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The one poll to care about today. A solid result for Biden in Pennsylvania.

JacksinPA

JacksinPA

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We didn’t expect much in polling today, as most pollsters either released results ahead of the debate or are just now entering the field with their final polling of the cycle. What we did get was … kind of weird. Whatever you make of it, it didn’t do much to change our view of where the race stands.

State polls
POLLSTERMARGINDIFF. FROM ’16 RESULT
Ariz.Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
Oct. 19-22, 500 L.V.		Trump +1
46-47		+3D
Ariz.Basswood Research (Rep. pollster)
Oct. 3-5, 800 L.V.		Even
48-48		+4D
Fla.St. Pete Polls
Oct. 21-22, 2,527 L.V.		Biden +2
49-47		+3D
Fla.Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research
Oct. 20-21, 800 L.V.		Trump +4
46-50		+3R
Ga.Landmark Communications
Oct. 21-21, 500 L.V.		Trump +4
45-49		+1D
Mich.EPIC-MRA
Oct. 15-19, 600 L.V.		Biden +9
48-39		+9D
Mich.Zia Poll
Oct. 11-18, 2,851 L.V.		Trump +4
45-49		+4R
Mont.New York Times/Siena College
Oct. 18-20, 758 L.V.		Trump +6
43-49		+14D
N.C.Meredith College
Oct. 16-19, 732 L.V.		Biden +4
48-44		+8D
N.C.Data for Progress (Dem. pollster)
Oct. 15-18, 929 L.V.		Biden +4
48-44		+8D
Pa.Muhlenberg College
Oct. 13-20, 416 L.V.		Biden +7
51-44		+8D
https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Navigator-Full-Topline-F10.20.2020.pdf+8D
Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. Before we go into the mud, it’s worth flagging that there was one clear exception to our broader characterization: a poll of Pennsylvania from Muhlenberg College showing Joe Biden up by seven points.

Why should you care? Well, for one, Pennsylvania is probably the single most important state in the election. Mr. Biden has a clear lead in the states carried by Hillary Clinton, as well as Michigan and Wisconsin — essentially putting him one decent-size Trump state away from victory. Pennsylvania is Mr. Biden’s best option for that, so if he has a big lead in Pennsylvania, he has a big lead in the race for the presidency. If he doesn’t have a clear lead in Pennsylvania, he doesn’t have a clear lead.
==========================================================
And my wife & I voted for him in PA.
 
JacksinPA said:


We didn’t expect much in polling today, as most pollsters either released results ahead of the debate or are just now entering the field with their final polling of the cycle. What we did get was … kind of weird. Whatever you make of it, it didn’t do much to change our view of where the race stands.

State polls
POLLSTERMARGINDIFF. FROM ’16 RESULT
Ariz.Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
Oct. 19-22, 500 L.V.		Trump +1
46-47		+3D
Ariz.Basswood Research (Rep. pollster)
Oct. 3-5, 800 L.V.		Even
48-48		+4D
Fla.St. Pete Polls
Oct. 21-22, 2,527 L.V.		Biden +2
49-47		+3D
Fla.Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research
Oct. 20-21, 800 L.V.		Trump +4
46-50		+3R
Ga.Landmark Communications
Oct. 21-21, 500 L.V.		Trump +4
45-49		+1D
Mich.EPIC-MRA
Oct. 15-19, 600 L.V.		Biden +9
48-39		+9D
Mich.Zia Poll
Oct. 11-18, 2,851 L.V.		Trump +4
45-49		+4R
Mont.New York Times/Siena College
Oct. 18-20, 758 L.V.		Trump +6
43-49		+14D
N.C.Meredith College
Oct. 16-19, 732 L.V.		Biden +4
48-44		+8D
N.C.Data for Progress (Dem. pollster)
Oct. 15-18, 929 L.V.		Biden +4
48-44		+8D
Pa.Muhlenberg College
Oct. 13-20, 416 L.V.		Biden +7
51-44		+8D
https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Navigator-Full-Topline-F10.20.2020.pdf+8D
Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. Before we go into the mud, it’s worth flagging that there was one clear exception to our broader characterization: a poll of Pennsylvania from Muhlenberg College showing Joe Biden up by seven points.

Why should you care? Well, for one, Pennsylvania is probably the single most important state in the election. Mr. Biden has a clear lead in the states carried by Hillary Clinton, as well as Michigan and Wisconsin — essentially putting him one decent-size Trump state away from victory. Pennsylvania is Mr. Biden’s best option for that, so if he has a big lead in Pennsylvania, he has a big lead in the race for the presidency. If he doesn’t have a clear lead in Pennsylvania, he doesn’t have a clear lead.
==========================================================
And my wife & I voted for him in PA.
Click to expand...
Yeah Pa is huge. If he carries florida it is over
 
Trump needs FL, Biden needs PA. It's that simple.
 
