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The Swedish experiment of doing remarkably little about Covid-19


[h=3]Did Sweden's coronavirus strategy succeed or fail? - BBC News[/h]www.bbc.com › news › world-europe-53498133
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11 mins ago - Despite global criticism, Sweden has seen a drop in serious Covid cases without ever having a lockdown.
 
Sandokan said:
Those who are responsible for the extraordinary damage their judgment has caused, are attacking Sweden since they cannot admit they are responsible for such an unprecedented disaster. There is no good reason to quarantine healthy people, you just quarantine the sick, the vulnerable. So far no correlation between fatalities and strict lockdown has been established. But eventually the truth will come out. Next year we will see the impact of the countries lockdown on mortality rate, employment, business closure and GDP, and make a comparison of the collateral damage.

Comparison of Sweden with some U.S. States and E.U. countries with strict lockdowns with regard to COVID-19 death, updated on July 23 by worldometer.

Place----------Population in MM----------Death in K----------Death/1M pop
Sweden------------10.1---------------------------5.7----------------------562
Belgium-----------11.6---------------------------9.8-----------------------846
Spain---------------46.7-------------------------28.4----------------------608
Italy----------------60.5-------------------------35.1----------------------671
UK------------------67.8-------------------------45.6----------------------664
France--------------65.2-------------------------30.2----------------------462
Netherlands--------17.1--------------------------6.1----------------------358
New York-----------19.4-------------------------32.7--------------------1,679
New Jersey----------9.0-------------------------15.8--------------------1,780
Michigan-----------10.0---------------------------6.4----------------------640
Pennsylvania-------12.8--------------------------7.2----------------------560
Illinois-------------12.7--------------------------7.6----------------------597
Click to expand...

Nonsense is being repeated, the UK, France, Belgium and the Netherlands are as countries infinitely more populated than Sweden, hence more spread and more deaths. The same goes for several US states. Your comparisons are faulty and nonsensical.
 
Peter King said:
Nonsense is being repeated, the UK, France, Belgium and the Netherlands are as countries infinitely more populated than Sweden, hence more spread and more deaths. The same goes for several US states. Your comparisons are faulty and nonsensical.
Click to expand...

You don't think deaths per million population provides a good comparative metric?
 
Jack Hays said:
You don't think deaths per million population provides a good comparative metric?
Click to expand...

No, because there are other factors to how deadly a virus is than simple deaths per million.

If you take Sweden/Norway and Finland together you have about 20 million people among which the virus can spread. These countries are not gigantically popular as holiday destinations (for ski holidays) or huge business/political centers. Add to that the huge size of these countries and low population density and you have a good situation for a virus not to spread if you lock down properly.

Now look at Belgium for example, the deadliest so to speak. It has about 11.5 million, add to that it's neighbors the Netherlands, France, Germany and Luxembourg and you add another almost 170 million to the 11.5 million Belgians through which the virus can spread. Which is a lot more than 20 and a bit million like Sweden/Norway/Finland have. Now I know Denmark is linked by a bridge but if you close down that option you have a good chance to keep others out besides those in your region.

Now you have Italy and Austria as popular vacation destinations for Germans/Dutch and Belgians and during the ski vacation period the virus starts spreading in Austria and especially Italy. Even schools go skiing in Italy from Belgium/Netherlands and they bring the virus back to Belgium/Netherlands/Germany. Then comes carnaval. A 6 day period of partying, drinking, drinking, fornicating, kissing, getting way too close to one another and you have the perfect storm for spreading Covid.

Now the disease is spreading through Germany/Belgium/Netherlands/France. All are more or less very densely populated countries. Especially Belgium and the Netherlands. Hospitals are struggling to keep up with the virus load and the chances of virus tracking and tracing goes out the window because it just spreads too fast.

Now with Belgium especially you have to add: being a big transport link for goods from the Antwerp harbor and the Liege airport (local hub for DHL and others). Then you add it being the political center of Europe, so loads of politicians coming and going (as well as civil servants, and you have more problems.

Last but not least in theory Belgium is a federation. It has to deal with the federal government, the Flemish government, the Wallonia government and the EU government all at once. It is a political nightmare.

So those are some of the reasons why looking at simple statistics for fatality is not enough, because it ignores:

- how populated a region is
- how densely populated it is
- local traditions and reasons of extra spreading
- easy cross border infecting
- and other less quantifiable problems

Just looking at the deaths is just not a true reflection of how good or bad a country did.
 
Peter King said:
Nonsense is being repeated, the UK, France, Belgium and the Netherlands are as countries infinitely more populated than Sweden, hence more spread and more deaths. The same goes for several US states. Your comparisons are faulty and nonsensical.
Click to expand...
Greater Stockholm (IOW not just the city) alone has a death count of nearly double (998 per million) that of Sweden in total.

You're absolutely correct, these numbers games we see here constitute, without informed interpretation, abject stupidity.

No matter how often they are repeated.
 
