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Todd to Blinken: “If it’s not a cold war, what is it?” Re: China

I'm repeating, history has shown powers not that deterred. You didn't answer, it looked like you suggested economic war is worse than nuclear war?



Really? So their global programs to get power, their coziness with Putin, their genocide-level approaches to Tibet and Uyghurs, their brazen violating their agreement to seize power in Hong Kong, their aggressive building military islands to try to take the South China sea, the promises to invade Taiwan, not too concerned?
He did not say that. He said that Russia is more concerning. China depends on trade to keep their people happy. Putin depends on propaganda instead. We have far more influence over China's behavior than a country that does not care if it's people starve. China doe not have the ability to be that way.
 
He did not say that. He said that Russia is more concerning. China depends on trade to keep their people happy. Putin depends on propaganda instead. We have far more influence over China's behavior than a country that does not care if it's people starve. China doe not have the ability to be that way.
The US - and many a conflict with China will trigger Japanese, Kiwi, Aussie, Filipino and sometimes Vietnamese involvement - would obliterate Beijing's force projection capabilities in short order, too.
 
I agree. I didn't say that, the panel did. :)

But, I do agree that if China begins to supply Russia with armaments that things will escalate. And it may well suck our European allies into sanctions on China, worsening their relationships.

From China's standpoint, I can see why they think this is unfair. After all, we are giving Ukraine weapons and selling weapons to Taiwan.

Apologies for implying it was your comment.

I would argue that the US and EU nations are really all that aligned in terms of dealing with energy from Russia or products from China, there seems to be plenty of disconnect on how to align other nations like China against Russia (or anyone else for that matter.)
 
It's the classic conflict. If you look at China and the US as equal, it's unfair, unequal, discriminatory. Imagine if China was doing in Taiwan, which we agree is part of China, what we did for years in Cuba, with assassination and assassination attempts, sabotage, guerilla warfare, and a covert invasion, who is more clearly another country.

But if you look at the US supporting freedom and China supporting tyranny, some differences appear more justified. Where the US should win because we're in the right', not just for the sake of preferring 'our side'.

But that doesn't work well in rules and laws and diplomacy. Negotiations don't do much when they're based on 'one side is the good guys, so they should get more'. Yet China is a tyrannical power.

In the cold war, we got away with murder with covert operations to address this. Things have changed, and it's hard to see how this doesn't lead to a major and global conflict. If China, India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia unite on 'one side' against the US and Europe, who might join each side? How would it go, likely an economic war with regional conflicts like Ukraine and Taiwan?


I only question one thing, India joining China and Russia.

More likely Pakistan would join those guys, India has too many allies from the Commonwealth, who would naturally side with the US, Canada and Britain.
 
I only question one thing, India joining China and Russia.

More likely Pakistan would join those guys, India has too many allies from the Commonwealth, who would naturally side with the US, Canada and Britain.
India is a fully signed up Strategic Partner with the United States.

India has established two new and large bases in the Andaman islands at the north end of the Malacca Strait. Washingon Strategic Partner New Deli now has a large naval base in the Andamans and a large air force base right there at Malacca that also covers the Bay of Bengal where Beijing is trying to establish energy supply ports and overland routes beginning in Myanmar.

The US-India Strategic Partnership enables the USA access to all India armed forces bases to include for any operation against a third country. All of this with India came after the grabby Xi Jin Pingpong said "the Indian Ocean is not Indian." India disagrees, obviously and has taken action to enforce its disagreement if necessary. The Brics have fallen if you don't know it -- remember the Brics? -- shattered.

Vietnam reconstructed its naval base at Cam Ranh Bay to accommodate aircraft carriers of the US, UK, France, India and NOT China. VN has bought six new Russian Kilo Klass subs that have the Klub missiles that can reach Beijing. The ten South China Sea nations of ASEAN that since the 1950s had been an economic and cultural association only voted two years ago to include a military alliance because of China. ASEAN nations are prospering countries several of which are democracies of one kind or another and they're not going to take China any more and its thousand year bullying.
 
Imagine if China was doing in Taiwan, which we agree is part of China,
In 2020 the Taiwan legislature dissolved the country's claim over the mainland China. The government issued a new passport that says TAIWAN in large letters instead.

Taiwan does not claim the mainland any more. It is Beijing now and only that claims the other too. So there's no more 'One China, Two Systems.' Not since CCP DictatorTyrants in Beijing assassinated democracy in Hong Kong.