JacksinPA said:


We didn’t expect much in polling today, as most pollsters either released results ahead of the debate or are just now entering the field with their final polling of the cycle. What we did get was … kind of weird. Whatever you make of it, it didn’t do much to change our view of where the race stands.

State polls
POLLSTERMARGINDIFF. FROM ’16 RESULT
Ariz.Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
Oct. 19-22, 500 L.V.		Trump +1
46-47		+3D
Ariz.Basswood Research (Rep. pollster)
Oct. 3-5, 800 L.V.		Even
48-48		+4D
Fla.St. Pete Polls
Oct. 21-22, 2,527 L.V.		Biden +2
49-47		+3D
Fla.Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research
Oct. 20-21, 800 L.V.		Trump +4
46-50		+3R
Ga.Landmark Communications
Oct. 21-21, 500 L.V.		Trump +4
45-49		+1D
Mich.EPIC-MRA
Oct. 15-19, 600 L.V.		Biden +9
48-39		+9D
Mich.Zia Poll
Oct. 11-18, 2,851 L.V.		Trump +4
45-49		+4R
Mont.New York Times/Siena College
Oct. 18-20, 758 L.V.		Trump +6
43-49		+14D
N.C.Meredith College
Oct. 16-19, 732 L.V.		Biden +4
48-44		+8D
N.C.Data for Progress (Dem. pollster)
Oct. 15-18, 929 L.V.		Biden +4
48-44		+8D
Pa.Muhlenberg College
Oct. 13-20, 416 L.V.		Biden +7
51-44		+8D
https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Navigator-Full-Topline-F10.20.2020.pdf+8D
Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. Before we go into the mud, it’s worth flagging that there was one clear exception to our broader characterization: a poll of Pennsylvania from Muhlenberg College showing Joe Biden up by seven points.

Why should you care? Well, for one, Pennsylvania is probably the single most important state in the election. Mr. Biden has a clear lead in the states carried by Hillary Clinton, as well as Michigan and Wisconsin — essentially putting him one decent-size Trump state away from victory. Pennsylvania is Mr. Biden’s best option for that, so if he has a big lead in Pennsylvania, he has a big lead in the race for the presidency. If he doesn’t have a clear lead in Pennsylvania, he doesn’t have a clear lead.
==========================================================
And my wife & I voted for him in PA.
Click to expand...
Looks mighty close. What's weird about it?
 
JacksinPA said:


We didn’t expect much in polling today, as most pollsters either released results ahead of the debate or are just now entering the field with their final polling of the cycle. What we did get was … kind of weird. Whatever you make of it, it didn’t do much to change our view of where the race stands.

State polls
POLLSTERMARGINDIFF. FROM ’16 RESULT
Ariz.Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
Oct. 19-22, 500 L.V.		Trump +1
46-47		+3D
Ariz.Basswood Research (Rep. pollster)
Oct. 3-5, 800 L.V.		Even
48-48		+4D
Fla.St. Pete Polls
Oct. 21-22, 2,527 L.V.		Biden +2
49-47		+3D
Fla.Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research
Oct. 20-21, 800 L.V.		Trump +4
46-50		+3R
Ga.Landmark Communications
Oct. 21-21, 500 L.V.		Trump +4
45-49		+1D
Mich.EPIC-MRA
Oct. 15-19, 600 L.V.		Biden +9
48-39		+9D
Mich.Zia Poll
Oct. 11-18, 2,851 L.V.		Trump +4
45-49		+4R
Mont.New York Times/Siena College
Oct. 18-20, 758 L.V.		Trump +6
43-49		+14D
N.C.Meredith College
Oct. 16-19, 732 L.V.		Biden +4
48-44		+8D
N.C.Data for Progress (Dem. pollster)
Oct. 15-18, 929 L.V.		Biden +4
48-44		+8D
Pa.Muhlenberg College
Oct. 13-20, 416 L.V.		Biden +7
51-44		+8D
https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Navigator-Full-Topline-F10.20.2020.pdf+8D
Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. Before we go into the mud, it’s worth flagging that there was one clear exception to our broader characterization: a poll of Pennsylvania from Muhlenberg College showing Joe Biden up by seven points.

