The Swedish experiment of doing remarkably little about Covid-19

[Snazzy]

Wouldn't work in the UK... Personally I think civil disobedience is rising (yesterday for our family exercise the roads were pretty busy) but even then we had idiots heading off to the less populated (scenic) areas and spreading the virus. My region (North West) has Manchester as the main metropolis but you can't put the Coronavirus cases in Cumbria and Lancashire down to Manchester being a hotspot - Cumbria for example was second only to London for quite a while.

I hear that loud and clear. I'm down saaaaarff, and those flaunting the lockdown appears to be gathering pace.

It's a flimsy lockdown in too many ways. On one hand you have B&Q, KFC, Maccy D's, etc now opening during lockdown, then most people are wondering why others are pointlessly queueing up in their droves to buy non-essential stuff.

It's all so very contradictory.

Now Spain, I have to admit have really surprised me with their general competence and rigidness (from what I have read about and seen). Lockdown means lockdown there. Although I'm sure they have their fair share of idiots, but on the whole they appear to have things in hand.

I'm may be well out on the assumption?

 

[Snazzy]

No offense, but I'll stick with my assessment of the imprudence of trying to make any country's model fit another. Especially so with Sweden

No offence taken, although I stick with my synopsis too.

The example of "citizens" scarpering for second residences before the announced lockdown serves as a prime example. Tell a Spaniard there's a place he can't go, and he'll go. Even if he never originally intended to.

Spaniards have been told about many places they can't go since mid March, and they seem to be heeding that instruction rather well. The fact they're not "scarpering" after the announced lockdown serves more as a prime example to me.

The article actually criticizes it more than doing anything else.

Are we reading the same article?

 

[PeteEU]

The Swedish "model" is clearly not working. While Denmark and others have clearly broken the cruve and are seeing less infections and deaths and the pressure on the healthcare system had eased considerably, Sweden is heading the other way. Rises in infections and deaths and a continuing pressure on a healthcare system that in some areas are near breaking point.

Denmark is opening up, while Sweden is closing down by a 1000 cuts.

The only way Sweden model will work is if you do get immunity when recovered and so far there is no evidence of that..in fact there is evidence to the contrary. And to get there, you have to sacrifice 1000s of lives.

And regardless the lockdowns in Denmark or Spain were not done to prevent spread and save lives, but to contain spread so that the healthcare system did not fully collapse. As long as there is no vaccine, then one has to assume that everyone will get it at some point...

People also forget with Sweden is that they had the same warning time as the US, so could prepare better, by informing the population, isolating the elderly and so on. Places like Spain and Italy did not have that time.


Sent from my Honor 8X

 

[Chagos]

No offence taken, although I stick with my synopsis too.



Spaniards have been told about many places they can't go since mid March, and they seem to be heeding that instruction rather well. The fact they're not "scarpering" after the announced lockdown serves more as a prime example to me.

Have we been watching different news sources? Spain's lockdown is not a recommendation to its people but an enforced measure, heavily controlled by law enforcement and incurring penalties when not adhered to. That most Spaniards actually support it takes nothing from that. It's all totally different from Sweden.

Are we reading the same article?

The country, which has a population of 10.3 million, has seen more than 20,300 cases and 2,462 deaths as of Thursday afternoon — far higher than its Nordic neighbors, which implemented stricter containment measures, the latest data shows.By contrast, Denmark has recorded 9,206 cases and 443 deaths among its 5.8 million residents, while Norway has seen 7,680 cases and 207 deaths among 5.4 million, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University. Finland confirmed just 4,906 cases and 206 deaths out of a population of 5.5 million.

Sweden’s approach has been criticized by 2,300 academics who penned a letter last month calling for the government to reconsider its loose restrictions, Agence France-Press reported.

“We must establish control over the situation, we cannot head into a situation where we get complete chaos. No one has tried this route, so why should we test it first in Sweden, without informed consent?” said Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler, a professor at the Karolinska Institute.

 

[Chagos]

Closing of borders and lockdowns are not supported by historical scientific basis.

If you were aware of where the term quarantine originated ("quarantena" = 40 days in Venetian language), you'd realize how incorrect your assessment is. Because closing and lockdown is precisely what that was about. In the sense of refusing entry.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

I hear that loud and clear. I'm down saaaaarff, and those flaunting the lockdown appears to be gathering pace.