The governing Democratic Progressive Party of Pres. Tsai Ing-wen never accepted the KMT suckup to Beijing's 'One China, Two Systems" cynical fraud. It's the DPP government in the presidency and control of the legislature that has dismissed any and all claims the Republic of China had to possessing or governing the mainland China.

Taiwan is Taiwan, not China.
 
I'm repeating, history has shown powers not that deterred. You didn't answer, it looked like you suggested economic war is worse than nuclear war?
I thought I answered this pretty clearly by saying "no". What you haven't expounded on is whether you think China is far more concerned about potential economic actions against it, which are far more of a threat right now than nuclear war.

Really? So their global programs to get power, their coziness with Putin, their genocide-level approaches to Tibet and Uyghurs, their brazen violating their agreement to seize power in Hong Kong, their aggressive building military islands to try to take the South China sea, the promises to invade Taiwan, not too concerned?
There's no question China's been building its sphere of influence over the past 30 years or so, through both its investments and use of soft power to expand its culture abroad. They offered to fill a void left by the US or in direct competition to US options in terms of developing local economies. What any of that has not resulted in is coup d'etats in the same way US involvement in the developing world has led to. Don't get me wrong, I am no fan of China's government or any of its internal actions, but their expansion in this area is still fairly young compared to how long the US has been doing this. We're already seeing pushback in Africa and Latin America to Chinese investment out of the very same concerns they have for US involvement.

As for the concern, I thought I explained the big difference why I am not as concerned about China as I am about Russia. China has a lot more to lose if it is forced to decouple from US and EU markets, and there will be a lot of pain for the latter as well. Russia isn't tethered to those economies in nowhere near the scale China is, so Russia might get more desperate and lash out as it gets continually backed into a corner. China is not in a corner right now, so it will be a more rational actor because there is more at stake. I would be more concerned about a nuclear close call with Russia than I would with China.
 
I thought I answered this pretty clearly by saying "no". What you haven't expounded on is whether you think China is far more concerned about potential economic actions against it, which are far more of a threat right now than nuclear war.

OK, I see what you are asking. Yes, I suspect they are. But I think they're more concerned about gaining power.

I would be more concerned about a nuclear close call with Russia than I would with China.

I sure agree about that. It's Russia who has repeatedly threatened and is by far more the wildcard.
 
Kind of a precarious position we find ourselves in with Communist Red China.

On the one hand they are a most favored trading partner. We are dependent on their manufactured goods. Our corporations are deeply invested there every since they abandoned the American worker for lands of cheap labor and no regulation. Our corporations build the manufacturing plants, trained the Chinese workers and gave the Chinese government the proprietary manufacturing information all for access to cheap labor and no regulation.

On the other hand with the profits from our manufacturing and trade they are building a military to challenge ours. Seems our relationship is going sour. We are inserting our military into the region rapidly. We are renewing relationships with old allies.
Rebuilding military bases long abandoned.

So who wins. The industrialist and wall street or the military/industrial complex.
 
CCP Boyz in Beijing recently reviewed their No First Use policy.

They decided to keep it.

Still, The Boyz are on a ten year project of increasing their nuclear arsenal, probably review it again later.
 
Kind of a precarious position we find ourselves in with Communist Red China.

So who wins. The industrialist and wall street or the military/industrial complex.
Russia's MIC is not so good any more since the USSR failed -- money is hard to come by. Putin for instance could not mass produce the high tech T-14 Armada Main Battle Tank because of the huge expense. The Russia MIC sells tons of weapons but they're mostly small arms such as the Kalashnikov AK-47, plus some artillery and fighter jets and so on. India though told Putin he could keep his hyped up Su-57 flying junk that they argued over endlessly.

US & UK sell high tech big money weapons systems and technologies (export models). While for instance the US sells the F-35 to most trusted allies only, such as UK, Norway and some other NATO forces, to include non-NATO ally Japan, it doesn't sell the F-22 Raptor to anyone. Japan is authorized the most F-35s at 171. Germany's MIC is a big arms dealer of various kind with the Leopard MBT a big seller -- Singapore's ace armed forces for instance have the Leopard and the F-35.

The Chinese MIC is huge and enormous. It's churning out ships and missiles daily. Each day the CCP MIC produces bunches of missiles. Beijing has transferred their human wave approach to a wall of missiles approach. Beijing is a small arms seller too, primarily. The CCP MIC is a cash cow for 'em.

