end retail multiplier of three, and that shoe now sells in a retail store for $83.25. Which means $8.25 ($2.75 in tariff on the $25 cost multiplied by three) of that $83.25 price tag was a tariff, paid by the consumer.

What if there's a further 25 percent tariff levied on that shoe on top of what exists from the 1930 tariff?

The $25 shoe with a 36 percent tariff has a base cost of $34. Taking the retail multiplier of three times, and now the retail price tag is $102, with $27 of that price a tariff ultimately paid by the consumer.
 
Are you an American consumer?

If not, I'm not interested in your invoice.

lol...really, Mycroft? Wow...usually you don't cop out so hard. I almost feel bad for you. How embarrassing.

The two plants I oversee is an American plants (how does that grab ya, btw...haha...). If you think that we won't pass that along as a surcharge to our customer, which, in turn, the car company we manufacture for won't pass that cost onto the consumer, well...hehe...you ought to give up debating right this second, because clearly you don't have the first clue WTF you are talking about. I suspect you do, though...but your partisanship simply won't allow you. Either way I feel sorry for you...
 
While I'm not an expert, a tariff is just another externality -- albeit one that hits imports harder than domestic goods. It depends on the size of the costs, how much it impacts the bottom line, and whether the company can take the hit.

Let's say that an imported truck costs $30,000 and is hit with a steel tariff that increases the cost by 2%. The company might absorb some of the costs, and pass some of it on, or find a way to remove $600 worth of options from next year's model. The company has more latitude because it's a relatively small change. If the company is doing well overall, it can afford the price change. If the company is already having a hard time, it's screwed -- because it might not be able to handle either the lost profits if they absorb the costs, or the lost sales when prices go up.

The following year, the government puts a 25% tariff on all imported trucks. I'm pretty sure no company can absorb that hit, so the vast majority of the cost will be passed on to the consumer.

We should note that tariffs don't make domestic goods cheaper. In some cases, it can make domestic offerings more expensive! For example, China was dumping cheap steel on international markets for years, and American steel companies complained about it. Obama slapped tariffs that were 250% to 522% on that steel. What happened? The Chinese steel got more expensive in the US -- and US steel companies raised their prices, because they could do so and still undercut the Chinese offerings. Chinese companies did an end-run around the tariffs by routing them through Vietnam for years (until they got caught, and nailed Vietnamese steel with a 500% tariff). Cheap Chinese steel was still available outside the US, so US steel exports went nowhere. Since steel was more expensive in the US, some of the costs were passed on to consumers; since the steel industry is heavily automated, few American steel jobs were preserved.


Yes. And when you're discussing manufacturing, you also have to factor in profit margin. The average profit the big American car manufacturers make sits around 6%. That's it. So, applying a 25% raw material cost on two of the vehicle's primary raw materials absolutely, 100% necessitates either massive government subsidy (which Trump supports should denounce as socialism) or increased consumer cost. Or, the company goes out of business. And, if there's not room for that price increase, we see things like Ford and GM no longer making their cheaper products (cars). Oh, they can talk market trends all they like, but if you look around, I'm sure you'll still see plenty of sedans on the highways...lol....
 
So you want to know how much Americans are currently pay in tariffs? Okay then, here's an example:

Start with a shoe that costs $25 to make in China. Add the average 11 percent footwear tariff when it hits U.S. shores, and now it costs $27.75. A typical retail markup is anywhere from three to five times the cost of the shoe. Using the low-end retail multiplier of three, and that shoe now sells in a retail store for $83.25. Which means $8.25 ($2.75 in tariff on the $25 cost multiplied by three) of that $83.25 price tag was a tariff, paid by the consumer.

What if there's a further 25 percent tariff levied on that shoe on top of what exists from the 1930 tariff?

The $25 shoe with a 36 percent tariff has a base cost of $34. Taking the retail multiplier of three times, and now the retail price tag is $102, with $27 of that price a tariff ultimately paid by the consumer.