It's a flimsy lockdown in too many ways. On one hand you have B&Q, KFC, Maccy D's, etc now opening during lockdown, then most people are wondering why others are pointlessly queueing up in their droves to buy non-essential stuff.

It's all so very contradictory.

Now Spain, I have to admit have really surprised me with their general competence and rigidness (from what I have read about and seen). Lockdown means lockdown there. Although I'm sure they have their fair share of idiots, but on the whole they appear to have things in hand.

I'm may be well out on the assumption?

Have to admit I was surprised to hear how rigid it had been in Spain when they talked about finally letting younger kids out. The fines in Spain are serious fines whereas in the UK we've been lax about things.

~ People also forget with Sweden is that they had the same warning time as the US, so could prepare better ~

Yeah, I know we can't compare all things but Govt response is one thing. The UK, US and Sweden CAN be compared there.

 

[Lord of Planar]

~�� The beginning of this thread spelled doom and gloom. Now today Sweden is looked upon as an example to consider. Who knew ...

I knew from the start this was over-hyped.

 

[Lord of Planar]

The Swedish "model" is clearly not working. While Denmark and others have clearly broken the cruve and are seeing less infections and deaths and the pressure on the healthcare system had eased considerably, Sweden is heading the other way. Rises in infections and deaths and a continuing pressure on a healthcare system that in some areas are near breaking point.

Denmark is opening up, while Sweden is closing down by a 1000 cuts.

The only way Sweden model will work is if you do get immunity when recovered and so far there is no evidence of that..in fact there is evidence to the contrary. And to get there, you have to sacrifice 1000s of lives.

And regardless the lockdowns in Denmark or Spain were not done to prevent spread and save lives, but to contain spread so that the healthcare system did not fully collapse. As long as there is no vaccine, then one has to assume that everyone will get it at some point...

People also forget with Sweden is that they had the same warning time as the US, so could prepare better, by informing the population, isolating the elderly and so on. Places like Spain and Italy did not have that time.


Sent from my Honor 8X

How do you know it isn't doing as they intended?

Because the lying media said so?

 

[Infinite Chaos]

How do you know it isn't doing as they intended?

Wipe out the expensive Swedish old age pensioners in care homes? "Ann Linde admitted the high number of deaths in care homes was an area where Sweden had failed."

Because the lying media said so?

The "Kool-Aid" approach to all media doesn't work in Europe. Try again.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Here's a bit more on what's actually happening in Sweden:

Sweden’s foreign minister has said it is way too early to judge her country’s light-touch approach to Covid-19, but warned that the government would take tougher action if needed after five Stockholm pubs were shut for not observing physical distancing.

“There’s been a lot of misunderstanding,” Ann Linde said. “We have pretty much the same goals as every other government … And as we have always said, we are perfectly ready to go with more binding regulations if the population does not follow.”

Sweden has closed senior schools and banned gatherings of more than 50, but asked – rather than ordered – people to avoid non-essential travel, work from home and stay at home if they are elderly or ill. Relying on citizens to act responsibly, it has left shops and restaurants and gyms open, but expects those visiting them to obey distancing norms.

~

Stockholm authorities shut down five pubs and restaurants that failed to observe the recommendations this weekend, only allowing customers time to finish their food before obliging them to leave.

“This was a strong signal,” Linde said. “These are not voluntary measures. You are meant to follow them. We believe the best way for us is a combination of some binding regulations and clear advice to the public. As far as possible, we want to build on a strong, longstanding relationship of trust between authorities and the public.”

~

Linde said Sweden’s relatively high death toll was “certainly not part of the plan” but conceded that the exceptional number of deaths in care homes, which so far account for more than half of all the country’s deaths from the coronavirus, was “one area where we have failed”.

Just wish people would do some basic research and see what the Swedes themselves are saying and not just post their political interpretation of facts. These last 4 years have seen the death of fact based discussion due to a certain election but even that foolishness comes to an end. The Swedes have enforced rules where they felt social distancing wasn't being observed - and yes, they admit their mortality rate isn't as good as that of their neighbours.

 

[LosAngelesAngel]

I knew from the start this was over-hyped.

~ I think many of us have that feeling ...

 

[Lord of Planar]

Wipe out the expensive Swedish old age pensioners in care homes? "Ann Linde admitted the high number of deaths in care homes was an area where Sweden had failed."



The "Kool-Aid" approach to all media doesn't work in Europe. Try again.

And what is the normal death rate in these places?