All of which and more shows your post has blinders on it.
 
Russia's MIC is not so good any more since the USSR failed -- money is hard to come by. Putin for instance could not mass produce the high tech T-14 Armada Main Battle Tank because of the huge expense. The Russia MIC sells tons of weapons but they're mostly small arms such as the Kalashnikov AK-47, plus some artillery and fighter jets and so on. India though told Putin he could keep his hyped up Su-57 flying junk that they argued over endlessly.

US & UK sell high tech big money weapons systems and technologies (export models). While for instance the US sells the F-35 to most trusted allies only, such as UK, Norway and some other NATO forces, to include non-NATO ally Japan, it doesn't sell the F-22 Raptor to anyone. Japan is authorized the most F-35s at 171. Germany's MIC is a big arms dealer of various kind with the Leopard MBT a big seller -- Singapore's ace armed forces for instance have the Leopard and the F-35.

The Chinese MIC is huge and enormous. It's churning out ships and missiles daily. Each day the CCP MIC produces bunches of missiles. Beijing has transferred their human wave approach to a wall of missiles approach. Beijing is a small arms seller too, primarily. The CCP MIC is a cash cow for 'em.

All of which and more shows your post has blinders on it.

I think you missed the point.

For the U.S. a war with China would really upset all those American manufacturers so deeply invested there. Upset those wall street investors. The American consumer loses all those manufactured goods.

Will our economic interest override the military war hawks. In other words would we go to war with China. I don't think so.
 
would we go to war with China. I don't think so.

What would war with China look like? Nuclear war makes no sense. Either invading the other makes no sense. What does that leave, sea battles? Regional proxy wars? Economic, electronic warfare? Covert operations? I think Taiwan is the biggest problem in the world waiting, as the US has committed to protect it and China to take control.
 
It's a balloon war.
 
China has unlocked the "prosperity genie" with its people and there is no putting that back in its bottle. They are now the worlds #1 consumer economy and that requires trade. Russia has a history of shunning trade and depriving its people that China can only dream of emulating. Authoritarian or not China has shown that it is vulnerable to unrest and their ending of the zero tolerance covid policy is an example.

Dude, China killed fifteen million of their own people minimum in the Great Leap Forward. There isn’t a country on earth which has more experience with suffering and deprivation than China.

Furthermore, the idea that China doesn’t have a long history of shunning trade is ****ing hilarious.
 
I only question one thing, India joining China and Russia.

More likely Pakistan would join those guys, India has too many allies from the Commonwealth, who would naturally side with the US, Canada and Britain.

India has incredibly close ties with Russia and has pretty much since independence.

There also isn’t a whole lot of warm fuzzy feelings about British colonial rule in India. Hate to burst your bubble.
 
I think you missed the point.

For the U.S. a war with China would really upset all those American manufacturers so deeply invested there. Upset those wall street investors. The American consumer loses all those manufactured goods.

Will our economic interest override the military war hawks. In other words would we go to war with China. I don't think so.
I know what you believe and I know you are wrong -- dead wrong. Because neither is the United States nor the West going to surrender to the CCP DictatorTyrants in Beijing. Not for any reason. And economic rule means political and cultural rule for certain. Western corporations do not want the Chinese Communist Party controlling them and the global economy -- the thought is anathema to Western corporations. Western corporations will press any button they need to press to stop this.

Again, nothing is a greater priority to the CCP and their population than is Taiwan. I believe you do get this as the supreme matter in Beijing and across the PRC -- for three score years and ten, since 1949.

Either way, you need to start working on this: Tokyo said in 2021 it will fight with Taiwan to repel and defeat any PLA attack against Taiwan. Japan will fight alongside Taiwan because the Japanese know -- with absolute certainty -- their country will be next to fall. It is existential, it trumps everything.

Biden and the joint chiefs know that if the US doesn't fight to defend Taiwan all US allies of the region would be subsumed by the CCP DictatorTyrants in Beijing. This would occur for certain. During the Cold War no important country said independently it would fight Soviet Russia under any circumstance or scenario, as Japan says it will do against China; then Biden said the US will defend Taiwan and he means it. Japan and US agree this is existential. It means everything. This reality is what you are missing.