Why should you care? Well, for one, Pennsylvania is probably the single most important state in the election. Mr. Biden has a clear lead in the states carried by Hillary Clinton, as well as Michigan and Wisconsin — essentially putting him one decent-size Trump state away from victory. Pennsylvania is Mr. Biden’s best option for that, so if he has a big lead in Pennsylvania, he has a big lead in the race for the presidency. If he doesn’t have a clear lead in Pennsylvania, he doesn’t have a clear lead.
==========================================================
And my wife & I voted for him in PA.
Click to expand...
Many of these polls are extremely good news for Trump. Especially the Trump +4 in Michigan and Trump +4 in Florida.

That Biden +7 poll in PA conducted by Muhlenberg College has an extremely small sample (only 416 LV).

Most credible polls have Biden with a 3-5 point lead in PA.
 
Last edited:
vegas giants said:
Do you cherry pick polls? Be honest
Click to expand...
Lol I went back and deleted that post. Jacks showed polls favoring both sides, only the thread title was cherry picked.

I will say that the New York TImes is cherry picking, big time, with that headline.
 
Chomsky said:
Trump needs FL, Biden needs PA. It's that simple.
Click to expand...
They both need PA, unless Trump can overcome Whitmer's influence in Michigan.

Biden's RCP lead in PA is almost exactly what Clinton's was on 10/24/16. Only I wouldn't count that CNN poll that found Biden up by 5 with RV but up by 10 with LV.
 
Slavister said:
While PA is his most likely path, there ARE other very possible paths for Biden. E.g. here is one via AZ. Or say if TX goes blue, it's all over (even if he loses AZ, PA, WI, and MI).
Click to expand...
Yes, I was speaking in generalities. But let's not forget the states' 'party lean' correlation to each other. If Biden loses PA where he's polling up 6 or 8, why would he be expected to prevail in the more Republican Texas where he's polling behind Trump?

We need to have an understanding of where the individual states lie on the Red-Blue continuum, because they have national correlation to various degrees. So when one state goes to a given candidate, we look at where the state lies on that continuum, and assume it's likely all or most other states further leaning towards the candidate's party will go to him. Now there is variance in correlation between the states, but this gives us a good idea of what's likely to occur.

So again, if Biden loses PA he has numerical paths. But will he have paths in term of the other states' leans? I'm not so sure.
 
Chomsky said:
Yes, I was speaking in generalities. But let's not forget the states' 'party lean' correlation to each other. If Biden loses PA where he's polling up 6 or 8, why would he be expected to prevail in the more Republican Texas where he's polling behind Trump?

We need to have an understanding of where the individual states lie on the Red-Blue continuum, because they have national correlation to various degrees. So when one state goes to a given candidate, we look at where the state lies on that continuum, and assume it's likely all or most other states further leaning towards the candidate's party will go to him. Now there is variance in correlation between the states, but this gives us a good idea of what's likely to occur.

So again, if Biden loses PA he has numerical paths. But will he have paths in term of the other states' leans? I'm not so sure.
Click to expand...

Sound reasoning regarding correlations.

Would this be a similar reasoning though: this cycle, it's widely expected based on the polls that Dems will vote early much more than Republicans, while Republicans will vote much more on Election day. As such, states that have higher general Dem support should be showing higher percentage of early votes (vs say their 2016 vote and/or there 2016 early vote).

Yet we see TX very much far up front on those metrics (second tab).

Then again, so is Montana... darn
 
Slavister said:
Sound reasoning regarding correlations.

Would this be a similar reasoning though: this cycle, it's widely expected based on the polls that Dems will vote early much more than Republicans, while Republicans will vote much more on Election day. As such, states that have higher general Dem support should be showing higher percentage of early votes (vs say their 2016 vote and/or there 2016 early vote).

Yet we see TX very much far up front on those metrics...
Click to expand...
I think the general theory you present is fair, but can't speak to quantitive specifics.

Dems are clearly doing more mail-in voting. But if they're doing significantly more early in-person voting as you claim, we'd expect them to jump to early voting leads in most places - R or D. For example, 40D-60R would be a solid R state. Yet if Dems are doing what you claim at the rate of 3X the Repubs, then that state currently would appear to be a D blow-out by your theory. But I doubt that would be the case.

Anyway, these are merely my opinions. Thanks for sharing yours.

(I do admit Texas results so far are encouraging!)
 
Current 270TOWIN map.

KPYYR.png
 
Where candidates are polling at 50% or better.

XNEvd.png
 
Chomsky said:
I think the general theory you present is fair, but can't speak to quantitive specifics.