What is skewing the numbers is that everybody is looking for a reason to blame a death on COVID-19. By one quick source I referenced, Sweden had 88,766 deaths in 2019. That amounts to almost 7,400 deaths per month, mostly the elderly. That is where the problem lies.

I am convinced, that at the end of 2020, the deaths for the year will only be marginally greater than 2019.

Again. They are purposely counting any deaths they can as COVID-19 deaths. Even a meningitis death...

I pulled up some quick states. In 2017, there were an average 7,708 deaths per day, according to the CDC. Again, mostly the elderly.

Think about the reality. What if by the end of the year, 2020 sees a normal increase in deaths.

Is COVID-19 really the boggy-man it is said to be?

Granted, it is more deadly than the average flu. But I solidly believe this has been over hyped.

 

[Chagos]

One can't help but wonder what comparing daily deaths in the US for 2017 with Sweden is supposed to achieve.

Maybe more pertinent would be that Swedish deaths (attributed to Covid-19) in the time span from Mar-31 to Apr-30 of this year hiked from 180 to 2,586.

Sweden Coronavirus: 21,520 Cases and 2,653 Deaths - Worldometer

Attributing that clear monthly rise to the Swedes lugging every conceivable other demise into the Covid-19 pot is not only highly speculative, but alone on that premise, sounds pretty stupid.

The stupidity becoming even more apparent (even allowing for aforesaid speculation) when considering that in the same time span the US rate climbed from 5,100 to 63,000.

 

[Lord of Planar]

One can't help but wonder what comparing daily deaths in the US for 2017 with Sweden is supposed to achieve.

Maybe more pertinent would be that Swedish deaths (attributed to Covid-19) in the time span from Mar-31 to Apr-30 of this year hiked from 180 to 2,586.

Sweden Coronavirus: 21,520 Cases and 2,653 Deaths - Worldometer

Attributing that clear monthly rise to the Swedes lugging every conceivable other demise into the Covid-19 pot is not only highly speculative, but alone on that premise, sounds pretty stupid.

And the average annual monthly deaths for Sweden are just under 7,400.

Are you completely ignoring my point?

 

[Chagos]

When no credible point is made, there's nothing to ignore. And the point that was attempted has no credibility since no average death toll for the months of Jan. to Mar. of this year was presented.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

And what is the normal death rate in these places?

What is skewing the numbers is that everybody is looking for a reason to blame a death on COVID-19. By one quick source I referenced, Sweden had 88,766 deaths in 2019. That amounts to almost 7,400 deaths per month, mostly the elderly. That is where the problem lies.

Firstly Sweden’s mortality rate has been decreasing yearly since 1970 to 2019. The rate fell from 10.1 per 1000 to 9.3 and then suddenly this year they have had the highest number of deaths per week for 3-4 weeks since 2000.

I am convinced, that at the end of 2020, the deaths for the year will only be marginally greater than 2019.

Again. They are purposely counting any deaths they can as COVID-19 deaths. Even a meningitis death...

Who is “they” and why has meningitis or other suddenly started killing 12% more people in Sweden than in previous similar periods?

Is COVID-19 really the boggy-man it is said to be?

Granted, it is more deadly than the average flu. But I solidly believe this has been over hyped.

Tell you what: I’ll sit without any mask or protection in a room with 10 people who have influenza or another “average flu” for a couple of days and YOU sit in a room without any mask or protection with 10 people who have Coronavirus for a couple of days and see which of us is alive in 28 days time.

 

[Lord of Planar]

When no credible point is made, there's nothing to ignore. And the point that was attempted has no credibility since no average death toll for the months of Jan. to Mar. of this year was presented.

Here is the 2019 deaths:

Jan 8,329

Feb 7,446

Mar 7,764

Total; 23,539


UNdata | record view | Deaths by month of death

Have to select Sweden and 2019 as filters.

 

[Chagos]

There was no Covid-19 in Sweden in 2019, that's why I referred to the first three months in 2020. Not my problem if others can't properly read.

 

[Lord of Planar]

There was no Covid-19 in Sweden in 2019, that's why I referred to the first three months in 2020. Not my problem if others can't properly read.

They are about 10% of the 2019 numbers.

I haven't found the total first quarter 2020 deaths. Have you?

 

[Chagos]

If I'd found the total figures for the first three months of 2020, I'd have brought them.