So you need to recognize war is superior to trade in relations among nations. History is full of this reality that war occurs regardless of trade and despite trade. When it becomes existential the war will occur trade notwithstanding. Because of Xi Jinping and the CCP DictatorTyrants in Beijing we only get closer to it. It's being said for several years that the only thing worse than a rising China is a falling China which is where we are now.
 
What would war with China look like? Nuclear war makes no sense. Either invading the other makes no sense. What does that leave, sea battles? Regional proxy wars? Economic, electronic warfare? Covert operations? I think Taiwan is the biggest problem in the world waiting, as the US has committed to protect it and China to take control.
Getting back to the OP, in a cold war there are no invasions or sea battles. Proxy wars, economic measures, electronic warfare, and covert operations - yes. Except for proxy wars those things are taking place now. And if the Chinese begin supplying Russia with weapons as we are supplying Ukraine - then we have a proxy war.
 
Getting back to the OP, in a cold war there are no invasions or sea battles. Proxy wars, economic measures, electronic warfare, and covert operations - yes. Except for proxy wars those things are taking place now. And if the Chinese begin supplying Russia with weapons as we are supplying Ukraine - then we have a proxy war.
I was commenting on "war with China", not cold war, though. And as far as having things now, they are far milder versions than we'd have in a war, or even had in the cold war. For example, (covert) Operation Mongoose in Cuba was massive with assassinations, bombings, sabotage and more. That's not what we're doing in China.
 
I know what you believe and I know you are wrong -- dead wrong. Because neither is the United States nor the West going to surrender to the CCP DictatorTyrants in Beijing. Not for any reason. And economic rule means political and cultural rule for certain. Western corporations do not want the Chinese Communist Party controlling them and the global economy -- the thought is anathema to Western corporations. Western corporations will press any button they need to press to stop this.

Again, nothing is a greater priority to the CCP and their population than is Taiwan. I believe you do get this as the supreme matter in Beijing and across the PRC -- for three score years and ten, since 1949.

Either way, you need to start working on this: Tokyo said in 2021 it will fight with Taiwan to repel and defeat any PLA attack against Taiwan. Japan will fight alongside Taiwan because the Japanese know -- with absolute certainty -- their country will be next to fall. It is existential, it trumps everything.

Biden and the joint chiefs know that if the US doesn't fight to defend Taiwan all US allies of the region would be subsumed by the CCP DictatorTyrants in Beijing. This would occur for certain. During the Cold War no important country said independently it would fight Soviet Russia under any circumstance or scenario, as Japan says it will do against China; then Biden said the US will defend Taiwan and he means it. Japan and US agree this is existential. It means everything. This reality is what you are missing.

So you need to recognize war is superior to trade in relations among nations. History is full of this reality that war occurs regardless of trade and despite trade. When it becomes existential the war will occur trade notwithstanding. Because of Xi Jinping and the CCP DictatorTyrants in Beijing we only get closer to it. It's being said for several years that the only thing worse than a rising China is a falling China which is where we are now.
You have posted 8 times on this thread and received one response. Most of your post have snarky comments about the other posters. You obviously feel strongly about this subject and are knowledgeable. If you want discussion, however, I suggest you tone it down a bit. Jus' saying.
 
Dude, China killed fifteen million of their own people minimum in the Great Leap Forward. There isn’t a country on earth which has more experience with suffering and deprivation than China.

Furthermore, the idea that China doesn’t have a long history of shunning trade is ****ing hilarious.
Dude, that is ancient history and China is a very different country than under Mao. You don't see that? The Govt. abandoned their zero tolerance policy for covid because of pressure from the people. They will have a rebellion on their hands if everyone is put out of work by trade sanctions. We can find other options for goods, there are other asian countries that are stepping up their exports and competing with China.
 
Dude, that is ancient history and China is a very different country than under Mao. You don't see that? The Govt. abandoned their zero tolerance policy for covid because of pressure from the people. They will have a rebellion on their hands if everyone is put out of work by trade sanctions. We can find other options for goods, there are other asian countries that are stepping up their exports and competing with China.

Not to the Chinese it isn’t.

Gee, if it were that easy we’d have cut ties with China years ago 😂
 
Not to the Chinese it isn’t.

Gee, if it were that easy we’d have cut ties with China years ago 😂
No we would not. Dependence on trade is a very good way to gain power on a adversary. That fact that makes China far more vulnerable to sanctions. Xi would love to sell Russia lethal armaments but he will not risk sanctions to do it.
 
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