Can you say, for a fact, that your hypothetical shoe has increased in price? Has it increased because of the hypothetical tariff on shoes?

If so...show me the numbers. You know...the facts. Not your hypothetical nonsense.
 
lol...really, Mycroft? Wow...usually you don't cop out so hard. I almost feel bad for you. How embarrassing.

The two plants I oversee is an American plants (how does that grab ya, btw...haha...). If you think that we won't pass that along as a surcharge to our customer, which, in turn, the car company we manufacture for won't pass that cost onto the consumer, well...hehe...you ought to give up debating right this second, because clearly you don't have the first clue WTF you are talking about. I suspect you do, though...but your partisanship simply won't allow you. Either way I feel sorry for you...

yawn...

I keep asking for numbers. You keep blathering.
 
Whether you are wrong or not depends on if US consumers are indeed picking up the cost. Have prices for Chinese goods that are affected by the tariffs being passed on?

The answer is yes, but it's incomplete. Like any tax on a corporation, and a tariff operates as a tax, the 'incidence' will fall on owners/investors, employees, and/or customers, and the amount paid by each of those interests....depends.

What's not in question is that someone in those groups is/are paying the tax. Maybe if the corporation is foreign owned, the tax isn't being paid by "Americans" but investors in China or whatever, but that's not going to be typical.

Furthermore, since the tax is direct and on the cost of inputs, we can assume that over time the tax will be imbedded in prices, i.e. raise prices. Otherwise we have to assume that corporations for some reason, all of them subject to this input tax, will voluntarily accept lower profits, indefinitely, which seems....unlikely.
 
The answer is yes, but it's incomplete. Like any tax on a corporation, and a tariff operates as a tax, the 'incidence' will fall on owners/investors, employees, and/or customers, and the amount paid by each of those interests....depends.

What's not in question is that someone in those groups is/are paying the tax. Maybe if the corporation is foreign owned, the tax isn't being paid by "Americans" but investors in China or whatever, but that's not going to be typical.

Furthermore, since the tax is direct and on the cost of inputs, we can assume that over time the tax will be imbedded in prices, i.e. raise prices. Otherwise we have to assume that corporations for some reason, all of them subject to this input tax, will voluntarily accept lower profits, indefinitely, which seems....unlikely.

The OP stated: "China" is not being "charged" billions! Americans are being taxed billions!

So the answer is NOT necessarily yes. You are correct that "someone" is paying for the tariff. Unless you can show that the prices the American consumer is paying has, in fact, increased then it is not the Americans being "taxed billions".
 
Source: (CNBC) Trump claims 'billions of dollars are pouring into the coffers of the USA' because of his tariffs, but that's just a drop in the bucket

I've read the Tweet included in my OP article, and I've been watching Trump's video of this claim as it makes the rounds on cable. Of course the media has been calling Trump out on his claim being hyperbolic, because those "billions" are a mere pittance in terms of total revenue. And they may have a point.

But what really caught my attention, is in nearly 24 hours of my causally watching my regular cable networks (CNN, MSNBC, Fox), not one pundit has pointed-out what I believe is the greatest deception of Trump's words & Tweet:

"China" is not being "charged" billions! Americans are being taxed billions!

Am I the only one that sees this? Am I wrong, here?
Has there been a price increase for consumers?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 
No, they're eating the cost cuz they love you guys so much.... :lamo

Can confirm, from my job as a logistics analyst in the automotive industry, tariffs being charged are being recovered in the form of sur charges. Tariffs are only good if there is a competitive domestic alternative. There isn't. Have fun paying more for nothing... :shrug:
They might be eating the costs because they are still making a profit and want to maintain however much of the market they have.