And with that I'm done here in this exchange, seeing how only a 2020 total (perhaps in December) will allow for speculation to be put where it belongs.

 

[PeteEU]

Here is the 2019 deaths:

Jan 8,329

Feb 7,446

Mar 7,764

Total; 23,539


UNdata | record view | Deaths by month of death

Have to select Sweden and 2019 as filters.

Sweden has a very good statistics website like most Scandinavia countries.

Statistics Sweden

Now there you can find a weekly death report.
https://www.scb.se/contentassets/ed...-preliminar-statistik-over-doda-inkl-eng.xlsx

In here they compare among other things the average per week from 2015 to 2019 versus this year's weekly numbers.

From week 1 to 11 the numbers in 2020 are equal or in fact a tad lower than the average. This changes in week 12. From then on and till now the numbers are 400 to 600 higher than the average. For example week 16, that's 2 weeks ago and the latest number. The average for the last 5 years was 1752 deaths. This year 2310 deaths.

One note, these are only preliminary numbers so they can change.

Regardless the last month and a half, have seen a significant jump in deaths each week.

Sent from my Honor 8X

 

[Snazzy]

Have we been watching different news sources? Spain's lockdown is not a recommendation to its people but an enforced measure, heavily controlled by law enforcement and incurring penalties when not adhered to. That most Spaniards actually support it takes nothing from that. It's all totally different from Sweden.

The fact the measures are enforced in Spain, and adhered to by its people (the large majority) clearly shows that some autonomous communities with smaller densities wouldn't need such draconian measures if their infection rates were low. Because of Sweden's approach, countries now have some kind of blueprint to work from if they ever choose to adopt similar measures - which is basically the point I was/am trying to make.

Just because Swedes on the whole are more subservient than a percentage of Spaniards takes nothing from that either.


"The country, which has a population of 10.3 million, has seen more than 20,300 cases and 2,462 deaths as of Thursday afternoon — far higher than its Nordic neighbors, which implemented stricter containment measures, the latest data shows.By contrast, Denmark has recorded 9,206 cases and 443 deaths among its 5.8 million residents, while Norway has seen 7,680 cases and 207 deaths among 5.4 million, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University. Finland confirmed just 4,906 cases and 206 deaths out of a population of 5.5 million.

Sweden’s approach has been criticized by 2,300 academics who penned a letter last month calling for the government to reconsider its loose restrictions, Agence France-Press reported.

“We must establish control over the situation, we cannot head into a situation where we get complete chaos. No one has tried this route, so why should we test it first in Sweden, without informed consent?” said Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler, a professor at the Karolinska Institute."

This is hardly the article criticising it more than anything else. The article has more to do with Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert.

The separate part you quoted is merely stating figures and quoting the AFP that certain academics have criticised the measures. There are also academics that agree with the current measures. Although in all fairness, from what I've seen and heard these past few months from academics, experts, professors, etc - I don't hold on to much of what they say as they all seem to be squabbling amongst themselves and contradicting themselves and each other on a daily basis.

 

[Chagos]

~.................... Although in all fairness, from what I've seen and heard these past few months from academics, experts, professors, etc - I don't hold on to much of what they say as they all seem to be squabbling amongst themselves and contradicting themselves and each other on a daily basis.

Well, that's something we can most certainly agree upon.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

~ From week 1 to 11 the numbers in 2020 are equal or in fact a tad lower than the average. This changes in week 12. From then on and till now the numbers are 400 to 600 higher than the average. For example week 16, that's 2 weeks ago and the latest number. The average for the last 5 years was 1752 deaths. This year 2310 deaths.
~

Regardless the last month and a half, have seen a significant jump in deaths each week ~

Which is the point I made in 191. All of a sudden a larger number of Swedes have been dying in a 3-4 week period than at similar times in the last 20+ years. It ain't meningitis / drunk-driving / mass suicide / Viking challenges etc either.

 

[Snazzy]

Have to admit I was surprised to hear how rigid it had been in Spain when they talked about finally letting younger kids out. The fines in Spain are serious fines whereas in the UK we've been lax about things.

The UK's seemingly lax attitude will be our undoing. We are creeping up the Worldometer chart into Spain and Italy's territory with regards to infection rates, and have surpassed the former with death rates. Although I believe that has something to do with the UK now including care home cases.

Still, it's not looking good, no matter how much spin the gov't put on it.

Yet people are more than happy to pop to B&Q and mingle for the sake of a tin of paint.