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This morning's polls are out (538 and RCP links included)

Man0in3Black

Man0in3Black

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Not much changed here, Biden still leading overall and the swing states that Trump MUST win to have any chance

www.realclearpolitics.com

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls

Latest Polls
www.realclearpolitics.com www.realclearpolitics.com

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Latest Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
 
The only new swing state polls on RCP are from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, which lol is one of the most liberal universities in the country. They didn’t add the new Trafalgar polls.

Personally, I’m going to wait until midweek to make a judgment.

Rasmussen, FWIW, has Trump’s approval up to 52%.
 
ReubenSherr said:
The only new swing state polls on RCP are from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, which lol is one of the most liberal universities in the country. They didn’t add the new Trafalgar polls.

Personally, I’m going to wait until midweek to make a judgment.

Rasmussen, FWIW, has Trump’s approval up to 52%.
Click to expand...

What are your thoughts on IBD? You used to post about it when it showed 2.5 lead for Biden and when Biden lead decreased after 1st Presidential debate.

We are sitting on +7 now with the lead expanding since 2nd Presidential debate...
 
Slavister said:
What are your thoughts on IBD? You used to post about it when it showed 2.5 lead for Biden and when Biden lead decreased after 1st Presidential debate.

We are sitting on +7 now with the lead expanding since 2nd Presidential debate...
Click to expand...
At this point, I have no clue which polls are correct and which are incorrect.

Rasmussen has Trump’s approval at an all time high as of this morning. IBD shows a slight downward trend with Biden gaining.

Trafalgar released three polls yesterday showing Trump with solid leads in Michigan, Arizona, and Florida, but Silver removed them from 538, and RCP hasn’t added them.

Someone here is polling correctly, and someone is polling incorrectly, in terms of this election cycle.
 
ReubenSherr said:
At this point, I have no clue which polls are correct and which are incorrect.

Rasmussen has Trump’s approval at an all time high as of this morning. IBD shows a slight downward trend with Biden gaining.

Trafalgar released three polls yesterday showing Trump with solid leads in Michigan, Arizona, and Florida, but Silver removed them from 538, and RCP hasn’t added them.

Someone here is polling correctly, and someone is polling incorrectly, in terms of this election cycle.
Click to expand...

Rasmussen does not have him an all time high. It's close but he was higher before (e.g. on Sept 18).

Regarding Silver/538 removing Trafalgar polls - are you saying they WERE on there in fact but now they are NOT? Do you have some proof? You really think RCP and 538 who had posted Trafalgar will suddenly stop without a good reason?
 
Slavister said:
Regarding Silver/538 removing Trafalgar polls - are you saying they WERE on there in fact but now they are NOT? Do you have some proof? You really think RCP and 538 who had posted Trafalgar will suddenly stop without a good reason?
Click to expand...
Yes. Silver had the Trafalgar polls posted yesterday morning, and then in the evening he tweeted that the polls were “crazy,” and removed all three from 538.

It’s documented in the Trafalgar thread, in terms of the timing.
 
Last edited:
ReubenSherr said:
Yes. Silver had the Trafalgar polls posted yesterday morning, and then in the evening he tweeted that the polls were “crazy,” and removed all three from 538.

It’s documented in the Trafalgar thread, in terms of the timing.
Click to expand...

The fake ones?

 
Rasmussen just came out with Trump +1 nationally, and RCP is down to Biden +7.9.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Rasmussen is not worth much except for its "feel good" ambiance for conservatives.
Click to expand...

I believe they are the only ones still doing daily tracking polls.
 
Slavister said:
Rasmussen does not have him an all time high. It's close but he was higher before (e.g. on Sept 18).

Regarding Silver/538 removing Trafalgar polls - are you saying they WERE on there in fact but now they are NOT? Do you have some proof? You really think RCP and 538 who had posted Trafalgar will suddenly stop without a good reason?
Click to expand...
538 rates the quality of pollsters and weights their contributions accordingly. Trafalgar has a known GOP bias which is factored in, and is generally mediocre (a "C-ish" rating). That is one of the things I like about 538 and why they tend to be quite accurate. They even keep Survey Monkey polls in ("D-" rating), but don't give them much weight. Anyone who knows anything about polling knows that all polls are "balanced/weighted" based upon the expectations of participation and known status of polled individuals, usually using some proprietary algorithm. Some are better at it than others. RCP is routinely bad, and Zogby used to be fairly reliable, but now generally resides on the dust heap (C+) - next to Trafalgar group (C-). As of this morning:

Trafalgar GroupIVR48+0.9+1.3C-R+0.9
Still there.

SurveyMonkeyOnline210+2.3+2.6D-D+5.0
Still there.

Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchIVR/online722+0.2+0.8C+R+1.5
Still there.
 
Slavister said:
What are your thoughts on IBD? You used to post about it when it showed 2.5 lead for Biden and when Biden lead decreased after 1st Presidential debate.

We are sitting on +7 now with the lead expanding since 2nd Presidential debate...
Click to expand...
He's following his Savior's lead: "That's when I like polls, when I get them in my favour I like them,” the president said. “When I get them in my favour I say 'that's great.' When they're not in my favour I don't discuss them."
A CNN instant poll found that 53 per cent of debate watchers thought Mr Biden won the debate over the president, who earned support from 39 per cent of viewers.
Then a Politico/Morning Consult flash poll released on Friday found that 54 percent of debate watchers believed Biden won the matchup, while 39 percent said Trump did.
YouGov found that Mr Biden won 54 per cent to 35 per cent against the sitting president. Also a Data for Progress progressive poll gave the win to the former vice president with 52 per cent of support over the 41 per cent going for Mr Trump.
A poll of Fox News viewers gave the win to the president, with 74 per cent of respondents saying Mr Trump won over 24 per cent for Mr Biden.
Click to expand...
Trump claims he won the second presidential debate by 89 to 11 per cent at campaign rally (Independent). Even "Alternate Reality News" didn't give him 89%.
 
ReubenSherr said:
The only new swing state polls on RCP are from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, which lol is one of the most liberal universities in the country. They didn’t add the new Trafalgar polls.

Personally, I’m going to wait until midweek to make a judgment.

Rasmussen, FWIW, has Trump’s approval up to 52%.
Click to expand...
You call UW Madison liberal and quote Rasmussen? Right...
 
ReubenSherr said:
The only new swing state polls on RCP are from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, which lol is one of the most liberal universities in the country. They didn’t add the new Trafalgar polls.

Personally, I’m going to wait until midweek to make a judgment.

Rasmussen, FWIW, has Trump’s approval up to 52%.
Click to expand...
I am going to wait till they start counting votes.
that is the only thing that matters. these polls are useless nonsense.

only thing i am concerned with is that here in Florida some people got enough votes to put minimum wage to 15 an hour.
they need 60% of the vote to approve it. Hopefully it doesn't pass.

if it does i am going to have to convince my employer for a huge raise increase so that my job is not devalued.
 
vegas giants said:
Biden up by 8 in Pennsylvania
Click to expand...
Trump up by 2 in Pennsylvania.

Biden's RCP lead in PA is now less than Hillary's was either on 10/26/16, or 8 days before the election. And this is with that ridiculous CNN poll factored in.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Trump up by 2 in Pennsylvania.

Biden's RCP lead in PA is now less than Hillary's was either on 10/26/16, or 8 days before the election. And this is with that ridiculous CNN poll factored in.
Click to expand...
Yeah biden is running away with it in Pennsylvania
 
Just over a week now and then we'll know for sure.
 
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