Peter King said:
No, because there are other factors to how deadly a virus is than simple deaths per million.

If you take Sweden/Norway and Finland together you have about 20 million people among which the virus can spread. These countries are not gigantically popular as holiday destinations (for ski holidays) or huge business/political centers. Add to that the huge size of these countries and low population density and you have a good situation for a virus not to spread if you lock down properly.

Now look at Belgium for example, the deadliest so to speak. It has about 11.5 million, add to that it's neighbors the Netherlands, France, Germany and Luxembourg and you add another almost 170 million to the 11.5 million Belgians through which the virus can spread. Which is a lot more than 20 and a bit million like Sweden/Norway/Finland have. Now I know Denmark is linked by a bridge but if you close down that option you have a good chance to keep others out besides those in your region.

Now you have Italy and Austria as popular vacation destinations for Germans/Dutch and Belgians and during the ski vacation period the virus starts spreading in Austria and especially Italy. Even schools go skiing in Italy from Belgium/Netherlands and they bring the virus back to Belgium/Netherlands/Germany. Then comes carnaval. A 6 day period of partying, drinking, drinking, fornicating, kissing, getting way too close to one another and you have the perfect storm for spreading Covid.

Now the disease is spreading through Germany/Belgium/Netherlands/France. All are more or less very densely populated countries. Especially Belgium and the Netherlands. Hospitals are struggling to keep up with the virus load and the chances of virus tracking and tracing goes out the window because it just spreads too fast.

Now with Belgium especially you have to add: being a big transport link for goods from the Antwerp harbor and the Liege airport (local hub for DHL and others). Then you add it being the political center of Europe, so loads of politicians coming and going (as well as civil servants, and you have more problems.

Last but not least in theory Belgium is a federation. It has to deal with the federal government, the Flemish government, the Wallonia government and the EU government all at once. It is a political nightmare.

So those are some of the reasons why looking at simple statistics for fatality is not enough, because it ignores:

- how populated a region is
- how densely populated it is
- local traditions and reasons of extra spreading
- easy cross border infecting
- and other less quantifiable problems

Just looking at the deaths is just not a true reflection of how good or bad a country did.
Click to expand...

It could be argued that you're making the case to justify Sweden's relatively relaxed approach.
 
Jack Hays said:
It could be argued that you're making the case to justify Sweden's relatively relaxed approach.
Click to expand...

But I am doing the opposite. I am saying that for countries like Belgium/the Netherlands it was a near impossible task to curtail the virus but with a stringent or in my country intelligent lock down, we were able to flatten the curve despite the problems we were facing and the location/density was always against us.

Sweden however did not have those issues in that large of a quantity and had they locked down like their neighbors, they too would have very low death rates. They could have done the right thing and had a death toll like Norway, Finland or even Denmark. But they choose to be indifferent to their own population and have a death rate above the Netherlands and on the way to Belgium if the curve is not stopped.

They could have been in the high tens per million, but they choose to not do that.
 
Peter King said:
But I am doing the opposite. I am saying that for countries like Belgium/the Netherlands it was a near impossible task to curtail the virus but with a stringent or in my country intelligent lock down, we were able to flatten the curve despite the problems we were facing and the location/density was always against us.

Sweden however did not have those issues in that large of a quantity and had they locked down like their neighbors, they too would have very low death rates. They could have done the right thing and had a death toll like Norway, Finland or even Denmark. But they choose to be indifferent to their own population and have a death rate above the Netherlands and on the way to Belgium if the curve is not stopped.

They could have been in the high tens per million, but they choose to not do that.
Click to expand...

I believe Sweden's curve has now dropped very low.
 
Jack Hays said:
I believe Sweden's curve has now dropped very low.
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Not compared to it's neighboring countries Norway and Finland. Sweden had 84 new cases and 10 deaths. Norway had just 7 new cases and zero deaths. Finland had 8 new cases and 1 death. And it does not erase the thousands of mostly elderly people that it allowed to die.
 
Peter King said:
But I am doing the opposite. I am saying that for countries like Belgium/the Netherlands it was a near impossible task to curtail the virus but with a stringent or in my country intelligent lock down, we were able to flatten the curve despite the problems we were facing and the location/density was always against us.

Sweden however did not have those issues in that large of a quantity and had they locked down like their neighbors, they too would have very low death rates. They could have done the right thing and had a death toll like Norway, Finland or even Denmark. But they choose to be indifferent to their own population and have a death rate above the Netherlands and on the way to Belgium if the curve is not stopped.

They could have been in the high tens per million, but they choose to not do that.
Click to expand...


Yes - I agree with this.


Sweden's 'trust the public's common sense' approach is similar to the one the UK initially wanted to follow. The UK of course has none of Sweden's natural advantages, and went into a belated lock down.

