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The problem with "anyone but Trump" is there isn't anyone "there"

Luckyone said:
I hope you enjoy your new home if Trump gets elected. Given your love for Trump, I am sure you will enjoy it to the fullest.
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Given the historical "quality" of his posts, he's been there for some time.
 
NWRatCon said:
Actually, no. A different segment of the GOP will simply not vote if Trump is the nominee. That's why his peak is the same as his current support.
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Obviously, it’s a “different segment”, but recent polls (for what they are worth) show that ‘Trump fans’ are about 37% of the republicant primary electorate and that ‘never Trump’ voters are also about 37%.
 
NWRatCon said:
The Republican party would desperately not have to tie its wagon to the faltering ship that is Donald Trump, but what are the options? The field has not significantly changed since March - when all of the indictments started:

The 2024 GOP field: How they win, how they lose (Politico);​

Who’s ahead in the national polls? (FiveThirtyEight)​

Let's all stop pretending anyone but Trump will be the GOP presidential nominee (Salon)​

"Not only are all these "new" Republicans molding themselves into the MAGA image of angry culture warriors, but they are all also going to fail miserably to unseat Trump. All this talk about new blood is interesting to the mainstream press and their mostly non-Republican audiences, but it fails to understand what motivates most Republican voters, especially those who vote in primaries. They don't want fresh faces, or anything resembling change. The whole point of being MAGA is bitterly clinging to an imaginary past, and rejecting any reminder that time is marching on past the stale reactionary politics of people, like Trump, who haven't updated their worldviews since the 80s."
...
"Haley got some good press by bragging about raising $11 million in 6 weeks. Turns out the real number was closer to $8 million. Scott can't get much attention at all, except when he's bumbling an answer about abortion. And the more people see DeSantis, the less they like him, as his plummeting poll numbers and increasingly dry fundraising apparatus show. Realistically, the polls are where they have been for a couple of years: Trump is the frontrunner in the GOP primary race and no one else is close. That isn't going to change."

None of them are serious candidates. NONE OF THEM. They are all just hoping that they can survive longer than Trump and his myriad indictments, and that is no basis for electing someone. They have literally nothing on offer. (I miss Romney and McCain.)
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I've been pulling for Tim Scott. Not because I like him, I don't. But because of the conundrum he will present to the racist MAGA base.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
Obviously, it’s a “different segment”, but recent polls (for what they are worth) show that ‘Trump fans’ are about 37% of the republicant primary electorate and that ‘never Trump’ voters are also about 37%.
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Exactly my point. I think that is Trump's ceiling, or close to it.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
OK, but that’s only among likely republicant voters.
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Which is much, much lower. The real risk to the United States, as a nation, is the reflexive nature of GOP voters, who vote for any GOP candidate regardless of disqualification.
 
RIP U.S. Democracy said:
What seems doubtful? Not the history books -- they will crucify the Republican Party for standing by Trump during these past 7 years.

Absentee voting benefitted both parties in the 2020 election, due to Covid. That is a major reason for record turnout for both Republicans and Democrats.

Those Congressional seat numbers that you cited were before Jan 6, before Trump's 4 indictments, and before the Dobbs abortion decision. 2024 could be a total disaster for Republicans.
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I believe there is a small percentage of Republican voters and a larger percentage of Republican-leaning Independents who believe the indictments are justified and that Trump is indeed a criminal. My hope is that these people abstain from voting in 2024. Democrats need about 5% more votes than Republicans to overcome gerrymandering. These rational thinking Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents could give the Democrats the election by simply staying home.
 
RedFishBlueFish said:
I believe there is a small percentage of Republican voters and a larger percentage of Republican-leaning Independents who believe the indictments are justified and that Trump is indeed a criminal. My hope is that these people abstain from voting in 2024. Democrats need about 5% more votes than Republicans to overcome gerrymandering. These rational thinking Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents could give the Democrats the election by simply staying home.
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That’s nonsense since more than just the office of POTUS is on the ballot.
 
BirdinHand said:
The GOP has no “bench” and they don’t seem to be developing one either.

If you look across the aisle, you can SEE that the DNC *is* developing their bench. They’re succession planning. They’re putting players in places for 2026, 2028, and beyond.

There’s nothing on the GOP side. There is no leadership within that party.

And that’s not good at all for America.

Because we *need* two strong parties to keep one or the other from running too far to the extreme.

Currently, the GOP has gone so far MAGA - they’re out of the “game”.

