- Joined
- Apr 18, 2013
- Messages
- 94,375
- Reaction score
- 82,758
- Location
- Barsoom
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Independent
1/8/19
President Donald Trump is planning a prime-time national address tonight about his border wall, or whatever he’s now calling it, and the government shutdown. Don’t expect much. We have plenty of evidence on this one: Presidential speeches rarely change minds. See, for example, this post from John Sides preceding Barack Obama’s 2009 speech to Congress on health care. As he notes, it’s not that voters all have strong opinions on policy questions; it’s that those voters most likely to tune in to such a speech are the partisans least likely to change their minds, either about the policy or the president. Going public – the strategy of trying to win support from the people at large, in the hopes that they’ll pressure their representatives to follow the president – mostly didn’t work for Ronald Reagan, didn’t work for Bill Clinton, and didn’t work for Obama. It’s even less likely to work for Trump, who is less popular now than those presidents were for most of their time in office, and who is trying to sell a policy that consistently polls badly. At best, Trump’s speech might solidify Republican support. Unfortunately for him, prime-time speeches haven’t dominated viewing options for years. When Richard Nixon or Jimmy Carter spoke to the nation, viewers were pretty much held hostage, barring the truly radical option of turning off the set. By Clinton’s time, there were plenty of other choices available; these days, many viewers won’t have any idea that the president has pre-empted normal network programming.
So if popular presidents couldn’t convince voters when they had a monopoly of the airwaves (when airwaves mattered), there’s no reason at all to think that Trump will change anything. On the other hand, there are risks. Trump will remind those opponents who tune in why they dislike him and his wall. He’ll put himself even further out on a ledge, meaning that his reputation will take a bigger hit when he eventually doesn’t get his way. Overall, speeches of this kind – addresses intended to sway public opinion about an already announced policy – just aren’t very important, even though the context here, the government shutdown and immigration policy, certainly is. That’s not to say that broadcast and cable-news producers shouldn’t think hard about how to present the statement of a president who is often aggressively wrong about the facts. They should. It’s just that whatever he says, true or false, is unlikely to change the trajectory of the shutdown or the public’s opinion of it. The networks turned down a request from Obama for a prime-time address in 2014. Trump is getting this one, but it may mean that they’ll turn him down next time. It probably won’t help that his request is premised on a fictional national-security emergency.
Trump’s big speech won’t matter
Chuck Schumer, Donald Trump, Nancy Pelosi
The Democrats have been granted equal airtime tonight to rebut Trump and debunk his on-air lies and disinformation.
Trump is getting desperate. Republicans are hearing from their constituents and are beginning to defect. Another lie filled rant from the Oval Office won’t do him any good. The facts, like most Americans, are against him.
He just announced he wont declare an emergency. It is noy desperation. It is his duty.
Sadly, Trump's speech probably won't move the needle and it will have nothing to do with the veracity of his claims, of which many will be factual. The die is cast because the well has been poisoned through our Balkanization, tribalism and identity politics. Thanks to the "resistance", the Dems' mission is to plunder Trump and everything he does by any means necessary.
Sadly, Trump's speech probably won't move the needle and it will have nothing to do with the veracity of his claims, of which many will be factual. The die is cast because the well has been poisoned through our Balkanization, tribalism and identity politics. Thanks to the "resistance", the Dems' mission is to plunder Trump and everything he does by any means necessary.
Don’t be so naive. If Trump declares a national emergency he knows Congress will immediately shut him down. It would go to SCOTUS and he’d lose. He’s desperate to turn public opinion. I seriously doubt he actually gives a s**t about border security. He’s terrified his base will turn on him if (when) he fails to deliver on his number one campaign promise.He just announced he wont declare an emergency. It is noy desperation. It is his duty.
Yeah damn those Dems for not rubber stamping a lie from Trump. :lamo
What lie? Obviously you know what Trump's going to say tonight, so do enlighten us with examples.
This "Show" is not intended to change minds, it is an attempt to keep his base from changing theirs. Expect a furtherance of the disinformation already presented by his "People" and a few new zingers to get frothing increased...probably drugs and gangs being an emergency.
Trump is getting desperate. Republicans are hearing from their constituents and are beginning to defect. Another lie filled rant from the Oval Office won’t do him any good. The facts, like most Americans, are against him.
There weren't 4,000 terrorists, there were "6" that were on the watch list. Again, LIES. Mexico will pay for the wall, 4,000 terrorists caught crossing, I didn't know anything about payments made to those women, all lies.
And by the way, if Trump is being sincere, why isn't he wording his need for National state of emergency to build wall as: I will declare a State of emergency get the wall built and due to this I will immediately open government and put federal workers back to work
Yup, a lot of grumbling going on.I think there is a good likelihood of the Senate passing a veto proof bill to reopen the Govt. by Friday. GOP Senators have bad feelings about how this shutdown will effect their re-election chances.
Trump should not trust that Democrats won't screw him with his pants on as they have since Reagan. Remember what Pelosi's daughter saying about her mother cutting off your head and you won't even know you're bleeding? That.
There weren't 4,000 terrorists, there were "6" that were on the watch list. Again, LIES. Mexico will pay for the wall, 4,000 terrorists caught crossing, I didn't know anything about payments made to those women, all lies.
No doubt that information was wrong, wrong, wrong.
I don't think it diminishes our need to build more wall system as part of tightening border security, reducing illegal crossings, reducing crime, reducing trafficking and alleviating the financial burden to Americans.
I fully support paying for the wall and look forward to recouping the savings in the short and long term.
No doubt that information was wrong, wrong, wrong. I don't think it diminishes our need to build more wall system as part of tightening border security, reducing illegal crossings, reducing crime, reducing trafficking and alleviating the financial burden to Americans.
I fully support paying for the wall and look forward to recouping the savings in the short and long term.
Trump’s big speech won’t matter
Chuck Schumer, Donald Trump, Nancy Pelosi
The Democrats have been granted equal airtime tonight to rebut Trump and debunk his on-air lies and disinformation.
Oh, this speech absolutely does matter, even though it doesn't matter about public opinion.
Trump is doing two things with this speech:
1. Giving Chuck and Nancy a chance to change their mind and support the wall or continue on with their anti-wall nonsense.
2. Making public the justification for declaring a national emergency and building the wall.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?