When last we left our intrepid heroes and villains, the Trump electoral map showed former President Trump R-FL) with 294 electoral votes and current President Biden (D-DE) with 207 electoral votes and 37 electoral votes outstanding..
At-a-Glance: If the election was held at the end of February 2024, Trump would still win, 279-217, with 42 electoral votes outstanding.
Link: https://www.270towin.com/maps/BDdj1
New Polled States:
In-depth analysis:
Other Notes:
At-a-Glance: If the election was held at the end of February 2024, Trump would still win, 279-217, with 42 electoral votes outstanding.
Link: https://www.270towin.com/maps/BDdj1
New Polled States:
- Maryland comes online with Biden leading +17. When Kennedy is not included, he leads +21. Biden leads +15 in Maryland on 2/13/2024, +23 if Kennedy is not included.
In-depth analysis:
- Trump switches Pennsylvania back to his column with a +8 lead on 2/8/2024, and leads +5 on 2/16/2024 (+2 If Kennedy is not included). On 2/18/2024, Trump led +9, +6 if Kennedy was not included.
- On 2/27/2024, Biden switched Pennsylvania back to his column with a +1 lead on 2/27/2024 courtesy of a poll conducted by Axis Research and sponsored by the Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance (which appears to be nonpartisan).
- Trump switches Maine’s state electoral votes (2) to his side with a +6 lead on 2/14/2024.
- Michigan and Wisconsin are showing a trend that shows them being closer to +10 in the beginning of the month, and closer to even by the end of the month.
- Michigan was even on 2/25/2024 according to a League of American Workers Poll. League of American Workers is identified by 538 as a Republican organization.
Other Notes:
- Trump’s lead in Arizona weakens to +4 as of 2/1/2024, then strengthens to +8 on 2/18/2024 (+9 when Kennedy is included). Trump’s lead is back to +6 on 2/19/2024, +3 if Kennedy isn’t included. Trump leads +7 in Arizona on 2/26/2024.
- Trump leads +9 in Texas as of 2/3/2024, and +7 as of 2/8/2024, and on 2/12/2024. Also on 2/12/2024, if Kennedy is included, he leads +9. On 2/26/2024, he led +4 and that number is the exact same if you include Kennedy.
- Trump leads +7 in North Carolina as of 2/4/2014. Trump leads +3 in North Carolina as of 2/12/2024. In this case, I took the poll by the East Carolina University Center for Polling Research over Fox News because it had more registered voters polled over a shorter period of time. Trump leads +9 in North Carolina (+2 when Kennedy is not included). On 2/18/2024, he led +10, +9 if Kennedy was not included.
- Biden leads +20 in Massachusetts as of 2/6/2024
- Trump leads +18 in South Carolina as of 2/8/2024, +15 on 2/8/2024, and +17 (which becomes +19 when Kennedy is not included) on 2/11/2024, Trump leads by +14 in South Carolina as of 2/16/2024.
- Trump leads +5 in Michigan as of 2/12/2024, and +2 on 2/12/2024 if Kennedy is not included. And a Morning Consult poll in Michigan as of 2/18/2024 showed Trump leading +1, +2 if Kennedy is not included. I chose this poll over the EPIC-MRA poll released that same day because, though it showed likely voters v. Registered voters, it did not include a poll that had the other candidates. On 2/22/2024, Trump led +10. On 2/24/2024, Trump led +4 in an Emerson poll, +2 if Kennedy was not included.
- Biden leads +23 in California as of 2/13/2024, and again on 2/18/2024, but only +18 if Kennedy is included. He led +12 on 2/26/2024, but +18 if Kennedy is not included. On 2/27/2024, Biden led by +19, +21 if Kennedy is not included.
- Trump leads +9 in Iowa as of 2/13/2024, and +15 as of 2/28/2024.
- Biden leads in ME-1 (1 electoral vote) by +8 as of 2/14/2024.
- Trump leads in ME-2 (1 electoral vote) by +20 as of 2/14/2024.
- Biden leads by +10 in New York, +12 if Kennedy isn’t included as of 2/14/2024.
- Biden leads by +16 in Washington State as of 2/14/2024.
- Trump leads by +22 in Montana as of 2/15/2024.
- Trump leads by +9 in Georgia as of 2/18/2024, +6 if Kennedy is not included, and +7 in Georgia, +6 if Kennedy is not included.
- Trump leads by +7 in Nevada on 2/18/2024, +6 if Kennedy is not included. He leads +10 on 2/19/2024, +6 if Kennedy is not included.
- Trump leads +6 in Wisconsin on 2/18/2024, +4 if Kennedy is not included. On 2/23/2024, he led +2. On 2/24/2024, he led by +4, +3 if Kennedy was not included.
- Biden leads in Virginia, +4, as of 2/19/2024.
- Biden leads in Minnesota, +4, as of 2/28/2024.