And yeah…I miss the McCain and Romneys of the world. Shit…when Christie is the only “reasonable” man in the race…

We are in trouble.
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I wish the Dems were developing a bench but I just don't see it. That is my principle problem with President Biden. Who do you see is on the bench? At the President's age they need to be his running mate.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
That’s nonsense since more than just the office of POTUS is on the ballot.
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True. But most high school football fans don't come early to watch the B team compete. Sure some of these folks will skip voting for President and vote down ballot. But many or most of them will use their apathy about their Presidential Candidate as an excuse to stay home.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
That’s nonsense since more than just the office of POTUS is on the ballot.
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And are there other reasonable GOP candidates down ballot? Given the status of the party itself, that seems implausible.
 
RedFishBlueFish said:
I believe there is a small percentage of Republican voters and a larger percentage of Republican-leaning Independents who believe the indictments are justified and that Trump is indeed a criminal. My hope is that these people abstain from voting in 2024. Democrats need about 5% more votes than Republicans to overcome gerrymandering. These rational thinking Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents could give the Democrats the election by simply staying home.
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It's going to come down to Independent voters. It always does.

Biden won the Independent vote by 13% in 2020, according to the link below. I think he can easily win Independents by 20% in 2024, thanks to Trump's 4 indictments, the fall out from Jan 6, and the Dobbs abortion decision last year.

If Biden does win Independents by 20%, that will be pretty disastrous for the Republican Party. --

Independent voters, however, made a dramatic and history-changing change: After voting for Trump by a 4-percentage-point margin in 2016, they favored Biden at the ballot box last year by a 13-point margin, with 54% of self-identified independents voting for the Democrat and 41%, for the defeated incumbent.

 
RIP U.S. Democracy said:
It's going to come down to Independent voters. It always does.

Biden won the Independent vote by 13% in 2020, according to the link below. I think he can easily win Independents by 20% in 2024, thanks to Trump's 4 indictments, the fall out from Jan 6, and the Dobbs abortion decision last year.

If Biden does win Independents by 20%, that will be pretty disastrous for the Republican Party. --

Independent voters, however, made a dramatic and history-changing change: After voting for Trump by a 4-percentage-point margin in 2016, they favored Biden at the ballot box last year by a 13-point margin, with 54% of self-identified independents voting for the Democrat and 41%, for the defeated incumbent.

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Thanks for the citation. That restores my faith in Independents a bit. Seems like most of the people who call themselves Independents on this forum are right-leaning.
 
Jay59 said:
That's about rightDeSantis and Biden are the best of the rest.

At least Trump has four years of quality work on his resume.
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Treason and rape are quality work now?


Hear this, you foolish and senseless people,
who have eyes but do not see,
who have ears but do not hear:
Jeremiah 5:21
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Mark 7:6

6 He replied, “Isaiah was right when he prophesied about you hypocrites; as it is written: “ ‘These people honor me with their lips, but their hearts are far from me.
 
NWRatCon said:
The Republican party would desperately not have to tie its wagon to the faltering ship that is Donald Trump, but what are the options? The field has not significantly changed since March - when all of the indictments started:

The 2024 GOP field: How they win, how they lose (Politico);​

Who’s ahead in the national polls? (FiveThirtyEight)​

Let's all stop pretending anyone but Trump will be the GOP presidential nominee (Salon)​

"Not only are all these "new" Republicans molding themselves into the MAGA image of angry culture warriors, but they are all also going to fail miserably to unseat Trump. All this talk about new blood is interesting to the mainstream press and their mostly non-Republican audiences, but it fails to understand what motivates most Republican voters, especially those who vote in primaries. They don't want fresh faces, or anything resembling change. The whole point of being MAGA is bitterly clinging to an imaginary past, and rejecting any reminder that time is marching on past the stale reactionary politics of people, like Trump, who haven't updated their worldviews since the 80s."
...
"Haley got some good press by bragging about raising $11 million in 6 weeks. Turns out the real number was closer to $8 million. Scott can't get much attention at all, except when he's bumbling an answer about abortion. And the more people see DeSantis, the less they like him, as his plummeting poll numbers and increasingly dry fundraising apparatus show. Realistically, the polls are where they have been for a couple of years: Trump is the frontrunner in the GOP primary race and no one else is close. That isn't going to change."

