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The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, badly missing expectations for a 100,000 increase, ADP says

anatta said:
inhibiting growth with too high rates is not a soft landing..it's a strangling of GDP
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There's no evidence this is being done.

Just partisan rhetoric from a President who wants the Fed to be loyal first and foremost to him - and to do his bidding.
 
Kushinator said:
Blame the architect of the first soft landing in U.S. history for Trump's mismanagement of the economy.

Critical thinking does not exist in your stratosphere... it is a cult after all.
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Post #71


Were trump sane, competent, and looking out for the best interests of the nation, the current POTUS would be taking credit for having appointed Powell to the job that he (the Fed Chairman) has done so well.
 
Pyrite said:
There's no evidence this is being done.

Just partisan rhetoric from a President who wants the Fed to be loyal first and foremost to him - and to do his bidding.
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The housing market is stagnant here in central Florida. I've been trying to sell and it's hard to just get foot traffic- unless i have an open house. The FED owns/determines housing interest rates. The housing market is sluggish, and interest rates are too high for current inflation
 
anatta said:
The housing market is stagnant here in central Florida. I've been trying to sell and it's hard to just get foot traffic- unless i have an open house. The FED own's housing interest rates. The housing market is sluggish, and interest rates are too high for current inflation
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Housing has booms and busts. I'm sorry that you seem to be caught in one of the busts. It must be very frustrating, worrying, and inconvenient as all get out. Fingers crossed that your region's and your own luck will change in this respect.

But the fact that this is happening in your area at this moment isn't the fault of the Fed Chairman.

Of course, you can do the research in credible sources, copying and pasting excerpts - I don't do your work - and providing the cites, if you want to try to pin this on Powell.
 
anatta said:
inhibiting growth with too high rates is not a soft landing..it's a strangling of GDP
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We already achieved the soft landing. Trump's economic policy is starting to show signs of fracture... it's exactly why he is pushing for higher deficits and debt.
 
Kushinator said:
We already achieved the soft landing. Trump's economic policy is starting to show signs of fracture... it's exactly why he is pushing for higher deficits and debt.
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Good point. Thanks for catching it and pointing it out.
 
anatta said:
The housing market is stagnant here in central Florida. I've been trying to sell and it's hard to just get foot traffic- unless i have an open house. The FED owns/determines housing interest rates. The housing market is sluggish, and interest rates are too high for current inflation
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Florida's housing market is dealing with an initial demand shock following the pandemic. It has sent housing prices soaring, to the point where it's difficult for first time buyers to stay in-state.

Lower interest rates won't change this reality, because home prices will only increase in a lower interest rate environment.
 
Kushinator said:
Florida's housing market is dealing with an initial demand shock following the pandemic. It has sent housing prices soaring, to the point where it's difficult for first time buyers to stay in-state.

Lower interest rates won't change this reality, because home prices will only increase in a lower interest rate environment.
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www.newsweek.com

Florida's housing market "turning down fast"

Investors pulling out of Florida are likely to accelerate downward pressure on home prices in the state, a real estate analyst has said.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
The result is that prices have started to drop across much of the state, as historically high mortgage rates are still putting a significant damper on demand
 
Is the new golden age promised by Trump?
 
Why unemployment?
  • Because the trade deficit has gone UP due to American exports dropping even MORE than imports.
  • Because a hidden 10%+ tax on everything in the store drives down sales.
  • Because you don't add employees when you don't know if your business will be targeted for destruction tomorrow because you buy parts from Canada or once hired a Chinese guy or somebody identifies as selling to trans people.
  • Because only so many people can be hiding from I.C.E. before the restaurants start cutting hours.
 
Hello My Son said:
Even more bizarre. As if BLS reports aren’t commonly adjusted. Their initial estimates are hardly ever accurate.

Of course you know this is true.

Keeping my posts about BLS from nearly a year ago bookmarked is also really weird.
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Had this said 300k you would have been setting off fireworks.
We know how the game is played. Unless there is a massive error this isnt good.

