Things aren't looking good for Democrats in Nevada!

[Doug64]

The Democrats’ Nevada Problem

Combining the Democrats’ Hispanic Voter and Working Class Voter Problems

theliberalpatriot.substack.com

What do you get when you combine the Democrats’ Hispanic voter problem with the Democrats’ working class voter problem? Something like the Democrats’ Nevada problem.

On one level, it might seem odd that there should be a Democratic Nevada problem. Nevada is the most rapidly-diversifying state in the country—it recently became majority-minority—and should continue to be so in the future. All else equal, that should favor the Democrats and it is true that Democrats have carried the state in the last four Presidential election and currently hold the governorship and both US Senate seats.

But hidden in these facts are some troubling signs. Despite rapid diversification, the Democratic margin in Presidential elections from 2008 to 2016 declined sharply from 12.5 to 2.4 points. And in 2020, as the Democrats gained ground in the country as a whole, the Democratic margin in Nevada went from 2.4 points…..to 2.4 points. That means that—again, despite rapid diversification of the electorate—Nevada went from three-tenths of percentage more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2016 to 2 points more Republican in 2020.

Usually I focus more on Utah than Nevada, seeing how I consider myself a Utah expatriate despite living in Nevada for over two decades. (Guess where I'm headed as soon as I retire!) But Nevada is the state where I vote, so I have to pay some attention....

On my personal Red State/Blue State scale Nevada is actually Purple, but has been trending Blue rapidly--from 59% in 2016 to 48.5% in 2018 to 40% in 2020. Maybe this year the trend will turn around? Any road, the state makes an interesting case study in the Republican Party's possible transformation into a working class party, of all races.

 

[ecofarm]

it is true that Democrats have carried the state in the last four Presidential election and currently hold the governorship and both US Senate seats.

But hidden in these facts are some troubling signs.

lol

Blogs.

 

[yankintx]

The Democrats’ Nevada Problem

Combining the Democrats’ Hispanic Voter and Working Class Voter Problems

theliberalpatriot.substack.com

Usually I focus more on Utah than Nevada, seeing how I consider myself a Utah expatriate despite living in Nevada for over two decades. (Guess where I'm headed as soon as I retire!) But Nevada is the state where I vote, so I have to pay some attention....

On my personal Red State/Blue State scale Nevada is actually Purple, but has been trending Blue rapidly--from 59% in 2016 to 48.5% in 2018 to 40% in 2020. Maybe this year the trend will turn around? Any road, the state makes an interesting case study in the Republican Party's possible transformation into a working class party, of all races.

Don't you mean the uneducated class?

Trump's own words

 

[ecofarm]

I like how the margin of victory closing in a state that hasn't voted red in two decades is "trouble for democrats!" Desperate bs. "Over the past twenty years, we've lost by less and less! Those Democrats are in trouble now!"

Pa-lease. You gotta win one to start talking about them being in trouble. It's been 20 years. This is like the Dolphins talking about the Superbowl. Win a playoff game in the past 20 years before talking about that.

Being less of a loser is not evidence of becoming a winner.

 

[ecofarm]

"Well ya see, coach, 20 years ago we lost by 50. 10 years ago we lost by 20. 5 years ago we only lost by 10. Things are not looking good for them!"

Come on. They do keep winning. Every single time. Things look better for them than the team that loses every time for two decades, right? Are you telling me the long time again and again loser are who things are really looking up for?

I swear someone transcribed Dolphins radio to political bs. The guys on 560 AM wrote that shit, didn't they. "Eight years ago we almost made the play-offs!"

Losing is not winning, okay? Things do not look bad for winners. Things look bad for losers. Things look especially bad for long time consistent losers.

 

[ecofarm]

Things looks particularly horrible for long time consistent losers for whom the bottom just fell out.

But, hey, why not go make a thread claiming California is purple. **** it, it's Trump World, right? They'll believe anything.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Don't you mean the uneducated class?

Trump's own words

It’s really funny because when Trump said “I love the poorly educated” the democrats response is to say proudly they don’t love the poorly educated.

The democrats new message is “if you didn’t get born into a family rich enough to send you to elite schools, **** you, and also work more overtime, our plans to cancel student debt for the upper class aren’t going to pay for themselves”

And democrats wonder why they’re failing in the polls.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

"Well ya see, coach, 20 years ago we lost by 50. 10 years ago we lost by 20. 5 years ago we only lost by 10. Things are not looking good for them!"

Come on. They do keep winning. Every single time. Things look better for them than the team that loses every time for two decades, right? Are you telling me the long time again and again loser are who things are really looking up for?

I swear someone transcribed Dolphins radio to political bs. The guys on 560 AM wrote that shit, didn't they. "Eight years ago we almost made the play-offs!"

Losing is not winning, okay? Things do not look bad for winners. Things look bad for losers. Things look especially bad for long time consistent losers.

Lol, did Baghdad Bob help you write that?

 

[EMNofSeattle]

I like how the margin of victory closing in a state that hasn't voted red in two decades is "trouble for democrats!" Desperate bs. "Over the past twenty years, we've lost by less and less! Those Democrats are in trouble now!"

Pa-lease. You gotta win one to start talking about them being in trouble. It's been 20 years. This is like the Dolphins talking about the Superbowl. Win a playoff game in the past 20 years before talking about that.

Being less of a loser is not evidence of becoming a winner.

Two points, and Biden has cratered them Democratic Party, there’s no reason to believe that margin is going back up this election cycle. And in politics this matters greatly, because if the margin went from 12 to 2 despite the fact that conventional wisdom said the demographics were far better when they won by two, that’s a problem.

If nothing else it’s a major problem for the democrats because it means national organizations have to sink bundles of donor cash into a state just to re-elect an incumbent, money that cannot be spent elsewhere.

 

[Doug64]

lol

Blogs.

lol

Facts.

Don't you mean the uneducated class?

Trump's own words

Or we could go with Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables.”

I like how the margin of victory closing in a state that hasn't voted red in two decades is "trouble for democrats!" Desperate bs. "Over the past twenty years, we've lost by less and less! Those Democrats are in trouble now!"

As The Liberal Patriot pointed out, in 2020 Nevada was two points more Republican than the nation as a whole. That was in a year that the Democrats did well, so they still won in Nevada. The question is, what happens if that same margin holds true in a year when Democrats nationwide don’t do well? Like this year is likely to shape up to be?