Her question/comment is a fair one

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 
Source: (CNBC) Trump claims 'billions of dollars are pouring into the coffers of the USA' because of his tariffs, but that's just a drop in the bucket

I've read the Tweet included in my OP article, and I've been watching Trump's video of this claim as it makes the rounds on cable. Of course the media has been calling Trump out on his claim being hyperbolic, because those "billions" are a mere pittance in terms of total revenue. And they may have a point.

But what really caught my attention, is in nearly 24 hours of my causally watching my regular cable networks (CNN, MSNBC, Fox), not one pundit has pointed-out what I believe is the greatest deception of Trump's words & Tweet:

"China" is not being "charged" billions! Americans are being taxed billions!

Am I the only one that sees this? Am I wrong, here?
In a way you're correct. The price of imported goods in just increased to cover the tariff. Just like increasing corporate taxes - the corporation does pay that tax, it's just added into the price the consumer pays.

However, the idea behind the tariff is to convince consumers to NOT buy Chinese goods but American which creates economic activity here which creates tax income.
 
Interesting point. But remember, the profits & jobs lost are not just Chinese but American.

It seems either Americans pay more:

(Newsweek) U.S. CAR PRICES SET TO INCREASE DUE TO TRUMP'S CHINA TARIFFS, EXPERTS WARN

Or Americans and American companies lose jobs:

(Fortune) Ford Prepares for Mass Layoffs After Losing $1 Billion to Trump's Trade Tariffs, Report Says
That's absolutely another aspect to factor in if we are evaluating if the tariffs have been beneficial or not. That however isn't the question you asked. We dont know who is paying those billions without more data.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 
No, they're eating the cost cuz they love you guys so much.... :lamo

Can confirm, from my job as a logistics analyst in the automotive industry, tariffs being charged are being recovered in the form of sur charges. Tariffs are only good if there is a competitive domestic alternative. There isn't. Have fun paying more for nothing... :shrug:
I'm confused are you saying there isn't a competitive domestic alternative for cars?
 
I'm confused are you saying there isn't a competitive domestic alternative for cars?

No, I'm saying the raw materials and components that make up those cars. There simply isn't production capacity available in America at the moment, due to the fact that most of your components are brought into the assembly plants from outside of the country. And even if there was the infrastructure required to create all the components parts - the nuts, the bolds, the hvacs, the axles, the headlights, the cup holders, all the stuff that goes into your F150, the wages required to pay American workers would drive the cost of those components through the roof. I would estimate thousands of hands touch each car by the time it rolls off the assembly line...right now the majority of those hands are being paid for at a fraction of the cost involved with having the entire workforce in America.

It gets better. The only way that the big auto manufacturers, and all their sub tier supply partners, will be able to exist will be if they replace more and more of their workforce with robotics. Ford and GM discontinuing big chunks of their catalog isn't just a response to market trends. It also enables them to have fewer parts to produce, meaning fewer process to capture, meaning robotic solutions are easier to get to, and they can get way more mileage out of them. So, even if American manufacturing booms, the only way it can do so is without a human workforce, or a greatly reduced human workforce at any rate.

Of course, this might happen anyway, but increasing production costs with surcharges driven by tariffs creates a financial motivation for manufacturers to find these efficiencies, just so they can stay afloat. You guys might want to be careful what you wish for.
 
They might be eating the costs because they are still making a profit and want to maintain however much of the market they have.

Her question/comment is a fair one

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

No, respectfully, it's a nonsensical one. I'm telling you straight up, tariffs are being passed on to the customer through surcharges, I see it every day. And of course they are. Some of these component companies are working so close to cost that these tariffs would put them out of business, and there goes the cost save to the customer, which is the labour cost associated with that component. The issue is never the raw materials - everything is free in the ground, if you think about it, no matter where it is. It is the cost of extraction, and turning that material into a nut or a bolt or a steering wheel, and your payroll is a huge part of that equation.
 
The OP stated: "China" is not being "charged" billions! Americans are being taxed billions!