Dems are clearly doing more mail-in voting. But if they're doing significantly more early in-person voting as you claim, we'd expect them to jump to early voting leads in most places - R or D. For example, 40D-60R would be a solid R state. Yet if Dems are doing what you claim at the rate of 3X the Repubs, then that state currently would appear to be a D blow-out by your theory. But I doubt that would be the case.

Anyway, these are merely my opinions. Thanks for sharing yours.

(I do admit Texas results so far are encouraging!)
Click to expand...

(To be clear, I never mentioned 3x before.)

Well, we don't know how people voted in early voting. In SOME states we know D vs R votes based on their votes of the past. So far, among (only) 4 swing states that have such stats, PA have many more Ds than Rs (3x in fact). Other 3 (FL, AZ, NV) have a D lead but it's been going down and it's nowhere close to even 2x . In most states though, independents have much larger numbers and would skew all such comparisons, and as we know, there will be some Ds voting Trump and some Rs voting Biden... So, really, we don't know the true D lead in any of the states I think, except maybe PA.
 
Slavister said:
While PA is his most likely path, there ARE other very possible paths for Biden. E.g. here is one via AZ. Or say if TX goes blue, it's all over (even if he loses AZ, PA, WI, and MI).
Click to expand...

True but it's unlikely that he'll lose PA and take TX. getting both is more likely.

The current aggregate polling map shows that with just the states leaning blue today, Biden gets 290. Trump could take all the toss-ups and still lose, including Florida.

Trump has to get all of them, or most, AND take some off Biden. The best coup for him would be to wrest Biden's home state, but that seems much less likely than in 2016.

Untitled.jpg
 
Slavister said:
(To be clear, I never mentioned 3x before.)
Click to expand...
Yeah, I just threw-out an arbitrary number. But in my hypothetical case, even 20 or 30% would appear to be a win in a solid R state.

Well, we don't know how people voted in early voting. In SOME states we know D vs R votes based on their votes of the past. So far, among (only) 4 swing states that have such stats, PA have many more Ds than Rs (3x in fact). Other 3 (FL, AZ, NV) have a D lead but it's been going down and it's nowhere close to even 2x . In most states though, independents have much larger numbers and would skew all such comparisons, and as we know, there will be some Ds voting Trump and some Rs voting Biden... So, really, we don't know the true D lead in any of the states I think, except maybe PA.
Click to expand...
The bolded is what I was getting at. We'd need to examine the previous voting day-by-day record, then extrapolate that with the new numbers. But, we'd still be missing two key elements:

1] What percentage of each party will vote - how & when?

2] What will total turnout be?

This last point (#2) has been the pollster's Achille's Heel from time immortal!
 
Chomsky said:
The bolded is what I was getting at. We'd need to examine the previous voting day-by-day record, then extrapolate that with the new numbers. But, we'd still be missing two key elements:

1] What percentage of each party will vote - how & when?

2] What will total turnout be?

This last point (#2) has been the pollster's Achille's Heel from time immortal!
Click to expand...

Agreed on #1 (though we hope large turnout implies Ds are in good shape).

Here is the thing about #2 though... once we have early vote exceed or even just be close enough to total vote of 2016, you can bet it will be a very large turnout...

As I mentioned on my other thread, many swing states are on track to do just that, with TX running up front, with over 3/4's of total 2016 votes having already voted. That's why I am (likely prematurely) excited about Texas... (indeed, despite 538 not even placing it among "states to watch" list - that's a bug on their site though - I mean, they have Virginia among the "states to watch" dropdown with 99% chance of Biden winning but they don't have TX with currently 65% Trump win?). Also, there was poor polling in TX for much of October. And when 3 polls finally came out a few days ago, they were all either a tie or Biden +1. I am sure pro-Trump-style polls would show him still in the lead though.
 
Last edited:
A pre I am going to kill oil debate moment poll is dated.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Lol I went back and deleted that post. Jacks showed polls favoring both sides, only the thread title was cherry picked.

I will say that the New York TImes is cherry picking, big time, with that headline.
Click to expand...
I think the point was that since you cherry-pick polls, it is very odd for you to criticize anyone for cherry-picking polls.
 
skeptic llc said:
Sad but true. That's Trump's play, and I think for him it's the right one and not at all hopeless.
Click to expand...

It will probably get him PA and Ohio. Drive up to Cleveland and you will see lots and lots of little oil and gas rigs along the highway among the farm fields. The masks until 2022 probably cost him NC that held out on them for a very long time because people hated the idea.
 