Its not that hard to state as such
 
anatta said:
the damage is already being done now
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The damage is being done because you are making posts like this and not admitting the truth.
 
Plasmaball said:
Had this said 300k you would have been setting off fireworks.
We know how the game is played. Unless there is a massive error this isnt good.

Its not that hard to state as such
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Weird post. I don’t set off fireworks for jobs reports or estimates that have an unreliable track record for predicting jobs reports…🤷🏾‍♂️
 
ncguy said:
claiming adp is like fortune telling is never going to age well.
that's truly a bizarre comparison.
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Lmao engage in all the denialism that you want. The article literally says it has a bad track record of predicting BLS reports accurately. You getting offended because I called a spade a spade is just strange.

The fact of the matter is that I was right and you were clearly wrong. Own it.
 
ADP is best known as the company that helps other companies cut checks for employees. It calculates wages, taxes and deductions for 25 million American workers, giving ADP inside information on what’s happening in the labor market. The insight ADP gleans from its customers, however, has never proven to be crystal ball that help investors to figure out what the Bureau of Labor Statistics will show. The two reports use different methods to measure the size of the workforce and how many jobs are created each month.

The result: They often diverge month to month, sometimes wildly so, making the ADP a poor prognosticator for the BLS report.

Take May. ADP reported a meager 29,000 increase in new jobs, but the BLS showed a much larger 139,000 gain. April also showed a similarly wide gap between the two reports. Through the first five months of 2025, the difference between the two reports has averaged a whopping 63,000 a month.

ADP acknowledges its survey “is not intended to forecast the BLS non-farm payroll report.” In 2022, it gave up trying to do so after years of misses.

@ncguy, you were saying? I'm not the only one making the "bizarre" claim that it's like fortune telling.
 
Kushinator said:
Florida's housing market is dealing with an initial demand shock following the pandemic. It has sent housing prices soaring, to the point where it's difficult for first time buyers to stay in-state.

Lower interest rates won't change this reality, because home prices will only increase in a lower interest rate environment.
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The issue is housing getting way out ahead of income, the lower interest rates would lower the cost of borrowing but likely increase the prices by a lot.

Since the person in question wants to SELL a house that would be great for them.
 
Plasmaball said:
Had this said 300k you would have been setting off fireworks.
We know how the game is played. Unless there is a massive error this isnt good.

Its not that hard to state as such
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It'll be "revised down" like the last few have been.
 
anatta said:
The housing market is stagnant here in central Florida. I've been trying to sell and it's hard to just get foot traffic- unless i have an open house. The FED owns/determines housing interest rates. The housing market is sluggish, and interest rates are too high for current inflation
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It’s because Florida is becoming nearly impossible to insure due to climate change.
 
Kushinator said:
Their initial estimates lack additional data necessary to provide a more accurate depiction.
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Never claimed they didn't. Just said that the BLS reports are always wrong and most often revised downward, which was especially true during Biden's term.

You're arguing with basic facts simply because I stated them. It's a very weird thing to get stuck and endlessly loop on, even nearly a year later.

Kushinator said:
It is irrelevant. You refuse to accept why,
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No I don't. You just projected that onto me because your motivation in posting is to pick irrelevant fights over semantic nonsense in an effort to do some bizarre flex.

Never anywhere did I claim that BLS has all the necessary data to have complete accuracy. What I claimed was that people (like you) pretend like the BLS report is reliable when it's not reliable at all until a couple of revisions have been made.

Of course you know this is true, which is why you're desperately trying to pick strawman fights about stuff I never said. Desperate times call for desperate tactics when you want to pick fights about nonsensical things.

Kushinator said:
and instead choose to hide behind ignorance.
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Projection.

Kushinator said:
I can search your name and keywords.
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The point went right over your head. The issue here is that you're so stuck on it that you're remembering specific posts from a year ago because you can't let it go that you were wrong about something. That's really desperate posting behavior.

Kushinator said:
Too ****ing bad... maybe you should refrain from shit posting.
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Lol....in your eyes, "shit-posting" = proving you wrong. Which explains why you're stuck on posting about things that happened nearly a year ago.

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