So the answer is NOT necessarily yes. You are correct that "someone" is paying for the tariff. Unless you can show that the prices the American consumer is paying has, in fact, increased then it is not the Americans being "taxed billions".

You moved the goal post to "consumer." The post said "Americans" which includes American consumers AND American employees AND American shareholders. The only part of the tariff not paid by Americans = [the amount of lost profits eaten by shareholders] X [the foreign share of ownership of all companies affected by the tariff].
 
In a way you're correct. The price of imported goods in just increased to cover the tariff. Just like increasing corporate taxes - the corporation does pay that tax, it's just added into the price the consumer pays.

Just FWIW, taxes on inputs are simply part of the cost of goods sold, and those costs just have to be covered. If the price of steel goes up, the prices of things made with steel eventually go up. Etc.

Income taxes are different, because they're a tax on profits, and if you take 10 competitors there will be 10 different effective income tax rates, perhaps as low as 0% to the top rate, so competitors just cannot pass them on like higher costs of materials. Plus, a profitable company can survive a 10% increase in taxes on its PROFITS. It cannot survive selling goods below costs. So the mechanism is very different, different levers.

However, the idea behind the tariff is to convince consumers to NOT buy Chinese goods but American which creates economic activity here which creates tax income.

That's true but almost surely at a higher price than pre-tariffs, because if the U.S. was the cheapest place to make the goods, that would have happened pre-tariff, so that still operates as a tax on consumers with the hopeful benefit of more workers, higher wages.
 
No, respectfully, it's a nonsensical one. I'm telling you straight up, tariffs are being passed on to the customer through surcharges, I see it every day. And of course they are. Some of these component companies are working so close to cost that these tariffs would put them out of business, and there goes the cost save to the customer, which is the labour cost associated with that component. The issue is never the raw materials - everything is free in the ground, if you think about it, no matter where it is. It is the cost of extraction, and turning that material into a nut or a bolt or a steering wheel, and your payroll is a huge part of that equation.
Ok and I will take your word for that. She didn't say that it was not happening that way. She said it depends (paraphrasing). I imagine the answer for now is that both are paying it to some extent. China has to keep their prices low enough to compete in our market. Ultimately though customers always pay for everything one way or another.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 
nope not wrong.. tariffs punishes the consumer more than the companies involved and certainly not the country involved.

As with all tax, the incident of tax falls on the business or consumer in accordance with the price elasticity of the underlying product. Hence, the tariffs to not fall necessarily on one party or the other. They usually fall on both parties, not equally and not necessarily heavier on one or the other.

One of the reasons that GM closed their plants was they could not pass the increased price in steel along to the consumers on the particular models manufactured at those plants. Those particular products were highly elastic.

That said, tariffs are taxes, but about the most inefficient type of a tax as they interfere with the free market. There are almost NO reputable economists that will tell you tariffs are a good idea from an economic perspective.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/07/31/why-tariffs-are-bad-taxes

They are used as a political chip in essential a game of economic chicken. "Chicken" is fundamentally a stupid game waged to prove the machismo of people with a small.........well, hands.

This brings us back to Trump.
 
Last edited:
He has also said Canada us stealing from you, that we are "cheaters". So, he knows how to be a school yard bully, but when ONE manufacturer plan to lose 15,000 jobs BECAUSE of the tariffs you can hardly say that the US is winning.

Chinese people complain about tariffs they get shot or re-programmed. They can stand there and takes hits for decades...the USA is already closing plants.

Mr Trump is clearly living in his own world he has created for himself where he never makes mistakes and everything always goes his way to the point of being "the greatest..."

So I'll watch what China does as so far they're winning, THEY haven't announced the loss of 15,000 jobs and I doubt they will have to,

AFAIK, he uses the same strategy when things go awry: take out whatever equity is left in a company, and then declare bankruptcy.

Does Trump seem like someone who thinks they need to change a "winning" strategy?
 
Back
Top Bottom