Drawdown said:
It will probably get him PA and Ohio. Drive up to Cleveland and you will see lots and lots of little oil and gas rigs along the highway among the farm fields. The masks until 2022 probably cost him NC that held out on them for a very long time because people hated the idea.
Click to expand...
"Held out on them for a very long time"? What exactly is a very long time? And Cooper, who put in place our mask mandate, is pretty far ahead in his polls. So if N. Carolinians like myself were so upset about it, then why would Cooper be winning his bid to remain Governor?

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

North Carolina Governor Polls

The latest political polls collected by FiveThirtyEight.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

en.wikipedia.org

2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Seems that not nearly as many of us are upset about the mandate as you project given that the man who put it in place is looking good for reelection. Heck, some polls show him doing better than he was when it was first put in place.
 
JacksinPA said:


We didn’t expect much in polling today, as most pollsters either released results ahead of the debate or are just now entering the field with their final polling of the cycle. What we did get was … kind of weird. Whatever you make of it, it didn’t do much to change our view of where the race stands.

State polls
POLLSTERMARGINDIFF. FROM ’16 RESULT
Ariz.Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
Oct. 19-22, 500 L.V.		Trump +1
46-47		+3D
Ariz.Basswood Research (Rep. pollster)
Oct. 3-5, 800 L.V.		Even
48-48		+4D
Fla.St. Pete Polls
Oct. 21-22, 2,527 L.V.		Biden +2
49-47		+3D
Fla.Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research
Oct. 20-21, 800 L.V.		Trump +4
46-50		+3R
Ga.Landmark Communications
Oct. 21-21, 500 L.V.		Trump +4
45-49		+1D
Mich.EPIC-MRA
Oct. 15-19, 600 L.V.		Biden +9
48-39		+9D
Mich.Zia Poll
Oct. 11-18, 2,851 L.V.		Trump +4
45-49		+4R
Mont.New York Times/Siena College
Oct. 18-20, 758 L.V.		Trump +6
43-49		+14D
N.C.Meredith College
Oct. 16-19, 732 L.V.		Biden +4
48-44		+8D
N.C.Data for Progress (Dem. pollster)
Oct. 15-18, 929 L.V.		Biden +4
48-44		+8D
Pa.Muhlenberg College
Oct. 13-20, 416 L.V.		Biden +7
51-44		+8D
https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Navigator-Full-Topline-F10.20.2020.pdf+8D
Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. Before we go into the mud, it’s worth flagging that there was one clear exception to our broader characterization: a poll of Pennsylvania from Muhlenberg College showing Joe Biden up by seven points.

Why should you care? Well, for one, Pennsylvania is probably the single most important state in the election. Mr. Biden has a clear lead in the states carried by Hillary Clinton, as well as Michigan and Wisconsin — essentially putting him one decent-size Trump state away from victory. Pennsylvania is Mr. Biden’s best option for that, so if he has a big lead in Pennsylvania, he has a big lead in the race for the presidency. If he doesn’t have a clear lead in Pennsylvania, he doesn’t have a clear lead.
==========================================================
And my wife & I voted for him in PA.
Click to expand...


Of course.....you gotta hand it to them. They've gotta make it look "consistent," eh?


Pa. Supreme Court rules mail-in ballots will count even if signatures don't match


www.washingtontimes.com

Pa. Supreme Court says mail-in ballots will count even if signatures don’t match

Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court ruled Friday that election officials must accept mail-in ballots even if the signatures on them don’t match those on file for a voter.
www.washingtontimes.com www.washingtontimes.com


Fraud will play big-time!
 
Slavister said:
Agreed on #1 (though we hope large turnout implies Ds are in good shape).

Here is the thing about #2 though... once we have early vote exceed or even just be close enough to total vote of 2016, you can bet it will be a very large turnout...

As I mentioned on my other thread, many swing states are on track to do just that, with TX running up front, with over 3/4's of total 2016 votes having already voted. That's why I am (likely prematurely) excited about Texas... (indeed, despite 538 not even placing it among "states to watch" list - that's a bug on their site though - I mean, they have Virginia among the "states to watch" dropdown with 99% chance of Biden winning but they don't have TX with currently 65% Trump win?). Also, there was poor polling in TX for much of October. And when 3 polls finally came out a few days ago, they were all either a tie or Biden +1. I am sure pro-Trump-style polls would show him still in the lead though.
Click to expand...
Well, maybe - maybe not.

While I tend to agree, there's a variable that needs to be accounted for though: The ratio of early voters to election day voters. Did that change? If so, it needs to be applied to the early voting totals. See what I mean?

So yeah, I believe you're right. It feels right. But I can't prove it arithmetically!
 
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