But look, my focus is now on the likely second and third waves through autumn and winter. I'm particularly concerned for the UK with its dreadful high population density and over-stretched infrastructure, it's libertarian inclined government, its high Asian population living in cramped multi-generational units, and its obsession with (of all things) pubs as a national institution. A country which prioritised opening pubs ahead of schools, and which failed abysmally and quite deliberately to protect its elderly people in care homes - it's seriously messed up.
 
Westphalian said:
Yes - I agree with this.


Sweden's 'trust the public's common sense' approach is similar to the one the UK initially wanted to follow. The UK of course has none of Sweden's natural advantages, and went into a belated lock down.

But look, my focus is now on the likely second and third waves through autumn and winter. I'm particularly concerned for the UK with its dreadful high population density and over-stretched infrastructure, it's libertarian inclined government, its high Asian population living in cramped multi-generational units, and its obsession with (of all things) pubs as a national institution. A country which prioritised opening pubs ahead of schools, and which failed abysmally and quite deliberately to protect its elderly people in care homes - it's seriously messed up.
Click to expand...

I live in a highly populated part of the UK and don't know anyone that knows anyone that has died of Covid 19. Most people that have died of it would have probably died this year in any case (median age of death is 80+)...our current death rate of all causes is below normal now. I don't think it would be right to wipe out our way of life for such a trivial risk (1 in 1300 death rate here, mainly over 80 years old or with pre-existing serious illness).
 
Big Eye said:
I live in a highly populated part of the UK and don't know anyone that knows anyone that has died of Covid 19. Most people that have died of it would have probably died this year in any case (median age of death is 80+)...our current death rate of all causes is below normal now. I don't think it would be right to wipe out our way of life for such a trivial risk (1 in 1300 death rate here, mainly over 80 years old or with pre-existing serious illness).
Click to expand...

The London government's response to Covid-19 has been one disaster after another. Late to introduce any lockdown measures and half the deaths in old folks homes with healthcare workers dropping like flies.
 
[h=2]Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update[/h][FONT=&quot]Posted on July 27, 2020 by niclewis | 54 comments[/FONT]
By Nic Lewis
I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. I opined, based on my modelling, that the HIT probably lay somewhere between 7% and 24%, and that evidence from Stockholm County suggested it was around 17% there, and had been reached. Mounting evidence supports my reasoning.[1]
I particularly want to highlight an important paper published on July 24th “Herd immunity thresholds estimated from unfolding epidemics” (Aguas et al.).[2] The author team is much the same as that of the earlier theoretical paper (Gomes et al.[3]) that prompted my May 10th article. Continue reading →
 
Jean-s said:
The London government's response to Covid-19 has been one disaster after another. Late to introduce any lockdown measures and half the deaths in old folks homes with healthcare workers dropping like flies.
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"healthcare workers dropping like flies", what utter drivel. It has been made clear that the UK deaths total has been deliberately "boosted" to look worse than what it actually is by PHE...probably for political purposes. The death rate in the UK is now lower than normal which indicates that most people that died of Covid 19 were already extremely ill or old.

I do agree that this lock down was badly managed though.
 
Big Eye said:
"healthcare workers dropping like flies", what utter drivel. It has been made clear that the UK deaths total has been deliberately "boosted" to look worse than what it actually is by PHE...probably for political purposes. The death rate in the UK is now lower than normal which indicates that most people that died of Covid 19 were already extremely ill or old.

I do agree that this lock down was badly managed though.
Click to expand...

A number of NHS and private healthcare staff, from heart surgeons to nurses, porters and volunteers, have lost their lives to the coronavirus in the UK. The government says there have been 49 verified deaths of NHS staff from Covid-19 during the pandemic, but it is clear that many others have died. The Guardian has recorded 200 deaths that have been reported in the news, but the true figure is likely to be higher because not all deaths will be in the public domain.
Doctors, nurses, porters, volunteers: the UK health workers who have died from Covid-19 | World news | The Guardian

I wonder if the English people believe the government or The Guardian.
 
Sweden Unveils 'Promising' Covid-19 Data as New Cases ...

www.bloomberg.com › news › articles › sweden-unveils-promising-c...
ATSCLMZhgGspeUrDuXbfwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==


23 hours ago

As other countries face renewed outbreaks, Sweden’s latest Covid-19 figures suggest it’s rapidly bringing the virus under control.

“That Sweden has come down to these levels is very promising,” state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell told reporters in Stockholm on Tuesday.

The Health Agency of Sweden says that since hitting a peak in late June, the infection rate has fallen sharply. That’s amid an increase in testing over the period. “The curves are going down and the curves for the seriously ill are beginning to approach zero,” Tegnell said. . . .​
 
Sweden screwed up.


They admitted it
 
Jack Hays said:
". . . the positive trends have led Anders Tegnell, PhD, chief epidemiologist at the Swedish Public Health Agency and architect of Sweden's coronavirus strategy, to state that the "Swedish strategy is working" . . . ."
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He has also said that if they could do it over they would do it differently because they killed a lot of people


Deny that
 
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