None of them are serious candidates. NONE OF THEM. They are all just hoping that they can survive longer than Trump and his myriad indictments, and that is no basis for electing someone. They have literally nothing on offer. (I miss Romney and McCain.)
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I think there’s a few candidates in the GOP field that has the ability to attract and win the independents vote. The problem, none of them can unseat Trump. Trump has a solid core of supporters somewhere between 50-55% of all Republicans. Basically, you’re correct, none of them can beat Trump.

There you go, the Republican candidates that could win independents and the general election can’t win the Republican nomination. Trump can win the nomination but can’t win independents and thus will lose the general election. This is a problem of the Republicans own making. No sympathy from me.

For those republicans sitting on the fence, not really pro-Trump or MAGA Trumpers and want another candidate. Their fear is if Trump isn’t the GOP nominee, many avid, MAGA Trumpers will stay home and not support another Republican candidate. It seems to me, sticking with Trump after he lost in 2020 has placed the Republican Party between a rock and a hard place. Dang if they do, dang if they don’t.
 
RedFishBlueFish said:
Thanks for the citation. That restores my faith in Independents a bit. Seems like most of the people who call themselves Independents on this forum are right-leaning.
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Most of the morons on here are not real Independents. They tell themselves that to feel better about their MAGA and/or Repug beliefs.
 
element94 said:
So, they bring all these charges because he was doing good work?
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Why not. he was doing good work when they fabricated impeachment charges.

Now, they want to try and prevent a second term by any means, legal or not.

element94 said:
You're the one that needs to check into reality. Whew boy!
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I'm the one who goes looking for facts in unusual places. You are the one with a proscribed reading list.

I am not the low-information person here.

element94 said:
This is just too rich, in fact, it's off the meter.
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It's not surprising that you laugh at people who live outside your bubble.

D_NATURED said:
Treason and rape are quality work now?
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Being a good President is quality work.

Trump has never done treason. Bill Clinton is the rapist.

D_NATURED said:
Mark 7:6

6 He replied, “Isaiah was right when he prophesied about you hypocrites; as it is written: “ ‘These people honor me with their lips, but their hearts are far from me.
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Nice verse. It applies very well to politics on both sides.

RIP U.S. Democracy said:
Most of the morons on here are not real Independents. They tell themselves that to feel better about their MAGA and/or Repug beliefs.
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You're so far out on the fringe that you refer to a centrist like Trump as an extremist.
 
Jay59 said:
Why not. he was doing good work when they fabricated impeachment charges.

Now, they want to try and prevent a second term by any means, legal or not.

I'm the one who goes looking for facts in unusual places. You are the one with a proscribed reading list.

I am not the low-information person here.
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You're basically the no-information person here, and the detached from reality person here.
Jay59 said:
It's not surprising that you laugh at people who live outside your bubble.
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LOL The richness continues, and you can't see it. Pure gold.
 
NWRatCon said:
The Republican party would desperately not have to tie its wagon to the faltering ship that is Donald Trump, but what are the options? The field has not significantly changed since March - when all of the indictments started:

The 2024 GOP field: How they win, how they lose (Politico);​

Who’s ahead in the national polls? (FiveThirtyEight)​

Let's all stop pretending anyone but Trump will be the GOP presidential nominee (Salon)​

"Not only are all these "new" Republicans molding themselves into the MAGA image of angry culture warriors, but they are all also going to fail miserably to unseat Trump. All this talk about new blood is interesting to the mainstream press and their mostly non-Republican audiences, but it fails to understand what motivates most Republican voters, especially those who vote in primaries. They don't want fresh faces, or anything resembling change. The whole point of being MAGA is bitterly clinging to an imaginary past, and rejecting any reminder that time is marching on past the stale reactionary politics of people, like Trump, who haven't updated their worldviews since the 80s."
...
"Haley got some good press by bragging about raising $11 million in 6 weeks. Turns out the real number was closer to $8 million. Scott can't get much attention at all, except when he's bumbling an answer about abortion. And the more people see DeSantis, the less they like him, as his plummeting poll numbers and increasingly dry fundraising apparatus show. Realistically, the polls are where they have been for a couple of years: Trump is the frontrunner in the GOP primary race and no one else is close. That isn't going to change."

None of them are serious candidates. NONE OF THEM. They are all just hoping that they can survive longer than Trump and his myriad indictments, and that is no basis for electing someone. They have literally nothing on offer. (I miss Romney and McCain.)
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Not materially different for the democrats. They have no bench to replace Biden.
 
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