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This morning's polls are out (538 and RCP links included)

ReubenSherr said:
Rasmussen is conservative. I assume everyone knows that lol, and takes the data with a grain of salt.

Meanwhile, an Insider Advantage poll just out on RCP has Trump up 2 in Pennsylvania. Bringing Biden's margin down to +4.9.

www.realclearpolitics.com

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com www.realclearpolitics.com
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It's a strange poll conducted on behalf of the Center for American Greatness. Cannot find their methodology, but it's very strange to only have 8% of all respondents be independent.
 
Ikari said:
Just over a week now and then we'll know for sure.
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Well, hopefully. I think there is a very good chance Biden takes Florida, and essentially the race is over. Biden could actually lose Pennsylvania and still top 270, but Trump cannot win without it.
 
Not sure why we need another polling aggregate. Sure, it's my fault for choosing to follow everybody from 538 on Twitter, but I'm shitting polls right now.
 
ReubenSherr said:
The only new swing state polls on RCP are from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, which lol is one of the most liberal universities in the country. They didn’t add the new Trafalgar polls.

Personally, I’m going to wait until midweek to make a judgment.

Rasmussen, FWIW, has Trump’s approval up to 52%.
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So, you make the leap that a poll is liberally biased because you think that the university is liberal.

You are really falling apart Reuben. Your handlers aren't paying you for dumb posts.
 
ReubenSherr said:
At this point, I have no clue which polls are correct and which are incorrect.

Rasmussen has Trump’s approval at an all time high as of this morning. IBD shows a slight downward trend with Biden gaining.

Trafalgar released three polls yesterday showing Trump with solid leads in Michigan, Arizona, and Florida, but Silver removed them from 538, and RCP hasn’t added them.

Someone here is polling correctly, and someone is polling incorrectly, in terms of this election cycle.
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It’s not very common that Silver would remove a poll but he analyzed the Trafalgar polls and it looks to him like Trafalgar must have messed something up. It wasn’t that he didn’t like the results it was that the breakdown makes no sense. Here’s his comment “Trump is not going to win 30% of the Democratic vote in Michigan. Biden is not going to win 25% of Republicans. Trump is not going to win independents by 32 points.” I’d have to agree that it sounds pretty odd. Either way it’s Silver’s call as to whether he wants to include them in his average. Maybe RCP saw the same problem? It looks like Trafalgar’s NC poll is still there at 538.
15D0D49E-DB7A-4776-A543-A95EC5BBCF1C.jpeg
 
ReubenSherr said:
The only new swing state polls on RCP are from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, which lol is one of the most liberal universities in the country. They didn’t add the new Trafalgar polls.

Personally, I’m going to wait until midweek to make a judgment.

Rasmussen, FWIW, has Trump’s approval up to 52%.
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Trafalgar and Rasmussen? What about Breitbart polling? I heard somewhere that Alex Jones is doing polling too. Why not just post polls from every unreliable, completely right wing biased polling group?
 
beefheart said:
So, you make the leap that a poll is liberally biased because you think that the any university is liberal.

You are really falling apart Reuben. Your handlers aren't paying you for dumb posts.
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With that modification, I completely agree.
 
ReubenSherr said:
The only new swing state polls on RCP are from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, which lol is one of the most liberal universities in the country. They didn’t add the new Trafalgar polls.

Personally, I’m going to wait until midweek to make a judgment.

Rasmussen, FWIW, has Trump’s approval up to 52%.
Click to expand...
It's not worth much. How they get to fifty two percent I do not understand.
 
Opinion polls only matter if they are less than a week old and have error margins under 3 percent unless there is a consistent pattern with one candidate being way ahead of the other in the same state or district. For example I will trust any poll that shows Donald Trump has West Virginia in the bag, but not one showing he is leading in Texas.
 
Found this interesting. Yahoo news put up current polling numbers and then put where 2016 Election Day final results compare to them. I didn’t dig to see where they got current numbers, just thought it was cool

www.yahoo.com

2020 Elections Center | Yahoo

Get the latest updates on the 2020 Elections. Stay informed with fast facts, candidate updates, and key takeaways on the issues, all in one place.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
 
NWRatCon said:
Well, hopefully. I think there is a very good chance Biden takes Florida, and essentially the race is over. Biden could actually lose Pennsylvania and still top 270, but Trump cannot win without it.
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The rattlesnake must win all of the states he won last time (which is not going to happen) if he loses Florida. Also, you are not allowed to sleep on Texas. It is a swing state this year.
 
RaleBulgarian said:
Trafalgar and Rasmussen? What about Breitbart polling? I heard somewhere that Alex Jones is doing polling too. Why not just post polls from every unreliable, completely right wing biased polling group?
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It's extremely amusing how liberals consider their own liberal sources "neutral," and conservative sources "crazy right wing".

We have to deal with CNN, CNBC, NBC, Quinnipiac, ABC, The New York Times, NPR, University of Wisconsin-Madison, the list goes on and on...

You all can deal with Rasmussen and Trafalgar.
 
George50 said:
It’s not very common that Silver would remove a poll but he analyzed the Trafalgar polls and it looks to him like Trafalgar must have messed something up. It wasn’t that he didn’t like the results it was that the breakdown makes no sense. Here’s his comment “Trump is not going to win 30% of the Democratic vote in Michigan. Biden is not going to win 25% of Republicans. Trump is not going to win independents by 32 points.” I’d have to agree that it sounds pretty odd. Either way it’s Silver’s call as to whether he wants to include them in his average. Maybe RCP saw the same problem? It looks like Trafalgar’s NC poll is still there at 538.
View attachment 67301471
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Someone literally posted fake Trafalgar polls, that's why Silver removed them.

I can't believe that this is where our country is right now.
 
Blue Donkey said:
The rattlesnake must win all of the states he won last time (which is not going to happen) if he loses Florida. Also, you are not allowed to sleep on Texas. It is a swing state this year.
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Texas is still a lost cause for us this cycle IMO, but every new election it gets more in play.
 
beefheart said:
So, you make the leap that a poll is liberally biased because you think that the university is liberal.
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A "leap" lol?

I'll leave it there.

You constantly whine about Rasmussen and Trafalgar.

Deal with it.
 
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